Beat the Streak: Weekend, May 1-3

Zimmerman480BTS.jpg

 

Today’s recommended picks

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
19-G hit streak; opposing Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer: .389 AVG against in ’09

Carlos Lee, OF, Astros
6-for-15 (.400 AVG) lifetime vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe; has reached base in 8 of past 10 G

Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies
4-for-10 (.400 AVG) vs. Giants starter Randy Johnson; .357 AVG vs. left-handers in ’08

Saturday’s recommended picks

David Wright, 3B, Mets
14-for-35 (.400 AVG) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Jamie Moyer; .382 AVG vs. left-handers in ’08

Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
7-for-18 (.389 AVG) lifetime vs. Royals starter Brian Bannister; Bannister: .294 AVG against in ’08

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
9-for-21 (.429 AVG) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Ross Ohlendorf; .346 AVG in ’09

Sunday’s recommended picks

Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
16-G hit streak; .381 AVG in ’09

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers
13-for-37 (.351 AVG) lifetime vs. Indians starter Cliff Lee; .333 AVG vs. left-handers in ’09

Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays
4-for-11 (.364 AVG) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie; .365 AVG in ’09

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

It was another successful day for the BTS leader, baltimore20, who is up to 24 games thanks to the selection of Texas catalyst Ian Kinsler (1-for-4). Four more remain close behind at 23 games, which means we could have a couple of fans across the 25-game plateau by the close of the weekend’s action.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Albert Pujols (STL): 12.4%, 2-for-4
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): 9.1%, 1-for-4
3. Robinson Cano (NYY): 8.5%, 1-for-4
4. Ian Kinsler (TEX): 6.2%, 1-for-4
5. Derek Jeter (NYY): 5.5%, 2-for-4

10 Comments

I was wondering how little the percentage of getting 57 hit streak. Did anybody win 1 million last year from this game??

Nobody has won in the 7, 8, whatever year it is, this game has exsisted. The highest someone got last year was 49.

Well, you can canclulate the odds by determining an average percentage of players who succeed each day and then carrying out that chance through 57 days.

So, as an estimate, let us assume that 65% of all players succeed each day with at least 1 AB. That is right on the fringe of a normal pass/fail definition and seems to align well with my own personal observations.

So, 0.65^57 power = 0.000000000216%

Actually, most players will use a very good player, not an ‘average’ player, therefore the success rate should be somewhat higher. That said, the odds of winning with very good players are about 1 in 90 million. If you identify situations that occur 80% of the time, then your odds increase to about 1 in 344,000. At a 90%, your odds increase greatly to about 1 in 400. Frankly, I am quite surprised that there has not been a winner given the total number of opportunities (streaks started) since inception.

well its not as easy as one might think.
again like the earlier post said, this game has been going on for 6-7 years and the most anyone has done is 49/ lost of pressure.

The weather situation in the north texas area is not good, could have some effect on the Rangers Whitesox games Sat and Sun. nite. i know Sat. games have locked but ya might want to keep this in mind for sundays pick

Chase Utley just ended my hit streak. How do I avoid players as a PH.

if you want to avoid pinch hitters you need to do some research. go to the team websites and find out if a player is going to be starting that day. then you wont have to worry about the player only getting one at bat and screwing you over

Regarding PH, that’s a good point. Anyone know of where to look on team sites to know if player is having a rest day or not? I have heard broadcasters mention that a player will have a day off ‘tomorrow’, so one woud think the roster is made at least 1 day in advance barring late scratches, but where to find that info?
Another thing to look at would be the injury list provided by this site; non-DL related injuries are provided too. If a player (like Delgado yesterday) is sitting out ’cause of aches/pains vs something more serious, he may come in as a PH in the 8th/9th, like he did yesterday and fortunately for 1 on the top 15, he got a hit.

Delgado actually walked, so that guy is even more fortunate, because I don’t think Delgado would have got a hit if he put it in play, but ya never know…and if any player gets a day off, it’s usually gonna be a day game after a night game unless they’re hurting/in a slump, who knows when the manager might give that player a little rest

Aramis Ramirez didn’t play. Do I lose my streak?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: