Beat the Streak Report: Friday, June 19

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Today’s recommended picks

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins
5-for-7 (.714 AVG) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Andy Pettitte

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
17-for-45 (.378 AVG) lifetime vs. D-backs starter Jon Garland

David Wright, 3B, Mets
24-for-59 (.407 AVG) in June

Saturday’s recommended picks

Joe Mauer, C, Twins
19-for-43 (.442 AVG) during 10-G hitting streak

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
Leads AL with .349 AVG

Pablo Sandoval, C/CI Giants
22-for-55 (.400 AVG) in June

Sunday’s recommended picks

Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pirates
22-for-55 (.400 AVG) lifetime at Coors Field

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners
21-for-63 (.333 AVG) in June

David Wright, 3B, Mets
24-for-59 (.407 AVG) in June

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

With his selection of Rangers third baseman Michael Young on Thursday, BTS leader Tanner Nielson extended his streak to a season-high 41 games, putting him just 16 picks away from the $1 million-plus grand prize.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 10.4%, 1-for-5
2. David Wright (NYM): 5.5%, 0-for-4
3. Lance Berkman (HOU): 5.1%, 0-for-4
4. Michael Young (TEX): 4.8%, 2-for5
5. Kevin Youkilis (BOS): 4.7%, 1-for-2

20 Comments

Ichiro: 1st inning single—–> leader is up to 42 games.

good luck tanners

tanners has Ichiro Suzuki today.

I went with Joe Mauer: the night game should ensure that he actually starts and he just rested Thursday, so odds are extremely high that he will be in the starting lineup.

In fact, 11 of the 25 players on page # 1 of the active leaderboard have Ichiro Suzuki and another 8 players have Joe Mauer.

The other 6 selections are: Jason Kubel, Adrian Gonzalez, Torii Hunter, Brian Roberts, Derrek Lee, and Chase Utley.

JM will be in the line-up. I have no doubt but will he be 100%? I think he is still recovering from the flu.

For JM, this is an ideal hitting situation for him but Moehler has been pitching a lot better lately.

For Suzuki, he has gotten 1 hit for last 3 days. Is he slowing down or is he due for big day today? Can he be due for 0-for today?

I think both are very good picks on a day of not so great choices. Those are thoughts that ran through my mind. I knew most people will go with either JM or Suzuki today. I imagined Wildtanners going with Mauer though.

Wildtanners is playing it smart. Think about it, with a streak of 42 he only needs a modest 15 games hitting streak to reach the goal. I think I would ride Ichiro as well. Nobody else is capable of putting together as many 15 game hit streaks as Ichiro. I would take Ichiro at least 80% the rest of the way.

Well I do remember the 49-game hit streak being susceptible to picking Ichiro too much.

If I was tanners though, I would definitely not look at these comments, until the streak ends.

I would not want to be influenced by these comments and then lose because of this advice.

In fact, I would not talk to anyone about the contest at this point.

Do you agree?

Monday is going to be the hardest day since the ones who he might pick are all not playing so if he can get through Monday in tact he may do it.

I don’t think tomorrow is so easy as well. Ichiro is facing a lefty he doesn’t have much experience against. I remember the guy who got to 49 lost picking Ichiro against Kenny Rogers, another lefty. Wandy Rodriguez shuts down lefties so you can’t be overly confident with picking Mauer. I could see him going with Sanchez vs. De La Rosa and even though hes 4-8 ya never know what could happen.

The problem with Sanchez is he CAN’T hit during day games. Look at his #s. He is low .200s during day time.

I am hoping the leaders pick Ichiro tomorrow. Ichiro takedowns is always against a lefty. Last year (spooky93), as mentioned above, was Kenny Rogers. This yr, Choteria was Lillriano.

I wouldn’t pick Mauer either. He is beginning to slump. I know he hit a HR today but HRs are always pitcher’s mistake.

BTW, both of Ichiro’s “hits” today were iffy ones. Justin Upton should had that ball. And that deflector against a pitcher. Those are just lucky shots.

Hi everyone…. Is this btsplayer@yahoo.com a real player? How come you can see his emal? Is he trying to throw us off or something?

If you never picked a screename for yourself, your posts just show your e-mail address instead.

Also, wildtanners today has Freddy Sanchez.

I went with Scott Podsednik.

Sorry, I forgot to include the rest of the Top 5:

paulcmoss84 went with Ichiro Suzuki at 37 games.

crtownse went with Shane Victorino at 36 games.

FROD also went with Freddy Sanchez at 34 games.

rudyandsam made NO SELECTION at 32 games.

And he was not even the only NO SELECTION on the first page of the active leaderboard!

Eyes_on_Me_viii at 24 games also made NO SELECTION!

I cannot fathom how you forget to make a pick, when you are so close to the leaders and have such a rare streak?

Just this week, I also saw a guy with a 6-game HR streak use NO SELECTION as his pick, even though the leader is only at 7.

Especially for a day like today though? Picks almost always lock at 100 PM on Sundays.

I could maybe partially understand if there was a surprise 1230 start today, but even then, I still do not understand that.

leadoff single for Scott Podsednik!

I conquered the “not so easy day.”!!!

champion88 thanks. Although a Sox fan very rarely I pick a Sox player, they are just not consistent enough although Pods has been hot. I went with Jeter. Didnt get a hit yesterday and the opposing pitcher is pretty bad lately. You got a good streak going?

with 4 games on monday, its not a cinch

Wow. Surprised to see Sanchez with 2 hits. I thought maybe he was due for 0-for with his day games bta.

So is everyone riding the D. Lee hitting streak train tomorrow? It would be really funny it it happens to stop on the very day he goes against the pitcher he owns. Vazquez has been lights out for the last 3 starts. Do you dare? He is throwing nothing but smokes.

Champion I definitely agree. If I was Tanners I wouldn’t read the posts and I probaly wouldn’t give interviews either. There is no doubt that once you pass 40 the pressure mounts daily. I remember spooky writing about that last year.

I would definitely look at the suggested picks though, but you can find those from the pick selection menu.

I might also write up some explanation for why I made my pick each day and either send it to the guy who writes the blog or click on comments, close my eyes, scroll to the bottom, and post it there, just so everyone knew how I was making my picks, but still not have it impact my picks.

I also would not go on this blog to send the comment until after the picks locked, so I could prevent it from impacting my thinking.

The mounting pressure is probably why no one has ever won, as the 80-90% chance of success each day drops into the 50s and 60s, which can eliminate streaks quickly.

On the positive side, I convinced 2 of my friends to start playing this contest now!

champion_88, at this point in the streak, I don’t think its the thinking process as more of many factors that are beyond anyone’s control except the players.

I doubt anybody made up to above 30 making foolish picks. If they did, they would have been long gone before that. Picks all look brilliant until they end the streak.

I think it has simply been very easy picking for the last month. Wildtanners & others happened to be riding the streak during that time.

Ichiro or Mauer were nothing like this last yr. Chipper and Berkman were hot very early last yr but they started fizzled too early to help those with long streaks.

I think to a great extent, a lot of this will be based on luck. I am sure there a plenty of others who would be at 44 if not for that one day. And I don’t think having picked the “right” player that day does not make one more skillful at it.

With so many people playing, one player will bound to luck in or out.

Well yeah, luck does play a small factor, but I have always thought that there has to be some magic formula out there, to sustain a streak for that length of time, especially since each year, the leaders squeak out a few more games on top of the old record…a streak that ended last year with only 48, as opposed to the old 49.

Each formula that we use is almost “destined” to work for a certain period of time, before snapping. The key is to figure out a formula that will work for about 60 days, giving you room for a few rainouts and days where your pick does not play.

The other possible key is to be able to identify when your formula is about to crack and then jump to a new formula.

Obviously, either of these keys is extremely difficult to do, but that is how you can win the contest.

The reason I have said that the % chances drop into the 50s and 60s, once one gets above 40, is because you tend to cluster around the same four or five players that have helped you the most over the years.

For example, on a day where you do not have a clear idea of who to go for, you might just fall back on Ichiro, because he is Ichiro and is the only one who racks up that many 15-game hit streaks, whereas Player X might clearly be stronger, even if his name is not as recognizable.

A great example of this idea I think is Andrew McCutchen. If you wanted to pick from the Pirates today and were scared of his .200 daytime average (Has this stat been a career-long trend for him? Fausto Carmona was 8-0 through in day games for the first 3 months last season, but this trend did not carry over until this year,) I think McCutchen is probably hotter right now, but Freddy Sanchez has more name recognition, so you are more likely to pick him.

Now both hitters picked up 2 hits, but that could be the sort of thing where McCutchen comes through and Sanchez has an 0 for Y, where if your streak was smaller you would go with McCutchen, but since your streak is already in the 40s, you fall into the trap of relying only on established veterans, where stronger, but less recognizable options are available.

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