Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, Aug. 14-16

 

 

Manny480BTS.jpg

 

Today’s recommended picks

Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers
.500 AVG (10-for-20) lifetime vs. D-backs starter Dan Haren

Orlando Cabrera, SS, Twins
.351 AVG (34-for-97) during 22-G hitting streak

Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals
.457 AVG (32-for-70) during 17-G hitting streak from July 23-Aug. 12

Saturday’s recommended picks

Orlando Cabrera, SS, Twins
.351 AVG (34-for-97) during 22-G hitting streak

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
.441 AVG (26-for-59) during 16-G hitting streak

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
.455 AVG (15-for-33) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Zach Duke

Sunday’s recommended picks

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
.625 AVG (5-for-8) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Dustin Nippert

Orlando Cabrera, SS, Twins
.545 AVG (6-for-11) lifetime vs. Indians starter Aaron Laffey

Hunter Pence, OF, Astros
.455 AVG (10-for-22) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Braden Looper

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

One day after the third longest streak of the season was snapped, the Top 5 on the BTS leaderboard held steady.

Top dog hammanm tabbed Ichiro Suzuki, who came through with a 1-for-4 day to boost his streak to 38 games. Fourth-place contestant sagtraf2 also went with Ichiro to move up to 34 games.

Hot-hitting Ryan Zimmerman was the choice of second-place holder samolina55 and fifth-place fan nate_14513, who bumped their respective streaks to 37 and 32 games following the Washington third baseman’s 1-for-4 effort.

Third-place contestant Sun_Tenshi went with another sizzling batter in Joe Mauer, receiving a 2-for-4 performance to reach 35 games.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 13.5%, 1-for-4
2. Troy Tulowitzki (COL): 9.3%, 1-for-4
3. Hanley Ramirez (FLA): 8.8%, 2-for-4
4. Derek Jeter (NYY): 5.7%, 2-for-4
5. Michael Young (TEX): 4.9%, 2-for-5

38 Comments

Dragbunt’s Great Experiment – Day #5

As a critic of the “Kings at the Plate” daily advice, I’ve decided that if you can’t beat them you should join them!”

I’ve got a five game streak going now. My pick of the day will come from the “Kings at the Plate” players only. I’m going with Orlando Cabrera for Friday, August 14th.

The Kings of at the Plate choices are poor today. Is the King afraid of giving dragbunt decent advice?

Reasoning:

Orlando Cabrera ? Hot hitter, Twins home game vs. Tribe. He is 1-5 v. Masteson of Tribe, probably a 1-5 game earlier this season. The 1 -5 does not deserve a ?Kings at the Plate? mention even considering that he is on a big hitting streak. I?m going with Cabrera as the best pick of the three players available.

Kevin Youkilis ? Suspended ? His replacement for Kings at the Plate is the Cristian Guzman. Guzman is 2 ? 4 vs. Harang who gives up a lot of hits. BUT ? Harang is a wild card here. I stay away from his games as he can be great one day and a bum the next. He had a good outing last time and this is a Reds home game. I can?t go with Guzman.

Manny Ramirez ? Going up against Dan Haren at AZ. This is a pick to stay away from.

?Life Line? Suggestion from ohwow: Joey Votto ? I will now have to refuse the life line help because Cristain Guzman has replaced Kevin Youkilis as the 3rd King at the Plate for Friday.
Good Luck ohwow! I hope ?The Black Cat? goes 5 for 5!

Thursday?s Results: All —– ?Kings at the Plate? players got hits. Kings at the Plate choices are now 12 for 12 in the four days of my experiment.

Good Luck to all today!
dragbunt

Hello aheiser2,

You are 100% correct. That 16 game streak needs to be protected. Brian McCann was on my list of players that should have been a “King at the Plate” today. As I’ve mentioned in the past, the “Kings at the Plate” information can be sub-par. e.g. Kings at the Plate today mentions that Cristain Guzman has a 17 game hiitting streak from 7/23 to 8/12 with an batting average of .457. What did Guzman do on Thursday 8/13? He went 0 – 4. The king failed to mention this fact. You have to read between the lines when you look at the King’s advice.
dragbunt

This is a really tough day for the kings at the plate… i’m not picking any of them with my 16 streak i’m going with brian McCann who is 6/10 vs Joe Blanton

HR Beat the Streak!
Toughest game of them all for me.
But – We all have inside info on the teams we follow and need to help each other out when we can.
Advice of the day from a Cub Fan.
Wrigley Field is affected by wind conditions tremendously.
Today, Friday 8/14. There is a decent wind blowing from SSW meaning that balls hit to center and left field will carry well. I’m going with Derek Lee today.
dragbunt

they put things like cristian guzman on so nobody will get a streak of 30+ so they don’t have to give away money and prizes

Hi aheiser2,
You are 200% correct about the not wanting to give away the prize money. Giving out less than accurate info on players etc., an omission here or there, second rate picks etc. this is intended to put your thought process on the wrong track. It is our job, as players, to see this and post a comment. No one can win this game alone. But working together can make someone’s chances of winning better.
Here’s another one:
Vernon Wells as a King at the Plate for Saturday. HUH!
OK he seems to hit well v. Scott Kazmir of Rays. But —Kazmir can be a tough lefty. Wells is hitting .309 on the road and game is at Rays. But — Wells bats right but is hitting .221 vs. lefties, his overall batting average is .255 and on astro turf Wells is hitting .218 – Rays have turf. This is not a Kings at the Plate type guy. Again the King is not giving you good information with Wells.
dragbunt

there is 131 people who have streaks of 20 or more.
i person forgot to pick though, he was at 20 games.

for the 20 or more streak, 40 different players were chosen today.
hanley ramirez was chosen by 25, manny ramirez 11, mauer 10, ichiro 9, m young 8, jeter 6, pujols 5, votto 4,
m cabrera and figgins 3
5 players picked twice
23 players picked once

This is going to be one interesting day and night

Cubs 17 Pirates 2 top of the 5th inning – Wild Day at Wrigley Field as the wind is blowing out toward center and left fields. Derek Lee is 3 for 3 so far with 7 RBI’s – two of his hits are doubles! No HR yet!

Wind will be blowing out toward left/center fields on Saturday(8mph S) and Sunday(15mph SSW) at Wrigley Field. These could be wild games filled with HR’s. Derek Lee is hot too!

Local knowledge can be helpful to us all. Guys – when you have it pass it along.
dragbunt

local knowledge from the indians… don’t pick anybody they all suck cause they traded everyone away

Interesting Guys!
Did my negative comments posted above earlier today get to the conscience of the “Kings at the Plate” selector? or did Vernon Wells go on the DL today? Earlier today, Vernon Wells of the Jays, was a King at the Plate for Saturday 8/15. I posted some negative comments on why he was not worthy of this honor. When I looked this afternoon, his name was gone from the Kings at the Plate for Saturday 8/15. Replaced by hot hitting Ryan Zimmerman. There are two other guys that should be Kings at the Plate for Saturday: Chipper Jones and Matt Kemp.
Has the King realized that he needs to give better advice each day? If the answer is yes, I applaud him for standing up and doing the right thing. Long live the King!
I’m asking the King to consider giving me a day to choose the 3 Kings at the Plate for a day next week.
dragbunt

crap! my streak of 16 in is trouble with brian mccann going 0-3 through 5 innings he better get a hit!

crap! my streak of 16 in is trouble with brian mccann going 0-3 through 5 innings he better get a hit!

shake up at the top though.
Manny is still hot against haren 2 for 2 as i write
but samolina is stopped at 37 by zimmerman
Sagtraf at 34 by M Carbera and Nate at 32 by McCann.

so far 11 people over 20 have lost streaks this evening.

I mentioned carl crawford and his crazy numbers against Roy Holliday in another post, and see Crawford went 4-for-4

backrubs – You are the “stat-man!”
Hitting streaks of Ryan Zimmerman and Orlando Cabrera both stopped last night. You were 1,000% correct on Crawford. Also, Manny Ramirez went 3 – 4 vs. Dan Haren.

Dragbunt’s Great Experiment – Day #6

As a critic of the “Kings at the Plate” daily advice, I’ve decided that if you can’t beat them you should join them!”

Orlando Cabrera went 0 ? 4 on Friday so my 5 game streak ended. My pick of the day will come from the “Kings at the Plate” players only. I’m going with Alfonso Soriano for Saturday, August 15th.

Reasoning:

Orlando Cabrera ? His hitting streak ended with a 0-4 last night vs. Tribe. Should do OK today vs. Huff.

Alfonso Soriano ? Having a tough season. He could go 5 ? 5 or 0-5. He has dominated Duke in the past and is a streaky hitter. When your streak is at zero you can throw caution to the wind so I?m going with Soriano. Game is at Wrigley Field too.

Ryan Zimmerman ? His hitting streak ended last night. I would think that has a hit or two in his bat vs. Cueto.

Friday?s Results: 0-4 Orlando Cabrera, 0-4 Cristian Guzman and 3-4 Manny Ramirez.
Kings at the Plate choices are now 13 for 15 in the five days of my experiment.

Good Luck to all today!
dragbunt

Manny Ramirez is 9 for 12 (.750) against Doug Davis in his career. Also, he has been hot in last 7 days with a .455 AVG

How much gold is the “King” sitting on?
I took a look at the prizes for this contest.
Hey the $1million is a great prize. But the prize structure falls off a cliff after the grand prize. A 45 game streak wins a $100 gift certificate. Sounds as cheap as that uncle who always came to your birthday party and ate enough food and drank enough beer as an entire NFL offensive line and gave you a card with $5.00 in it!
King – You can do better than that next year!
Suggestion:
1. Longest streak of the year (must be over 40 games)
$10,000.00
2. 2nd prize for next year (streak must be over 35 games)
$5,000.00
3. 3rd prize for next year(streak must be over 30 games)
$1,000.00
4. Every streak over 25 games next year wins a $25.00 Burger King gift card.
Come on king – share the wealth!
dragbunt

May the baseball gods look down favorably on Joe Mauer’s bat today! The keaders have loaded up on Maurer today.
If he gets a hit, everybody advances.
If he has an 0-fer, the leader board will look as desolate as Hiroshima, Japan did the day after we dropped the atomic bomb!
dragbunt

you are so right about Mauer being the pick today.
Today there are 141 with 20 are more game streaks.
34 took Mauer… 23 took Cabrera…18 took Ichiro…10 took Pujols…7 took Teixeira…5 took Crawford… 4 took H. Ramirez and V. Wells… 8 more players were taken twice…15 were taken once.

Theriot was taken twice and he game is already over and he did have a hit today

I am surprised that ‘old reliable’ Ichiro was take by less than 20 people though. and surprised that no on took Matt Holliday who is hitting over .475 since joining the Cardinals

Ichirio today is facing Sergio Mitre I believe. I’m surprised that Mitre is with Yankees. He at best a journeyman 5th starter. Ichirio should hit him well.
He would have been my choice today but I’m staying within picking one of the three “Kings at the Plate” each day. So I took Alfonso Soriano who went 0 – 4. Choosing from the Kings choices each day is way too confining. Tomorrow will be the end of my “Great Experiment” of selecting one of the Kings choices each day.
Matt Holliday is on fire! He should have been one of the three Kings at the Plate for Saturday. The Kings advice should be reviewed each day but not taken as gospel.
dragbunt

i had soriano picked but went and looked at his season average, which wasnt all that good, i DID change to Matt Holliday before i went to bed last nite

Three guys that have similar hitting lines per game, compared to Ichiro, are Scott Podsednik, Alberto Callaspo, and the aforementioned Alfonso Soriano, arranged in declining order of ability.

I have no idea why Scott Podsednik has not played over the last few days though.

I also have no idea why Alberto Callaspo hits sooo low in the Royals order. The guy goes 3 for 3 and the Royals bump him down another notch in the order. No wonder that franchise is doing sooo terribly.

It has gotten to the point where you know you are only getting 4 AB’s with him max and maybe only 3, but he is the best choice in the Royals’ order.

I am shocked at how many days Alfonso Soriano comes up with a hit. I remember earlier in the season having Soriano hitting .235 and he would still come through with a hit pretty consistently, especially when he is favored.

He must pick up a lot of 1 for 5 games.

Ryan Sweeney is also a good bottom of the order pick like Alberto Callaspo, but there does not seem to be any consistency on when he starts, so if you are not sure he is starting, then he is a risky pick.

White Sox signed Alex Rios (OF) a few days ago and there no longer is room in the OF each day for Scott Podsednik.
Also, White Sox OF Carlos Quentin if off DL and back in LF so now Podsednik plays CF when he is starts, Quentin LF,
Dye RF. Rios must be playing CF and the fact that Rios has a $72M contract pushes him ahead of Podsednik too.

There are much better picks than Alfonso Soriano each day.
Stay away from him. You are right he had played 106 games with 108 hits as of Friday. Better than one hit per game for a guy hitting .245 is remarkable. The fact that he was a King at the Plate on Saturday shows that you can not put much faith in the picks of the King at the Plate choice.

Also, Alfonso Soriano is very streaky……..
He will go on a 20 – 40 hit spree and then sulk back to an 0-20 stretch. He is not an Ichirio guys who will go 1-5, 1-4 etc. It’s all or nothing and this year it’s been mostly nothing. Thats why he is at .245 and not his usual .290.
Watch when he gets hot (if he ever does this year). The down side to this is that you never know when the 4-5 days are going to switch back to the 0-4 days. Very chancey to pick Alfonso Soriano. As a Cub fan, I’ve seen this for a few years now.
I picked him on Sat 8/15 because I’ve been making picks from Kings of the Plate guys only and he was a King at the Plate guy. ALSO my streak was at zero and I had nothing to lose. I watched the game and his first two at bats were poor.
dragbunt

Dragbunt’s Great Experiment ? Day #7 ? Final Day

As a critic of the “Kings at the Plate” daily advice, I’ve decided that if you can’t beat them you should join them!”

Alfonso Soriano went 0 ? 4 on Saturday, not too surprising. My streak remains at zero.
That?s what happens when you pick a guy batting .245!
My pick final pick today in my “Kings at the Plate” experiment will be Orlando Cabrera for Sunday, August 16th.

I took a look at who the ?Kings at the Plate? players are for the next few days. I?m too limited in sticking with the King?s picks. By way of example, Saturday ? My experiment limited my to Zimmerman, Cabrera and Soriano $#@!&*()# – I would have loved to pick Ichirio v. Sergio Mitre.

Ichirio would have been a good ?Kings at the Plate? choice with this as the by line:
Ichirio Suzuki: 6 game hitting streak, .359 season average, Lefty hitters are averaging .500 vs. Mitre this season. Now that is a King at the Plate Choice ? Ichrio went 2 ? 5 v. Mitre.

Reasoning for Sunday August 16th pick:

Hunter Pence – Away game, hitting .248 in August ? pass here
Orlando Cabrera ? Twins at home, Laffey is hit-able. My pick
Dustin Pedroia ? TX pitcher, Dustin Nippert is tough at home with ERA of 0.96 ? pass herePedroia had an 0 -4 on Saturday ? he could get the day off on Sunday.

Saturday Results: Alfonso Soriano 0 – 4, Ryan Zimmerman 2-5 and Orlando Carbera 2-5
Kings at the Plate choices are now 15 for 18 in the six days of my experiment.

Good Luck to all today!
dragbunt

HR Beat the Streak alert!
The wind is blowing big time from the SSW today in Chicago.
This means balls hit to left and center at Wrigley Field will carry very well. Normal outs become HR’s on this kind of day. Even the pitchers are HR threats today.
I’m going with Derek Lee in HR Beat the Streak today.
dragbunt

149 with 20 or more…. saw a few with both Hanley Ramirez and Todd Helton, hope that know their players need hits in BOTH GAMES to continue the streak.
pedroia-25….ichiro-24…..mauer-16…..Jeter-10…..pence-7… Holliday, pujols, MCabrera, OCabrera, all 4 picks

Well that was anti-climatic.

Everybody hits.

Update on Ichiro

With his sixth-inning single today, Ichiro has hit in 98 of 109 games he has played in this year (he was out most of April with injury). This is just under a 90 percent success rate.

90 percent is scary high. Given this success ratio, there’s an over 80% chance that Ichiro will get a hit in his next two games, much less his next game. And for the ultimate prize – taking 90% and elevating it to the 57th power – there’s a 1 in 405 chance that Ichiro will hit in 57 straight (assuming that he continues at a 90 per cent clip).

As a contrast, I took the top 15 players picked every day for this season. Dropping out the ‘did-not-play 0-for-0′ players, the top 15 picks are successful in getting at least one hit 74 per cent of the time. If you take a 74% success ratio, and raise it to the 57th power – there’s a 1 in 28,430,990 chance of successfully beating the streak.

My own picks (including my tempting of fate and taking Joey “The Black Cat” Votto last Friday) have been successful 72 per cent of the time. In other words, I should probably just pick Ichiro against right handers and against left handers, against Cy Young award winners and against rookies with control issues, in day games and in night games.

Ichiro has not failed to get a hit in two consecutive games this year. His streaks have been 3, 1, 5, 5 (at this point, he was at 78%), 27 (bringing him to 91% success), 8, 12, 13, 2, 7, 7, and, after his hit today (Sun 8/16) 8.

Monday is going to be interesting.
they have a kings of the plate aubrey huff,who is doing okay against a pitcher but a seaon average close to .255 but leaves off team mate brian roberts who is 9-for-27 against ervin santana.
With seattle not playing on monday, these picks become even more fun to see who is picked where

The Ichirio Every Day Theory
Your tough days would be on days when Seattle is off and you have to pick another player to keep the streak intact.
This would be 2,3 or 4 days in between “The Little Magician’s” 57 game hit streak.
dragbunt

watch this because the games for monday LOCK at 4E and 1P.
discussion on monday?? and picking?

Take a look at the Yankee game for Monday.
Vin Mazzaro pitcher for A’s gives up alot of hits.
His August ERA is 7.04 and righty and lefty batters are both hitting over .310 against him.
Jeter or Damon would be good picks.
I’m trying to decide between them.
Damon was 0 – 4 on Sunday
backrub62 – You are right on target with the “Kings at the Plate” picks for Monday. As usual, the king has given us less than excellent information. Taking a look at the kings picks is a smart thing to do – then look out from there. Roberts would make more sense as a “King at the Plate” for Monday. Remember – Roberts is not bashful about taking a walk or leaning into a pitch to get hit. Roberts would consider it a good day if he walked twice, got him by a pitch and flew out twice. But for us, that makes it a 0 – 2 day and your streak is again at zero.
dragbunt

Pedroia & Mauer were both mediocre picks for today. If you look at the #s closely, you will see they were not the best picks. Even during the hot month of August, Mauer is only hitting .300 against the lefties. And in fact, Mauer didn’t get the hit off the starter. He got it off the righty reliver on his last at bat. Top 5s days are numbered. Watch for the crumbling in next few days.

BTW, chamipin_88, where have you been?

King picks are mostly useless. I can give better picks than that while smoking crack all day. First, you simply CANNOT give best picks 7 days in advance. This is ridiculous.

What is deceiving is that King picks come through often enough to delude you into thinking its worth a piss pan. Remember, getting it right 80% of the time means jack. You only need one mishap to send you back down to the BTS gutter of fat zero.

I don’t think there is any nefarious intention in the picks. I think the picker simply don’t care. He doesn’t get paid more for making better picks so he just chooses what looks good in 5 minutes of quick research before he lets out the fart from Burger King ******* he had for lunch. But at the same time, he definitely leads amateur pickers astray. Come on, Hunter Pence today. Big deal that he as good #s off Braden. Pence has been in a 2 month slump. Lastly, most deluding thing of all is the batter v. pitcher avg. That really sucks in lots of loser picks.

i think the kings players are posted when all or most of the pitchers are known for that given day. i even like to see whats coming up and then go compare them.
Monday is going to he a hard one, that is for sure.
Right now im leaning toward Chipper who is 4 for 6 against Max Scherer of arizona. still cant forget Holliday in St Louis who is still batting better than 450 since being traded……
With DAVID WRIGHT going down, there isnt anything left on the NY METS to chose from either.
Mauer in Texas against the Rangers staff the next 4 nights could prove to be interesting. Rangers Young seems to have bounced back after the mini slump from a week ago.

WHO KNOWS!?!?!?!
this is why we play the game

You know what’s funny. Mazzaro isn’t even pitching on Monday anymore. The A’s called up Tomko to start against the Yankees so that point is moot for Mazzaro.

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