Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, Aug. 19

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Today’s recommended picks

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers
.500 AVG (5-for-10) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Ian Snell

Lyle Overbay, 1B, Blue Jays
.714 AVG (5-for-7) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz

A.J. Pierzynski, C, White Sox
.432 AVG (16-for-37) lifetime vs. Royals starter Zack Greinke

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

The march to 56 continued for hammanm, who pushed his streak to 43 games when Ichiro Suzuki collected the first of his four hits yesterday. The BTS leader is just two games shy of the season record set by Tanner Nielsen.

Further underscoring hammanm’s amazing staying power, the two contestants directly behind him in the standings both found themselves starting from scratch at the conclusion of the day’s action. For Sun_Tenshi, who put together an impressive 39-game streak, the end came when Felipe Lopez finished 0-for-4 vs. the Pirates. jprin30571, who was up to 35 games, bid farewell to the streak following a 0-for-4 effort from Mark Teixiera.

As a result, Topiary took over second place at 34 games thanks to three more hits from Joe Mauer. nicklarsen84, who also went with Minnesota’s amazing backstop, moved up to third place at 32 games.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 12.8%, 4-for-5
2. Alex Rios (CWS): 5.5%, 1-for-4
3. Chipper Jones (ATL): 3.7%, 0-for-3
4. Joe Mauer (MIN): 3.6%, 3-for-5
5. Hanley Ramirez (FLA): 3.6%, 3-for-5

18 Comments

LEADERS STREAK AT 43 GAMES………………..
Postion A: PUT THE 43 GAME STREAK ON CRUSIE CONTROL How much luck/skill is left in the leaders gas tank? Can “The Little Magician” hit in the next 14 games to take him to 57 if he puts his streak on auto-pilot? 90% CHANCE OF BEATING THE STREAK(?)
POSITION B: I’VE PICKED SUCCESSFULLY IN 43 GAMES.
I KNOW I CAN DO IT FOR 14 MORE GAMES. 80% CHANCE OF BEATING THE STREAK(?)
The road to a 57 game hit streak is littered with bodies of players who felt they could beat the game with selection skill. Is lady luck on the side of th leader or will he crash and burn off an event beyond his control? – e.g. Mauer doesn’t start but pinch hits and makes on out, illness forces Hanley Ramirez to leave a game(again).
Classic match up tonight:
Justin Verlander v. Ichirio “The Little Magician”
Verlander – takes the mound at home coming off a good performance v. Red Sox. His ERA for August is +4.00 though. Ichirio hasn’t hit him well this year.
“The Little Magician” – He is hotter than Phoenix AZ on the fourth of July. Four hits last night. He is a gamer: Plays every inning of every game. He had an off day on Monday he is rested and his batteries are super charged.
I think that there is a hit in Ichrio’s bat tonight. I’ve locked the “The Little Magician” as my pick of the day.
dragbunt

Ichiro has now hit in 99 of 110 games. That is exactly 90%.

If you take 90% and raise it to the 14th power, there is a 22% chance of Ichiro getting 14 in a row, assuming the validity of the 90%. That’s still way less than even money, but it is a ‘fighting chance’. Keep in mind that Ichiro has a 27 game hitting streak this year – aside from that 27 game streak, he does not have any streak of longer than 14. It is more likely than not that Ichiro is not successful for the next 14 days.

A more ‘standard’ number is 75%, which is close to the conversion rate of the top 15 hitters chosen. Significant players like Mauer and Hanley Ramirez are in the 75-80% range. Using 75% as the daily likelihood of success, there’s a 1.8% percent chance of picking the next 14 correct.

As for me, I haven’t picked 14 consecutive hitters correctly all season. I’ve picked 13 twice and had my streak snapped. It is by no means assured, or even likely, that our current leader will pass Joe D. But even a 1.8% chance at the grand prize is interesting, much less a 22% chance using the 90% achieved by focusing on Ichiro.

It really is lady luck.. of course Ichiro is the best pick on most nights.. but even he isnt superman… Ive had 9 streaks of 10 or more this season when picking ahead… after looking and analyzing my picks.. im betting im lucky if i hit 75%… thats with Ichiro zone.. he can’t get a hit forever.. although it seems like he will.. good luck hamman.. because if your guy doesnt get a hit in bat # 1… your very nervous the rest of the night.

The leaders went with Mauer. I think TX will pitch around Mauer today. They are in the chase for the wild card spot and these games actually mean something to them. Last 2 nights, Mauer burned them so badly and it cost them the game last night.

I know its not easy pitching around Mauer with Morneau batting next spot. Wouldn’t you do the same? It seems anything down the middle Mauer will crush it.

Texas wont do that, cuz if that were the case, they would have done it last nite as well. morneau was out last night due to an inner ear infection that took him out of Monday;s gfame because of dizziness.
====================================
dragbunt. ichiro is 1-for4 against verlander in their only game against each other this year

196 people with streaks of 20 or more…..574 people are at 19 or more…. Only one person over 20 forgot to pick….
now for the fun numbers…………Jeter 44…. Mauer 35…. HRamirez 15…. Ichiro 14…. Polanco 12…..MCabrera 10… Pujols 9…. Overbey 7…..A.J. Pierzynski7…. Braun 6….. Crawford 6…. Figgins 4…. Helton 3….. THunter 2… 13 players picked once
—————————————————————–

Have fun watching the games tonight. now can anyone tell me why the KC-CWS game today is a day game, even though its a get away day, both teams are OFF tomorrow.
makes no sense!!!!!!

Backrubs – Good point about the KC-WSox game in Chicago.
IS there a MLB dictate on game times on “get away days” even if teams are off the next day?
White Sox always play night games during the week.
There are some huge thunder storms coming into the Chicago area as I type. Had they played a night game the rains coming would have probably washed the game out.
The Kings at the Plate pick Pierczynski went 0 – 4.
Ohwow – Thanks for the math analysis. Breaking it down for those of us who are number challenged:
Going with Ichirio – I put 100 ping-pong balls in a hat and 22 are black and 78 are white. I must pick a black ball out for 14 days in a row to win the Grand Prize.
Going with your own pick of the day from the best guys:
100 ping pong balls in the hat, 2 balls are black and 98 are white and I must pick out a black ball each day for 14 days.
Sounds like going with “The Little Magician” makes sense.
Leader went with Mauer – I wonder if he reads this comments section of the web site?
dragbunt

well you have to admit, its tough not to pick mauer right now especially since he has hit OVER .500 the past week. This is one reason i picked Mauer tonight.

they like the get away games to be day games if a team is playing the next day. but since neither team isnt playing. why play in the day time,

Unless they are good at seeing rain coming into play a year in advance cuz they work on making that schedule year round. Boy would i like to sit in on that for a week or so and watch or help.

dragbunt – not every day for 14 days.

What I am saying is that if you pick Ichiro every day for the next 14 days, you have a 22% chance of having a 14 game hitting streak.

If you pick a player that is 75% successful every day, you have a 1.8% chance of having a 14 game hitting streak two weeks from now.

Think of it this way. 14 game hitting streaks are common. There are thousands of entrants in the game right now who have them. Most entrants in this contest will have had a 14 game streak at some time during the season (there is a 1.8% chance, and 150 or so chances to start such a streak).

The way you are wording it – that you have a 22% chance every day – is not quite right. What I am saying is that, if Ichiro’s 90% is real, there is a 22% chance that our leader can get to 57 simply by picking Ichiro. This would make his or her entry have an expected value of 22% of $1.5 million – making it worth six figures as it stands right now.

I wonder if the contest would offer a ‘Deal or No Deal’ option. I think that would be pretty interesting to see.

ohwow – Got it on the odds!
“The Little Magician” goes yard off Verlander! – YES
dragbunt

Joe Mauer KOed. I think the account associate at the insurance company just sighed a huge gasp of relief.

Warning signs were there as I posted yesterday. Millwood pitches well against right handed bats. JM has been way too hot. This was not unforseeable. All those HR swings can mess up your timing.

And lastly, why pitch to JM. He is worst than Pujols ever was this yr.

The leader better hope for a tie in the bottom of the 9th by TX.

well, what a fun run it has been. 43 is no more and the leader is back in the 30s somewhere.
Hanley Ramirez got his hit on a 2-2 count in the ninth inning with two outs, no less. 56 people have lost streaks today with Mauer going 0-for-3 with two walks.

YES! Should have ended earlier this week anyway.

So is Ichiro good for tomorrow or what? DAY game but I am very suspicious. Washburn has been uncharacteristically tough against the lefties this season. He was owned by lefties last year but its all part of new Washburn.

You know everyone, including their dog, will be hitting the Ichie tomorrow. I am gonna try to find someone else first. It would be a total destruction of the BTS board if he doesn’t come through. I would dare to guess it will end the season with no grand prize winners this year.

With Mauer beating me tonight. I root for no winner; and I doubt there will be any. I want that million dollar prize to be up there next year too.

I had Ichiro, but second guessed the pick and i lost a 16 game streak,. the longest for me this year.

I notice in the late games Pujols also went hitless
so counting the 56 who lost in the early games and the 9 from Pujols, that makes 65 out of 196 people losing streaks tonight. thats a hit of 30 percent of people with streaks over 20…….. GONE in one night. Course it didnt help that the Rangers WALKED Mauer Intentionally twice in the game either.

I’ve picked Joe Mauer a total of 1 time this year. Picking a player that gets intentionally walked.. and has a hell of an eye.. isnt worth taking… you might as well take Jack Cust.. who walks more than he hits.

Ichiro on the other hand.. never walks.. never gets intentionally walked.. you do the math.. averages 4.5 at bats a game… math is easy. iVE GOT Ichiro today.. remember Ichiro has seen Washburn pitch… for the last 5 years.. and Ichiro isnt stupid.. going to see The Mariners this weekend… will probably take him each and every game haha Jays lose again. what a surprise.

HEY – Wake UP!
The guy who updates this each must have over slept!

Games start at 12:35am Eastern and it’s 12:20am and I typing on the Page for Wed 8/19.

I going with Ichirio today! Day Game vs. a tough lefty in Washburn but Ichirio is on a tear!
backrubs – Stop second guessing yourself. Make your pick and post it like I do and forget about it.
dragbunt

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