Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, Sept. 10

Hill480BTS.jpg

 

Today’s recommended picks

Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays
.467 AVG (7-for-15) lifetime vs. Twins starter Scott Baker

Carlos Lee, OF, Astros
.444 AVG (8-for-18) since ’04 vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe

Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies
.391 AVG (9-for-23) since ’04 vs. Nationals starter Livan Hernandez

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

When Matt Holliday attempted to beat out a grounder to third in the third inning of yesterday’s action, he tripped over first base and suffered a nasty bruise.

However, it’s likely the pain he felt paled in comparison to that experienced by the BTS front-runners.

Holliday was pulled a couple of innings later, his day ending with a sacrifice fly and no hits over two plate appearances. Remarkably, that snapped the streaks of each of the Top 5 placeholders in the BTS standings. All five of those fans had compiled streaks of at least 35 games, with the leader, tshalterman, bowing out at 41.

And so, the next round of leaders will look to carry the torch with time running out to topple Joe D.’s magic No. 56. Johnyn and willisbran take over the top spot at 35 games, enronshorttrader and justindoak27 share third place at 32 games and grillmastr rounds out the new Top 5 at 31 games.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Matt Holliday (STL): 13.6%, 0-for-1
2. Derek Jeter (NYY): 6.3%, 3-for-4
3. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 5.6%, 1-for-5
4. Dustin Pedroia (BOS): 5.3%, 2-for-5
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): 3.8%, 1-for-3

41 Comments

After Mauer 0-4 this afternoon, only 2 left with a shot at 57.

I don’t know if BTS mgmt actually reads these or if the blog ppl forward suggestions upwards, but if they do….
A few weeks back ppl were talking about how to level the playing field when you happened to pick someone that ended up getting 1 AB (at bat) as a pinch hitter. Unfair in everyone’s mind I am sure.
This being my 1st year, I too got burned by it and was wondering if there wasn’t a relatively easy way that BTS can help prevent such occurrences. Here’s my idea. Are you listening BTS programmers?
What if we could change our selection up to the scheduled start time for the game of our picked player. The line ups are posted on MLB gameday at least 1/2 hour before game time. If I picked Jeter and then later found out he is not in the line up, a pinch hitting role may be possible. Well I sure wouldn’t have picked him if I knew he wasn’t in the line up. But if BTS would allow us to change our picks to another player on the same team, we could opt to stay with our selection hoping he wouldn’t bat or choose another in the line up.
The above suggestion wouldn’t cover all cases, but it would cover a majority of the cases. For example, if Jeter was scratched a few minutes prior to game time, we wouldn’t have that information in time to change our pick. But unless you are privvy to a manager’s line up befroe the BTS selection is locked, we fall victim to circumstances that may otherwise be in our control.Thoughts?

With the above being said, keep in mind that Joe D himself, never got less than 2 ABs during his streak. So, BTS, let’s level the playing field. What do you say?

Choosing Mauer today in a day game v. a lefty did not seem to make sense to me. Also, Morneau had an 0-fer. Span did have a hit as did Cuddyer(R).

lavolpevb – This game is a huge enterprise. Today for example, it’s Thursday and the update we are blogging over is Wednesday, Sept. 9th. No update was posted on Wednesday at all. So when the update was done, the KING failed to skip Wed and move to Thursday. If the powers to be can not get the blog right, there is no way that a very complex process of what you proposed in your message could be done.
Locking the system before the first game of the day is easy to do. To set up to 15 different locking times each day would seem impossible and/or too expensive to do.
What you have to also realize is that this is another way to make winning more remote. Again, the KING wins here.
The chances of winning this game goes like this:
Fill up the mansion of multi-millionaire player, say Manny Ramirez, with white ping-pong balls. Now paint one ping-pong ball red and mix it in with the white balls. Now, you as the player, have one chance to reach into a hole in the roof and if you pick out the red ball you win! Thats about the odds of winning this game.
Analogy: When you see a movie and 3 guys are kicking the crap out of one guy and the guy on the ground gets beaten to a pulp. Now just before the 3 guys walk away, one of them delivers one more kick to the stomach of the guy on the ground. The 3 guys are the king here and we are the guy on the ground.
dragbunt

dragbunt, actually what I proposed is easy to do. I’m a programmer myself. Each of the game starts are known well in advance and can be added to the BTS database if not already there. But, there is one situation that would need special attention: a game starts earlier than scheduled (say due to weather), in which case BTS would have to reset the start time in their database so someone couldn’t go in a change their selection to someone that has already batted and got a hit. Rain delays wouldn’t apply since the game is starting after the scheduled time.
I know the odds of winning are large else it would have been won in the 1st or 2nd year after BTS started. I am not one to complain that it’s “too hard”. I actually enjoy the challenge.

Always pick a player from a game within 45 minutes of the first game of the day. Lineups are always posted within about an hour of the start.

Catchers tend to get rested more often than others – don’t pick a catcher.

One thing you can’t control is injuries or someone getting tossed. I lost a double digit streak last year when Beltran got tossed for arguing balls and strikes. A lot of people got burned when Holliday got hurt yesterday including a guy with a 6 homer streak.

That is an obvious solution to not picking a potential pinch hitter. But you are serioulsy limiting your picks. If the 1st game was Pirates & Reds, hmmm….
And I am also a die-hard Cubbie fan. Many times I wanted to pick Theriot, but Lou plays him anywhere from 1st to 7th batter. Don’t generally want to pick a 7th place batter in a home game do we?
Injuries and toss-outs are a wild card, admitted. But with some minor tweaks to the scripts and code the BTS ppl developed, what I suggested is completely do-able.

So who for tomorrow? I have some hesitations about Ichie tomorrow with Millwood pitching. I guess it all depends on how he does tonight. If he 0-fors tonight, he might actually be slumping for the first time season. I know he does not have Weaver’s numbers and Weaver pitched very well last night with 11ks but he Ichie had a lot of swing through strikes yesterday.

I guess Tanner will take the consolation prize this year. I think they need to make the second prize a lot more sweeter. 100K instead of 10K with a minimum streak of 45 seems fair. This will make the game more interesting for all of us. Come on, what is extra 90K? That is half day’s work for A-roid.

Friday 9/11……..
Hanley Ramirez rates a look v. NATS Martin – HR had a HR v. Martin on 9/6. 1-3 lifetime v. Martin. HR is batting .381 over last 30 days and got 2 hits so far on Thurs. Game in FLA.
Derek Jeter v. O’s Tillman looks promising too. Tillman has never faced Jeter but his avg. V. righties is .355. DJ needs on more hit to pass Lou Gehrig and game is at NY.
Ichirio v. Millwood is a tough call.
lavolpevb – If you are a programmer and say it can be done, I say the KING should do this to give us a fighting chance.

*** Forecast in the Bronx is very bad through Saturday ***

Anyone like Seth Smith for tomorrow????

Ichie strikes out first 2 at bats. Hmmmm.

“dragbunt, actually what I proposed is easy to do. I’m a programmer myself. Each of the game starts are known well in advance and can be added to the BTS database if not already there. But, there is one situation that would need special attention: a game starts earlier than scheduled (say due to weather), in which case BTS would have to reset the start time in their database so someone couldn’t go in a change their selection to someone that has already batted and got a hit. Rain delays wouldn’t apply since the game is starting after the scheduled time.”

Well, the only time a game starts earlier than expected is if they are trying to squeeze it in before a tropical storm/hurricane arrives.

I remember the Orioles did this one year, where like the entire town was all boarded up and they insisted on playing and moved the start time up from 705 or something to 105. They just barely got in a game, with the final coming after 5 innings.

Playing in that game must have had such a surreal feel though. I wish I could have been there, but would have been upset that it was cancelled early. I am the kind of guy who loves to play through/experience extreme weather.

There has been a glitch before in BTS, but the only one I caught happened at the tail end of the season and I only had a 2-game hit streak at the time, so it made no difference, but I noticed after my game that the “Change Pick” option was still highlighted and I changed my pick to someone who I know got a hit and it worked!

That was back under the old style’s setup, so I am thinking it was ~2003-2005.

The setup, even from my point of view who has only limited experience in very amateur programming, would still be very easy. Each player from each team would get assigned a #, say from 1-30. Then, for each day’s games, all the players with codes of 2 and 6 for example would lock at time A and all the players with codes of 4 and 26 would lock at time B, etc.

It would really just be adding another subdivision of code for each of the 180-185 days on the schedule each year, but considering they do not even open the contest until the end of March and the schedules last year were unveiled for most teams way back in late September, I am sure there is plenty of time for the programmers to get everything done.

“Always pick a player from a game within 45 minutes of the first game of the day. Lineups are always posted within about an hour of the start.”

Yeah, but that is ridiculous. You would be losing Ichiro for like 2/3 of the season and up until this series against the Angels, he had been employing a 90% success rate. I mean, we all know he is going to play, but there are still lots of good options in the 60-80% range, that you might be missing out on.

“That is an obvious solution to not picking a potential pinch hitter. But you are serioulsy limiting your picks. If the 1st game was Pirates & Reds, hmmm….

And I am also a die-hard Cubbie fan. Many times I wanted to pick Theriot, but Lou plays him anywhere from 1st to 7th batter. Don’t generally want to pick a 7th place batter in a home game do we?”

For the Pirates I would have picked Freddy Sanchez before he was traded. I actually used him quite a few times during the year. And Andrew McCutchen for a few weeks at a time.

For the Reds I had used Joey Votto a lot in the beginning of the year. I think the last time I used him was when he got tossed for arguing balls and strikes and went 0 for 1 on the last day before the All-Star break, but I am not sure if I ended up going with him or just had him on my list of people to pick.

“And I am also a die-hard Cubbie fan. Many times I wanted to pick Theriot, but Lou plays him anywhere from 1st to 7th batter. Don’t generally want to pick a 7th place batter in a home game do we?”

Well I have used/considered Alberto Callaspo and Ryan Sweeney for much of the year and they normally bat in the bottom third of the order. In fact, the Callaspo situation was ridiculous! Every time, his average went up, he got dropped another spot in the order! He went from hitting 5th to hitting 8th in a matter of a few weeks-a month.

Both guys have FINALLY been moved up to third now, but it took until like late August for that to happen.

Rain in NY means – no game, short game, Jeter slips and leaves the game with a muscle strain = stay away. O’s Tillman is hittable but too many unknowns loom.
I was looking at Seth Smith and he should get a hit off emergency starter Mujica and SD bullpen. Game at SD.
Smith hitting .264 in away games, .447 in Sept, .373 in last 30 days.
Hanley Ramirez 3 – 6 on Thursday, game in FLA v. NATS Martin has been OK recently, NATS pen is weak.
HR hitting .381 in Sept and .387 in last 30 days.
I’m going with HR.
dragbunt

“Rain in NY means – no game, short game, Jeter slips and leaves the game with a muscle strain = stay away. O’s Tillman is hittable but too many unknowns loom.”

It is 9-11 in NY. There is NO WAY that game gets rained out. They will delay for 5 hours to get the game in on 9-11 or play through it. The Yankees rain out for the wimpiest of scenarios. I have seen them call a game at 430 PM when it was not even raining yet and it never ended up raining!

Not to mention the 2008 Opening Day where they delayed for 1.5 hours and made us sit in the stands, only to call the game, when it was only drizzling out, when it had been raining way harder as we went to the park AND they made up the game as a night game the next day!

But not for 9-11. They will play through the pouring rain to get the game in, because of the history and appropriate atmosphere and the fact that some type of memorial is probably planned before the game.

Also, the forecasts for NY have improved since last night. It only looks like a normal rainy day now, instead of a washout.

Have to agree with dragbunt on this one….stay away from the Yankee game. champion_88 is right – being that it’s 9/11 there will be memorials, etc. But…as a native and lifelong Yankee fan, I would rather see Jeter do this any other day.

dragbunt – you spooked me – will go with Ramirez…also hitting .387 in away games.. :)

Ichie 0-fer last night…..

Enronshorttrader is the last one left with a shot at 57.

9/11 in NY has to be a tough day. God Bless!
Pearl Harbor Day was Dec 7, 1941 – on the 8th anniversary of this day it was 1949 and WW 2 was over for 4 years. Now 8 years after 9/11 we are still facing threats from this new “warfare in the shadows enemy.”

teampeanut – You switching to HRamirez has put the pressure on me for today. I’m crossing my fingers.
The two leaders took Joe Mauer today. I forgot his info for the day – he was not on my radar screen.
Cubs Derrek Lee got a hit in the afternoon game in Chgo today.

HRamirez HR’s in 1st – teampeanut who do you like on Sat?

Report on today’s Cub v. Reds game….
I watched on TV:
—Aramis Ramirez of Cubs is hot as is Derrek Lee.
—Joey “The Black Cat” Votto – struck out 3 times in the game. Cub announcer, Bob Brenley, former catcher and guy who managed AZ to a World Series victory a few yrs ago commented each time Votto stuck out that he looks totally out of sinc at the plate. Votto looked like a AL pitcher batting in an interleague game. When I was a kid we used to say: “He’s swinging like a rusty gate.”
Jeter v. O’s lefty Matusz on Sat. Day game, in NY, Jeter kills lefties and Matusz is no CC Sabathia.
HRamirez looks good v. Marco Estrada of NATS & thier bullpen.
Derrek Lee CUBS v. Johnnie Cuteo REDS is tempting too.
Lee is 8 – 22 v. Cueto. Game is in CHGO.
Any other ideas?
dragbunt

I was thinking of Erick Aybar. He’s hitting .385 the past week and has decent numbers against Danks. His last outing was good but LAA continues their high hitting games. Has pitched against LAA twice this year and they got 9 hits off him most recently (8/6) – Aybar went 3-for-4 during that game. His record is not horrible at all but I think Aybar can hit off him. Aybar’s also coming out a bad slump and hopefully will continue to hit.

Not to sounds cliche but my other choice is Jeter. Just got his second hit of the evening. I’m glad I was wrong. :)

I will miss this game during the offseason. Never knew about it until July – my brother got me hooked. :)

hay was sup guys havent been here for a while and it seems that we got to wait for next year to see if anybody going ot break this hopefully its me :].good luck to all and whoo ever plays fantasy football at least we got that to look for lol hit me up at @btsron or in my gmail btsron@gmail.com .

I like Jeter getting a hit v. O’s Lefty Matusz
Jeter batting .417 v. lefties, game in NY
Eyebar looks good but I’ve never picked a guy who bats 9th.
champion_88, hammann, bts player any ideas?
Hope the guy who updates the blog isn’t a victim of MLB employee down sizing?
Good luck to all today…………….
dragbunt

Wow. THREE doubleheaders tomorrow. That fries some good BTS picks. I went through them quickly and it seems Ichie is still the best pick. This is all dependent on whether how he hits tonight though. If he does not hit tonight, he is officially in slump. You know that day game (1) will be given. Night game (2)’s Hunter is easily hittable for a good lefty like Ichie.

Doubleheaders are crazy and I’ve never picked a player in a doubleheader.
How about Hanley Ramirez v. NATS Lefty Lannan?
Ramirez batting .362 in day games, .309 v. Lefties and .337 at home (game is at FL)
Lannan – .262 v. Righties, ERA of 7.33 over last 30 days, plus game should go to NATS bullpen.
It is a tough picking day.

We have lamented how the KING has advantages over btrs players. Well, here is a way to strike back! If you do not like anyone on Sunday, skip the day by picking a player that is hurt, but not on the DL. Therefore the player’s name appears as a potential pick — we know he will not play. You can skip the day by doing this. I’m thinking of one name that qualifies for this distinction but — if I post the name will the King take his name off the player list of that team?
New thought………….
Meaningless game(makes me wonder)
Sunday – Sept 14th KC v. CLEVELAND
Billy Butler KC is hot .444 over last 30 days and over .500 over past week v. Carlos Carrasco(R) in his two starts he has been shelled. ERA 12.38 – righties are hitting .479 v. him. Only negative is Butler is hitting .247 in away games but he got a hit in Cleveland on Friday and Saturday. I’ve never taken a KC player yet. Sunday could be the day!
dragbunt

I noticed that awhile ago – being able to pick a player who we know won’t play but is not on the DL. Hate to be the devil’s advocate but that shouldn’t be allowed – it’s a flaw in the game that allows people to cheat. Why should someone get a free pass when the rest of us are actually playing.

I have Ramirez today and he’s having a great day so far. The lone leader has him as well – lives to play another day… :)

teampeanut – Remember the world series game when Kirk Gibson was injured and dragged himself up to the plate and hit a game winning HR. Injured players do play when the team feels it must have their bat at the plate or glove in the field. Gibson should not have played but he did.
The KING can not even update th blog on a daily basis let alone determine who is fit to play or not to play each day. That is the determination of each team.
Calling this cheating is strong terminolgy. If I could break into the game make a selection after a game started — that would be cheating big time. Choosing a player who probably won’t play is a stratgy that could work or bakfire on you.
In HR Beat the Streak – I’m lobbying for pitchers to be included – I’d love to be able to take Cubs Carlos Zambrano but his name does not appear – is that fair?
On to Monday – teampeanut who do you like?
dragbunt

Monday 9/14……..
Derrek Lee of Cubs looks promising v. Jeff Suppan MIL.
Any other ideas?

I like D Lee as well. On Friday I had him picked for Monday.

i will beat the streak this year !!!!!!! thats wat i been telling myself the past 3 years new years day lol. hopefully it will come thro 2010. this fantasy game truely shows you cant never bet on a baseball game holy cow. the truth is ichiro as your pick 70 80 percent aint going to cut it.picking top of the orders guys doesnt work. picking hot hitter doesnt work. picking against a bum pitcher never will work. i dont know if you guys ever remember but 1 time a leader with i think a high streak 36 37 picks chipper jones vs dan haren . i kno i SMH at the pick to but guess wat first inning hit after i saw taht this si all about LUCK the lucky one will only win this fantasy no stragies no nutin just plain old luck

dragbunt – you do make a valid point but i think that strategy is used to get the free pass. it just gives some bts players an unfair advantage. i realize it’s a team decision and that the player can pinch hit even though he is “injured” (if memory serves Ortiz did that this year.) as a result, BTS has no choice other than to include that player as a choice. i get it, just don’t like it. :)

as for today, i was originally thinking matt holliday but he’s only hitting about .273 or so for the past week. am now thinking arod. mondays and thursdays are never easy. i agree that lee looks good but i am often wary of the king’s picks regardless of numbers…..

good luck today! that last one keeps hanging on (the enron guy)

p.s. not playing HRbts – can’t really comment on that…..

Great baseball book, “Fifth Season” by Donald Honig, that I’m reading has a incredible story about an injured player batting in a world series game.
1947 – Pete Reier (CF) Brooklyn Dodgers broke his ankle sliding into second base during World Series game 3. So now he’s on the bench in a cast with his uniform on for game 4. NYYankees v. Brooklyn Dodgers bottom of the 9th, Yankees up 2 – 1, two outs and a man on 2nd for Brooklyn. Pete Resier, in a cast, is sent up to pinch hit. NYY Mgr. Bucky Harris, orders his pitcher, Bill Bevens, to intentionally walk Reiser, going against baseball wisdom as now the winning run is on 1st base. Harris said “I know he can’t run but Reiser can hit.” As a big side note, Bevens was pitching a no hitter at the time, even though he had walked 10 batters. Naturally there is a pinch runner for Reiser at first base. Dodgers now on 1st and 2nd. Next batter is Cookie Lavagetto who hits a double scoring both runners. Final score Dodgers 3 – NYY 2. I looked it up in the Baseball Encyclopedia and there it was – one hitter for Bevans – final score Brooklyn 2 – NYY 1.
teampeanut – You are correct that players will use the injuried player to pass on a tough day. I would do it if I had a big streak and did not like anybody on a certain day. This would probably only happen in Sept after rosters are expanded as during rest of the season the team would have to play short a player if injured player was not put on DL. Michael Young and Alfonso Soriano are two players who fit this category.
Going with Derrek Lee tonight and CUB game is on TV for me. I also took DLEE in Home Run BTS. tonight.
Good luck to all today.
Will the blog be updated soon?
dragbunt

ooops………
Final score of that 1947 World Series game was
Brooklyn 3 NYY 2

I should have stayed with Holliday. My latest meaningless streak is in serious jeopardy. dragbunt – still can’t disagree with you – if $1.5 mil was on the line I’d be a big fat hypocrite and do the same thing. :)

New game idea – BTS Report Streak. We guess how many days will pass before the morons in charge realize that (a) they need to update it and (b) their current day/date is wrong…..streak is currently at 4 – do I hear 5 anyone? anyone?

Tuesday 9/15
Jason Kubel MN v. Fausto Carmona CLEV looks good. Kubel not playing on Monday(?). Kubel 10 -26 v. Carmona, Lefty bat v. Righty pitcher, Carmona is hittable .326 v. lefties and his ERA for last 30 days is 6.85 and 10.29 in Sept.
AJ Pierzynski of WSOX v. Snell looks good too. He is 3 – 6 v. Snell, game in Seattle. Snell 5.23 ERA in Sept but 3.33 in last 30 days. AJ is .320 v. Righties and .326 in away games.
AJ is a gamer from the old school style of play.
teampeanut who did you take on Monday?

blog will be update for April 1, 2010! :)

Joe Mauer also looks good v. Carmona(R) CLEV on Tuesday.
Mauer hitting .400 v. righties, .349 in Sept and .324 in last 30 days. Carmona .326 v. Lefties – is Carmona really that bad? ERA is 6.85 over last 30 days. Or is this a sucker pick?

WHY WHY WHY did I pick ARod?!?!?!?!? I like Ichie for Monday. AJ looks like a good pick as well. I know it’s meaningless now but I’m playing for practice for next year. What a dumb move. UGH.

For Tuesday I like Ichiro vs. Freddy Garcia

Tues 9/15 Injury Report
Jason Kubel MN – Sore Neck – He was “feeling better” on Monday though per newspaper report.
Justin Morneau – Bad Back
I’m going with Ichirio v. Freddy Rodriguez

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: