Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, May 19

 

Manny480BTS.jpg

Everything pretty much came up Milhouse for Streakers yesterday, as the six most popular picks (Shane Victorino, Ichiro Suzuki, Evan Longoria, Robinson Cano, Jayson Werth and Albert Pujols) each recorded hits to extend about 43 percent of streaks combined.

The day’s biggest grim reaper was Miguel Cabrera, whose 0-for-4 performance sonic boomed 3.1 percent of the population, including myself.

It makes too much sense that the first day I choose to openly challenge our top players, I see my streak get reset to zero. In fact, I even managed to completely ignore one of my golden BTS rules of “Never pick a guy who didn’t play the previous day.”

Well played.

Time for Wednesday’s picks.

 

Oh, hello there …

? Manny Ramirez: .500 AVG (15-for-30) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland

? Shin-Soo Choo: .471 AVG (8-for-17) lifetime vs. Royals starter Gil Meche

? Brian McCann: .500 AVG (7-for-14) lifetime vs. Reds starter Aaron Harang

? Derrek Lee: .455 AVG (5-for-11) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Jaime Moyer

 

Feeling kinda spicy? 

? Gerald Laird: .417 AVG (5-for-12) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Dallas Braden. I’m still in the never-take-Gerald-Laird-and-his-.153-batting-average phase of my life.

? Reed Johnson: .700 AVG (7-for-10) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland. Who here knew that Reed Johnson was on the Dodgers and not the Cubs? Thought so.

 

 You’ll thank me later …

? Vladimir Guerrero: .071 AVG (1-for-14) lifetime vs. Jeremy Guthrie

? Billy Butler: .100 AVG (1-for-10) lifetime vs. Indians starter Justin Masterson

? Adam LaRoche: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Giants starter Todd Wellemeyer

? B.J. Upton: .194 AVG (6-for-31) lifetime vs. Yankees starter A.J. Burnett

 

Leaderboard time!

Our top two leaders, “blakerockwell” and “lukehartzheim”, whose user names sound straight out 1940s Hollywood, each saw their streaks extended to 27 games thanks to Jayson Werth and Robinson Cano, respectively.

They are now officially 47.4 percent on their way to Everest’s summit.

 

Top MLB streakers

? Russell Martin: 13 games

? Carlos Gonzalez: 12 games

? Jeff Mathis: 10 games (DL)

? John Buck: 9 games

? Ty Wigginton: 9 games

 

 

51 Comments

im taking prado today. no real reason for that pick except that hes hitting well this season. with a streak of 0 im not going to look to deep into my pick

question: how many bts players are there?! Those streaking to 13 rank 221. My sweet little streak is up to 9 but I’m still ranked 10,000+ … goin’ with Polanco today.

OK, going with an easy standby today….Ichiro…..I need to get into double digits….he’ll be part of the equation throughout the journey….No more Miggie…he’s cost me twice now…

My 10-year-old son has a five-gamer going on….maybe he knows something…

Good luck gentlemen!

Frosty

em – I was at 9 yesterday, and standings showed me at 10000+. Today I am at 10, and the standings show me at 7933. If Polanco comes through for you, it should get you out of the 10000+ range in the standings.

I’m initially agreeing with Grande Amigo in that my pick for the day was Shin-Soo Choo. Gil Meche has given up a lot of hits (46 in 37 innings, .309 BA against) and Choo is doing pretty well (and has good history against Meche).

Of course, things may change between now and gametime….but Choo is my daily selection as of now.

Choo is a great pick and is definately under-utilized.

Another guy who rarely gets picked, at least that I’ve noticed, is Elvis Andrus. He seemingly gets a hit every night, but gets hardly any love from the BTS faithful, especially when you consider how often other young bucks like A. McCutchen and A. Jackson make their way onto the leaderboard.

Anyone have another guy they think the masses are overlooking?

I took Prado (Braves) today, but changed it to Votto (Reds) since I try not to pick home teams (unless its the Yankees :0). Votto hit two doubles against Kawakami (last year) in his only two AB’s. Also, Kawakami has not pitched that well this year: 1-6 5.79 ERA, lefties are hitting .324 and he only averages 5.2 innings. Having said all that – I am inclined to change my pick to Brett Gardner (Yankees). I’ll spare you my thinking on that one though…. Going with the Nats in Survivor to extend my streak to 6 and Konerko for the HR. Good luck everyone!

Frosty, for what it’s worth, I’ve been doing this awhile and Miggy is an awful guy for BTS…so is Mr. Hustle, Hanley Ramirez. They are great players in real life, but no one else of their caliber have more inexplicable O-fers. By that I mean an O-fer on a day when they have great numbers against that day’s starting pitcher. As others have pointed out, Votto is often guilty of that, too.

I think it’s important to remember that the game is not to pick the best player, but the most PREDICTABLE player. That’s why I try to stay with guys who have relatively extreme Lefty / Righty splits.

Anyone have another guy they think the masses are overlooking?

hey, been reading this blog for awhile, but first time posting. Another guy to keep an eye on is Brennan Boesch, he plays RF for the Tigers. Went with him the last 2 days and gonna give him another try today. He’s on an 8 game hitting streak and hopes he gets to 9 today…..will get my BTS to 3.

Oh, BTW, I joined the group too! Good luck to all.

One guy who everybody will overlook today is Kinsler. He is hitting .364 against Guthrie and has been hot since coming off the DL. OneHeartbeatAway u may think that will work but it’s a lot of lucky breaks to get to 57. Anything can happen between now and than.

I picked Elvis Andrus on both Sunday and Monday. Lucked out on Sunday with him going 1-for-1 on a seventh inning pinch hitting opportunity.

Here’s a thought about whether a player is over or under utilized. What is the percentage of games the player gets a hit (hint: this stat is not published anywhere I know of). For Ichiro, that number is usually over 80% (although it is slightly under 80% this year so far).

Elvis Andrus has hits in 29 of the 38 games he has played in this year (76%). Having said this, he has a hit or hits in 15 of the 16 games he has played in May….so he’s definitely hot right now. I’ve used him twice recently, and he is certainly in my consideration set of players that I would use for this contest.

of course i pick guys who consistently come through, that the BTS masses hardly ever pick. But its not a smart strategy to reveal those picks so everyone else can start taking them. Ill reveal all my players once i hit 57.

Is it just me or does it seem this contest gets harder everyday? When I first saw it I thought it would be a sinch and was surprised that no one had won the 3million. Its days like today that I see why, and so again Im looking for a few more opinions. Here are my thoughts and ideas on the guys Ive been contemplating.
Manny Ramirez – seems like pick of the day, but batters have a low average agaisnt garland and I’m hesitant to take Manny simply b/c he isnt really a hustle player and im afraid of him taking a day off.
Votto- not to keen on hte power hitters
Helton or tulowitzki- heltons been quiet, but great career numbers. Also afraid of him hitting so low in the batting order.
Ichiro – scared of jays pitching, been overachieving all year
Brian McCann- a brave? the way theyve been scoring runs?
M. Cabrera/Austin Jackson- Braden pitching, scares me
Adrian Gonzalez-good career numbers, large sample size
Phillies players – are the due to cool off?
Choo- really? the indians? choo?
Interested to hear some opinions and thoughts of others. GL to everyone today

“Brian McCann – a brave? the way they’ve been scoring runs?”

I wouldn’t pick the Braves to WIN in MLB Survivor against the Reds today, but Mac is always on my “look at” list to get a hit. I thought about picking him based on numbers, BUT he is batting 5th and its a home game. Not sure he would get up in the 9th for that potential last shot at getting me a hit. Of course he may double in the 1st… who knows… but you gotta go with the most AB’s opportunities. I’m learning towards Votto (as previously stated), but eyeing the Yankees (Gardner/Jeter) and Twins (Boston pitching). Short porch in Fenway for Mauer/Morneau may have “souvenir HR ball” written all over it. Good Luck!!

Ya? Like who? It jsut seems that there are enough guys you could pick, just no one that Im really esctatic about taking.

“I’m initially agreeing with Grande Amigo in that my pick for the day was Shin-Soo Choo. Gil Meche has given up a lot of hits (46 in 37 innings, .309 BA against) and Choo is doing pretty well (and has good history against Meche).

Of course, things may change between now and gametime….but Choo is my daily selection as of now.”

Choo seems to have already cooled off as his average has sunk into the .290′s.

“That’s why I try to stay with guys who have relatively extreme Lefty / Righty splits. ”

You might want to be careful with that, because you essentially leave yourself open to when the bullpen comes in.

You might get pinch-hit for and find yourself facing a lefty, when your batting average is only .150 against lefties.

That burned me with Bobby Abreu about 3 weeks ago.

“Anyone have another guy they think the masses are overlooking?

hey, been reading this blog for awhile, but first time posting. Another guy to keep an eye on is Brennan Boesch, he plays RF for the Tigers. Went with him the last 2 days and gonna give him another try today. He’s on an 8 game hitting streak and hopes he gets to 9 today…..will get my BTS to 3.

Oh, BTW, I joined the group too! Good luck to all.”

The only reasons I have stayed away from him are because he hits relatively low in the order, 5th, and because he has so few AB’s, I do not know what to make of him yet.

That and someone out of the top 4 hitters is usually a good choice.

“One guy who everybody will overlook today is Kinsler. He is hitting .364 against Guthrie and has been hot since coming off the DL. ”

But Guthrie is a good pitcher and Kinsler normally starts out real hot early and then sucks the rest of the year.

“of course i pick guys who consistently come through, that the BTS masses hardly ever pick. But its not a smart strategy to reveal those picks so everyone else can start taking them. Ill reveal all my players once i hit 57.”

haha, if you join the group, every pick you make will be revealed and if you even get into the 30′s, people can start following you.

I was going to go with Manny Ramirez for today but I decided to go with Jayson Werth to get my streak up to 6, my highest streak so far! He has been getting a hit in every game latley. For survivor, I picked the Phillies.

Prado
JD
M Cab (not the stinky one)
Gardner
Hamilton

Kinsler looked good but Guthrie has been doing well also.
I’m trying to go with hitters (Ryan Braun today) v. a weaker pitcher who is the Pirate lefty Burres. Also took Braun in HR BTS. I’m picking my survivor teams 10 days in advance and not looking at the page as my luck has been terrible in Survivor.

Champion_88: “Didn’t the blog officially denounce Votto for the season? And the Reds are going against a moderately tough pitcher.”

The SEASON… Really? Tough pitcher…. in Atlanta? What’s wrong with Votto vs. Kawakami? I thought it was a respectable pick based on the numbers and Cinni riding high on leading their division. Either way, I changed my pick from Votto to Gardner after your post AND at the last minute. I’ll be in control of the remote tonight changing channels between the Yank’s game and the Braves game. Good Luck!!

The party starts

” Its days like today that I see why, and so again Im looking for a few more opinions.”

Really? I saw several good options today.

It was just the matter of picking one of those several good pieces.

“I’m learning towards Votto (as previously stated), but eyeing the Yankees (Gardner/Jeter) ”

Didn’t the blog officially denounce Votto for the season? And the Reds are going against a moderately tough pitcher.

And Jeter is hitting about .170 in his last 10 games?

Crawford
Braun

Ichiro (X)

There’s a ton of good picks tonight.

I think I am going to stay with Choo. However, with Cleveland pitching Justin Masterson, I think either Scott Podsednik or Mike Aviles would be good plays at the top of the Royals order. And with RA Dickey (and his career .293 batting average against) going for the Amazins, either Nyjer Morgan (coming off an 0-for-5 against Chris Carpenter/Ryan Franklin) or Cristian Guzman are good plays.

Also, Cincinnati’s Orlando Cabrera just had a 10-game hitting streak snapped last night, but he’s been consistent lately (despite his overall .267 average) and is going against Kenshin Kawakami, who has a .291 batting average against and is definitely ‘hittable’.

And, of course, Ichiro is never really a bad play if you just don’t like anyone else.

Good luck

Still at 7 as Crawford didn’t play yesterday, thank god no pinch hit at bat. That’s the problem when you set your picks 3-4 days in advance.

Went with Kinsler today and Miguel Cabrera tomorrow.

Hmmm…. Votto got a hit in the 1st…… Urghhh…

Votto never officially band by the bloggers – He is on my personal do not play MVP list of Mauer, Votto and Pujols (MVP). I did take Votto in HR BTS yesterday and he went deep. Reds are on fire.

Correct, the MVP List belongs to MR. dragbunt. That being said I went with the numbers and rolled the dice with Votto and successfully move upto 3. Good luck to all tonight.

Gardner got a hit (wiping brow)…. Champion_88 stays on my Christmas card list… LOL!!!

Gardner singles for NYY
Braun doubles for Brew Crew – yes – my streak goes forward!
ooliber – pleasseeee – Mr. dragbunt – my “handle” dragbunt 104 is a tribute to Dodger shortstop of the 1960′s Mr. Maury Wills who stole 104 bases in 1962. He is Mr. Wills, I’m just dragbunt104 :) With the Reds being so hot, I’m thawing on Votto.
Khalil Greene of Cards last year, along with Joey Votto, spent time on DL last year for “Social Anxiety Disorder”.
I believe Green is out of baseball, a real shame as he was looking like an all-star when he came up with Padres.

Dragbunt104, my apologies. Didn’t know there was a significance.

00liber – just messing around :)
Glad to see your streak is coming around too – What do you think of Scott Rolen or Ryan Braun on Thursday?
Ryan Braun bunts for a single in the 9th inning today and I had in in HR BTS.

Twins on Thursday???

Choo gets two freakin walks and a hit by pitch….on base three times, no hit. !0-gamer by the wayside. At least I don’t have to worry about this game for a while, and can let the jumpstart pick do some work for me.

Game locks in early on Thurs 12:00 eastern time – beware
Ryan Braun looks good on Thurs. v. Bucs lefty Maholm is hittable.
Paul Konerko in HR BTS as he got a HR on Wed in Chicago and is streaky also ChiSox park is good HR park.
Choo looks good on paper again for Thurs but the Indians are terrible and I try to stay away from picks on this type team.

dragbunt104 : i like Brauns chances tomorow night. Actually i like the top 5 brewers vs Pit pitching. BUt i like Braun the most, he is .350 vs lefties, .424 on the road and .333 at night. McGehee’s and Week’s numbers are decent but not as good. Stay away from Prince, .216 vs left, .244 on the road. Escobars’ number aren’t much better than Prince’s. As for Cincy, either Votto or Rolen would be alright picks, BUT Hanson is the type that could mess with you. He;s a good young,hard throwing kid. Kinda like Braden in OAk. And he’s got a .223 career BAA at home.
As for my pick I am undecided at the moment, will make my pick in the am (leaning to a cubbie)

Damn, Miguel Cabrera 0 – 4 in last 2 games.

I’m still at 0 wins and 0 hits.

Hawpe helped my current streak to 5.
For Thursday, I’m going with Vlad.

I’m going with Robbie Cano on Thursday. He kills James Shields and I think he had 2 hits in a game against him earlier this year but I’m not definite. He is hitting .462 against Shields in his career and I love those numbers so Robbie to get me to 5.

I’m going with Robbie Cano on Thursday. He kills James Shields and I think he had 2 hits in a game against him earlier this year but I’m not definite. He is hitting .462 against Shields in his career and I love those numbers so Robbie to get me to 5.

Kinsler got me to 4 and very happy about that.

I went with my heart instead of my head last night. I just figured Aaron Hill would pick it up considering hes a lifetime 295 hitter.. he is hitting 170! Retarded! Oh well.. I guarantee you he will get hot… and soon.

he did hit one to the wall that Franky shouldnt have got, hes becoming a better CF then i thought he would ever be.

I started with 10 straight at the start of the season and haven’t made it back since! I’m at 8 now and looking forward to getting back on track — just one problem. I’m going on vacation Sunday and probably wont have internet access until the 31st. So I have to make 8 picks all at once! Any advice for picking hitters way ahead of time?

Kim, just look at some of the hottest players now and pick from that group. You can pick like one or two who have a modest like 5 game hitting streak going because they will probably keep it going for at least 5 days.

Thanks for the advice, Vinny! I’m going to go through tomorrow and make my picks through the 30th.

Hi Everyone…. have not posted for several days… was all the way to 11 and for those interested I was 5668… Had a choice between Mig Cabrera and Braun… tossed a coin and got Braun… back to ZERO….

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: