Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, June 1

Crawford480BTS.jpg

I don’t know what’s better news: The fact that the top six player selections each laced hits to extend the streaks of about 35 percent of Streakland combined, or that I keep thinking it’s Monday only to repeatedly hover my mouse over the clock thing on the bottom right corner of my monitor and it reads “Tuesday, June 1, 2010.”

That clock is so wise and just the bearer of the bestest news.

And what better way to celebrate a great start to a shortened Beat the Streak workweek then to reach out to the BTS world for a little Q&A?

That’s right, I’m asking all of you fantasy game multi-million-dollar entrepreneurs out there to send in any questions, comments, qualms or just incredible ideas that have anything to do with Beat the Streak to david.feldman@mlb.com.

Think the Beat the Streak Report needs a little face lift? Some lipo? One of those sounds-amazingly-painful gastric band surgeries?

Let me know and drop me a line at david.feldman@mlb.com.

I will post them in tomorrow’s Beat the Streak Report and we can all get wiser together.

Just like the clock thing.

Time for Monday’s picks

Wait a second …

Time for Tuesday’s picks

So wise!

Oh, hello there …

? Manny Ramirez: .548 AVG (17-for-31) lifetime vs. Diamondbacks starter Dan Haren

? Chone Figgins: .563 AVG (9-for-16) lifetime vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

? Carl Crawford: .467 AVG (7-for-15) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Brian Tallet

? Chipper Jones: .409 AVG (9-for-22) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Cole Hamels

? Ty Wigginton: .355 AVG (11-for-31) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Javier Vazquez

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Casey Blake: .351 AVG (13-for-37) lifetime vs. Diamondbacks starter Dan Haren. It’s pretty much Octoberfest when it comes to Dan Haren these days.

You’ll thank me later …

? Troy Tulowitzki: .152 AVG (5-for-33) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito

? Bobby Abreu: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Royals starter Brian Bannister

? Albert Pujols: .182 AVG (2-for-11) lifetime vs. Reds starter Johnny Cueto

Leaderboard time!

“kneetgm”, our leader entering the weekend, saw his/her streak bite the dust at 27 games to become the fifth BTSer who was KO’d at the 27-game mark.

Anybody else find this a smidgen interesting? Just me? Alright, just checking …

Anyway, let’s see if our new leader, “agentstjohn” can buck the trend and eclipse the 27-game mark tonight.

Top MLB streakers

? Robinson Cano: 14 games

? Jeff Mathis: 10 games (DL)

? Jose Reyes: 9 games

? Vernon Wells: 9 games

? Derek Jeter: 8 games

? Reed Johnson: 8 games

? David Ortiz: 8 games

? Denard Span: 8 games

39 Comments

I’m going with Cano for W6.

i was thinking cano as well but think i might go with maggs instead just because hes dominated westbrook and i dont like cano against lefties

I have Cano tonight and tomorrow but tomorrow I think that Cano will break his hitting streak. I will probably change him for tomorrow. My sleeper for today is Jose Reyes.

I have Cano tonight and tomorrow but tomorrow I think that Cano will break his hitting streak. I will probably change him for tomorrow. My sleeper for today is Jose Reyes.

I’m thinking either Butler, Manny or Huff for BTS. May go with the Phils in Survivor. Atlanta is 0-5 against the Phillies when Hudson is pitching. Tonight may be the night the Philly bats come to life, and I may just bet my current 0 Survivor streak on it. LOL!!

I’m going w Mauer 2day. Might seem like a dumb pick b/c Vargas has pitched gr8 this yr but I’m trying something new. It worked Sat. & Sun., think I just had bad luck w Loney yest. b/c he had a foul popout, 2 line drive outs & a walk.

NYPost.com is reporting Jeter will be in the line-up tonight. Wonder if the rain will hold out for 9 innings?

NY Lineup per NYPost.com:
Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Thames DH
Cervelli C
Granderson CF
Russo LF
Javier Vazquez is the starting pitcher

Going with Jeter tonight for hit #6. My goal is 12 (my career high). It was between Jeter and Crawford. I had Cano for the past 3 games and didn’t want to push it.

Are you sh1tting me !

I picked Mark Teixeira to get a hit tonight and he get’s up twice and go’s 0 – fer, then get’s taken out with a minor injury.

Yeah, I went with Jeter too.

Cano has been hitting .500 over the past 10 days and .363 overall.

I think the aberration is coming and it is not as if there were not better options available today.

The overall BTS universe agrees with us too with Jeter edging Ichiro and Cano by a % share of 9.1-8.6-8.0.

Today’s Top Picks of the Top2500. All games included, total of 127 different players picked.
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Robinson Cano, 337, 13.48
Magglio Ordonez, 322, 12.88
Derek Jeter, 308, 12.32
Ichiro Suzuki, 220, 8.8
Ben Zobrist, 140, 5.6
Miguel Cabrera, 119, 4.76
Carl Crawford, 91, 3.64
Evan Longoria, 85, 3.4
Alex Rodriguez, 47, 1.88
Vladimir Guerrero, 44, 1.76
Hanley Ramirez, 41, 1.64
Francisco Cervelli, 38, 1.52
Billy Butler, 33, 1.32
Joe Mauer, 31, 1.24
Justin Morneau, 29, 1.16
… No Selection, 25, 1
Highest “No Selection”: Page #3 with a streak of 19 now reset to zero.

Interesting how the Top2500 selections differ from the masses. I tend to think the Top2500 picks are more indicative of those in the know; at least of those with more to lose ;)

YANKNYKMAN49 19 19 Ryan Braun No Selection
blizzard.97 17 17 Ichiro Suzuki No Selection
unknownatthisaddress 15 15 Ichiro Suzuki No Selection
Amazing how there people get this high and forget to add picks.

Woooohooooo! Up to 6. Now to prepare for tomorrow as it locks earlier. Who to pick, who to pick?

And here’s to June! Hoping it is more fruitful than May. Though my pick has 1 AB left and 0-fer so far, my optimism is still high — can’t do much worse than I did last month. Could be a big shake-up on Survivor today – top 4 of 5 teams tied or losing: Yanks, Rays, BoSox, Tigers.

Oh no…… 20 back to ZERO with Longoria going 0-fer thru 7…?

Well Deb, if Longoria doesn’t come thru for you, congrats on 20. I’d be happy to get that far honestly. And when I look at 57 as the mark… That’s back-to-back-to-back 19 game streaks. Little wonder it hasn’t been won yet! So, my goal & most others is to top 36 right now; still plenty of time.

“Interesting how the Top2500 selections differ from the masses. I tend to think the Top2500 picks are more indicative of those in the know; at least of those with more to lose ;)”

I don’t think so. With so many people playing and so many lucks going one way or another, you can swing about 10 to 13 streak without much thought. I don’t even pay attention to any picks below 20 streak. Even at 20, there is 37 more games to go. Just because you got beyond 10 doesn’t mean you’re doing something tangibly correct. Its more like mere luck or you rode someone on a hot streak.

Having played this for 4th year now, it seems this year the ones who can get to 25 streak or so are doing something worth looking into. Its simply much tougher this year with BTS workhorses doing lots of surprising 0-fers. Last year, you need at least 30 to get that kind of credibility. With Ichiro on that huge hitting streak and never 0-fer day games, it was so much easier. I forgot about Mauer hitting mad last year too.

lavolpe, I’m a die hard Met’s fan and yet I’ve picked a Yankee hitter several times this season. Yes it pains me to do so, but if I can get a hit, that’s what I’m trying to do. I also don’t like to pick a player that is playing against the Met’s and a player that is playing against Boston, but I’ve done it a few times and they always seem to come through. Maybe it’s something you should look into. Might help you to get that streak going again. ;)

Let’s hope Tampa scores 2 now to tie for deb23!

TYVM Lavolpe… Longoria just walked on a 3-2 count, top of the 9th. It was a fun ride, but back to the drawing board I go (wiping tears). Who do we like for tomorrow?

Skill or luck – hmmm, let’s look at a couple examples and I think the choice is obvious.
1. Batter owns pitcher with dozens of ABs and 400 AVG — goes 0-fer with 5 ABs. 100’s of Top2500 get reset.
2. Pitcher allowing 1+ hits per inning & high ERA, throws a no-hitter. 100’s of Top2500 get reset.
3. Batter is batting .150ish and is at Home and is batting 8th or 9th place in order and gets 3 ABs. Gets a hit and 5 people in the Top2500 continue their streaks.
4. Batter has never seen pitcher before. Gets hit and 100s of Top2500 continue their streaks
Sometimes I wonder if using a random generator would result in relatively similar success/failure. There is no skill to this game other than picking a player that “feels” right. If it were played on paper it would be won every year until someone hit a 100% season-long streak. But with the human factor involved (tired, bruised, upset, etc), pinch-hitting, undisclosed minor injuries, walks, hit by pitch, excellent defense, and all the other intangibles, it comes down to a lucky guess IMO.

One thing is for sure. Throw away the hitter v. pitcher avg. That is the most misleading duck out there. Most of those stand out match ups turn out to be 50/50. That is there to help the insurance co. that wrote the jackpot.

Look at Mag today. I knew that was gonna happen. I bet Furcal will get hit off Haren instead.

I do have a magic formula to winning this. I will share it one day because I don’t need the dough. I am already a millionaire from spam selling Viagra.

Great analysis Lavolpe and TY BTSPlayer…. Well, I made it to the page 2 (rank 30) which is pretty kewl and a career BTS high. I’ll shake my magic 8-ball and hit mlb.com/fantasy again tomorrow to get another streak going. Still a lot of time to get 57 in 2010!

Oh, and to add to misleading stats, luck, educated guesses, etc. How about fan loyalty? In this case, it is a negative vs. positive. Why? We become biased, pick our favorite players sometimes because we want them to get hits not necessarily because they are mathematically likely to. Goes the other way too. I haven’t picked Pujols this year because I’m such a die-hard Cubs fan, I can’t find it in myself to cheer for the Cards; so I am biasing myself out of several potential players. What’s worse than that — I know it and still can’t pick Pujols, Holliday or Ludwick — no hope for me is there?

Luck is a huge part of the game no doubt. Sometimes you have to go against logic and go with your gut on inside info that you may have. e.g. I took Bucs McCutchensen Monday v. Cubs Randy Wells as Wells got hit hard on Friday as I was watching the game on TV. So what happens on Monday, Wells pitched well but McCutchensen got on hit.
This was lucky! Stay away from the streak breakers: Mauer, Pujols and Votto.
Cano looks good on Wednesday O’s pitcher is hittable and Cano is hot.

I have Cano picked right now for tomorrow, but I’m afraid I’ve picked him 4 of the past 5 games and he’s been OK, but my luck may run out.

“”How about fan loyalty? “””

Agreed. That goes into it also. I have teams/players that I will not pick because of loyalty to my team. In the long run it just adds another obstacle getting to $3M. Gotta learn to separate fact from fantasy. Good luck all!

“And here’s to June! Hoping it is more fruitful than May. Though my pick has 1 AB left and 0-fer so far, my optimism is still high — can’t do much worse than I did last month. Could be a big shake-up on Survivor today – top 4 of 5 teams tied or losing: Yanks, Rays, BoSox, Tigers.”

lol, you certainly helped the leaderboard there!

3 of those teams: Yanks, Rays, and BoSox ended up winning!!!

“Skill or luck – hmmm, let’s look at a couple examples and I think the choice is obvious.
1. Batter owns pitcher with dozens of ABs and 400 AVG — goes 0-fer with 5 ABs. 100’s of Top2500 get reset.
2. Pitcher allowing 1+ hits per inning & high ERA, throws a no-hitter. 100’s of Top2500 get reset.
3. Batter is batting .150ish and is at Home and is batting 8th or 9th place in order and gets 3 ABs. Gets a hit and 5 people in the Top2500 continue their streaks.
4. Batter has never seen pitcher before. Gets hit and 100s of Top2500 continue their streaks”

2 and 4 do not happen very often and 4 does not mean that the player is not going to get a hit.

I mean there are whole teams that have never seen pitchers before. Does that mean the pitcher is going to throw a no-hitter?

“Oh, and to add to misleading stats, luck, educated guesses, etc. How about fan loyalty? In this case, it is a negative vs. positive. Why? We become biased, pick our favorite players sometimes because we want them to get hits not necessarily because they are mathematically likely to. Goes the other way too. I haven’t picked Pujols this year because I’m such a die-hard Cubs fan, I can’t find it in myself to cheer for the Cards; so I am biasing myself out of several potential players. What’s worse than that — I know it and still can’t pick Pujols, Holliday or Ludwick — no hope for me is there?”

Eh, I really do not feel that.

I am a Mets’ fan and had to decide between Jeter and Reyes today.

Went with Jeter and I am up to 3, while Reyes went 0 for 5.

I do not think it is bad to pick against your team in BTS, because the other guy could get a hit, but the team can still lose.

@champ88: “I mean there are whole teams that have never seen pitchers before. Does that mean the pitcher is going to throw a no-hitter?”
Nope, I was referring to the luck principle. There are no stats btwn pitcher and hitter, but a hitter is picked by a couple hundred or more BTS players and gets a hit. What is that, other than a lucky flip of the coin? In those cases, which do happen often enough, the pick was a “feel” more than anything else because there really wasn’t any info/data to base the decision on.

Hmmm, flip of the coin…. Maybe I should try picking like 3 or 4 players, then flip a coin for each one, say 10 times per player. Whichever one gets more heads/tails, is the one I’ll pick. Maybe as sound a scheme/formula than anything else ;)

I think it’s good to move from the pack and go with your gut sometime! But, When is the time to make that move? You end up @ Zero again if u pick the wrong day.

That being said, Is there a way to pick a player as if they are not a starter??

Feeling froggie and I’d like to do that. And it’s based on one of ur recommendations.

I think it’s good to move from the pack and go with your gut sometime! But, When is the time to make that move? You end up @ Zero again if u pick the wrong day.

That being said, Is there a way to pick a player as if they are not a starter??

Feeling froggie and I’d like to do that. And it’s based on one of ur recommendations.

Sorry bout the double entry on my last comment.

I have a new method I’m going to use from now on. Since best ave, hitting streaks, hot teams hasn’t worked for me.
(I did my best when I didn’t make a pick and used my default player)
My new secret method:I’m going to use every player that the Chicago Sox or Cubs have traded away in the last three years.
I’m the only person in ChiTown who is a fan of both teams. So I think I have a lock on this system.

But I was serious about the ? before. Is there a way to pick a nonstarter as ur pick?

I’m never picking the Giants on survivor again for a long time if I take them period! Their offense is incredibly BAD and I’m back to 0 in survivor thanks to picking them instead of my Yankees or the Braves.
On the other hand on beat the streak I’m at 9 and I’m still deciding on who to pick at this point.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

%d bloggers like this: