Beat the Streak Report: Monday, June 7 — Draft Day!

 

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With the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft set for Monday night, it’s time for an all-Draft edition of the Beat the Streak Report.

Why not, right?

I mean, I know as aspiring multi-millionaires you’ve been doing your due diligence on Bryce Harper for years, just to see how viable of a BTS option he’ll be in 2013, right?

And I double-know you’re all jonesin’ to see if there’s any correlation between being a top Draft pick and being a top BTS pick, right?

Exactly.

Time for Monday’s picks

Oh, hello there …


? 2005 No. 1 Pick Justin Upton: .625 AVG (5-for-8) lifetime vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe (1991 No. 214 Pick)

? 2000 No. 1 Pick Adrian Gonzalez: .294 AVG (5-for-17) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Cole Hamels (2002 No. 17 Pick)

? 1999 No. 1 Pick Josh Hamilton: .308 AVG (4-for-13) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Cliff Lee (2000 No. 105 Pick)

(other picks)

? 1999 No. 57 Pick Brandon Phillips: .400 AVG (4-for-13) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito (1999 No. 9 Pick)

? 2004 No. 15 Pick Stephen Drew: .484 AVG (15-for-31) lifetime vs. Braves starter Lowe.

? 1995 No. 8 Pick Todd Helton: .500 AVG (11-for-22) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez*

Feeling kinda spicy?

? 1990 No. 1 Pick Chipper Jones: .300 AVG (3-for-10) lifetime vs. D-backs starter Dan Haren (2001 No. 72 pick). That’s a 71-pick difference! Come on!

? 1992 No. 1 Pick Pat Burrell: Zero at-bats lifetime vs. Reds starter Johnny Cueto*. Cueto wasn’t even drafted! How good could this guy possibly be …?

* = International free agent

Ohhhhh …

You’ll thank me later …

? 2004 No. 64 Pick Dustin Pedroia: .167 AVG (1-for-6) lifetime vs. Indians starter Fausto Carmona*

? Vladimir Guerrero*: .167 AVG (4-for-24) since ’05 vs. Mariners starter Lee

? Orlando Cabrera*: .103 AVG (3-for-29) lifetime vs. Giants starter Zito

Leaderboard time!

Sunday’s top six options each laced hits to help extend the streaks of about 35 percent of the BTS universe combined.

Robinson Cano, who saw his 17-game streak snap on Friday, was back in his just-ate-a-star, now-I’m-sparkling Invincible Mario mode, going 3-for-4 to advance 10 percent of our aspiring entrepreneurs to the next level; perhaps Bowser’s castle.

Anyway, we headed into the weekend with a six-way battle atop the leaderboard. We said auf wiedersehen to “lisaacco17″ on Friday, but the rest survived, leaving the following fivesome atop our leaderboard with stellar 30-game streaks:

? bathetruth

? jshoreyinsurance

? khouryboysan

? scan15

? steveellis24

Each of these villagers of Streakville are officially 52.6 percent on their way to the big bucks! Big bucks! No whammies!

Top MLB streakers

? Vernon Wells: 14 games

? Elvis Andrus: 12 games

? Martin Prado: 11 games

Five players tied with 10-game streaks.

78 Comments

Deciding between Ichiro or Scutaro. Right now I have Scutaro but decisions, decisions.

I’m thinkin marlon byrd, ethier, polanco, franklin gutierrez, or berkman, i’ve got berkman locked, i’m already sweating.

looks like the whole world picked ichiro today

WOW! A 29-game no selection!

I went with Martin Prado today.

The sum value of Prado seemed higher than Ichiro and I did suspect that everyone would go for Ichiro, so I did not figure to gain any ground that way.

For one thing, the Braves as a team right now are hot, whereas the Mariners offense has been cold all year.

The Diamondbacks bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, whereas the Rangers have a pretty solid bullpen.

Someone also posted a quote which indicated that Ichiro may be rested in this series and with the early game today, I cannot check the lineups to ensure that he is starting, and even then, he may get subbed out later, if the game gets lopsided.

Does that make sense to anyone?

I’m done already. The Riot rips a double for me. I will be doing my BTS mantra and hope for BTS Blogger’s friend (or a cousin) to be the pitcher he was last year. IF that pitcher returns tonight, there is a possibility that the Everything Bagel with Lox & cream cheese can prevail over a Spicy Tuna Roll. I hope it happens!

Champion – your opponent is the number 57, not the other players. Assuming that you have a 75% chance of being correct every day, the odds are greater than 50-50 that you will lose your streak in the next three days (they’re about 52%). To me, the focus is totally on making a correct pick, and let the leaderboard work itself out. If you can get up to 30 or so, you will find your name prominently on the leaderboard on its own.

Having said this, I really toyed with taking Ryan the Riot today after his day off. It seems that days off can refresh good hitters, especially if they have hit a small rough patch. But then I thought “Is this guy really a better pick than Ichiro today”. Sometimes, I wish I didn’t think too much.

The streaker @ 29 must not like the Cubs and Pirates when he logs into his account after his lunch break. He must have thought he can use the company time to research his pick while digesting lunch. Oh boy, he is in for a shock. I forget, is Mondays always night games only? It feels that way. That is why he must have not picked. He should had a safety pick in their just in case. Ichi is always a good safe pick.

Hey, did anyone have the guy that broke up Galarraga’s perfect game last week? If you did, congrats, karma’s on your side.

It does seem like one of those days where the best pick would go hitless so i went another way too. I went with the super sleeper Jeff Keppinger. He’s basically a fastball hitter who makes contact seemingly every plate appearance, against a guy who does challenge with the fastball a lot in one of the best hitter parks. Don’t think this is the best possible pick but i think it’ll manage
I like prado a little but he’s one of those guys who seems to do better at home, so playing on the west coast against a pitcher who can throw a shutout on any day didn’t appeal to me as much.
But when ichiro is being selected by 20%, I’ll try just about anyone and hope ichiro goes hitless. Didn’t expect the front page to be full of ichiro though lol.

Well I have a sleeper for today. It’s Yunel Escobar. He’s hitting .500 over the last 7 days but the only problem I see along with Prado is the fact that they are facing Haren. Haren can pitch a great game any day and usually does. ERA is high but he is still an elite pitcher.

29 game streak and no selection? A brain fart of the highest order. :) Went with Escobar today. Back to 1, hopefully to 2 and then I’ll be 3% on my way to drinking a frozen margarita in Yankee Stadium. Just because I can. :)

Regarding up & coming and/or sleepers. Keep an eye out for Pirates’ 3B Neil Walker. He hits to all fields, makes good contact, and bats in top 3 of lineup. During a televised game, even looks like a real hitter.

I watched the ChiSox v. Tribe over the weekend. Tribe bullpen is questionable – going with Scutaro. BoSox could do some damage tonight to Tribe Staff.
ohwow – I liked you comment. Our goal is 57 not other players.

wow so many people picked Ichiro as did I. don’t remember why I picked him but I can tell it’s the same thought that everyone has had. This is a win-win situation if Ichiro gets a hit my streak goes to 5 if he doesn’t that wipes out pretty much the whole leaderboard. I can deal with losing a 4 game losing streak to keep the money available

Today’s Top Picks of the Top2500. ** CHC-PIT resets and “No Selections” not included as BTS updated before I pulled the data.
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki, 1124, 44.96%
Martin Prado, 171, 6.84
Adrian Beltre, 135, 5.4
Andre Ethier, 94, 3.76
Albert Pujols, 79, 3.16
Matt Holliday, 78, 3.12
Brandon Phillips, 73, 2.92
Michael Bourn, 66, 2.64
Stephen Drew, 46, 1.84
Franklin Gutierrez, 37, 1.48
Marlon Byrd, 36, 1.44
Kevin Youkilis, 36, 1.44
Highest “No Selection” we know from previous posts: Page 1 with a streak of 29! now reset to zero.

“Regarding up & coming and/or sleepers. Keep an eye out for Pirates’ 3B Neil Walker. He hits to all fields, makes good contact, and bats in top 3 of lineup. During a televised game, even looks like a real hitter.”

I noticed him, but figured it was not a good idea to pick a rookie with 40 AB’s against Carlos Silva.

Looks like he did get a hit though.

It appears the main Pirates’ pieces did come through.

“Our goal is 57 not other players.”

Yeah, but 37 can be a nice little secondary goal in the meantime, but that will disappear if someone from the current streak throws a 48 up there.

A few days ago (yesterday maybe?) someone asked what was the highest “No Selection” ever seen. I don’t recall seeing someone with a streak of 30+ making a No Selection, so maybe “jamesh3014″ now owns that dubious record?

How many BTS players will be listening to or watching the TEX-SEA game? Nearly 45% Top2500 going with Ichiro while only 20% of the entire field, interesting. I’m guessing 45% hoping for a hit and 55% hoping for an 0-fer. Is he even in the lineup today? We’ll know in about an hour or so.

^^ maybe that split is more like 20-80!

NOW I remembered one of the core reasons I avoided Ichiro today!

From my experience, I have noticed that, on the whole, Ichiro works backwards.

He gets hits against the tough pitchers, but then when the weak pitchers come in, he goes 0 for 4 with 1 walk.

Not sure why it works out that way, but that is a general rule.

@champ88. Like you I avoided him today too for other reasons and we also picked the same player today. Only cause I didn’t pick him and a high % of ppl did, you know where I fall within that split.

well 2 of my 4 picks got a hit (byrd, and polanco) too bad i didnt pick them, lets see how gutierrez and berkman do, berkman being the most important of them all.

I’m already done for today. Scutaro doubled in first AB so I’m good until tomorrow.

I forgot to also say good luck to everybody else for tonight. I have a bad feeling about Ichiro.

Ichiro IS in the starting lineup today.

I actually just noticed the box switch from blue to yellow.

Never saw that transition happen before!

The Top 15 is a popularity contest. There are great players that do not make the top 15 each day. Take today for example – Scutaro of RSox owns the Cleveland pitcher and does not make the top 15 at all. Vinny called it and took Scutaro who doubled in the top of the first and he lives to streak another day – congrats.
I had Scutaro too – time to focus on Tuesday.
Guy posting under the radar picks keep them coming.
Ichirio will get at least on hit tonight.

Not sure how everyone else feels, but I think it would be prudent to hold analysis for the next day, until the current day’s slate of games have finished.

The reason I say this statement is that most of the action is still to come and it might be confusing to have some people who had an early success talking about Tuesday, when most people are still looking at Monday’s games.

Plus, you might see things in today’s games that effect how you view tomorrow’s players.

Also, part of getting good at picks is learning why other players were successful and why others failed.

That is how you develop lessons and rules to use when evaluating players.

So my plan would be to more or less review the day’s games while in action (particularly in the west coast shift when lots of the east coast games have already gone final,) and then focus on the next day the following morning.

I would especially encourage this strategy in days where there are no day games for the next day (picks tomorrow do not lock until 7 o’clock.)

Does anyone else agree?

Champion, I do agree. Right now I’m suffering from the fear that I have a streak of 11 and won’t ever make it to 57 because the people ahead of me get there first. :-( Oh well, I guess I just keep picking and hope someone screws up. It’s never been done in 10 years and the closest anyone has come is 49. I guess I just keep on trucking and hope for the best.

well 2 of my 4 picks got a hit (byrd, and polanco) too bad i didnt pick them, lets see how gutierrez and berkman do, berkman being the most important of them all.

champion – The key is to state the day you are picking with the players name. I’m guessing that everyone posts when they have the chance, are home from work, not cutting the lawn etc. The times that we post are also messed up. My posts are actually 2 hours and 10 minutes ahead of the actual real world time. I agree not posting for the next day on a day when the current games begin at 7pm. That is solid advice.
**** Luck to all.

How do you get consored for saying
Good Luck to all?

Check the time of this post.
I’m posting at 7:04pm Central time.

0 for 1 for Ichiro

It shows as 9:06 PM. It’s 8:12 PM EST here.

I don’t know if they have it set for DST or not. They might not which is why it keeps having different times. It’s 8:25 PM and it will say 9:25. Also I don’t mind not saying who I like for tomorrow since I am already done just to see what happens tonight. I do work tomorrow but my pick is already in and I will post later tonight after all games are over.

As for the time issue, I know MLBAM is based in NYC and MLB Network in Seacaucus, New Jersey, so it may be that they just set everything to eastern time.

Although that still does not explain why there are random 45 minute variations that insert later picks on top of each other.

Ichiro: 0 for 1, 1 walk.

Why does it feel like everyone on Seattle will get a hit tonight except for Ichiro? I knew I should have picked Posey, Phillips, Sanchez, Scutaro, Byrd, etc., etc., etc.

lol, maybe it will be an analog to the game where every Twin except Mauer, got a hit?

yes, even Tolbert and Punto.

Anyone know why Elvis Andrus is out of the lineup by the way?

I am one hit away from my career high streak of 12 from a few years ago. And I’ll be damned if I am going to allow Ichiro to end it for me here. Don’t you do it Ichiro! Slap that ball! LOL!

Dammit
I spent about three hours before the morning game (on the boat fishing, so I guess I can’t bitch too much) deciding between Byrd and Soriano. Ended up going with fonso b/c of 397 average v lefties. Oops.

Gurpsing- GL with Berk tonight and here’s hoping Ichi goes for naught. Would love to see one if us win.

Ill take and o-fer night in fantasy to have ichi knock as crapload of ppl back down.

M

Ichi ground out in 6th

Here’s why Andrus is out of the lineup tonight, from Rotoworld:

Elvis Andrus and Justin Smoak are out of Monday’s starting lineup against the Mariners.
They are simply getting the day off. Andres Blanco will start in Andrus’ place and bat ninth against Cliff Lee. Joaquin Arias, another right-handed hitter, will play first first base.

Can Ichiro go 0-6 or 0-7? The way the game’s headed, he may get that many at bats. Or if it gets out of hand, manager may rest Ichiro early.

Let’s see. Scutaro was hitting .389 against Carmona before this game and after his 3 for 3 so far he is now hitting .476 against Carmona. Why wasn’t he a pick of the day is beyond me but I’m happy I picked him.

I see Ichiro having an 0 fer game. It always happens when everybody picks him and he has an 0 fer game.

Everyone in a panic over Ichiro’s 1st two ABs? How many times has he gotten a hit in one of his last two ABs? Quite often. He’s on 10 game hitting streak and got a few more ABs left. I wouldn’t mind him going 0-fer but would be surprised to see it.

They just have to get Feldman out of there and he should get his hit.

I just can’t believe I finally pick Ichiro after not picking him the whole season so far and so far no hit. I had Ethier picked before him and then a whole ton of other players and all of them got hits so far. Figures!

thanks!

do those types of reports get posted before, say noon, everyday?

or are those only added within an hour of gametime?

the rotoworld reports is what I am referring to by the way.

it would not take my post for a while for some reason.

They get posted throughout the day. Just go to the main page or to the MLB main page and they are there. You can then click on More Player News at the bottom of the list and get more further back. I just kept looking till I found Andrus.

Feldman has 111 pitches through 5 innings – he can’t last much longer. Ichirio gets second at bat if one more M’s gets a hit and no DPlay. This is a wild one.

*bleh*…Prado struck out in his first AB.

uh-oh, Ichiro is still gonna hit against Feldman.

oh nevermind, another test against a lefty instead.

Lefty-Lefty matchup at SEA. Here we go….

Barring being pulled, one more AB guaranteed for the BTS workhorse.

Well going to bed now. Can’t stand to watch Suzuki’s last AB. I’ll just hope to wake up tomorrow morning to good news. Otherwise a good portion of the field got decimated and we all start anew.

Oh boy!!! The plot thickens for Ichiro. 0-2 with 2 walks and he may get one more AB.

he definitely will get 1 more PA, as long as he did not get subbed for.

if you have Ichiro now, you better hope that Lee does not give up any runs in the bottom of the 7th and bottom of the 8th, because, if so, then Ichiro will definitely face Feliz in the 9th.

if not, or if the lead gets bigger, he may either just face Harrison again or one of the lower-leverage middle relievers.

With a potential 11-game hit streak on the line and he comes up in 9th with no one on, who wants to bet it tries a bunt for a hit? Manager won’t take him out ’cause of the hit streak.

I would not feel great about Suzuki’s chances right now.

Harrison has given up 0 hits and recorded 8 outs and it will be another lefty/lefty matchup for Ichiro.

This situation seems very analogous to the day that the winner last year, lost his 45-game hit streak.

His 5th AB came at the exact same time and most of the Twins offense that day was clustered in the front 5 innings played.

Well, here we go… Final lefty-lefty matchup and the winner is… ????

There goes the bunt opportunity.

And Ichiro grounds into a forceout. Unless the Rangers are able to make a comeback in the bottom of the 9th, he’s going to end up 0-3 with 2 walks.

The board is cleared. Ichiro got on with a fielder’s choice so he is 0-3 and his hitting streak is over.

Congrats to the 4 new leaders at 26.
oooh, Prado gets a hit too. No more big surprises left for tonight.

Yep, we’ere already at 55% and growing with 11% still unaccounted for tonight . That does not include any “no selections” or CHC-PIT resets. Those were removed from the Top2500 when I pulled that data and replaced by those that moved up. So the stats are for the current Top2500 as of the data pull.

damn berkman, there goes my streak oh well

F^%k! I was never thinking of Ichiro but why’d I pick a bum like Hunter Pence? As I watched Ichiro go along w/o a hit I thought I’d get by but I guess not. At least majority of the people went down w/ me.

Wow, so 49.92% of top 2500 active streaks already eliminated, with 6.28% left up for grabs with Pujols and Holliday.

And then, the fringe picks and no selections, should push the fail rate over 50%.

Crazy blog clock. Posted my pick behind yours….
So @champ88: Yep, we’ere already at 55% and growing with 11% still unaccounted for tonight . That does not include any “no selections” or CHC-PIT resets. Those were removed from the Top2500 when I pulled that data and replaced by those that moved up. So the stats are for the current Top2500 as of the data pull.

@champ88: Update — Don’t usually tally results until after games are played. But with the final 3 games as of right now, 8.3% remaining to be determined (2% fringe after Pujols/Holliday’s night is over).

@champ88: Tally up that 6.28% for STL. Holliday pulled and Pujols 0-fer after 8, down by 8 runs. Add in part of the fringe since last update and looking at 62% +/- 1% of Top2500 reset. Wow!

Oh well, it was interesting and fun posting while I had a streak. Less interesting with a reset. Time to let autopick do its work and worry about other things for a while.

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