Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, June 8

Ichiro3_480BTS.jpg

Let’s pretend Monday never happened, OK?

In the biggest single-handed slaughterfest of the season, Ichiro Suzuki’s 0-for-3 performance against Scott Feldman and the Rangers, ransacked the streaks of 20.3 percent of the universe.

Why such an astounding amount of streakers would pick Ichiro when he entered Monday a career .272 hitter against (cousin?) Scott is beyond me, even considering Suzuki’s .462 clip for June.

And just to pour molten lava on our pulsating wounds, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Michael Bourn, Kevin Youkilis and Alfonso Soriano — the day’s third, fifth, seventh, ninth and 10th most popular selections, respectively — each went hitless to snap a combined 16.5 percent of streaks.

This is not a good thing.

I’m not sure when, but some how, some way, I know we can get past this.

Hey look, Kevin Millwood is pitching tonight!

There, I feel better already …

In other streak news, “holidave” made it seven in a row by selecting Mark Reynolds in Home Run Beat the Streak.

Seven days, seven correct homer predictions. That’s pretty incredible.

Four more days of correct selections and “holidave” wins $10,000.

Not too shabby.

Also, we have some excitement going on in Survivor, as “brentandcam” and “charfdorn” each have 20-game streaks going, marking the highest streaks of the season.

17 more correct selections to win $10,000 AND a trip to the 2011 All-Star Game in Phoenix, Ariz.

Very exciting stuff.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Ryan Braun: .491 AVG (8-for-19) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Ted Lilly

? Ryan Howard: .444 AVG (8-for-18) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad)

? Ichiro Suzuki: .414 AVG (12-for-29) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Colby Lewis

(other picks)

? Matt Holliday: .500 AVG (7-for-14) lifetime vs. Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda

? Jorge Cantu: .500 AVG (6-for-12) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick

? Alberto Callaspo: .455 AVG (5-for-11) lifetime vs. Twins starter Kevin Slowey

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Luke Scott: .600 AVG (6-for-10) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Phil Hughes. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Scott is hitless in four of his last eight games. Check please!

You’ll thank me later …

? Billy Butler: .091 AVG (1-for-11) lifetime vs. Twins starter Kevin Slowey

? Chase Utley: .143 AVG (2-for-14) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad

? Justin Morneau: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Royals starter Zack Greinke

? Hanley Ramirez: .222 AVG (4-for-18) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick

Leaderboard time!

Yeah, you know all those users who were tied atop the leaderboard with 30-game streaks yesterday? They all picked Ichiro. Whoops!

That means that our new leaders are a foursome carrying still-pretty-stellar 26-game streaks:

BsblGeenus

SLaGFYmanny

dyno11mike

ecurryjmp2

Best of luck. May your Tuesday be rich with a Kevin Millwood shellacking, a Brian Moehler hit buffet and a Vin Mazarro meltdown.

Top MLB streakers

? Vernon Wells: 14 games

? Elvis Andrus: 12 games

? Martin Prado: 12 games

? Freddy Sanchez: 11 games

? Jeff Francoeur: 10 games

? Jeff Mathis: 10 games (DL)

? Brandon Phillips: 10 games

31 Comments

Going with a traditional pick today:
Cano v. Millwood of O’s – Millwood get hit hard by lefties.
NYY in Survivor
ARod in HR BTS
Hoping that Millwood does not put on his superman underwear and pitch a gem.
Dave’s comments on Ichrio yesterday hit a bullseye. He left out Huff of Indians as someone who could get rocked tonight by RSox.

Chicago Weather Report:
Big rainstorms expected later in the day. ChiSox v. Tigers could be a washout. Floyd is pitching for the ChiSox, his last outing was a awful.

Regarding the leader board blowout. Like the Stock Market dropping from 11K to 10K last month, the BTS Leader Board also makes periodic adjustments/corrections. A bit of luck and planning helps one survive the fallout. Easier said than done. Though I don’t feel the same pain as my highest streak ever has been only 17, I can empathize. Where some of the ex-leaders haven’t had to deal with resets for 3-4 weeks, a lot of us have been dealing with it on a weekly basis during that same time frame, and in many cases several times a week; ugh.

Regarding the leader board blowout. Like the Stock Market dropping from 11K to 10K last month, the BTS Leader Board also makes periodic adjustments/corrections. A bit of luck and planning helps one survive the fallout. Easier said than done. Though I don’t feel the same pain as my highest streak ever has been only 17, I can empathize. Where some of the ex-leaders haven’t had to deal with resets for 3-4 weeks, a lot of us have been dealing with it on a weekly basis during that same time frame, and in many cases several times a week; ugh.

Its the debut of one Stephen Strasburg.
I wonder how many people are picking Washington in Survivor tonite?!

Decisions, Decisions, Hughes (7-1), Yanks against Baltimore. Carpenter (7-1), Cardinals against Dodgers. Neimann (5-0), Tampa against Toronto, Pelfrey (8-1), Mets against san Diego, Strasburg, Nationals against Piraters.

Survivor has 294 people with streaks of ten or more. Thats just insane.

Dont forget to check out our Bloggers group in Survivor,
which until two minutes ago, i didnt even know was there

Rain continuing in Chicago “expected to end after midnight.”
Make your picks accordingly.
LAD v. Cards = 2 good teams
TB v. Toronto = 2 good teams, TB great road team
NYM v. SD = 2 good teams, NYM plays well at home
NYY v. O’s = mismatch
Nats and Strasburg – I would stay away unless your streak is at 0 or 1.

Wow. The Strasburg kid is for real. He is throwing nothing but smokes. His fast ball is 97 to 100. His changeup is 90 to 91. This is really fun watching. And he is just out of HS or college? I remember reading last year about some scout saying he was good as AJ Burnett at that point. Now, he is good as Jimenez. My streak is going nowhere but this is even more fun.

Wow. The Strasburg kid is for real. He is throwing nothing but smokes. His fast ball is 97 to 100. His changeup is 90 to 91. This is really fun watching. And he is just out of HS or college? I remember reading last year about some scout saying he was good as AJ Burnett at that point. Now, he is good as Jimenez. My streak is going nowhere but this is even more fun.

Wow. The Strasburg kid is for real. He is throwing nothing but smokes. His fast ball is 97 to 100. His changeup is 90 to 91. This is really fun watching. And he is just out of HS or college? I remember reading last year about some scout saying he was good as AJ Burnett at that point. Now, he is good as Jimenez. My streak is going nowhere but this is even more fun.

Wow. Cano got a hit. I guess he is this year’s Mauer. Last year, I remember the big streakers went mostly with Ichi and thrown in Mauer here and there. I think I am gonna hit Cano more from now. I was hesitant in the past because he bats 6th. But unlike Mauer, you can’t pitch around Cano because of the Yankees line-up. There weakest hitter is Teix. LOL. Even there nobodys (Gardner, Cervevelli) are hitting 300s.

We’ll all be moving on with Robinson Cano today.

I’m going with Victor Martinez today, with crazy numbers vs LHP and Huff on the mound, should almost be a guarentee.
Plus I’m back to 0 so i have nothing to lose. Gonna try a bit of a different stategy for the next little bit. Ill let y’all know how it works out. GL to the masses that are going Cano tonight. And good luck to “holidave” i couldnt even get to 2 so 7 is pretty freaking sweet.

M

HR beat the streak
1 holidave 7– Kevin Youkilis
2 cnielson 5— Jason Heyward
3 dewsenate 4 –Jorge Cantu
3 hawaiisensation13 4– Nick Swisher (Now 5) HR in first inning tonite
3 mom23boys 4 — Ryan Howard
3 whyoh 4— Jorge Cantu

damn…Cano already has a hit.

I went with Marco Scutaro.

I hope it was not a mistake.

Survivor Tale of the Tape:

New York Yankees 40.7%
Washington Nationals 8.3%
Colorado Rockies 7.0%
Tampa Bay Rays 6.2%
Minnesota Twins 4.8%
Los Angeles Angels 4.5%
Atlanta Braves 4.1%
Boston Red Sox 3.5%
New York Mets 3.0%
St. Louis Cardinals 2.8%
Detroit Tigers 2.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 1.9%
Texas Rangers 1.8%
Philadelphia Phillies 1.7%
San Francisco Giants 1.3%

Beat the Streak Tale of the Tape
Robinson Cano NYY 20.0% 1-for-1
Ryan Braun MIL 5.5% 0-for-0
Ichiro Suzuki SEA 4.6% 0-for-0
Kevin Youkilis BOS 3.9% 0-for-0
Miguel Cabrera DET 3.7% 0-for-0
Derek Jeter NYY 3.7% 0-for-0
Adrian Beltre BOS 3.1% 0-for-0
Johnny Damon DET 2.9% 0-for-0
Troy Tulowitzki COL 2.9% 0-for-0
Joe Mauer MIN 2.7% 0-for-0
Albert Pujols STL 1.8% 0-for-0
Dustin Pedroia BOS 1.6% 0-for-0
Ryan Howard PHI 1.6% 0-for-0
Evan Longoria TB 1.5% 0-for-0
Justin Morneau MIN 1.4% 0-for-0

Today’s Top Picks of the current Top2500. All games included, 150 different players picked overall.
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Robinson Cano, 729, 29.16%
Ryan Braun, 150, 6
Ichiro Suzuki, 142, 5.68
Troy Tulowitzki, 131, 5.24
Derek Jeter, 99, 3.96
Kevin Youkilis, 96, 3.84
Miguel Cabrera, 69, 2.76
Adrian Beltre, 53, 2.12
Johnny Damon, 48, 1.92
Joe Mauer, 44, 1.76
Evan Longoria, 41, 1.64
Omir Santos, 37, 1.48
Carl Crawford, 36, 1.44
Martin Prado, 34, 1.36
… No Selection, 27, 1.08
Highest “No Selection”: Page 3 with a streak of 20 now reset to zero.

MLB website showing Strasburg first four innings.
i dont know how many people saw this on the main page this evening.
Andy LaRoche gets the first hit off Strasburg.
strikes out the side in the second inning.

LAVO, do you actually go through all 100 pages or how do you get those numbers

backrubs – FYI – Dave “Grande Amigo” Feldman has lavolpe hidden away in a sub basement at Yankee Stadium chained to a computer. He brings him beer, hot dogs and giant pretzels so really it’s not such a bad deal. LOL
champion – Scutaro was a good pick today hang tight and good luck.
A tip of my Cub hat to holidave for his 7 game streak in HR BTS. I had 7 home runs in HR BTS too —— yea 7 for the entire month of April. I did manage a “streak” of 2 games this year—yipee!
Vinny – You called Swisher and he came through in HR BTS.

first year i played HR streak, one guy had 7 and picked Biggio for either to tie. Biggio hit a homerun but before replay, the umps held their conference and only gave him a triple on a ball clearly over the wall by 4 feet.

Only thing is now there is one more pitcher to avoid for BTS. So much tougher this year as it is. There is awful lot of close to perfect games this year as it is. Matt Cain alone was like close twice already. And Brewers just throw out Suppan. That is a shame. He saved tons of Pujols pickers just 3 days ago with his brilliant pitching.

Must avoid pitchers now: Strasburg, Jimenez, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Niemann, Lee, Lester, Pelfry, Holliday (maybe), Leake, Zito, Latos, Carpenter, Gio, Haren (probably soon), Hensen, Galaragga, Greinke (most likely soon), & surprisingly even Silva!

@backrubs. Going thru all 100 pages to gather the data, sure let’s say that…. :) Nope, I program for a living. So, wrote a little app that downloads the 100 pages and tallies the data; about 10 mins of work. Because it is painless, I don’t mind sharing the data and think it is interesting to compare against the general field posted in the BTS Results page. But, I can’t run it from work (policy), so it must wait til I get home; so on weekdays, I miss the early game results as BTS updates/removes the resets.

That’s how u’re never going to win this game avoiding THAT many pitchers. I’ve picked Mauer vs. Lee who got a hit & Guerrero was my 2nd choice yesterday vs. Lee who got a hit.

I guess there is no automatic Ichiro bounce back after 0-fer. Darn. I should have taken Cano. I had a slight queasy feeling about picking Ichiro today. Something about him is different this year. Last 10 days, he is actually taking lot more balls and fouling off quite a bit of pitches.

I am wondering if the manager prodded him to tire out the starting pitchers as a strategy. He has gone into 9 to 10 foul offs in numerous at bats.

I’m calling the slaughter rule for the Yankees vs. Orioles game tonight. Alex Rodriguez is 0 – 5 as the Yanks are in blowout mode.

With the exception of Cano, the picks were spread around a bit. But not a hitter’s night for many. On the 1st page, 10 dropped due to 0-fers by: M.Cabrera, Butler, F.Sanchez, Braun, Pedroia & Ichiro.

damn…I am REALLY mad at myself!

due to a combination of the board talking up Scutaro over the past few days and myself bewildered by Martinez’s extreme splits, I talked myself out of using Victor Martinez, in favor of Scutaro and I got burned.

my own logic was that a .482/.215 left/right split was dangerous, since Huff would probably get rocked and only get 2 AB against Huff, which is only average and would then get only 3 AB against a righty, which is below average.

is this reasoning sound?

champion: I don’t believe much in taking picks because they were hyped by other people. I think the reasoning is alright in regards to splits (you don’ t expect a guy to bat around .500 against lefties all year) but this isn’t a game about reasoning, it’s a game of luck. So take the guy you feel most confident in. If you don’t like V.Mart, don’t take him, but take a guy you feel confident in, not a guy everyone else feels confident in.

So is today the day Ichi will get a rest?? After two straight 0-fers and facing another hard throwing lefty (CJ Wilson.) I would think he might sit today. BUT that’s just me speculating, havnt seen or heard anything that says he will or will not play. GL to all tonight. Of course my one day that I would be able to sit and watch an afternoon game there aren’t any, oh well.
M

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