Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, June 18-20

kinslerBTS2.jpg

Robinson Cano (who else?) and Adrian Beltre each laced hits last
night to stomp on the fast forward button for a combined 22.8 percent
of our streakers.

Derek Jeter was the day’s biggest doom’s day device,
extinguishing the lifelines of 9.9 percent of the universe all by his
lonesome self.

Moving on, Interleague Play continues this weekend, as strange uniform
combinations and awkward American League pitchers taking the batter’s
box awaits us.

This is never not fun. I just set a Google alert to notify me every time cousin Scotty heads to the plate for tonight.

On to the weekend’s picks …

Oh, hello there ...

Friday

?  Ian Kinsler: .750 AVG (9-for-12) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Nate Robertson

? Bobby Abreu: .550 AVG (11-for-20) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Carlos Silva

? Scott Rolen: .538 AVG (7-for-13) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Cliff Lee

Saturday

? Hideki Matsui: .545 AVG (6-for-11) since ’05 vs. Cubs starter Ted Lilly

? Victor Martinez: .429 AVG (6-for-14) lifetime vs. Dodgers starter Vicente Padilla

? Ryan Braun: .500 AVG (4-for-8) lifetime vs. Rockies starter Jeff Francis

Sunday

? Derek Jeter: .433 AVG (13-for-30) lifetime vs. Twins starter Johan Santana

? Jim Thome: .429 AVG (12-for-28) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Halladay

? Nick Markakis: .429 AVG (6-for-14) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland

Feeling kinda spicy?

Friday

?  Adam Kennedy: .571 AVG (4-for-7) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Gavin Floyd

Saturday

? Orlando Cabrera: .500 AVG (16-for-32) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Felix Hernandez

Sunday

? Luke Scott: .545 AVG (6-for-11) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland

You’ll thank me later …

Friday

? Hanley Ramirez: .200 AVG (2-for-10) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza

? Jose Reyes: .188 AVG (3-for-16) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Javier Vazquez

Saturday

? Johnny Damon: .136 AVG (3-for-22) lifetime vs. Diamondbacks starter Edwin Jackson

? Adrian Beltre: .179 AVG (7-for-39) lifetime vs. Dodgers starter Vicente Padilla

Sunday

? Troy Tulowitzki: .188 AVG (3-for-16) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Randy Wolf

? Alex Rodriguez: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Mets starter Johan Santana

Leaderboard time!

“fromomma” hopped on the Michael Young gravy train to extend his streak
to a knee-bending 35 games. “fromomma”is now one more hit away from
tying “cruj” for the season lead.

Expect an e-mail from me, “fromomma”, if you somehow survive
this weekend, so you can succumb to the
I-just-got-featured-on-the-blog,-my-streak-will-now-vanish curse.

Or something like that.

It was a dark day in Surivovr, as our fearless leader(s),
“brentandcam” saw a 29-game streak go down in flames courtesy of the
Yankees’ loss to the Phillies.

Well, that was fun while it lasted. “brentandcam” is/are still in play
for tickets to the 2011 All-Star Game in Phoenix, if the 29-game streak
turns out to be the longest of the season. So all is not lost just yet.

Top MLB streakers

? Vladimir Guerrero: 13 games

? Josh Hamilton: 13 games

? Jose Guillen: 12 games

? Jeff Mathis: 10 games (no more DL!)

? Robinson Cano: 10 games 

87 Comments

Hi there,

You got the wrong team for Friday’s pick…Ian Kinsler is facing Wandy Rodriguez and the ‘stros tonight, not the
Marlins

I had Jetervbut is 0 foe 11 so far this week so changed to Cano. Padres in Survivor and A Rod in HR BTS. Good luck to all today and this weekend.

Personally, I’m trusting Delmon Young tonight…I know there’re safer picks but as Pierre Corneille, the famous 17th century French writer, put it once:
“Triumph without peril brings no glory”.
Given that he’s facing Blanton (317 opp avg), and that he had 1 hit vs Jimenez yesterday (‘double dog dare you’ were your words…:-), I feel confident about it.

As someone said before, I am beginning to see more that this is a game against the game. It really does not matter what others pick really. Even at the streak of 20, one is 37 games away. Until you get to 30, its not much to get all excited about. Its like getting 3 out 6 #s in lottery.

Going with Kendrick today. Am at 1, so why not….. :)

I am going to help out Lav and say the highest no selection is page 8 with a streak of 16 now reset to zero.

@vinny: Thanx, when I get home I should have complete stats for the Top2500. BTS shouldn’t beat me today.

BTS isn’t going to beat me anymore. Going to make smart picks not popular ones. Jeter isn’t a good pick as he is 0 for 11 this week so far and yet he is still one of the most picked. Ur welcome Lav and I hope top 2 fall so we have a better shot at the 3 mill.

If history repeats itself, as it has done for the past 10 years here, the top 2500 will ALL fall before September & that suits me fine since I’m at zero right now ;)

Ahem, chicken Angels. Only the 4th inning and intentionally walking Theriot to get to the pitcher. Go Cubs!!

Interesting Leader Page: 7 of first 8 picked different batters; kind of rare to see that, huh?

Friday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500. All games included, 132 different batters picked overall
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Justin Morneau, 285, 11.4%
Ichiro Suzuki, 232, 9.28
Martin Prado, 200, 8.00
Robinson Cano, 193, 7.72
Joe Mauer, 168, 6.72
Ian Kinsler, 152, 6.08
Albert Pujols, 90, 3.6
Michael Young, 84, 3.36
Miguel Cabrera, 622.48
Derek Jeter, 60, 2.4
Carl Crawford, 57, 2.28
Vladimir Guerrero, 57, 2.28
Bobby Abreu, 54, 2.16
Nate McLouth, 48, 1.92
Josh Hamilton, 44, 1.76
Evan Longoria, 44, 1.76
Troy Tulowitzki, 35, 1.4
No Selection, 35, 1.4
Highest “No Selection”: Page #8 with a streak of 16 now reset to zero per Vinny ;)

The Rockies placed Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list with a broken left wrist today…atleast it doesn’t reset any streaks

oh, but it does slow our current leader down a game

could we pick same players in two days

You can pick the same player for 57 straight games if they played that many in a row. I’m starting to kick myself for picking Daniel Nava of the Boston Red Sox for today’s BTS. Not sure what I was thinking. Again I get a decent streak going and now it’s in jeopardy. He still has at least 2 more ABs, so I guess I shouldn’t give up on him until the game is over.

@nymets: Nava? 9th place batter at home? Wow, you do like a challenge, don’t you?

The blog group is adding some class I see.
“Triumph without preil brings no glory.”
I think that Pierre Cornielle played for the Cubs in the 1950’s and the quote – I heard it some where. I really think that it is from Professor Yogi Berra. lol
nice reference by a new blogger – renaudtn
Cano has me worried – My only smart move so far was not going with the “hot” Bryd of Cubs.

Oh I do lavolpe. I think this was a level 5 challenge and I’m not used to one that high. We shall see though. Wish me luck, I may need it. Even though he has had 8 hits in 5 games. Should have at least one this game.

I was looking ahead to tomorrow’s games and I was thinking of going with Adrian Gonzalez. I know he is 0-4 against Millwood, but everyone is hitting Millwood this year so I think he will get a hit. He is now riding a 7 game hit streak too so he is swinging a pretty hot bat. I was just wondering what everyone else thought. Is that a good pick you think? I only have a 2-gamer going but it would be nice to start a long streak since my best is only 10 this year.

well, I guess it did not matter that I fell into the Byrd trap, since Guerrero went hitless anyway.

but why the hell did the Rangers pull him out leading by 6 runs in the 7th inning, when he himself had a 13-game hitting streak going and a guaranteed additional AB to come?

what the hell?

SATURDAY – JUNE 19

OUT OF THE LINEUP

-DEREK JETER (BRUISED HEEL)
-ALFONSO SORIANO

Satruday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500. All games included, 139 different batters picked overall
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Kevin Youkilis, 323, 12.92%
Robinson Cano, 195, 7.8
Michael Young, 184, 7.36
Ichiro Suzuki, 182, 7.28
Josh Hamilton, 179, 7.16
Albert Pujols, 124, 4.96
Magglio Ordonez, 96, 3.84
Ryan Braun, 83, 3.32
Andrew McCutchen, 80, 3.2
Vladimir Guerrero, 71, 2.84
Victor Martinez, 71, 2.84
Adrian Beltre, 53, 2.12
No Selection, 52, 2.08
Aubrey Huff, 41, 1.64
Miguel Cabrera, 37, 1.48
Highest “No Selection”: Page #14 with a streak of 14 now reset to zero.
Yesterday hurt the Top2500 a bit with 31% being reset.

Kevin Youkilis, 323, 12.92%
Albert Pujols, 124, 4.96
Vladimir Guerrero, 71, 2.84
Victor Martinez, 71, 2.84
No Selection, 52, 2.08″

No wonder we are having such high reset days recently!

Youkilis is hitting barely over .200 over the last 2 weeks and gets walked a lot.

Pujols is supposed to be on the “no-pick” list and facing Ben Sheets is not exactly a favorable matchup.

Victor Martinez hits like .230 against right-handers.

It was announced that Vladimir Guerrero is not starting today.

And 52 more people forget to make a pick!

Right here, we could have 25%+ eliminated right here.

And for those not aware, there are 100 pages, 25 people per page which comprise the Top2500. Just a 1% reset = a full page of 25 people reset. So yesterday, 31% reset = 31 pages (31×25 or 775 people) dropped back to zero.
People have asked why I monitor Top2500? My answer is simple, they are the ones ahead of me that I can monitor. BTS doesn’t provide stats for all active players. I also find it interesting how the Top2500 compare/differ from the field’s stats posted in the “Results” page, not to mention the unexplicable number of no-picks that occur every day.

I went with Gardner. As soon as I heard him about Jeter being out and seeing him in the lead off spot. You just get this warm feeling. Looked at the stats and everythign lined up perfectly. Even the fact that he hasn’t hit in 3 days. I overlooked him initially because I am always looking at only Cano and Jeter in the Yanks. I figure he was due for 5 ABs most likely. Didn’t need to wait. I wish it was this easy everyday.

“No wonder we are having such high reset days recently!”

You never know with this game. How about Morneau yesterday? If you also look at “you will thank me pick” by the blog guy, most of the guys end up getting hits. I remember first 3 days he was on, every single one of the bad picks got hits.

Agreed: Stats are a suggestion only. My last streak breaker was with Ethier hitting well for past 2 games and owned pitcher but goes 0-4. Since then he has no hits, so I picked him at the beginning of his current slump — how can one tell? I see the picks of all the Top2500 and you’d be surprised at some of those picks: 7-9 place hitters batting below 250 and get hits. Others pick 330 and above batters that go 0-fer. No rhyme nor reason; just a matter of picking heads or tells correctly 57 times in a row!

The game has gotten harder this year.
Why? As the Chinese name the year after an animal, the 2010 Baseball Season is now named after a player position.
” 2010 The Year of the Pitcher” Steroid Era over and the pendelum has swung back to the mound.
Saturday results – Hits by entire team:
Cubs – 2
SF – 4
Wash – 3
LAD – 5
Cinn – 5
Houstn – 2
StLouis – 6 (They won)
GL on Sunday!

Sunday June 20
Happy Father’s Day to all Dad bloggers.

BTS – Mty pick – Raul Ibanez v. Zambano of Cubs. Ibanez is hitting .360 lifetime at Wrigley Field. Carlos Zambrano is in a shambles again this year. Will the good or evil Zambrano be on the hill today? Will Zambrano hit a HR – I would love to be able to take him in HR BTS as my streak there is at the usual big zero.
Is Dave Feldman off the Bloggers group? I do not see his name? I sent him an email about this and he did not respond? Has he be muzzled by the “suits” in legal dept.
I thought it was great that he was in the “hunt” with the bloggers group. We all knew he was not eligible to win it but it was fun to see his picks each day. As he suffered like the rest of us.

Ooops………
Not Raul Ibanez today………
Bobby Abreau v. Zambrano for my pick.

Just letting everybody know. Hanley is out on Sunday and I chose Braunin BTS, Padres to try to get to 7 in Survivor be Fielder in HR BTS.

got ichiro today vs harang in bts… GL today to everyone and happy father day

Kinda hard to imagine so many people with streaks of 25 or more.. but here is your leaders picks

1 dick.george 36 Martin Prado
1 fromomma 36 Alex Rios
3 kbarr9 33 Albert Pujols
4 aydinalp1 30 Martin Prado
4 lfinnberg 30 Martin Prado
4 steve_giannini 30 Ichiro Suzuki
7 death2fowl 29 Ryan Braun
8 gary71349 28 Martin Prado
8 rudypugh 28 Vladimir Guerrero
10 RangersGuy 27 Josh Hamilton
10 bschneider 27 Ichiro Suzuki
10 randy_rowe 27Placido Polanco
13 ecfraz 26 Ichiro Suzuki
13 izzylee 26 Ichiro Suzuki
13 mhassoun15 26 Martin Prado
13 mmoyn29 26 Dustin Pedroia
13 tonwil39 26 Orlando Cabrera
13 walterkenney29 26 Ichiro Suzuki
13 worstguybrm81 26 Ichiro Suzuki
20 davidsmiller7 25 Martin Prado
20 holmz3 25 Ichiro Suzuki

Ichiro is 1-for-12 career vs. Harang.

Sunday’s Top Picks of the current Top 2500. All games included, 147 different batters picked overall
Player, Times Picked, Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki, 529, 21.16%
Ryan Braun, 290, 11.6
Martin Prado, 270, 10.8
Brandon Phillips, 103, 4.12
Michael Young, 81, 3.24
Robinson Cano, 77, 3.08
Nick Markakis, 60, 2.4
Miguel Cabrera, 53, 2.12
Derek Jeter, 52, 2.08
Josh Hamilton, 48, 1.92
Adrian Beltre, 47, 1.88
Albert Pujols, 41, 1.64
No Selection, 39, 1.56
Vladimir Guerrero, 35, 1.4
Highest “No Selection”: Page #2 with a streak of 23 now back to zero.
Yesterday was a good day for the Top2500 having only 16% get reset.
Top2500 Bloggers Group:
UserName, Streak, Page #, Pick
blanco21, 12, pg28, Chase Utley
yanks22442, 9, pg69, Bobby Abreu
kenfucious:, 8, pg100, Troy Tulowitzki

Went with Ichiro. Harang’s #s against lefties sealed the deal for me. I am confidant even if Ace Harang from a couple of years ago show up, I chiro will be able to muster one cheap base hit out somehow. I was also thinking about Rios as well.

Most of the leaders on the first page seems to mad pretty solid picks from what I can gather.

“Saturday results – Hits by entire team:
Cubs – 2
SF – 4
Wash – 3
LAD – 5
Cinn – 5
Houstn – 2
StLouis – 6 (They won)
GL on Sunday!”

Eh, these stats are not very convincing though.

The Giants and Astros have horrible offenses.

Felix was pitching against the Reds.

The Cards have a mediocre offense, since Pujols gets a lot of walks.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

On top of that, the Twins beat the Phillies 13-10 in 11 Innings yesterday with 9 combined HR’s.

“Is Dave Feldman off the Bloggers group? I do not see his name? I sent him an email about this and he did not respond? Has he be muzzled by the “suits” in legal dept.
I thought it was great that he was in the “hunt” with the bloggers group. We all knew he was not eligible to win it but it was fun to see his picks each day. As he suffered like the rest of us.”

Honestly, I have no clue why MLB employees are not allowed to play and win?

I think it would be fun to work at MLB for a living, but upon learning that I could not play BTS anymore, my interest evaporated?

I would love to know the reasoning behind this rule?

“Ooops………
Not Raul Ibanez today………
Bobby Abreau v. Zambrano for my pick.”

Why did you reject Ibanez?

“Ichiro Suzuki, 529, 21.16%
Ryan Braun, 290, 11.6
Martin Prado, 270, 10.8″

Wow, just 3 players control 44.0% of the top 2500 picks.

That could be MAJOR damage if these fail.

And Prado is already 0 for 2!

Looks like survivor is going to take a hit as well.
Tampa, and texas are both losing right now

So who had F.Sanchez in the HR BTS? Not me, but his 1st homer in the 6th gave my Survivor pick the lead!

DeJesus with a 3rd at-bat double. Cano or bust for me tomorrow.

damn, Prado is gonna hit 7 times at this rate.

the Braves have tied it up now, but do not move ahead, so Prado is likely to hit 6 times before the game ends, more if it goes extra innings.

LOL. Some father’s day! Looks to be shaping out to be a bad day for pappas. Especially the 2 in the 20s who forgot to pick. I blame this on Lady Gaga!

Matt Holliday is RED hot right now.

Kansas City. 9 walks. This is a team that hits like mad but their pitchers get hit even harder.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

And they STILL might win the game!

Kimbrel has walked two and made a HUGE error.

It could be 2 outs, 1 on, instead of 0 outs, 3 on.

I do not know what the hell this umpire is doing.

Anyone wanting an explanation for the Royals’ 9 walks.

Just click over to MLB.com Gameday and look at Kimbrel’s 0-1 pitch to DeJesus.

There is NO WAY that is a ball. It is right down the middle!

absolutely freaking unbelievable.

the Royals load the bases with no one out on 12 pitches, including 7 balls, with the bottom of their order, guys with batting averages of .182,.207, and a pinch-hitter.

they had DeJesus, Aviles, and Butler up with those bases loaded, guys with batting averages of .328, .312, and .331.

they do NOT score.

these three could not even ground into a force or sac fly.

and now Prado is basically assured a 6th AB now.

thanks Royals: way to give the keys to the leader

eh, Prado got the hit in the 8th and the Braves won in regulation, so it did not end up mattering.

Ichiro is still 0 for 2 though, so hopefully we can get some form of elimination here on BTS.

For Survivor, the Rays lost, but the Rangers have tied it up at 4 in the 9th.

If anyone is following Hamilton, he seems to alternate really strong performances with marginal performances lately.

Like today, he is 4 for 5, so we expect a 1 for 4 or maybe 0 for 4 his next game. Then, in his second to next game, we would expect him to be a good pick.

Even if I didn’t pick Ichiro, I’d be surprised to see him go 0-fer against Harang; regardless of his history. Harang just isn’t good this year.
Less than a 10% reset as of now (assuming Ichiro gets a hit), but the night game, TEX & CIN games have potential to add to the streak; does look like another good day for the Top2500; final tallies will be posted tomorrow.
Any predictions for Survior & BTS tomorrow? Here’s mine:
BTS: Cano/Jeter tally about 50-60% of Top2500
Survivor: NYY tally about 98-99% of the entire field. Only those praying that the AZ can win will pick another team.

haha, I really doubt the number will be 98% Yankees, especially with the Yankees on the road.

I usually have a policy of not looking at the next day’s games, until every game on the current day is final, but since I know there are only 3 games, I was curious if you know any players on those teams that are positively not playing tomorrow, because of any minor injuries?

Or are you anticipating any roster moves that might send Player X to the minors tomorrow?

If you pick Player X and get him into your account, they cannot take him away from you and he counts as a safe “no pick” for tomorrow.

Why would anyone want to not pick tomorrow: throw all the NYY player names in a hat and pick one. Most of them have a history with the AZ starter too. If there is a gimme in this game, it very well may be tomorrow. As for Survivor, AZ strikes out about 10x per game and would be fortunate to score 4 runs; even if NYY pitcher isn’t one of the aces. Add to this that AZ is a home-run park this year; I do expect NYY to tally in the upper 90 percentile tomorrow; but we’ll see.

ha, even when the Yankees played the Orioles at home, they only collected a 65% share.

while having only 3 games will definitely increase their share, I doubt it would be 32 points of movement!

I think it might be advantageous to use a safe “no-pick,” on a day when two or three picks are going to have super concentrations of picks on them.

If those fail, you could move past quite a lot of people in the standings!

Ichiro Suzuki, 529, 21.16%: OUT
Ryan Braun, 290, 11.6: SUCCESS
Martin Prado, 270, 10.8: SUCCESS
Brandon Phillips, 103, 4.12: OUT
Michael Young, 81, 3.24: OUT
Robinson Cano, 77, 3.08: OUT
Nick Markakis, 60, 2.4: SUCCESS
Miguel Cabrera, 53, 2.12: SUCCESS
Derek Jeter, 52, 2.08: SUCCESS
Josh Hamilton, 48, 1.92: SUCCESS
Adrian Beltre, 47, 1.88: TONIGHT
Albert Pujols, 41, 1.64: SUCCESS
No Selection, 39, 1.56: OUT
Vladimir Guerrero, 35, 1.4: OUT
Highest “No Selection”: Page #2 with a streak of 23 now back to zero.
Yesterday was a good day for the Top2500 having only 16% get reset.

Out of the Top 2500, 34.56% were reset with another 1.88% available tonight with Beltre.

It won’t matter with me as Ichiro just took me down again but Corky Miller won’t be catching tomorrow for sure. He catched today so Ramon is back on for tomorrow. And they would use a batgirl to pinch hit before this guy. Plus, they’re playing in Oakland so no need to pinch hit for pitchers.

I am presuming Chad Moeller is a safe pick too. Posada will catch tomorrow with probably Cevelli as a back-up. Actually, look pretty easy. Bryan Pena caught today for KC. He is not gonna play for a long time. LOL! I guess all the regulars are being rested today for tomorrow.

“Out of the Top 2500, 34.56% were reset with another 1.88% available tonight with Beltre.”

Yeah but who cares about resetting of streakers with less than 15 to be generous. I don’t find this top 2500 countdown to be that much helpful because 95% of these people won’t even see 15. Anyone with less than 25 streaks is absolutely no threat.

Its like taking comfort in other’s streaks breaking but this game is really just a race against the game. I am actually getting somewhat worried about the 2 leaders. Now, they’re in the danger zone. Any stretch of easy pickings coming up and they can shoot to 40s easily from here. Dick.

“Also, is 38 a threat really? That’s just 2/3rds way there with another 19 game hit streak required to win it all. Anyone with a streak of 25 or greater had to start at one; so all streaks, until mathematically eliminated, have potential.”

It is a threat in the sense that it is pushing the consolation prize higher.

Until today, we could all aim for 37, which is a lot more reachable than 57.

Now, we risk the consolation prize going to 40 or higher.

wow, I love how my current post just slotted in 6 posts back.

Dave, if you are reading these posts, in addition to wondering why MLB employees are ineligible to play BTS, could you explain why the posting system constantly mixes up the order of the posts?

Add Will Nieves too. Scratch Bryan Pena. He does seem to pinch hit here & there although I don’t think he will tomorrow. Just found Oakland back-up caught today. I also don’t feel that comfortable about Yankees because they’re playing in AZ. Jeter does not hit well away so his awesome #s against Rodrigo is less potent. I actually hope the leaders pick Cano & Jeter and both lose their streak tomorrow.

Corky Miller
Landon Powell
Will Nieves
Chad Moeller

@btsplayer: “anyone with less than 25 streaks is absolutely no threat”. Anyone with streaks greater than yous is as good a threat as those with 25. History has proven that no one can reach 50; so all streaks are equally doomed, whether 40, 30, 20, or 10, until someone does break 57.
Today had potential for sweetness but has turned sour; all games in except the night game & sitting at a 42% reset, including 50+ just within the 1st 5 pages. Tomorrow is another day; another start?

Also, is 38 a threat really? That’s just 2/3rds way there with another 19 game hit streak required to win it all. Anyone with a streak of 25 or greater had to start at one; so all streaks, until mathematically eliminated, have potential.

“History has proven that no one can reach 50″

“Also, is 38 a threat really?”

The thing is history at such numbers is very limited. Once you past 30, you only need 3 to 4 good lucks going your way to patch together days of easy picks. In 4 yrs, I’ve been playing this, high streak leaders never died easily. At least half the time, it was due to freak events (ph, ejection, taken out of game, injury, etc). I tell you, many who got past 40 just needed that one day to turn their way to make it to 57. It was really was that close. Only dumb pick I remember was last year when somebody oddly picked Derek Jeter against Holliday.

What Dick.George got today was pure luck. He just needs maybe 3 more of those his way and he can get to 57.

What worries about Dick.George is he actually picks really odd picks that comes through on the days when popular picks perish. That Justin Morneau pick from 2 days ago does not make any sense.

Most of the leaders who end up perishing not due to freak events do so by pressure. They feel more need to pick name brand picks as their streaks go higher. If you look @ the all time list, almost everyone died of 4 Horsemen (Ichi, Mauer, Hanley, Jeter). The current leaders actally have been pretty good at staying away from popular picks which makes them even more threatening. Anyway, that is enough rambling for now.

I agree @btsplayer. I think the biggest freak event I remember was when the leader picked Ichiro vs. Kenny Rogers. I think he was 0-3 & Rogers hit him on his 4th at-bat. If I remember correctly he wasn’t just the leader, but this game’s all-time leader.

Monday will be interesting:
BTS- Cano v. AZ – I like his chances
HR – Cano – Az is a HR park?
Survivor – Yankees

Yeah. I remember that. We all breathed collective sigh. I think the whole board was in joyous mood when Ichiro got hit by a pitch. I don’t ever recally Ichiro getting hit by a pitch since then because he is always swininging or half-way down the first base already.

I remember prkid had one of the Tigers, their top hitters got taken out after 2ABs each because they were being blown out.

How about that woman from lasty year with Votto. She simply couldn’t stomach his ejection. I felt really bad for her. Although she was only in mid 30s I think.

“Yeah. I remember that. We all breathed collective sigh. I think the whole board was in joyous mood when Ichiro got hit by a pitch.”

lol, not exactly.

One guy that did not seem like a serious player, kept taunting that, “If Player X goes to the well one more time with Ichiro, he will get burned.”

And when that happened, he was sooo happy!

Every time someone brought him up, he would say, “See, I TOLD YOU! HAHA!”

the board was split between those who were happy to have seen him failed and those who were mad that that guy would not stop gloating.

but that was the only real activity on the boards that year.

most daily posts only had 1 or 2 posts max and sometimes there were days with no activity.

“”If Player X goes to the well one more time with Ichiro, he will get burned.””

I remember that now. He was using some psuedo-Eastern Confucious ramblings too in his prediction. That was hilarious. I wonder if that guys still plays.

I am now thinking whether Kenny Rogers hit Ichiro out of spite. That Rogers himself played BTS and he did not like the upfront the leader showed by picking Ichiro against him. That was Rogers last season so he had nothing to lose.

Kenny Rogers plays BTS?

Since when? What interview did he say that in?

@btsplayer: “I tell you, many who got past 40 just needed that one day to turn their way to make it to 57″
Guess depends on how one looks at it. I look at it this way: Unless their streak consisted of mostly multiple hit games, they were exceeding their luck. Why? What’s the difference between a 1 hit and no-hit game? Besides the obvious, it’s a 1 inch difference in the pitch in any direction, a ball hit 20 feet shorter/longer, starting the bat a split second earlier/later and quite a few more variables. Putting the bat on the ball is skill, where that ball actually lands is mostly luck. Getting a really long streak is a freak of nature.

“Getting a really long streak is a freak of nature.”

Your logic explains why 99.9999% will fail at this. But with so many people playing, there will be one that will some how slip through. And this game is not completely random luck. If it was, I would be less worried. But there is some amount of skill involved. For instance, Fromma’s pick of Rios today was a good pick. He figured out that Rios kills everything during the day time. He has done it all season. I was debating between Ichiro and Rios today. As soon as I saw Fromma’s pick, I thought at least one move on for tomorrow.

You need some amount good picking and definitely a good amount of luck. I really think Dick.George had his today. 9 Walks! Everything else being equal, w/o the walks, he should not have had the fifth at bat.

“Kenny Rogers plays BTS?

Since when? What interview did he say that in?”

I was just postulating. I bet though the Gambler ate the Roaster at least once.

Playing this game takes skill? Pffft. There is absolutely no skill involved. That’s like saying there’s skill in calling heads or tails or picking lotto numbers . If skill were involved, we’d have a winner every year.
Rios was a “good pick” only because he got a hit; if he didn’t get a hit then someone would have came up with rationale why. Ichirio was a bad pick why? Let the rationale flow; but if he did get a hit, then what a great pick! Pfffft
Someone with skill out there: after the game is locked, look at the Top2500 list I put up. Then put your skill on the line and tell us (for just a third of them) why they are a good pick or bad pick.
If skill were involved in picking, 50+ times in a row, players to get, we’d be MLB managers or bookies.

^^ Oh, and for that “skill challenge”, tell us why they are good or bad before they got a hit or batted twice whichever comes first ;)
I enjoy the game for what it is: a game of chance; nothing more except the $3MIL payout of course.

“Guess depends on how one looks at it. I look at it this way: Unless their streak consisted of mostly multiple hit games, they were exceeding their luck. Why? What’s the difference between a 1 hit and no-hit game? Besides the obvious, it’s a 1 inch difference in the pitch in any direction, a ball hit 20 feet shorter/longer, starting the bat a split second earlier/later and quite a few more variables. Putting the bat on the ball is skill, where that ball actually lands is mostly luck. Getting a really long streak is a freak of nature.”

Not necessarily. If the ball was pitched a little higher or a little lower, the batter could still have made the adjustments to swing there.

And if the hit was a double in the gap, it could have been placed in quite a few locations, before it would be caught.

The only place I agree with you is if that 1 hit is an infield single. For that, there are only a few zones on the infield where an infield hit is possible and even then, you need to have pretty good speed.

Unless the ball takes a bad hop and you get a generous official scorer.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

To add to the above (I wish there was an edit key!):

Say you adjust all the pitches thrown up 2 mm for a batter over the course of the game.

Well, yes, his hit might turn into a groundout, but an earlier popout might turn into a hit as a result.

So it is not that simple.

“I really think Dick.George had his today. 9 Walks! Everything else being equal, w/o the walks, he should not have had the fifth at bat.”

That is a complicated issue as well.

You have to decide what the outcome of those walks would have been.

Do you really think those would have all been outs, had Davies come over the plate?

Would he have only allowed 4 baserunners over 8 IP?

It is likely that lots of those walks would have turned into hits, which is where Prado could have gotten his hit from: in that walk.

Even if he does get some of those people out, then the Braves are trailing heading into the 8th Inning and that 3-run inning ties things up and maybe Prado gets a hit in extra innings.

Remember the 20-inning game between the Cardinals and Mets this year?

The Cardinals should have ended the game several times, since they constantly left runners on, nearly every inning.

But then Pujols got his hit in the 17th Inning.

You might argue that he got lucky, but wasn’t he just as unlucky to have the manager think it to be a good idea to put the pitcher’s spot right behind him for all those extra innings, robbing Pujols of extra AB’s?

You can always say something is lucky, but you also have to look for places where he was unlucky too.

And more often than not, those factors cancel each other out.

“Playing this game takes skill? Pffft. There is absolutely no skill involved. That’s like saying there’s skill in calling heads or tails or picking lotto numbers . If skill were involved, we’d have a winner every year.”

Well, the heads/tails issue is not really valid, because you are in a static environment with only two perfectly equal outcomes being valid.

If your theory holds, then everyone’s batting average at the end should be the same, or within five points of each other.

The lotto numbers issue is more complicated, but I think if one put enough research in, you could get 5/6 numbers within one year’s time.

Also, if your definition of a game requiring skill is to have a winner every year, then you should play the HR contest. They have had a few winners already.

“Rios was a “good pick” only because he got a hit; if he didn’t get a hit then someone would have came up with rationale why. Ichirio was a bad pick why? Let the rationale flow; but if he did get a hit, then what a great pick! Pfffft”

I do not think Rios was a good pick today.

That is where the luck factor comes in.

But if you rely on luck alone, you are bound to get burned.

Ichiro is a great example of this.

Ichiro was a bad pick today, simply because he is not hitting well right now AND has bad numbers against Harang.

Considering that Interleague play is on a 3-year rotation basis, we can pretty safely assume that Ichiro was in his prime the last time he faced Harang.

And yet Harang had owned him 3 separate times during the golden years.

Why would Ichiro be a good pick now that he is not even hitting that well?

A ton of people rely on Ichiro on brand-name alone.

“I enjoy the game for what it is: a game of chance; nothing more except the $3MIL payout of course.”

Well, let’s try an example. I had a 9-game hit streak, then snapped it with Marco Scutaro, then went on another 9-game hit streak, then snapped it with Marlon Byrd, then went on another 2-game hit streak, which is where I stand currently.

Assume that that pattern continues for 6 cycles.

So there would be a 60-game period, with 6, 9-game hitting streaks and 6 0 for games.

So if I had gotten lucky and converted those 6 opportunities, I would win.

If we apply your heads/tails model, I would have a 1 / (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2) = 1 / 64 chance of getting that lucky.

Obviously you have to apply that 1 / 64 variable to the mix of skill/luck it took me to get those other 54 victories.

It is pure folly to assume the contest is pure skill or pure luck.

It is clearly a mix of the two, but the exact ratio is where the facts become cloudy.

Saying the game is pure “luck” is an excuse for not doing well. Sure there is a measure of luck involved no doubt but I would give the example of the stock market. Yes you can throw a dart and probably pick a winner but through research and the laws of probability you can reduce the luck involved in the game. I am currently on a 16 game streak my highest ever. Have I been “lucky” of course I have. But I have also looked at the numbers, researched the history of the hitters and put a heavy weight on 7 day stats. You are seriously mistaken if you think this game is pure luck. Someone will win the jackpot one year. We just don’t know what year that will be.

Rios was as a good a pick as it ever gets in BTS. Check his daytime #s. He just can’t hit at night.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?playerID=425567&statType=1&splitSet=1&c_id=cws&sitSplit1=d

Picking those gold medal #s against a lefty with problems against everyone recently is NOT a luck. The odds winning that one was pretty high. I would thinkg 95%. Five percent loss would be if Lannan throws a 1 or 2 hitter. If it was a 3 hitter, I would think Rios definitely got one of that hit.

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