Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, June 24

Ichiro_480.jpg

And Ichiro makes 40.

Beat the Streak elader Dick George upped his streak to an incredible 40
games after Ichiro Suzuki went 2-for-4 in the Mariners’ 9-1 win over
the Cubs and starter Randy Wells, who Ichiro had never faced before
heading into the night’s festivities.

I e-mailed George hoping to get the inside scoop on why he selected Ichiro.

Maybe George knew something that we all didn’t; like that Ichiro
has never gone hitless in eight career games vs. the Cubs (this is not
true), or that he’s hit safely in every game he’s ever played on June
23 (also not true; 0-for-4 vs. OAK on 6/23/05), or that George just had
a sneaking suspicion that Ichiro ate an Arby’s Melt before Wednesday’s
game and that in the history of Major League Baseball, anytime anyone
ever eats an Arby’s Melt before gametime, that player always gets at
least one hit in that night’s game (this is entirely possible).

But, alas, here was George’s response when prompted about his
selection: “Ichiro seemed like the best choice because it was a righty
vs. lefty matchup for him against a mediocre pitcher at home.”

That’s it. That’s the huge in-depth analysis. That’s the whole unsolvable, head-spinning Good Will Hunting chalkboard solution.

It was a righty vs. lefty matchup and he was facing a mediocre pitcher at home.

Who said this game was hard, again?

Time for Thursday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Ryan Braun: .600 AVG (6-for-10) lifetime vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

? David Ortiz: .625 AVG (5-for-8) lifetime vs. Rockies starter Jason Hammel

? Carlos Lee: .455 AVG (5-for-11) lifetime vs. Giants starter Matt Cain

? Miguel Tejada: .421 AVG (8-for-19) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Nate Robertson

? Freddy Sanchez: .435 AVG (10-for-23) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Johnny Peralta:
.391 AVG (9-for-23) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Joe Blanton. Peralta
is two for his last 12, is batting .258 for the year and you’d almost
never want to select him. Except when he is facing Joe Blanton, who has
yielded 71 hits over 53 innings and sports a 10.20 June ERA.



You’ll thank me later ...

? Manny Ramirez: .159 AVG (7-for-44) lifetime vs. Angels starter Scott Kazmir

? Alex Rios: .000 AVG (0-for-10) lifetime vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe

? Nick Markakis: .176 AVG (3-for-17) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Nate Robertson

? Prince Fielder: .100 AVG (1-for-10) lifetime vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

Leaderboard time!

Walking kitty corner from Dick George is “kbarr9″, who also rode Ichiro last night en route to a 37-game streak.

With George at 40 and “kbarr9″ at 37, let’s just say we have a lot of
sleepless nights ahead of us here at MLB.com headquarters.

Top MLB streakers

? Jose Guillen: 18 games

? Josh Hamilton: 17 games

? Adrian Gonzalez: 11 games

? Miguel Montero: 9 games

? Corey Hart: 8 games 

69 Comments

I chose Gaby Sanchez as Marlins are facing Millwood and he seems like the logical pick as he is hitting .414 over the last 7 days and bats second and Marlins are on the road. Had Ichiro but didn’t like the numbers against Lilly. Leader picked Braun and second place picked Mauer. Play each other at 2 PM. We will find out before tonight if they will be knocked out. Good luck to all today and I have Ortiz in HR BTS and Giants in Survivor.

Let me see if I have this straight: Btsplayer went with Chris Coghlan, but doesn’t feel that confident about it.

Here’s hoping Ryan Braun hits for Dick George. We in the North Little Rock, Arkansas, neighborhood of Levy hope Dick makes it at least to 56. We can’t imagine how exciting watching Game 57 on mlb.tv would be in that circumstance (all of us have accepted we have no chance for the $3 million).

?Professor Pete

I went with Chris Coghlan. Don’t feel that confident about it but didn’t find ones that I feel that much better about.

We gonna need a miracle for Braun to not come through. Just hoping Blackburn is back to mediocre and not that batting pratice pitcher he was this month. Hope the curse of playing home for Bruan shines through tonight.

I went with Chris Coghlan. Don’t feel that confident about it but didn’t find ones that I feel that much better about.

We gonna need a miracle for Braun to not come through. Just hoping Blackburn is back to mediocre and not that batting pratice pitcher he was this month. Hope the curse of playing home for Bruan shines through tonight.

@vinny, i’m right with you with ortiz and giants but i went with jose reyes in BTS….

braun has let me down twice this year….one time snapped a 9 game streak going 0-6 and another time snapped a 4 or 5 streak going 0-5, nothing as dramatic as 30s and 40s but i just hate how iffy the brauny man can be……lets hope today, the statue crumbles!

wow, I have never seen the top 2 pick such poor selections as they have today.

Braun is a .229 hitter at home this season and only .252 during the day.

Mauer is a catcher playing in a day game. Against Gallardo. When he is not hitting well?

Have no clue why those two were chosen.

Of course, now that I have pointed out how bad those two selections are, they will go 6 for 8.

by the way, if Braun and Mauer both get through today, we are screwed, because these are TERRIBLE picks, so if they can get by on terrible picks, who knows how far they can go.

“by the way, if Braun and Mauer both get through today, we are screwed, because these are TERRIBLE picks, so if they can get by on terrible picks, who knows how far they can go.”

The thing is Braun is going against pretty awful pitcher. My fear is home game “prowess” will be overcome.

Gallardo can be hit by lefties.

I think there is a very good chance both will advance. Darn. I was hoping the leader went with Ortiz.

Some interesting comparisons to the all-time BTS:
Dick George, 24 June 10, streak of 40, ended ???
Tanner Nielsen, 22 June 09, streak of 45, ended next day
Bob Paradise, 3 July 08, streak of 48, ended next day
Reid Choroszy, 23 June 07, streak of 40, ended next day
No other BTS players had a streak greater than 39 before the All Star break.

Today’s Top Picks of the Top2500. All games included, 125 different batters selected overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
David Ortiz, 270, 10.8
Josh Hamilton, 254, 10.16
Miguel Tejada, 188, 7.52
Ryan Braun, 160, 6.4 (Leader #1)
Martin Prado, 132, 5.28
Freddy Sanchez, 126, 5.04
Justin Morneau, 82, 3.28
Chone Figgins, 82, 3.28
Albert Pujols, 81, 3.24
Vladimir Guerrero, 69, 2.76
Ichiro Suzuki, 67, 2.68
Michael Young, 56, 2.24
Aubrey Huff, 55, 2.2
…No Selection, 47, 1.88
Joe Mauer, 27, 1.08 (Leader #2)
Highest “No Selection”: Page #4 with a streak of 17 now back to zero.
27% Top2500 streaks ended yesterday
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page #, Pick
blanco21, 16, pg7, Ryan Braun
cojobs, 11, pg41, Matt Holliday

How did you pull that data during the day this time?

and YES! Mauer NOT in the starting lineup!

@champ88: Off work today & tomorrow ;)
Mauer – Pinch hitting possibility @ NL park? Interesting.

This is the problem with picking Mauer on Thursdays and Sundays. He is usually not in the starting lineup and will pinch hit in the late innings. You have to be lucky during that at-bat believe me I learned this lesson last year and got lucky when he homered to keep my modest streak alive.

I thought about this yesterday but I didn’t care because I wasn’t gonna pick m&m boys. I couldn’t differentiate between the 2 and I didn’t think both of them would get a hit.

Night -> day game + NL = Butera. Unless the game is a blowout in either direction, Mauer is definitely coming in.

Make sure to watch out for Freddy Sanchez…..if he flunks out today, BTS will lose a 33 and a 30 streak….

he’s on my fantasy team but today…..i want Freddy to get the golden sombrero!

Everything’s goin’ Houston’s way. Beatin’ up Cain & Wandy is lookin’ good so far. Has me a little worried about Sanchez.

Nick Blackburn should give it up. Send him back to minors. 1-2 and he can’t finish off a hitter. Why would he keep pounding the strike zone?

well chalk up another hit for the leader

Yep, 41 and climbing. Will he stall? I’ve predicted his last 2 picks and here’s his pick for tomorrow: Cano or Ichiro.

Seriously, why he would he keep throwing strikes when Braun fouled off everyone of them. This guy should think about career. Possilby selling peanuts or wearing a clown custom.

What goes into the head of a pitcher like Blackburn. You simply suck and give up a double to a pitcher. You let Weeks Homer off you. Braun owns you as a personal spit basket and you keep challenging him with your crappy fastball?

ROTFL. btsPlayer, you are taking this way to seriously. No one wants someone else to win. Leader is picking logical picks based off of stats or commonsense (his of course). Another 16 times lucky, $3mil richer, else back to zero. Take off that sandwich board that says: “the end is near, we are all doomed” and try to enjoy the race. I don’t know where your streak stands, but I’m so far behind all I can do is wait and see. I think if I was in the Top 10, I’d be more inclined to be emotionally involved.

Watchin’ on GameDay & seein’ it say “in play, no out” then it popping up saying he reached b/c of an error = thee worst.

lol no the worst is one time, years ago, my guy got a hit and I was happy and all, but when I went to put my pick in the next day, I noticed my streak was back to zero.

the official scorer had changed the hit to an error and my streak was actually snapped.

@champ88: Did the scoring change happen during the game or after? I was wondering if anyone got skunked by such a change after the game was over?

See, that’s the stuff I wish BTS had a separate page for: streaks ended due to unusual reasons. I’m sure the list would be finite, but as people have said time and time again: In baseball, every year, you can see something you’ve never seen before.

@lavolpe: He is also very lucky. I mean the chance of surviving that Prado-Cano-Cano picks in that fashion is almost nil. Everything that could go his way goes his way. Including the crappy relief pitchers they bring in.

Blackburn must have an iq of 50. Why would would keep throwing strikes when you’re ahead? Especially since it hasn’t worked and Braun fouled off every one of them. This guy should seriously consider a job making tacos.

Oh, I do agree he was/is lucky. I’ve stressed from the beginning this game is pure luck no skill needed. Too many variables. Baseball isn’t scripted things can change from pitch to pitch, batter to batter. I personally was hoping he’d come up to bat with a runner on 2nd or 3rd, hoping for sac fly or force out. Disappointed he got a hit, sure.
Regarding the pitch selection. 4 runs already scored, bases empty, pitch to contact, not a strike-out pitcher. Though with only 1 ball, I was surprised he didn’t try to waste a pitch.

Man, I would be so upset if this Braun’s only hit. And it looks that way for now. I am still not sure why they would continue to start Blackburn when its obvious he simply stinks. He not only stink but he singlehandedly puts your team at a loss for the day. He has been doing this for a whole month already.

You know you can’t pitch when a pitcher rips a line drive double off you and Weeks slams one over. Send him packing to a conession stand. Let him work out his issues there.

^^ maybe that’s the difference between Butera & Mauer. Mauer may have called the pitch selection differently since he caught the game before & Braun went 0-fer.

YEAH BABY!!!!!!!! BRAUN MY MAN!!! UP TO 17!!!!! LOL!!!!!!
Man I got lucky today. My heart stopped when I saw I had the same pick with leader. You know he is going to break within the next couple of days………

Congrats blanco. Nice to see another Blogger with a good streak going since JagX lost his a short time back.

Martin Prado: 0 for 3
Freddy Sanchez: 0 for 3, out of the game
Justin Morneau: 0 for 2
Aubrey Huff: 0 for 1

Sanchez, Kinsler, Sanchez, Kinsler..went with Sanchez..now hoping Kinsler doesn’t get a hit just to feel better haha

Whatever happened to deb?? who went 20 about a month ago? We haven’t heard anything from him/her in awhile. How about hanman (?) from last year. He went to high 30s. He seemed very eager to be back this year.

I have to agree with you lavolpe its all luck this game. 3 times my player came thru with last at bat during my streak. AT 5 AND 8 Cabrera and 9 Hamilton. Man my last 6 picks its smooth sailing lol. 4 times 1st at bat 2 times 2nd.
Man its getting harder to pick a player everyday. I spend 3 hours now analyzing everyday. I cant imagine what the leader is going thru………

“See, that’s the stuff I wish BTS had a separate page for: streaks ended due to unusual reasons. I’m sure the list would be finite, but as people have said time and time again: In baseball, every year, you can see something you’ve never seen before.”

I don’t think the streak was all that long, maybe 8-11 games, so I am unsure if that would make the list.

You know you’re doing well when your player gets a hit off the starter. It’s when they get hits off the pen that you have to admit you were lucky that day. Now if someone gets a 30+ streak going with 90% hits off starters, I’d say there is very little luck involved. P.S. Depending on resets, you may find yourself on page 4 or 5 tomorrow!

“How about hanman (?) from last year. He went to high 30s. He seemed very eager to be back this year.”

He got to 43.

@rip2thecompetition: You should stayed away from high batting avg. off pitcher. That always turn out to be a bust. I don’t know why. Its at best 50/50. I got burned so many times on that. This year, I completely stay away. I think pitchers clearly know who burned you.

“I think pitchers clearly know who burned you.”

I take that back. NICK BLACKBURN does not does know who his daddy is. He still treats Braun with such pleasure.

@btsplayer: “Whatever happened to deb” deb23 appears to still be playing (small streak in the Bloggers Group).
Anyone know whether previous winners are prevented from playing again? You don’t see the $10K winners again, curious. Maybe it’s in the rules somewhere and I just skipped over it.

“I think pitchers clearly know who burned you.”

I take that back. NICK BLACKBURN does not does know who his daddy is. He still treats Braun with such pleasure.

“Anyone know whether previous winners are prevented from playing again? You don’t see the $10K winners again, curious. Maybe it’s in the rules somewhere and I just skipped over it.”

It does not say that in the rule book. That tells you a lot about this game. Skills alone won’t get you there.

Yup. Ryan Braun. One hit day. I hate you. Nick Blackburn. I hate you for being a stupid pitcher. I hope you get sent back down to minors and never come back up. I hope to see at Taco Bell one day!

Unless MIN ties/takes lead or MIL bats around, Braun is done for the day. But will MIN get a couple on and bring Mauer in to pinch hit?

my vote is that the leader won’t make it all the way to the $3 mil…..eventually he will fold, it seems all he does is pick big name players, which isnt a terrible strategy (obviously), but eventually there are ones out there that are too good to be true and he’ll get caught up in it….i give him 3 more days

Nope, I think Leader #2 is safe. Unless MIN gets to Butera’s spot (7 spots away) in the 9th with a chance to tie or take the lead, Mauer will remain on the bench.

As a Cub fan, I saw the comment by the leader, Dick George, about taking Ichirio on Wed because the Cubs had a medicore pitcher on the mound. Well———-just adding in that Cub starter Randy Wells last night is not a medicore pitcher — he has been a terrible pitcher the last 6 weeks. This was a great pick.
Professor Pete, I knew when I coined you “Professor Pete” it was the perfect blog name for you. Your comment about the negativity toward the leaders is right on target. You are the man—Well actually Stan “The Man” Musial is ‘The Man” but you know what I mean.
Come on Micheal Young v. pirates tonight.

“”Yup. Ryan Braun. One hit day. I hate you. Nick Blackburn. I hate you for being a stupid pitcher. I hope you get sent back down to minors and never come back up. I hope to see at Taco Bell one day!””

lol, why would you want that?

We want easy pitchers to pick off!

@bts I agree. It was more his .426 average vs lefties that swayed me. Oh well. Thinkin’ of Cano to get my streak goin’ again. Agree with lavolpe though, I could see the leader goin’ with him tomorrow too & I hate havin’ the same player as the leader.

Rays-Diamondbacks series may prove helpful to up one’s sreaks in all 3 BTS games. Careful, Crawford may have thrown his arm out today.

I’m curious; am I the only bts blogger who wants to see someone?anyone?win this game? I was pleased by Braun’s hit. Of course, part of what entertains me is reading comments questioning the intelligence and wisdom of a man with a 41-game hitting streak. I particularly enjoy those which dismiss skill in favor of luck; they are at best, I suspect, disingenous.

?Professor Pete

Yes Pete, you are in the minority. Who, playing this game, wants to see someone else win it? At least while on is mathematically in the race. I for one, am having a horrible year getting a serious streak going. But as long as I can reach 57 on paper, I want the chance. I think all of us do and if that’s true then we want the leader to fail. This game is a sprint, first one wins. However, I can find it in myself to pull for someone once I no longer am viable.

The winner should invite all bloggers to his/her home ballpark for a game. I would have all of you come to
Wrigley Field to sit in my favorite place to see a day game, the upper deck behind home plate and the Old Style’s would be on me. Of course you’d have to get to Chicago on your own($3 million isn’t what it used to be!) Remember Wrigley was built about 100 years ago so the seats in the upper deck are close to the field and are a great place to see the game. Professor Pete and Vinny – I want you guys to sit next to me. All the Levy Gehtto Cats are welcome to come.
I like Ichirio on Friday

Ah curses. I went with Avila and he’s not even playing. Not that it matters, seeing as I’m back down to 0. Perhaps a pinch hitting role is in his future… we’ll see! Good luck to all, especially dickgeorge. May Ryan Braun be on your side!

@Professor Pete: Regarding skill: I’ll address this one last time, as my position is well known. There is no skill involved, unless you count looking at a stat sheet & clicking a mouse as a skill. There is intelligence involved I strongly agree.
The game of baseball: ball hits bat – ball goes somewhere maybe in general direction intended; ball lands 20′ shorter or longer & difference is out or hit; batter is pitched to the current situation that can change pitch by pitch; your batter fails to hit off starter you picked against but gets hit off bullpen; swinging bunt hits, bloop singles, etc, etc, etc. What skill did you display, really? Ummm, good question. IMO anyone that says skill is involved is self-served. No skill – just going with the odds; might as well say placing a wager on a ballgame or horse race is skillful. Oooh, I know – that person in sports pools that picks teams/players because they like their jersey colors & then wins–that’s skillful too. So, in short, I agree to disagree. I’m stepping done from my soapbox & will refrain from addressing this again, I promise.

^^ In Summary: If picking an item from a list to correctly guess a result in a dynamic situation counts as skill; then so be it. As we have no interaction with the actual events, nor can alter the outcome, I cannot see how one can say skill is involved; rather is a good explanation of luck.

“Ah curses. I went with Avila and he’s not even playing. Not that it matters, seeing as I’m back down to 0. Perhaps a pinch hitting role is in his future… we’ll see! Good luck to all, especially dickgeorge. May Ryan Braun be on your side!”

lol, why has no one noticed the Brewers already played today?

“No skill – just going with the odds; might as well say placing a wager on a ballgame or horse race is skillful. Oooh, I know – that person in sports pools that picks teams/players because they like their jersey colors & then wins–that’s skillful too. So, in short, I agree to disagree.”

No, that person would not be skillful.

Basically, there are four categories: making intelligent picks and succeeding, making intelligent picks and getting unlucky, making random picks and getting lucky and succeeding or making random picks and failing.

Only when putting skill and luck together can one normally win, but you probably only need luck for 6 or 7 of your 57 wins.

Watch this game on Friday
Cubs at ChiSox
Day game
US Cellular Field is a HR Park
Zambrano and Peavy both can give up the long ball.
I’ve got Alfonso Soriano in HR BTS

Basically intelligence/experience is NOT equal to luck.

Luck definitely plays a big part. Dickie has gotten more than his share. Actually, more than many of the past high streakers. His made many mediocre picks that somehow made through. You can’t argue that he planned his choice for the day to get that hit in the last AB in the last inning against a relief pitcher.

But you have to do your homework. Anyone who blindly picks someone like Ortiz today can never win. Sure, you may pass today but I can’t even get past 10 doing that.

I think what champion_88 said about a combination of factors and certain amonut of days going your way is correct. That is probably the best way to describe how to put up a long streak.

I still don’t understand spectator mentalities in this though. I am here to win. I don’t want Dickie to win. Even more so given how extraordinarlily lucky he has been. It’s simple as that. At least when mkaratzia or snookie93 had high streaks, they actually made pretty good picks 95% of the time. I want Dickie going down tomorrow.

What is Josh Hamilton smoking lately? I am dead serious. This is humanely impossible for a power hitter to do batting 5th.

Whatever Hamilton is doing is working. I have Hamilton tomorrow as he is facing Moehler and Moehlesr sucks. I have Rangers in BTS and Dunn in HR BTS.

Dick’s got a 41 ******. That can’t all be luck. I’m not cheering for him to flame out but if he does I won’t be pissed either. If Cano would have O-ferd on Monday that would have shook this game up. I wonder how I will feel if I ever get a streak of 41? I will probably break my arm patting myself on the back and say that it is total skill.

So many high ERAs today. Holy crap!!!!!! There must be at least a dozen good picks!!!!! And I still cant find one!!! LOL!!!!!

I used to look at the ERA’s on the Survivor site. They are now misleading as they are “year to date”. I don’t care what a guy did in April – I want to see what he has done lately. So, I look at the pitching lines in the Chicago Sun Times and they give the pitchers performance over the past 3 games that include their 3 game ERA. As an example, NYY Burnett – Year to Date ERA is 4.83 but ERA in last 3 starts is 10.93. Current info is best for BTS purposes.
Saturday
Ichirio v. Wolf of MIL
HR – TX – Vlad G
Survivor: Dark Horse pick – late game A’s
Survivor Dark horse pick – Callaspo of KC – I hate that he bats 6th

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