Beat the Streak Report: Monday, July 19

LeeBTS480.jpg

Rough day in Streakland yesterday, as Miguel Cabrera (9.8 percent),
Ichiro Suzuki (6.4 percent) and Albert Pujols (2.1 percent) combined to
vaporize 18.3 percent of all streaks in the universe.

And now, a little public service announcement from yours truly.

Often times when one of you lovely streakers reach a 35-game streak, I
will e-mail you with a little questionnaire filled with questions about
yourself, your streak, your hometown, etc. so that all of Streakland can
learn little chewy morsels about our leader.

Our leader entering Friday was “respy”, aka Ryan Espy, who had a 32-game
streak. Ryan took the initiative and decided to e-mail me and provide
some great details about his life as a grad student at Purdue and a nice
little tale about how his wife begrudgingly let him make his Beat the
Streak picks while on their honeymoon.

It really was a heartfelt tearjerker, one that surely would have fogged
the screens of many Streakers nationwide — except for the part that
Espy only had a 32-game streak and e-mailed me instead of vice versa.

With Espy’s count-my-eggs-before-they-hatch fate now squarely in the
hands of the BTS magical forces, his questionable pick for the day was
Ryan Theriot, who is hitting .246 for July. Furthermore, Espy basically
conceded that his pick was less-than-stellar on the Beat the Streak blog
on Friday, stating that he picked Theriot because he was “anxious at
work and I want[ed] to watch my player get a hit.”

Do you see where this thing is going? Do I need to even say that Theriot
proceeded to go 0-for-4 vs. the Phillies, eliminating Espy and likely
his chances at $3,000,000.

Now, I know with “Inception” dominating the box office this weekend that
we currently live in a society that touts things that sound cool but
really don’t make sense. But I’m afraid Espy might have taken this a
little too far.

Also, did I mention that you all should check out my (and Ian Kay’s) new blog, “The Fantasy Goodness“? It’s really good. Ya know, if you like baseball. 

Time for Monday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Derrek Lee
: .438 AVG (14-for-32) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy
Rodriguez

? Ryan Braun:
.462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Jeff Karstens

? Denard
Span
: .462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Indians starter Aaron
Laffey

? Joe Mauer:
.471 AVG (8-for-17) lifetime vs. Indians starter Aaron Laffey

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Travis
Hafner
: .382 AVG (13-for-34) lifetime vs. Twins starter Scott
Baker

You’ll thank me later ...

? Corey Hart:
.125 AVG (2-for-16) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Jeff Karstens

? Alfonso
Soriano
: .050 AVG (1-for-20) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy
Rodriguez

? Vladimir
Guerrero
: .208 AVG (5-for-24) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Jeremy
Bonderman

Leaderboard time!

“ftwaynealbert” is the current BTS King of the Castle, rocking a stellar
34-game streak. Should “ftwaynealbert” select a player who gets a hit
tonight, he’ll receive an email from me tomorrow. And that’s how it
works.

Top MLB streakers

? Buster
Posey
: 12 games

? Ian
Kinsler
: 11 games

? Adam Lind:
11 games

? Placido
Polanco
: 10 games

? Johnny
Damon
: 9 games

? Corey Hart:
9 games 

94 Comments

Mi.Cabrera slumping/tired? .346 before All-Star break, .143 after. Good numbers otherwise, but worth the risk? Hmmmm.

@nardberg Hard to tell. He made the jump from Low-A to the Majors last season. Pitched in 6 games, 4 out of relief & started 2, was 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

Does anyone know anything about the starting pitcher today for CWS? dragbunt??? Looks like a rookie – could be a good day to pick Ichie……

cabrera was my choice till i saw the first post on here.
needless to say i did change it

Thanks guys – am very undecided. Hate Mondays but at least we have til 7. Which can be good or drive us all nuts lol. Good luck everyone! Am def avoiding Cabrera.

3 days in a row I’ve had a bad pick. Awesome.

BTS: Mauer
HR: Vernon Wells
Surv: Rockies

@nardberg: “…could be a good day to pick Ichie…”
Lately, wonder if any day is a good day. Yesterday, he had great numbers vs Santana, including .833 in 2 earlier games this season, but goes 0-3 & 1 BB against him. I think I’ll wait til he puts a streak together that includes at least 1 multi-hit game before I risk a BTS streak on him. My opinion of course.

I’m going out on a limb and picking Pujols to ride my streak to 2.

I’m pissed about Chipper Jones not playing when he is 6 for 7 off of Parra. When I have pauses in my streak a reset seems to be right around the corner. My 10, 12 and 17 game hit streaks were all pause free. I hope I can break the hex however I’m only at 1 in BTS and in survivor. Don’t even mention home run, I tried that game and have 10 straight zeros.

@yanksgiantsdevils33. Suggestion: Do some research before picking. RotoWorld is a good site. On there it was mentioned Chipper is having injury problems and not in the line up for that game.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/injuries.aspx?sport=MLB

Lav and everybody I haven’t picked once during my current streak. I have to feel really good about him in order for me to pick him. I know Hanley came through to keep me going but I had a second pick that also got a hit and that was Pennington. Today is a risky pick u can say but u never know. I’m picking Wright tonight. Something is amiss with Kennedy of Arizona. He has a high ERA but BAA is low. Something doesn’t make sense. Anyway sticking it out with Wright. Rockies in Survivorr and Jimenez, ortiz in HR BTS. Wright has 24 hits in Arizona in his career and is hitting .333 in Arizona. This year he is hitting .319 at night and .303 I believe on the road.

I looked into Miggy as well. I have to say he is not my choice though. I know he’s a beast & could easily come up with a easy single with just the flick of the bat against Feldman but a guy 1 for his last 11 is not the type of player I feel confident with.

@Vinny: Be forewarned. Wright is playing with an injury: bruised/swollen knee.

I think im on the other side of thinkin then vinny…i see where u stand but i think miguel is 1-11 since break but hes too good to stay in a slump for too long..he will be back tonight and who better against then scott feldman the guy whose gave up 140 hits in 108 innings..i believe the first mistake he throws cabrera hes goin yard tonight!! just a prediction..IM ON 11 GOIN TO 12

Hello everyone!!! I hope a lot of people aren’t struggling to much on making a pick today. Although reading some of the earlier posts would lead to me believe otherwise. I think there are some favorable match-ups tonight like the Rays vs. the orioles. I think most Rays batters would be a good pick against Tillman, I am going with Crawford. Also, D. Lee and M. Byrd would be good picks against Rodriguez of the Astros. Rangers hitters would be good picks as well, Hamilton, Andrus, Young. I know Andrus is 0-3 against Bonderman but batting lead-off on the road is a good set-up for any lead-off batter, and Young is hitting .400 against B-Man. GL to everyone tonight and hopefully we’ll all make good picks!!!

@jew@earthlink.net- I like your thinking, and Miguel is probably a good pick for tonight, but he is at home against a team that is playing well and any of the Ranger pitchers could throw a gem on any given day/night. That being said, I’m not sure going with him tonight would be best, but good luck to you and hopefully he will come through for you.

yah ima stay strong..my boy miguels got my back!! so good luck to ur guys picks too!!

Streak reset to 0 after Cabrera?s 0 for night?Dang it! One of the rare times I trust a big bat to carry my streak and he craps on me. Tonight I?m going with Cuddyer.
Survivor: Jays, HR: Overbay.

Beat the Streak: Carl Crawford
Survivor: Reds
Home Run: Help Me!!!!!!!!!!

Well with Miggy going 0-fer yesterday I don’t feel as bad about Craw killing me on sat. Was going to go with Miggy regardless Sunday. (lesson learned, don’t go against pitcher throwing first career major league game. )
congrats to the Bloggers who made it
through weekend.

GL to all tonight.

Bring on Baltimore home games. My next 7 picks, well 3 for sure. We’ll see about Minny series.

Going with Felix Pie tonight @ the moment. It can change but I have a back up blame plan if he doesn’t come through. I will unleash my wrath @ her and find an apprioriate job for her at the concession stand:

Michelle Obama to attend Orioles game

Some under the radar guys who have been smokin’ this month. to consider: BP, AR, GB, AH, LO, &JP

hey if it aint respy…the man of the page!! sry bout the whole theriot thing man…i was pulling for ya

I had Albert Pujols for Home run and switched to Ryan Howard because he has 5 Homers in his last 7 games.

Im going Ryan Braun and miggy. I think the Rangers have a big day so pretty much any of their players would be a good pick especially the Ham, Young, Vlad.

I like Mr. Mauer for tonight. Laffey’s pitch away away strategy has never worked against Joe. Mauer has also been hitting well recently against the up-the-middle shifts teams have been employing.

Miggy with a hit and an rbi in his first at bat….u can not expect the guy to 0-fer 2 days in a row. To all the miggy disbelievers…..tsk tsk!

Prior to Crawford’s at-bat I saw he was 0-for-9 with runners on 2nd & 3rd. Zobrist’s hit put him in that exact situation, now 0-for-10…

Today’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 133 batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Miguel Cabrera, 583, 23.32%
Carl Crawford, 307, 12.28
Joe Mauer, 273, 10.92
Ichiro Suzuki, 204, 8.16
Ryan Braun, 145, 5.8 (Leader)
Josh Hamilton, 124, 4.96
Albert Pujols, 42, 1.68
Evan Longoria, 41, 1.64
Joey Votto, 35, 1.4
Derrek Lee, 35, 1.4
Chris Coghlan, 35, 1.4
Andrew McCutchen, 35, 1.4
No Selection, 35, 1.4
Highest “No Selection”: Pg#13 with streak of 15 back to zero.
Sunday was a day of unrest for many: 37% reset
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
LaVolpe, 20, pg3, R.Braun
RIP2TheCompetition, 15, pg11, C.Crawford
baseballgirlie13, 13, pg30, C.Crawford
http://www.jew, 11, pg52, Mi.Cabrera
_Em_, 11, pg55, P.Polanco
vinny1979, 11, pg65, D.Wright
champion_88 @ 12 reset by Mi.Cabrera
dragbunt104 @ 12 reset by I.Suzuki
goober85 @ 12 reset by I.Suzuki
darwri @ 10 reset by I.Suzuki

@NJredlegs8/NJreds23. You do realize playing 2 accounts is automatic disqualification should you win anything. You should email MLB and get some guidance on what to do since you have a 13 game streak under 1 of the accounts. I didn’t include you in the Top2500 listing above ’cause of that.

If I go down today, I take 1st & 2nd place with me!

Hurray Pujols brings me to 2

het lavolope for the multiple accounts thing i have a question…umm i have 5 accounts on my computer for streak but only 1 is mine..cuz i have multiple family members that play beat the streak on my computer like my 3 roommates me and my brother…i wouldnt get ripped there would i? its only computer we got right now so we have no choice rly

Any questions regarding multiple accounts needs to be addressed to MLB not the blog. If you win anything, like Ricky Ricardo would say, “you got some ‘splaining to do Lucy”

narberg – Hudson of ChiSox is a brand new rookie and I like Ichiro getting a hit or 2. Just had time to sign on now– after the game closed for the day — sorry!
ChiSox are White Hot beware picking against their usual starting pitchers for the rest of the series.

My picks:
BTS – Hot Cub Starlin Castro (Wow, I actually used the words hot and Cub in the same sentence.)
HR – Derrek Lee
Survivor: Reds and Cueto over Nats

@ lavolpe damn I didn’t know that ok. thanks for letting me know. where can I find the email for bts

nevermind i found it

After all our analyzing, MCab comes through. The problem with this game is it’s not as predictable as it seems. Only thing we can do is make careful picks which does increase the odds ever slightly and wish for tons of luck.

One thing that just hit me is for guys like MCab, getting only one hit would considered a bad day unless it was a HR. That kind puts into perspective what MCab is trying to do and what he is good for BTS purposes.

Oh yah miguel my boy gets an RBI single in the 1st…streaks now 12!! i knew hed come thru today

Jew, as long as you only have one account that you use with one email your fine. Everybody that is playing two games better stop right now because if you happen to win you won’t get a dime as it is illegal to have two accounts to play the game with. Believe me I know. As long as you use one account from here on out you will be good.

Is it just me or does the leader’s Ryan Braun pick seem somewhat iffY?

Crawford tripled so I’m safe in BTS. Reds game is delayed. HOWEVER PUJOLS HAS HOMERED and HOWARD HAS NOT! Unbelivable

I’m trying to decide which game to watch. I think I’ll watch the Tampa game to see how Crawford does.

@btsPlayer: Can’t speak for Leader, but my logic was: 300+ vs righty/night/away & nearly 300 after ASG break. 3-5 vs pitcher last time faced. Good ‘nuf for me, win or lose.

Ok. It will be Yankees V. Rangers in the American league playoff for sure now. I am not sure if Yankees pitching or any pitching can stop Texas bat. Hitters 2 to 6 are killing everything. And hitters 1 and 9 are pretty good hitters who will get on base. Maybe only CC can manage that line-up. Definitely not AJ.

@lavolpe: I saw that too but I was just mainly concerned with Karstens. He can pull a magic out of nowhere @ times. But I think he will get 5 ABs so he will probably manage a hit somewhere.

Cabrera is a beast. He just hit a HR that he didn’t even hit that hard.

njredlegs, as long as you don’t log in under the other email you are fine.

“Cabrera is a beast.” Yup. A-Roid should put up a pin-up poster of MCab in his bedroom. He has something to inspire to while he plays with the hormones.

“Jew, as long as you only have one account that you use with one email your fine. Everybody that is playing two games better stop right now because if you happen to win you won’t get a dime as it is illegal to have two accounts to play the game with. Believe me I know. As long as you use one account from here on out you will be good.”

lol, did the MLB security force show up at your house and threaten you with your life?

but multiple people can play on one computer though.

remember the guy that won last year had 2 brothers who also played.

Wow, everyone is getting a hit except my pick. Haha. Typical. As soon as my streak gets more than a week, poop.

so I will be fine if I stop using my other accounts? or do I have to cancel them.

“Spliting Hairs 101″
How valid is the day – night stat now that “night” games start in daylight and most hitters get 2 at bats before it is dark/night time? Champion_88 = this is a rhetorical question :)
Mark you calendar for Saturday July 24 when Cubs starter Carlos Silva starts again. Once again he was a airplane crash on Monday “evening.” He gave up 5 runs and 7 hits in the first inning and did not come out to pitch the 2nd inning. Silva has got to have one of the biggest waist lines in MLB. They may have sewed two belts together to get around his massive waist.
Astros 5 Cubs 0 in the bottom of the 2nd.

Did anyone except Mrs. Obama show up to Baltimore game? They gonna lose 100 games easily this year. Maybe set a record and lose 120. Down 8 runs by third inning. I guess Tillman got really lucky on the last start and caught TX on a off day.

Sooner or later I think Cabrera will be pitched to very, very carefully & that could hurt his BTS value.

Anyone else notice that HR BTS now has its 3rd member of the 8 game streak courtesy of Miggy going yard?
Congrats to Abby4.

“Sooner or later I think Cabrera will be pitched to very, very carefully & that could hurt his BTS value.” It won’t be easy though because they have BB and Guillen batting behind him. Its the same with JHamil and Cano. They’re enveloped quite nicely.

Good news: Crawford has tripled for my BTS pick.
Medium news: Reds game is delayed for survivor
Bad news: My old home run pick (Pujols) has homered and Howard hasn’t.

@bts True…but in both situations today I don’t know how he’s not pitched around. Both HRs came with no one on.

Cross that out about survivor the Reds now lead the Nats 4-2 in the bottom of the 4th. I was looking at the espn scores then I changed to the mlb.com scoreboard. Go Reds!

@rip2: Probably because they thought they can challenge him with the most damage being a solo shot. Feldman probably thought that was a long shot except he was wrong.

I guess with man on bases, BB and Guillen would benefit more if the pitcher doesn’t have the stomach to throw strikes to MCab. I don’t think BB would be nowhere near where he now if not for 2 big bats ahead of him. Pitchters probably let it go a bit when they get to him or maybe little tired too.

What is up with Weeks and Hart this year? They’re just showing so much power. Maybe its the cheese.

“Its the same with JHamil and Cano. They’re enveloped quite nicely.”

Who hits behind Cano?

“Who hits behind Cano?” Posada

JHamil & MCab are just playing batting pratice. You throw a strike or anything near the plate, its a hit.

Well 1 more AB for the Leader, 2nd Place & me barring x-tras or a bat-around. Fingers crossed & wondering if hit comes on last AB 2-days in a row; not a good feeling. Worse case scenario: I know what it feels like to get to 20 games; best case scenario: I may find out what it’s like to get to 30 ;)

CONGRATS LAVOLPE!!! VERY NICE RUN….

Well for the sake of my streak I hope Cabrera continues to hit. He’s apart of my BTS squad & who I look at before anyone else.

Yup. We need MCab, JHamil & Cano to continue to hit. I am hoping Mauer & Ichiro to join them for the 2nd half. That would make this much easier.

Felix Pie came through for me. That was a close one.

good run LAV, pending extras RyBro mighta just killed you.

Shucks, back to zero but time to see if I can beat my 20-gamer by end of season. At least on Thursday, I can start using my system again cause I’ll have 7 consecutive days of hitter data. Took down 1st & 2nd place leaders with me; that’s a positive!

The First Lady, Michelle Obama at the Orioles game?
You know how the Secret Service is always concerned about crowds. Since the O’s are so bad and attendance is low it was a no brainer for the first lady to attend the O’s game as it posed as much a security risk as if she was watching the game in the White House on TV.
The, The, The Thhhaaattt’sss all folks! :)

Guys, Gals been fun. Will finish this season without the effort applied to the 1st half — promise to my wife and couldn’t get an extension. So I don’t expect to go far in next 70+ days, but hope to refine a system or two for next year. Left the Bloggers Group and will no longer blog this year.
So, until next year…. GL to all except the daily Leaders ;)

Damn Lav. It’s going to not be the same without you but you should always listen to your wife. It was fun and I would love to see the data for most popular picked every day if you can at least post that. I’m going on to tomorrow since Wright did get his hit.

Lavolpe: That was a good run. The thing with RB was it was just too easy of a pick. I am almost certain most of the the high avg. v. pitcher turns out to be 50/50. I think pitchers do there homework before the game or they remember clearly who burned them in the past.

I really don’t think there is A system. The best one thus far is weak pitching-strong hitting. But either something goes wrong where the weak pitcher turns in a dandy or the streaker self-destructs under the pressure of high streaks and pick the lemming pick.

In the end, you definintely need lots luck to win this.

How is this for a change? I wrote down 4 odd picks that I was certain will hit. They all came through. Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Lyle Overbay & John Jay. Did I have guts to pick any of them? No. I went with Pie. Those are the picks that just tug at my gut but no balls to pull the trigger. C. Lee & Aramis had bad # against the pitcther too.

Sorry Vinny, won’t happen. Too many things were put on hold while I gave this thing my best shot for the past few months. Like Champ88, I put too much time into it. Family-time for the rest of the year.
However, if someone wants to take over the Top2500, email me & I’ll tweak the program I wrote to download the pages & one of you can take it over. But won’t get that to you til the weekend at earliest — gotta do without for rest of week. Just let each other know who’ll be doing it.
LaVolpeVB@gmail.com — will check email in a couple days. Ciao

Lav, I understand that and I will email you so that we can at least see what the top 2500 pick but would have to be told how to use it. Expect my email tonight.

@btsPlayer. My system pretty much excludes the high avg hitters because it isn’t based on average nor pitcher-batter average. Mi.Cabrerra came into the system only 2 days during my streak, Cano, Ichiro never did. Post-ASG was just winging it til I could get 7 days of data; but didn’t make it that far. Without the system, I maxed out at 8 games all year; but with it, got to 16 before the break. Good luck ppl.

@lavolpe: Yeah. This is just a game. I don’t think you’re going to miss much. I am 99.9% certain nobody will take it this year so all of us will be back next year. When my current streak breaks, I think I am done too. With time running out and I don’t care for the consolation prize so this will be it for me too soon. Hopefully not soon.

@Vinny. Do you have Microsoft Excel? If so, let me know in the email. I used it to sort & filter the file(s) the program produces. If you do have it, I’ll include the routine I used day to day to kick out the Top2500.

@btsPlayer. You know I’ll be checking the leader board on a daily basis. If someone wins it, I’ll know. But odds are not likely.

Well, maybe not a daily basis, but a weekly one for sure.

It was cool having you Lav and I do have Excel so that would be helpful and I will tell you something else in the email. Only certain people know this.

Update on tomorrow’s Yankee game. Kazmir is on the DL as he got placed on it today so Teixeira wouldn’t be a good pick tomorrow as he is one of the Picks Of The Day. Angels haven’t listed a starter yet.

Doubt he’ll be back on to see this but great job, Lavo. I swear I felt extra pressure just trying to keep up with u myself. Now that I’m alone at the top though hopefully I can keep this going.

“Guys, Gals been fun. Will finish this season without the effort applied to the 1st half — promise to my wife and couldn’t get an extension. So I don’t expect to go far in next 70+ days, but hope to refine a system or two for next year. Left the Bloggers Group and will no longer blog this year. ”

You still have enough time to win the grand prize.

Why would you quit now, while you are still relatively hot?

I expect to be sad for the next 2-3 days like I am, but no reason to quit the year!

Why did you leave the bloggers group?

We need to see who the best streaks were all year and we cannot do that without you in the group!

Rejoin!

“Post-ASG was just winging it til I could get 7 days of data; but didn’t make it that far. Without the system, I maxed out at 8 games all year; but with it, got to 16 before the break. Good luck ppl.”

You should have just used the data pre-ASG until you got 7 days out after the break.

I am sure it is still valid.

Or picked Manny, since he is expected to be out until mid week.

“It was cool having you Lav and I do have Excel so that would be helpful and I will tell you something else in the email. Only certain people know this.”

thanks for not sharing.

not.

@Champ88. I’m not quitting exactly — just not spending hours each day researching, watching, learning. Probably be spending less than 10 mins a day on this game & checking my results next day; something like that. Wife agreed to 1/2 the season without major complaints and extended it past ASG since I was on an active streak. I agreed I’d back off when that streak ended & it did last night. This is only my 2nd year playing & still learning. Well off to work. Good day to all.
Regarding the Top2500 & Bloggers Group Top2500. Both Vinny & 00Liber offered to take it over & I’ll pass it on to them.

@Vinny, emailed.

i told u my boy miguel was goin deep off feldman yday..he never lets me down when i pick him!!

Hey OOLI please email me today before I leave for work. Vinny1979@msn.com. Thanks.

“Wife agreed to 1/2 the season without major complaints and extended it past ASG since I was on an active streak.”

This is asinine. She agreed to over half the season, since the ASG is about 90 games in and now we are about 95 games in.

You need 43 games to catch the leader, so we are essentially 138 games in.

She was OK with it for 12 weeks, but could not stand it for another 4 weeks?

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