Beat the Streak Report: Monday, July 26

ARod480BTS.jpg

Sorry if all your keyboards got a little messy, but it was Gravy Train Sunday all across Streakland!

The day’s six most popular kids in class each got hits, as Robinson Cano
{7.9 percent), Josh Hamilton (7.4), Miguel Cabrera (6.5), Jayson Werth
(5.1), Mark Teixeira (4.4) and Joey Votto (4.0) combined to extend the
streaks of 38.4 percent of the galaxy.

But the lesson of the day is that BTS-ers really, really love Miguel Cabrera.

Or they just:

? Didn’t realize the Tigers were scheduled for a double-header

or

? Knew about the twinbill but were too lazy to go to their iPhone/computer and make the change (guilty!)

Alas, this is reason No. 4,421 that Miggy is my Jumpstart Pick.

Time for Monday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Alex Rodriguez: .375 AVG (9-for-24) lifetime vs. Indians starter Jake Westbrook

? Asdrubal Cabrera: .467 AVG (7-for-15) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Javier Vazquez

? Vernon Wells: .455 AVG (5-for-11) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Brad Bergesen

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Mark Kotsay: .368 AVG (7-for-19) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Felix Hernandez

You’ll thank me later …

? Hanley Ramirez: .077 AVG (1-for-13) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito

? Johnny Damon: .125 AVG (2-for-16) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza

? Kevin Youkilis: .200 AVG (3-for-15) lifetime vs. Angels starter Joel Pineiro

Leaderboard time!

A new leader of Streakland emerged over the weekend, as
“richard.jucksch” is now king of the castle with a 35-gamer after Joey
Votto’s bountiful day at the plate.

One interesting tidbit is that MLB.com’s own Ian Kay — co-creator of the highly informative and super-daffy “Fantasy Goodness” blog — is now sixth on the leaderboard with a 28-game streak, the longest in company history.

Let’s all hope whoever Kay’s selection is tonight goes hitless — the
disparity between his highest streak and mine (11) is slowly killing me,
plus I’d rather not lose my job to some 22-year-old punk.

Top MLB streakers

? Buster Posey: 18 games

? Nelson Cruz: 14 games

? Aubrey Huff: 12 games

? Scott Podsednik: 12 games

? Justin Upton: 12 games 

61 Comments

Dave, yesterday was all gravy but if the Yankee game doesnt get restarted, cano and swisher would’ve both gone o-fer. And you make no mention of the masacre that occured on Sat with Cano and Pujols both going 0-fer.
Anyways GL to all today, Im goin with Polanco.
Top2500 will be up by about 2est.
M

Frosty
what’s even more amazing ( lots of ppl don’t realize) after Joe’s 56 ended he went right back at it the very next day with another 20+ hit streak.

Hello guys and girls. I have picked Cano as he hits way better at night than day. He hits Westbrook at a .500 clip and Westbrook sucks against the Yanks.

The other funny thing was at 1 PM when it locked Dave didn’t have a selection but like an hour later it had him choosing Miggy. It must of been the jump start pick.

Locked in Vernon Wells. Don’t feel super confidant but I thought other picks were just as iffy. He only played the first game and PH in the second so I don’t think he will be tired out.

Hey bloggers………I’m riding high on my highest streak of the contest…a ******** 13-gamer. It’s made me realize just how incredibly difficult it is to attempt a 57-gamer…not just in this contest…but more importantly how our boy Joe went day in and day out…getting hits in 56 consecutive games….astounding. Anyone with streaks over 20 has my respect……

Anyway, best of luck to the crew……I’ve placing hope on Cano to get me to #14 today……his batting average and his 4-for-8 against Westbrook is all I’m going on at this point.

Frosty

In beat the streak, it’s awesome when your pick gets a hit on a day with a lot of resets. On the other hand it’s embarrassing when your pick results in a reset on a day that few were reset.
Initially I had Johnny Damon for yesterday picked but then switched when I found out bout the double header. My streak would have reset anyway because Damon PINCH HIT (0 for 1) in the 1st game. But if you were to pick a player in a double header and they skip one game completely and get 1+ hits in the other game would your streak extend or stay where it is?
As for yesterday’s reset, the only Reds player that is reliable is Joey Votto who got 2 hits while the rest of that team got 1 hit. Meanwhile the Twins got 19 hits without either of the M&M boys.

Back at 0 in BTS, my picks;
Beat the Streak: A-Rod
Survivor: Blue Jays
Home run: Ryan Howard
Highest no selections that are getting reset:
Beat the streak: “blaineevans29″ (page 4) with a streak of 20
Survivor: “baseballboy52″ (page 1) with a streak of 12
Home run: “jronning” (page 1) with a streak of 3

I am right behind mr juksch on the leaderboard. man, this gets on the nerves a bit as you go. Today, my pick was Placido Polanco, who just singled to lead off the 5th, another day, another hit. My streak now stands at 34

LaV’s List
Monday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 118 batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Robinson Cano 637 25.48(4th)
Alex Rodriguez 183 7.32
Joey Votto 170 6.8
Vernon Wells 162 6.48
Derek Jeter 86 3.44
Buster Posey 82 3.28
Carlos Gonzalez 77 3.08(3rd)(GOOD)
Orlando Hudson 59 2.36
Adrian Beltre 58 2.32(5th)
David Ortiz 50 2
Placido Polanco 49 1.96(2nd)(GOOD)(MY PICK)
No Selection 44 1.76
Ichiro Suzuki 42 1.68
Magglio Ordonez 42 1.68(DL)
Brandon Philips 39 1.56
Miguel Cabrera 38 1.52
Joe Mauer 36 1.44(1rst)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was back down to a nice low 16.8%

Highest “No Selection”:Pg#4 with a streak of 20 back to zero.

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
_Em_, 18, pg 6, R. Cano
bmoccabee, 14, pg 20, J. Votto
forcook, 13, pg 28, R. Cano
ChiSox07, 8, pg 90, J Keppinger(only pick in top2500)
http://www.jew, 16, Reset by E. Longoria
Yanksgiantsdevils33, 7, Reset by J. Gomes

GL to all
M

Dang, Cano could be quite the upset tonight. I wanted to pick him, but I was worried that A-Rod could get a day off to rest his wrist after getting pluncked on it yesterday. Therefore by over thinking, I was fearful that Cano would be pitched around a little more. I just hate those popular picks when all seems well.

Cano could be a suspect pick but everyone one of the picks are today. Just imagine everyone bombs out except Ichiro. I don’t think its a remote possibility. At least, Ichiro has one thing going for him. He got a hit of Danks last week after being owned and he is 0-fer for 2 days in a row. I cannot recall him going hitless 3 days in a row but he is @ the lowest point for him in a long time.

If I surived today I thought tomorrow looks lot easier but I just realized a lot of the weak pitchers are going against weak hitting too. Millwood against Toronto.

The Angels made a desperate fool move that will just cost them lots of money for the next 2years. I am beginning to think Haren is no longer the pitcher he once was. He has been getting hit hard in National League. I don’t see this guy suddenly boucing back and pitching like the way he used to. American League bats will hit him hard. If depleted Red Sox hammers him tonight, the Angels’ GM will throw up his Taco Bell Gorditas he had for lunch.

The AL/NL debate is a very childish way to view pitchers. The difference is that he’s going from a non-contendor back to being in the race and having a chance to win. Haren wasn’t going to get that in Arizona and if he’s going to be an ace, he has to step it up now that the adrenaline rush should be back. Besides, assuming he pitches against mostly division rivals in the next ten weeks, he really doesn’t have all that much to fear. The way I see it, if he pitches well like he should, then that’s petty cash when aces go for $20+ million these days.

” The difference is that he’s going from a non-contendor back to being in the race and having a chance to win.”

When was this guy ever in a race? Its well known Amerian league is much tougher to pitch in. Show me one team in National League with line-ups like TX, DET & BOS (before the injury meltdown) & NYY. If you look at the innings he threw over the years and how he has thrown this year, I wouldn’t touch this with a 10 foot pole. Its way too late into the season to think this is a mere slump. He has been consistently mediocre this year. And the velocity is down on his fastball. I think Arizona just got a huge save in a bad investment. They got a great use out of him and maybe dumping him at just the right moment. I think Saunders actually has better chance of pitching rest of the year and next year.

feeling nervous as my streak of 14 is the highest my streak has ever gone but I have only been doing this since June. My previous highest streak was at 13 and I thought I was going to stop at 13 again as Swisher was due up 5th in the final inning and sneaked a hit over the 2bman.

Going with Votto as Cano hasn’t been hitting like he has but I knew he would get about 20% of the vote so I went against the field and Votto has been hot as of late with a hitting streak of 6 or 7 and all but 2 have been multi hit games. Went with my heart on this pick as a Reds fan was close to picking Phillips as he has been struggling and I feel like he is due to at least get 1 hit in this game (3 for 30) in his last 7 games.

O yea GL to all except Cano lol. cuz I was close to picking him

@btsplayer. what is yur nickname in the BTS?

Blog master: “…MLB.com’s own Ian Kay…”
Here’s hoping IanK goes 57! That’s really mean of me ’cause he would be automatically disqualified as a employee of MLBAM, MLB, et all, correct?
However, if he does make it to 43 or better, what then? Would kinda mess up anyone thinking his streak was the one to beat for the 10k consolation prize. If he does make it that far, hopefully MLB will pull his entry so it does not cause any confusion.

“Knew about the twinbill but were too lazy to go to their iPhone/computer and make the change (guilty!) ”

Wow, if that is true, that is freaking pathetic.

You forgot about Reason # 3.

That people thought Cabrera would get a hit in both games.

When Chipper Jones had his .400 1st half, a majority of the board still went with Chipper.

I am not completely sure what happened, but I think he actually delivered both times.

Man. The leader is just chugging along. He sure loves the “soft” hits though. I hope one day soon that sole “soft” line drive is caught by some crazy diving outfielder.

I thought I picked well but VW but he has only one hit. Everyone else in TOR is having a batting practice session. I guess I am slightly lucky too.

Man. The leader is just chugging along. He sure loves the “soft” hits though. I hope one day soon that sole “soft” line drive is caught by some crazy diving outfielder.

I thought I picked well but VW but he has only one hit. Everyone else in TOR is having a batting practice session. I guess I am slightly lucky too.

Man. The leader is just chugging along. He sure loves the “soft” hits though. I hope one day soon that sole “soft” line drive is caught by some crazy diving outfielder.

I thought I picked well but VW but he has only one hit. Everyone else in TOR is having a batting practice session. I guess I am slightly lucky too.

Cano pickers may have one more AB. I had uneasy feeling about going against Westbrook. Not only because Cano is either slumping still or about to come out of it (not sure which one) but Westbrook is very hard to figure. He will give up hits to least expected hitters from what I recall. He is almost back to his old diminant self. What a comeback for this guy.

“Would the inclusion of his entry affect your picking at all?” It does but I guess MLB will say it shouldn’t affect you.

I think they will let him play but he reaches any imporatant milestoes, I think they will just ignore. Lets say if gets to 57, they will just announce to us that play along and ignore his streak.

I’m actually a bit surprised MLB knowingly allows members to play and have their streaks public. A creative lawyer of a disgruntled player could try for a lawsuit settlement.
Playing devil’s advocate & me being the disgruntled player, let’s say I made a point that I adjusted my strategy so I (being 2nd place) wouldn’t pick the same as the “leader” (later found out to be an MLB employee). My argument: I analyzed his picks so I wouldn’t pick same as him should he fall and I then I wouldn’t by not having the same pick. Ok? Well, if the leader/employee didn’t play I would have picked more conservatively ’cause I’d be in 1st place vs 2nd, correct? Weak? Plausible? That’s for the lawyers.
A workaround? I would think BTS could allow their folks to play in a private group where a flag in the database only allows the picks/streaks to be viewed when in that group only.
Anyway, just bored waiting for the night games & thinking out loud.

“When was this guy ever in a race?” How about 2006, 2008, 2009 for starters? The guy is durable, pitches over 200 innings, leads in strikeouts. Not batting will help him stay rested in between innings, Pitching all of his innings will keep the bullpen fresher, and strikeouts keep defense out of the equation to help them stay fresher, off the DL, and allows LAA to not need to play their best defensive players day in, day out.

“Its well known American league is much tougher to pitch in.” That’s such an empty statement because fans see what they want to see. Did you watch interleague this year? The AL won by the mere margin of 134-118. That’s a matter of only eight games won that could have been lost if it weren’t for plain bad teams in the NL like Houston and Pittsburgh that combined for 5 wins in 30 chances. I really dislike the ‘AL is harder to hit in than the NL’ argument because the only reason that AL teams seemed jacked is because they can afford to DH heavyset players who have below average defense and eliminate the automatic out that is the pitcher slot. It’s therefore pointless for me to relate an NL team to the NYY who have near unlimited finds to buy championships or BOS for that matter. The best matches are PHI and STL, but that’s thanks to Howard and Pujols who can actually field their positions.

“How about 2006, 2008, 2009 for starters?”

Arizona finished dead last last year. Only time I recall him in the hunt mode was when he was in OAK one year. He pitched well since then without being in a winning team.

Have you watched him pitch this year. He is not even close to what he used to be. This year he is way off. And its not just a patch of bad starts. Its the whole year. My guess is him pitching crazy amounts of innings all those years took his toll. I was glad to see that he didn’t go to Yankees. He would have been another money down the darin like AJ.

“I really dislike the ‘AL is harder to hit in than the NL’ argument because the only reason that AL teams seemed jacked is because they can afford to DH”

But isn’t that the point. Having DHs do make it harder to pitch in AL. What is the purpose of having pithcers hit? They don’t train to hit anyway.

“It’s therefore pointless for me to relate an NL team to the NYY who have near unlimited finds to buy championships or BOS for that matter.’

But aren’t those teams the reason everyone is shopping for the big pitcher? Beating up on Baltimore or Seattle is not the objective. The reason LAA got Haren is to not only win enough games to get the wild card spot but to beat TX, NYY or BOS in the playoff games.

Maybe LAA being a big market team, they have money to flush down the drain like the NYY but they don’t have a chance in hell this year even if they had the old Haren. So IMO, they’re just wasting money down the drain. Any slight hope they had this year went down with Kendry.

Everyone here should have stocked up on Orlando Hudson picks for the next 10 days.

There could not have been more warning that he was about to go on the disabled list soon.

I might not use them yet, but at least now, I have the option to not pick through August 3rd, except July 29th when the Twins are off.

So again I change my pick last minute and I’m about to reset again. I had Spillborghs and changed to Tex. Grrr, what was I thinking?! Well I did watch Zimmerman get a hit in his last at bat (bottom of the 9th, 2 out, 1-2 count) a few nights ago and so my streak continued. Hopefully Westbrook will come out and Tex will get a hit against the bullpen.

“The difference is that he’s going from a non-contendor back to being in the race and having a chance to win. Haren wasn’t going to get that in Arizona and if he’s going to be an ace,”

If he cannot pitch well unless he is in contention, then he is not an ace.

“However, if he does make it to 43 or better, what then? Would kinda mess up anyone thinking his streak was the one to beat for the 10k consolation prize. If he does make it that far, hopefully MLB will pull his entry so it does not cause any confusion. ”

Would the inclusion of his entry affect your picking at all?

Another 1st AB hit for the leader. Taking all the excitement out of this game, isn’t he?

@champion_88 “Would the inclusion of his entry affect your picking at all?”
Could, depending on how high he gets. Let’s use your logic of picking DL players as buffers. Ok? So here’s the theoretical scenario (assume no rainouts, DNP, etc)
1) 10K leader (mlb employee) has 48 & next in line is 44
2) 9 gamedays left and I have 40-gamer
3) I need 9 to beat 48 but only 5 to beat 44
4) If aiming at 49 I need to pick every day
5) But to beat 44, could use 4 DL picks & wait for 5 favorable matchups
So yes, it can matter in this scenario. And theoretically, a potential lawsuit?

This is one BTS week I can’t forget soon enough. Past 8 days hit totals: 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0. ‘Nuf already, Polanco tomorrow to start me out fresh?

TB and Garza finally on the winning side of a no-no or perfect game. The year of the pitcher reared it’s head today. 9 total hits in NYY v. Tribe game. Twins would be the exception today. Should call the slaughter rule in KC.
How could you figure Grienke to get rocked like that. The road to 57 is a mine field to say the least.
Time to look under the radar – Took Cano but Colvin and Castro of Cubs both got hits.

@btsplayer, My bad. I meant 2007 and said 2009. Too many years to keep track of.
@champion_88 When you’re not in contention, you don’t wake up each day feeling the motivation to win nearly as much as when you see the post-season on the horizon. You want to win, but where is that spark? I do admit, that I haven’t had the chance to watch Haren pitch personally this year, but when you pitch for a bad team that is stocking up for the future, chances are that the defense behind you is not going to be stellar. Perhaps Arizona does have good defense, and if they do please let me know because like I have mentioned, I haven’t had the chance to watch them in person and numbers will only tell you so much. But if my hunch is correct and it’s less than stellar, then balls land fair that shouldn’t and give teams extra outs to score. The best thing that happened for the White Sox was for Mark Teahen to go on the DL and for Omar Vizquel to start in his place at third base because once that happened, outs were made the the rotation suddenly turned it around. I like to think this can happen for Haren. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. Baseball is unpredictable, no? :) That’s why I love it.

@chisox07: Good luck with your Sox. I like your team and Ozzie. He is a character but a very good manager. Him and Francona I think are the best managers out there. Both of them gets lot more out of the team as a whole than parts put together.

Garza has a no-hitter through 8 IP!

Cano: 0 for 3, 1 intentional walk

Man. If the current group of leaders go, the only race left will for the consolation prize. A-Roid and Cano will decimate the board. Both of them really didn’t hit me a grand pick. A-Roid was plunked pretty hard yesterday & the pitchers will be conscious of not being a footnote to his 600. Cano is just not just that hot this month.

I learned my lesson from picking name-brand players (Ichie & Mauer). Don’t pick them because of who they’re. Pick them because what they’re doing with bat right NOW.

My earlier joking prediction is about to come to fruition. Ichiro manages a hit but the top picks are about to croak. This is why this game is impossible to win. Going 57 games w/ avoiding a day like today is so hard.

I picked VW today but I don’t know if I could have picked him if my streak was lot higher. Its lot harder when you’re up in 20s to make rational picks. I probably caved picked one of the dead picks.

NO-HITTER FOR MATT GARZA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just went 0 fer for the 2nd straight day (had A-Rod today) which seems to happen once a month. To reach 57 it would take NO 0 fers in almost 2 months! That is a HUGE mountain to climb!

Not at home but just looked at boxscores on the iPhone. Holy f’n 0-fers batman. Year of the pitcher wreaks havoc once again.

OK, I’m taking a totally different approach. Let’s see how this one plays out. Should be interesting. At least let’s get a streak going and then I’ll see if I wanna change it up.

Ironically, no top streakers on the first page picked a Tiger. You’d just think one person. Hah. Either way, no Cano, A-Rod, Jeter, Miggy…. Barring extra innings for Cincinnati (Tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th) this’ll also include Votto and Phillips and make this a VERY brutal day.

Whoops, didn’t check the Reds game boxscore quick enough to see that Milwaukee just scored to lead the Reds 3-2. Doesn’t look any better for them now….. On a good note, Jeff Keppinger delivered a hit for me just a moment ago and my streak is up to 9. I’ll laugh if Jeff’s streak of one hit in the first game, one hit in the second game, and two hits in the third game continues this series as the past three against the Cubs. That’s quite a pattern.

At least kudos to the leader for picking Mauer. Did he not only survive but did it gangbuster style. Treat yourself to some M&Ms.

****** shiiiiiiit. Why can’t the Reds hit any pitching it’s like they forgot they have a bat instead of a toothpick. My streak back to 0 as Votto goes 0fer. Congrats to all Mauer pickers 5-5 with a HR.

I wonder if his reason for picking Mauer was beause of the rest. I’ve noticed there is a pattern of Mauer coming back strong after a day of rest.

“****** shiiiiiiit. Why can’t the Reds hit any pitching it’s like they forgot they have a bat instead of a toothpick. My streak back to 0 as Votto goes 0fer.”

Votto is not hitting lefties at all this month. Plus, never bet against Wolf. He looks tempting because he blows game here & there but he is like Garza, then they also throw jems.

@champion_88. My reply to your question shows how a strategy can be affected if a player doesn’t know the “leader” is a mlb employee. Here’s the link to that reply above:
http://beatthestreak.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/07/beat_the_streak_report_monday_49.html#comment-5677871

@chisox: mlb.com under indiv. players. splits & pull down menu for splits.

@btsplayer Where do you go to find your splits during specific months?

@chisox
if it helps I use yahoo.http://www.sports.yahoo.com/mlb
lots of good splits & stats and also situational splits. Doesn’t have the double splits like MLB.com though.

@00liber Much appreciated. I just think that finding a split like hitting righties and lefties over the last few weeks is a pretty cool tool if you can find it without having to look very hard. I don’t want to obsess over this game, but it could help narrow down tight choices. Or it can do the opposite and make me over think every time I pick. Hah. Can you tell we only have two weeks to pick?

Josh Tomlin:
Through 20 appearances (17 starts) with Triple-A Columbus this season, Tomlin is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA, 80 strikeouts and 33 walks in 107 1/3 innings.

Good but may not be enough to stop Yankee bats? Its a gamble.

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