Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, August 5

Hanley_480.jpg

It was an absolute, certifiable, kid-tested, mother-approved, all-you-can-eat Gravy Train Wednesday in Streakland.

A festively plump 14 of the day’s 15 most popular selections each got
hits, flash forwarding the streaks of 58 percent of the BTS galaxy.

Rickie Weeks was the day’s Mr. Freeze, as his 0-for-5 performance ice blasted 1.7 percent of the field, Mortal Kombat-style.

You know what — I’ll take the blame for that. I had no business putting
a lifetime .252 hitter up on the Picks of the Day page, even if his
numbers vs. the opposing pitcher were certifiably stellar. Whoopshies!

Time for Thursday’s Picks:

Oh, hello there …

? Hanley Ramirez: .455 AVG (10-for-22) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Oswalt

? Andre Ethier: .533 AVG (8-for-15) lifetime vs. Padres starter Kevin Correia

? Brian McCann: .421 AVG (8-for-19) lifetime vs. Giants starter Tim Lincecum

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Wilson Valdez: .500 AVG (5-for-10) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad

You’ll thank me later …

? Josh Hamilton: .179 AVG (5-for-28) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Felix Hernandez

? Jayson Werth: .071 AVG (1-for-14) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad

? Nick Markakis: .182 AVG (2-for-11) Angels starter Dan Haren

Leaderboard time!

“gfc2112″ and “randy.zimmer” foxtrotted their way to 29-game streaks,
after Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer each collected hits, respectively.

These two leaders are each one hit away from getting a free month’s worth of MLB.tv.

That’s a pretty cool prize.

Except when compared to $3,000,000.

Top MLB streakers

? David Ortiz: 13 games

? Raul Ibanez: 12 games

? Stephen Drew: 11 games

? Hunter Pence: 11 games

? Juan Pierre: 11 games 

31 Comments

BTS: Troy Tulowitzki
Survivor: Rockies

what happened here nobody comments anymore
poll closes in in 15 min
GL all

bmoc, I think it’s because it’s almost over for this year so people won’t even bother but I will still post every day til the end of the year no matter what. As for my picks for today.

BTS- Carlos Gonzalez, he is red smoking hot right now and he hit 2 homers last night and he’s facing the Pirates so yeah he will keep it going.

HR BTS- Miguel Cabrera-Just about giving up on this game for this year. Way too hard.

Survivor-Rangers-Had Red Sox but Tomlin is pitching and he pitched great his first two starts.

Good luck to all today.

I read the blog everyday but I don’t always post, though I did also notice a lot of people are not posting anymore. Like Vinny said though, the game is almost over in terms of being able to make it to 57 so I think a lot of people gave up. I already gave up on survivor and home run bts but I will continue playing BTS until I can’t win the $10,000 prize. I went with Mauer today and he already got a hit, gotta love the first inning hits. GL to everyone else today.

LaV’s List
Thursday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 131 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Carlos Gonzalez, 495 19.8(5th)
Ichiro Suzuki, 258 10.32
Miguel Cabrera, 221 8.84(4th)
Joe Mauer, 153 6.12(1rst & 3rd)(GOOD)
Troy Tulowitzki, 102 4.08
Andre Ethier, 95 3.8(1rst)
Carl Crawford, 87 3.48
Hanley Ramirez, 84 3.36
Josh Hamilton, 78 3.12
No Selection, 77 3.08
Adrian Beltre, 63 2.52
Evan Longoria, 53 2.12
Brad Eldred, 40 1.6
Delmon Young, 24 0.96(5th)(GOOD)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was down to 10.4% with “NO SELECTION” reseting the most. And 9.3% paused.
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 3 with a streak of 15 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

bmoccabee, 8 , pg 42, 871, T. Tulowitzki
leeungaretta , 8 , pg 47, 871, E. Longoria
_EM_, 6, pg 94, 2324, T. Tulowitzki

GL to all
M

I went with Joe Mauer. I thought about Carlos Gonzalez but he is only hot when he is playing @ home. He is right along the line with Helton and Matt Holliday when playing in Coors stadium. His #s are even more extreme though. I wonder what he #s would be like if he is on another team. But I think most likely he will come through based on lefty/right match-up.

I had the good fortune of having the Rickie Weeks yesterday so back to zero again.

Wow. This game is impossible to figure out. Given how well Wade Davis pitched recently, I thought he was going to be very tough today. He is getting hammered.

Is Ichiro heating up again or is this a bluff? It would be so cool if can go on a huge end of the year streak in excess of 25 games. That would make this last attempt @ 3 mil. so much easier.

He got 3 hits last night. Second hit being a line drive. First hit a typical Ichiro infield “hit”. Disappointingly, third hit was a bunt hit.

Despite his good #s against Hunter of TX, I think he went 0-fer against him in last 2 games.

My game plan for rest of the season is go with the gut instinct. After a quick run through the match-ups, I will just go with whatever grabs me right away. I employed all different strategies but all turned out to be complete FAILs. Let’s see if this works for the last run.

I like to comment, but until my streak gets higher, I just pick out of gut and the mindset that I don’t need to over-research stats yet. But once my streak gets higher and I have more input as to picks, I post because I actually have research to back up claims and what not. Plus, I’ve just been busy all week. Hah.

Went with Mauer, streak to 7!

just seems like no one posts until the lock period. I like talkin bout picks before the lock. Carlos Gonzo and Ethier were the other players I considered. Gonzo just had too much of a gap between home and away BA and only has 1 AB against this pitcher where as Tulowitzki has 5 ABs. Ethier has a 5 game hit streak and had 3 hits yesterday so I have a feeling he has a 0fer today. Tulowitzki was my first pick and he bats .300+ against righties. He might be the only batter that I pick that will be a righty-righty matchup right now.

Yesterday I went 2 for 3 Rays lost, McCann went 3 for 5 and Pujols homered.
Today’s picks
Survivor: Giants
Beat the Streak: Joe Mauer (Good)
Home run: Miguel Cabrera (Is the 10th time a charm)

Highest no selections;
Survivor:”thedoctor2″ on page 4 with a win streak of 11.
Beat the Streak:”mmobraten” on page 3 with a hit streak of 15.
Home run:”albertcard” on page 1 with a HR streak of 4.
Back to 0 for these users.

Posting is down – encouraging those who read blog but who don’t post to do so. Always good to look at the previous day blog early in the morning as some post for today are made early am or late pm previous day as Dave gets the new day info up late am central time.
Watching Cubs and Sox and picking accordingly now – gut reactions to guy as other “strategies” based on stats etc. got me only to 12 twice this year. It is almost the “spring training” time for us as the run to 57 will be impossible soon. Tiem to try something new.
Hot hitters – Carlos Gonzalez and Starlin Castro
Reminder to all in the Bloggers Group (not to late to join)
I will be mailing a modest trophy to the #1 streak Holder at end of season. This will be a trophy to be passed on year to year from the top streak holder to the new top streak holder at the end of each season.

Survivor Page Problem?
I an unable to go back beyond the 1st page to see Survivor streaks.
Are you haveing same problem? I go to bottom of page and hit NEXT then I get a blak survivor page instead of see who is ranked 19, 20, 21 etc. Page one contains the streaks of top 18 players. This has been going on for a week now. Help? I emailed Dave on this for the tech crew to check out.
Is it my computers or is it doing same to you.
Please post on this for me. Thanks……………

Drag, I have the same problem but with all 3. I can’t go beyond the first page for current streaks and it’s crazy. I thought it was my comp.

Man. How will Bobby Jenks face Freddy Garcia when he returns to the dugout. I think he blew another of Garcia’s win this year. Almost the same way. How does him, K-Poop and Aaadsma call themselves a closer. Everytime they come out, there is no easy save. Baserunners always get on.

You can forget about MCab for BTS against the Sox. I think they’re not gonna give him anything to hit. I don’t blame Ozzie.

BTSplayer, Cabrera already got his hit so whoever picked him is good for today.

@vinny1979. They walked in 3 times though. I rather not take that chance. His last AB was almost the same but he got his bat on the ball and made an out. He could probably put his bat down and they will still walk him.

Crawford reset me to zero. August 8 is d-day so if I can hit tomorrow and Saturday I will have a two game cushion in case of DNPs.

I went with Mauer today and so I am up to 2!! Kind of sad to get excited about that huh, haha. I don’t think there really is a strategy that will work in this game. I mean you can never tell for certain that someone will get a hit. If they are hot they are due for an 0-fer and if they are in a funk they will break out with 3 or 4 hits. It really is just luck I feel. Since Aug 8 is the last day to start it would be good to have a streak going before then like Vegasjs said. That way a couple DNP’s won’t hurt you. I am going to look at games with teams that are in a tight race from here on out though because they will most likely play all their starters since they need to win. We’ll see how it goes. GL to everyone tonight!!

I know a smaller streak is needed to win survivor, but I can’t seem to get past 9. I pick a team that is hot and they lose, then I pick a team that has lost four games in a row and they lose again, I just can’t figure it out, haha. My longest streak in BTS is only 12 though so I can’t be too excited about that either. I like and enjoy BTS more though because if your guy gets a hit it doesn’t matter if his team wins or not. I can also then root for a yankee hitter to get a hit but still root for the yankees to lose, haha. Sorry to all yankee fans out there.

Regarding 2nd half season strategies, I think this one is fairly obvious. Avoid picking best players in inter-division rivalries between 1st, 2nd, 3rd place teams. The closer the teams in the standings, the more risk involved. However, these divisional rivalies also tend to bring out the best in a hitter.
Most managers play the 1st half of season as a “getting one’s feet wet” period and play the 2nd half to win every possible game. The 1st half, almost everyone is pitched to and not true in the 2nd half. The 1st half, intentional walks & pitch-arounds are down, not true in 2nd half. The 1st half, players are more energetic & can leg out infield singles, not so true the 2nd half. The 2nd half is also prone to hidden-injuries.
Anyway, still got up til and including Saturday to live with a reset. At a streak of one today, I’m still in the hunt but after Sunday then 10k prize is the goal once reset.
@goober85: given up on Survivor? Takes smaller streak to win that than a prize in BTS. Regarding HR BTS? MLB could probably make that prize $100K and feel really good about no one winning it.

Two wild finishes to the day games today with ChiSox and Twins both coming out on top as they battle for division lead.
As I’m now making my picks by game observation, here goes:
1. Alexi Ramirez has had o-fers two days in a row. He is off my “hot hitters” list. Ozzie Guillen keeps moving him around the batting order – WHY?
2. “El Sol Gatto” aka “The Sun Cat” Alex Rios was 0 – 5 today and had a o-fer Sunday in a day game too. Did I miss a 4 hour eclipse of the sun today in Detroit? Strike one was the Sunday 0-fer, strike two was the o-fer on Thursday, if he goes o-fer in his next day game he can no longer be called “El Sol Gatto.” – Ring him up, Steee-rike – three – grab some bench or sunglasses…………..:) lol

Go Carlos Gonzalez!
FYI – I got an immediate email back from Dave and he said he too could not get past page one on Survivor to check standings. He forwarded this to MLB tech crew. Refreshing to have Dave making things happen for us.

HR-BTS – The theory of picking a hitters park and taking the same slugger for all games in that series is pretty solid. You then adjust your picks after your guy gets a HR. This theory was posted about a week ago. The $10,000 prize is very low.
SURVIVOR – Amazing things can happen if you get on a hot streak. I had 5 losing days in a row just before I went on a run of picking 22 winners in a row. Hot teams, watching team/pitching matchups and a dose of good luck did it for me. Current active leader is at 23 games with Red Sox tonight – which is a bold move considering the Red Sox injury list. I took the Rockies and am trying to get to one again.

“Regarding HR BTS? MLB could probably make that prize $100K and feel really good about no one winning it.”

Not true, since I am sure at least 3, maybe more, people have already won it before.

“Not true, since I am sure at least 3, maybe more, people have already won it before.”
At a lower level, but at 11? Didn’t it just get to 11 this year or last year? Has anyone won it at 11? Don’t know, don’t think so. The MLB record is 8, the HR BTS is 11. Each time it gets topped, it becomes the new record. Same with the Survivor streak.

Giants lost this is now 2 straight days I’ve taken teams with their aces and lost (Rays with Price, Giants with Lincecum) and 3 straight survivor losses after 9 wins and a 15-1 run. I’m sick of teams losing games that should be easy wins with their ace.

damn I saw the Pirates score and was like oh s h i t. Then saw the box score and Tulo raped. And Gonzo 0fer. damn am i happy I stayed away from him I was really close to picking him. feel bad for people that picked but damn Im happy I stayed away from him. I dont normally research picks but its getting close to the cutoff day and it worked but this is all luck. A lot of things can affect them not getting a hit like dont sleep, injured in pregame or during the game and and get taken out early.

@bmoccabee: Tulo raked not raped. Raped is what Kobe did, allegedly :)

same sh it

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