Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, August 6-8

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Since I’m not eligible to win the $3 million Beat the Streak grand prize, I might as well try to help you out. Every weekday, make sure to check out the Beat the Streak Report to improve your odds with all the stats goodness you could ever dream of. You know, assuming you could use an extra three mill.
August 6-8
Dave finally pulled the trigger on that African safari he’s been dreaming about for years, so it’s Ian Kay here to take you through the weekend. 
Why should you listen to me? Well, I did put together a nice little 29-game streak from June 27-July 26. You listen to Dave every day and his career high is like 11 games — I expect 2.64 times the respect.
My philosophy on this here Beat the Streak game is pretty simple: it’s process of elimination. 
  • Never pick against a pitcher with good enough stuff to potentially throw a no-hitter — You could give me 1941 Ted Williams and I’d still pick someone else if Josh Johnson was on the mound.
  • Only use elite hitters — I lost my streak with Carlos Gonzalez. He was easily the worst overall hitter I picked in any of those 30 days. Oops.
  • Check the splits — Hey, did you know Josh Hamilton is hitting .260 against lefties this season? Or that Martin Prado bats .276 on the road?
  •  Maximize your at-bats — No platoon guys, nobody who walks a ton and no hitters without enough lineup protection to avoid being pitched around. It’s all fun and games until Matt Diaz gets lifted in the seventh inning because there’s a right-handed reliever on the mound.
None of those rules are exactly groundbreaking, but follow them and you’ll be left with three or four solid options per day.
Of course, it’s not foolproof. CarGo looked pretty good again yesterday before going 0-for-4 and burning 13.3 percent of all gamers in the process. I feel your pain, folks. Believe me, I do.
Sunday is the final day to start a streak with a chance to reach 57 games before the end of the season. With that in mind, let’s go Streaking…
Through the quad, to the gynmasium if you’d like.
Oh, hello there …
Friday
  • Matt Holliday: .636 AVG (7-for-11) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco
  • Michael Young: .417 AVG (7-for-17) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Dallas Braden
  • Corey Hart: .400 AVG (14-for-35) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez
Saturday
  • Paul Konerko: .417 AVG (10-for-24) lifetime vs. Braves starter Kevin Millwood
  • Rafael Furcal: .457 AVG (16-for-35) since ’05 vs. Nationals starter Livan Hernandez
  • Ichiro Suzuki: .474 AVG (9-for-19) lifetime vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen
Sunday
  • James Loney: .583 AVG (7-for-12) lifetime vs. Nationals starter Jason Marquis
  • Nick Markakis: .500 AVG (8-for-16) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle
  • Troy Tulowitzki: .500 AVG (7-for-14) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm
Feeling kinda spicy?

Friday
  • Bobby Crosby: .379 AVG (11-for-219) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland
Saturday
  • Aaron Rowand .444 AVG (8-for-18) lifetime vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson
Sunday
  • Clint Barmes: .579 AVG (11-for-19) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm
You’ll thank me later …
Friday
  • Victor Martinez: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Jaview Vazquez
  • Joey Votto: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Tom Gorzelanny
Saturday
  • Adrian Beltre: .053 AVG (1-for-19) lifetime vs. Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia
  • Alex Rodriguez: .091 AVG (3-for-31) since ’05 vs. Red Sox starter John Lackey
Sunday
  • Mark Teixeira: .143 AVG (4-for-28) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Josh Beckett
  • Nelson Cruz: .100 AVG (1-for-10) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Trevor Cahill

Leaderboard time!
Our co-leaders, “gfc2112″ and “randy.zimmer”, have each reached the 30-game plateau and earned a free month of MLB.tv for their trouble. They can thank Andre Ethier and Joe Mauer for that, respectively.
Just hang on for three more weeks plus six days and the big prize is yours, guys.
Top MLB streakers 

57 Comments

Hey Ian. Nice to see a fresh face and I was just able to see the blog just now but thanks for the words and the strategy. To all of my bloggers I chose Ichiro for the next 2 days. I’m hoping he goes on a roll as M’s are facing the Royals, A’s, Indians and O’s in their next 4 series so I’m hoping to jump on that bandwagon and get a nice streak going. Sunday I chose Young as he kills lefties and I’m hoping to see that continue.

BTS-Ichiro
HR BTS- JD Drew- Wind is blowing out towards the short porch in right at the Stadium and he has 4 homers in his career vs Vazquez so I took a shot.
Survivor-Padres-Garland is pitching and since they got Ludwick they should be scoring more runs.
Good luck to all today.

I think I know what’s better than the 3 mil. It’s having Dave & Ian’s job!!! Going with Beltre today. Am a casualty of Gonzalez’s 0-fer. Ian, thanks for the sound advice!!! :)

done for the day with Rolen hitting a single. I wanted to get an early hit on the day and had a feeling Rolen would get a hit plus didn’t have bad stats against him either. streak is now at 10 hopefully I keep luck on my side.

@liber: damn I enjoy seeing the lists and of course my name on top haha. see ya sunday.

GL all

Riding Pujols on my season-high 7 game streak.

I agree nardberg, I think they have pretty awesome jobs. I wouldn’t mind doing what they do, haha. I went with Longoria today as he hits Cecil pretty well. He is 5-9 against him and Longo hits well indoors on turf. Since the Rays play in a dome he is pretty used to it. I was going to go with Ichiro but I want to see if this is indeed the start of a streak for him, I’ve been killed by him too often this year. And, like Ian said, don’t pick against a pitcher with the potential to throw a no-hitter. I think Greinke can do that. Anyway, GL to all today.

Nobody on the front page of the current standings went with Ichiro either. I think a lot of people are skeptical about going with him, especially since we are getting down to the wire. If he is indeed starting a streak, then congrats to all who picked him.

Having a little fun with a strategy twist. I look at Survivor hard and try to pick a team I think will win & hopefully easily. This includes some research to get team averages against and other details. Once I pick a team, I then go to BTS and pick a player on that team I think has a good chance to go 2 for 4. This strategy is new to me but seems interesting. It does narrow your focus.
Here’s the two catches: 1) if your team gets skunked your BTS streak disappears too so pick well, and 2) need to avoid the urge to pick a team around a player who you think is a gimme for the day. Will play this strategy for a couple weeks to get a feel for it’s validity.
Anyway, only used strategy 4 of 5 last days and the reset came on the day I picked a player outside of the Survivor pick. Another tidbit: just because the Survivor pick may lose, doesn’t mean the BTS streak loses too as was the case last night for me: BTS=2, Survivor=0.

Well ponyforkeana I was another example of winning on BTS and losing on survivor yesterday with Joe Mauer going 1 for 3 and the Giants losing with Lincecum.
My picks for today;
Beat the Streak: Albert Pujols
HR BTS: Matt Holliday
Survivor: White Sox

Highest no selections
Beat the Streak: 2, “toffeemike,kb04681253″ pages 5,8 with hit streaks of 13.
HR BTS: “stevemarshffl” page 1 with a HR streak of 5 – Ouch!
Survivor:”willie7777sammy” on page 4 with a win streak of 8.
All “No selections” Back to 0.

.. “I was another example of winning on BTS and losing on survivor yesterday with Joe Mauer going 1 for 3 and the Giants losing with Lincecum.”
Didn’t get my drift? The strategy I was trying to describe is picking a player from the same team as your Survivor pick always. No biggie.

LaV’s List
Firday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 175 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage

Albert Pujols 267 10.68
Matt Holliday 163 6.52
Ichiro Suzuki 126 5.04
Josh Hamilton 107 4.28(3RD & 4TH)
Billy Butler 103 4.12
Paul Konerko 94 3.76(1RST)
Joe Mauer 85 3.4(2ND & 5TH)
Adrian Beltre 80 3.2
Miguel Cabrera 76 3.04
Robinson Cano 71 2.84
Rafael Furcal 71 2.84
Angel Pagan 62 2.48
No Selection 54 2.16
Carlos Gonzalez 46 1.84
Corey Hart 43 1.72

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was up to 36.3% with C. Gonz reseting the most. And 9.32% paused.
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 5 with a streak of 13 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

bmoccabee, 9 , pg 26, 590, S. Rolen
_EM_, 7, pg 61, 1456, A. Pagan
im4o4, 6, pg 87, 2105, C. Hart
Dave55, 6, pg 91, 2105, A. Pagan

leeungaretta , 8 RESET BY E. Longoria

GL to all
M

Hey, Im not going to be able to post top2500 tom, as i will be out on the boat fishing. Talk to you all sunday. GL

I went with Ichiro also. With my streak of 1 and one more day before the close-off, I thought I give him one more try.

It seems like he is breaking out of his slump but its hard to tell. Last 2 ABs last night didn’t look to hot.

Another thing is Greinke pitches a lot better when he is not pitching in batter friendly Kaufman stadium. We will see what happens.

If anyone get reset tomorrow, please do NOT post anything about “well, there could be one more game if there is a tiebreaker…., etc.”

If it didn’t get done with regular 162 games, the 163rd game will not do it.

“If anyone get reset tomorrow, please do NOT post anything about “well, there could be one more game if there is a tiebreaker…., etc.”

If it didn’t get done with regular 162 games, the 163rd game will not do it.”

That’s not true.

I remember being able to make picks last year during the Twins/Tigers tiebreaking game.

You can keep making picks up to 3 games outside the supposed limit. 1 day of makeup games and 2 days for a 3-way tiebreaker.

Home run leader “wakeupand” @7 got reset with Juan Francisco’s PH double, it was the 2nd straight day he took a non starter and this time the PH stint occurred. On regular beat the streak it would have been good.

Pujols Homers, I’m safe!

Carlos Gonzalez homers in the 1st.

Back to 1!

Tip of the weekend:
Last time Cubs were in Pittsburg the annnouncers spent alot of time talking about how PNC Park is a lefty hitters type park. Would not be a bad idea to pick Carlos Gonzalez in HR BTS on Sat and Sunday. I’ve got him for both days.

Picking Jeter to pass Babe Ruth in hits on Saturday.

_em_on ——-I watched ChiSox game on Friday evening and Konerko got two nice singles. I’m locked in on him for Sat. Best Chi Sox now are Alexi Ramirez, Konerko or Pierre who is on a 13 game hit streak. Alex Rios is up and down too much for me.
Now pinch hitting for Dave Felman – Ian Kay
Ian can you handle the curve ball? Read on: The Survivor page on BTS, When you go to Standings, you can not get beyond the first page to see the standing of those ranked below 18 (which is all of us!). The tech staff at MLB was working on this and for one day I could go back a few pages but today the word “Next” on the lower left of screen that moves you back pages is gone! Is the tech staff working on this or are we now permanently not able to move back from page one?
HR – BTS – Sat and Sunday Carlos Gonzalez
(Can Albert the Great Homer off Johnson in Fla?)
Survivor – Many favorites losing lately – Going with TB
Good luck to all today!
Sunday is D – Day to get to 57.

Trying to decide whether to go with Alex Rios – will he pull it back together after a night off? Baltimore seems to be on fire under new leadership, but I love to pick hitters against Millwood. Will Konerko get anything to hit?

Good luck everyone

I am going with Mauer today as he hits Carmona pretty well. He also went hit-less yesterday and I think he will rebound with at least one hit today. Plus, it is Cleveland and I like to pick against them and Baltimore. I would go for someone against Millwood, but I just don’t ever feel confident picking someone from the White Sox. GL all today.

Another right pick lost in survivor yesterday with the White Sox. I’m taking the Marlins today with Josh Johnson and somehow they will lose.
I’m taking Miguel Cabrera on Beat the Streak and Robinson Cano on HR BTS.

@_em_. Thought I saw on rotoworld this AM that Rios has a wrist problem — may not play or may pinch hit as a result?. Rios lovers out there, if this is true, stay away from players with nagging injuries as it’s not worth the risk this late in the BTS season.

@dragbunt104: regarding Survivor “Next” link.
For time being a workaround:
1) One 1st page, click Current Streak or Longest Streak
2) When page refreshes change page number manually
In the top of your browser you’ll see the URL. In that URL, you’ll see among the characters: &pg=1. Change that to &pg=2 (for 2nd page) and hit your enter key. That should move you to the next page.
This tip works on all the BTS games and is a quick way to jump to page 100 if interested.

Highest no selections:
BTS:”seanggurvey,Tcox” on pages 10,12 with hit streaks of 12.
HR BTS:9 on pages 4,7,8,9 with HR streaks of 2.
Survivor:”houseofcabinets” on page 1 with a win streak of 13.
All “No selections” back to 0.

00liber said no Top 2500 posting today, so I thought I’d at least post the bloggers group for him. Using his format and not that difficult to jump to specific pages, it wasn’t that difficult to find the group’s leaders:
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
bmoccabee, 10 , pg 22, 488, J.Votto
_EM_, 8, pg 49, 1220, A.Rios
im4o4, 7, pg 69, 1686, P.Konerko
Dave55, 7, pg 73, 1819, C.Gonzalez

@bmoccabee: Bad luck with Votto. But today is better than after today for resets. No more second chances starting tomorrow.

Thanks Pony, but i made it back home just in time to be able to include ALL games so here ya’ll go…
LaV’s List
Saturday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 163 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki 544 21.76(4TH & 5TH)
Paul Konerko 217 8.68
Miguel Cabrera 125 5
Carl Crawford 109 4.36
Derek Jeter 99 3.96
Placido Polanco 83 3.32(5TH)
Rafael Furcal 75 3
Joe Mauer 70 2.8(5TH)
Robinson Cano 68 2.72
Carlos Gonzalez 64 2.56
No Selection 63 2.52
Josh Hamilton 58 2.32(2ND & 3RD)
Albert Pujols 42 1.68
Joey Votto 41 1.64
Delmon Young 36 1.44
Marco Scutaro 18 0.72(5TH)
Bobby Abreu 9 0.36(1RST & 5TH)

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 10 with a streak of 12 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

bmoccabee, 10 , pg 22, 488, J. Votto
_EM_, 8, pg 49, 1195, A. Rios
im4o4, 7, pg 69, 1686, P. Konerko
Dave55, 7, pg 73, 1686, C. Gonzalez

GL to all
M

Jeter’s making me nervous with my 8 game streak on the line, 1+ more at bats. Atleast it’s a tie game for now.

Hey guys and girls. I just got home from work but here are my picks anyway.

BTS-Ichiro

HR BTS- Vladimir Guerrero

Survivor-Rockies

Good luck to all today.

With Josh Hamilton going 0-fer, 2nd & 3rd place are now gone. First place moves on but streak is not exactly large enough to be cause for concern yet. For any of us that get reset today, still have a chance at the big bucks barring no whammies.

Damn, I knew Konerko would go 0 for X once I saw that dragbunt104 had picked him.

That guy is doing TERRIBLE this year.

The only good thing about that is that the luck normally reverses just as sharply at some point.

So this guy is one to follow for 2011.

At least the White Sox rallied to win to push my Survivor win streak to 7 games!

Miguel Cabrera singled so I’m at 4.

Thanks, everyone, for your good advice re: Rios. Unfortunately (?) I blogged this morning and didn’t get back to the comuter until just now, so I didn’t get to follow any of it :/. Now I’m just holding my breath. …

Marlins win, thank goodness my survivor losing streak is over. @_em_on: Rio’s has a hit so you’re safe.

This is the make orbreak day for ChiSox Alex “El Sol Gatto” Rios. He is o-fer the past two day games.
If it wasn’t for bad luck, I would have no luck at all.
I’ll post my Sunday pick tomorrow as a warning of the player you should stay away from at all costs! lol :)
I actually had the ChiSox in Survivor on Sat and yes they won!

ponyforkeana – Got info I was looking for from Current Streaks page. thanks – dragbunt104

Just when you thought you hit rock bottom you find a new low! Switched my pick on Sat in Survivor from ChiSox to TB!

Sunday as promised my picks:
Stay away from:
BTS – Juan Pierre
HR – James Loney
Survivor – LAD

Last chance to pick against Suppan? STL Lohse probably returning to rotation in next few days. Though Suppan is pitching, taking STL to win & Sir Albert to hit.
Change in your attitudes starting today? Maybe confidence is shaky? Starting today, a bit more pressure knowing that every pick you make could be your last for a chance at $3mil. Similar to how managers treat 2nd half of season: every game counts from here on! Each time 00liber posts the Top2500 listing from now on, any “No Selections” are, in effect, giving up on the big prize willingly.

Crud. STL-FLA rain delay and weather.com doesn’t look promising except possibly in about 1.5-2 hours. Thank goodness I wasn’t reset last night else a postponed game equals loss at $3mil. The picks page doesn’t even mention rain at the game & it appears to be storming.

Well today is the day I hope that I can finally get something decent going. Here’s hoping for the best. It’s either make or break now.

BTS-Delmon Young- Hits lefties well and he had an 0 fer yesterday so hoping he gets at least one hit.

HR BTS-Jason Kubel-He has a homer the last 2 days and hoping he does it again today. Wind is blowing out in Cleveland towards right field so maybe

Survivor-Brewers-Gallardo is pitching but weirder things have happened and hoping I can get a nice little run going in Survivor.

Good luck to everybody else today.

My picks
HR Beat the Streak: Albert Pujols
Beat the Streak: Joe Mauer or Albert Pujols
Survivor: Twins, Brewers or Padres

I’ve taken Joe Mauer for Beat the Streak and the Twins for survivor.
@ponyforkeana: This time I’ve taken the same player/team combo for BTS and survivor.

Highest no selections;
Home run Beat the Streak:”nirvana69″ page 1 with a HR streak of 5.
Beat the Streak:”pandago420″ on page 9 with a hit streak of 12.
Survivor:”z’wingz_fan23″ on page 1 with a winning streak of 12.
All “No selections” in each game reset to 0.
All Beat the Streak “No selections” are eliminated from $3,000,000 contention.

Joe Mauer singled in the 1st so I’m at 5.

Alex Rios gets to keep his nick-name of “El Sol Gatto” as he had a sharp single to left in the first inning.

Today is D-Day. If you don’t have a 1 game streak going after today you are officially eliminated from winning the top prize of 3MIL.(Pending of course any tie-breaker games)
LaV’s List
Sunday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 196 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Robinson Cano 183 7.32(2ND)
Joe Mauer 180 7.2(GOOD)
Albert Pujols 177 7.08
Ichiro Suzuki 171 6.84
Adrian Beltre 157 6.28(2ND)
Delmon Young 121 4.84(2ND)
Troy Tulowitzki 89 3.56
Miguel Cabrera 82 3.28
No Selection 76 3.04 OUT OF RUNNING FOR 3MIL
Joey Votto 60 2.4
James Loney 55 2.2
Placido Polanco 52 2.08
Josh Hamilton 48 1.92
Nick Markakis 44 1.76
Matt Holliday 36 1.44
Hanley Ramirez 28 1.12(2ND)
Clint Barmes 15 0.6(1RST)
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was WAY up to 48.3% with Ichiro reseting the most.
But better yesterday than today. And 14.7% paused.

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 9 with a streak of 12 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

_EM_, 9, pg 26, 592, D. Young
Dave55, 8, pg 34, 837, J. Mauer
forcook, 7, pg 52, 1221, R. Cano
popi21 7, pg 57, 1221, A. Pujols
darwi 6, pg 83, 1788, A. Pujols
bmoccabee, 10 , RESET BY J. Votto
im4o4, 7, RESET BY P. Konerko

GL to all
M

What happens if the StLouis game gets suspended and Pujols is 0 for 1? Does anyone know?

Well the rules say that if a game is suspended but does not resume within 3 days than all hits will not count for that gameday. It won’t go against you either, it is like it didn’t happen. So I think and hope for all who picked Pujols, that if the game is not resumed than it will be like it never happened. They cannot resume within 3 days because the Cards open a three game series with the Reds starting tomorrow. That is just my thought though, I am not exactly sure.

Have a question if some one can help answering it…. I am aware that today is the drop dead to make it to 57… HOWEVER in the event several double headers are scheduled….. If you choose to pick one of these double headers and the player gets hits in both games…. are you or are you not credit for 2 games?… If so this could add a few more days to the drop dead day for 57….Thanks

Dan

@popi21: Like you, I had Pujols also. Game simply does not count in this case. As if both teams did not play. However, if anyone had a streak of zero this morning and picked a Cardinal or Marlin, they are out of the $3mil race, with only 56 more gamedays now left (barring any 1-game playoffs).

@danpranka. You should take a few minutes to read the rules of the game you are playing. The answer to your question is you will not get credit for 2 games.

“This is the make orbreak day for ChiSox Alex “El Sol Gatto” Rios. He is o-fer the past two day games. ”

Rios is very cold right now.

I stayed away from him because of that.

“Sunday as promised my picks:
Stay away from:
BTS – Juan Pierre
HR – James Loney
Survivor – LAD”

I almost went with the White Sox to win, but saw the Dodgers at the end of the page and picked them.

Thankfully I did that, to run my win streak to 8 games!

Twins Win for survivor and the Yankees beat the Red Sox, Great Day!

Pierre goes 1-4 on Sunday!

Didn’t gfc2112 picked Colorado Rockie Clint Barmes Aug. 7, 2010? Barmes went 0-4 on that date.

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