Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, August 17

480x270_Polanco.jpg

And the beat goes on.

An Ichiro Suzuki fourth-inning single catapulted Geoff Croke (“gfc2112″) to a 41-game streak.

For those scoring at home but don’t know how, this means two things:

(1) Croke is only a 16-game streak away from $3,000,000.

(2) Croke is only a three-game streak away from displacing the oh-so-lovable Dick George and (likely) taking home $10,000.

Glad I could clear that up.

And don’t think I forgot about the rest of you streakers, as Ichiro’s
single also pressed the forward button on 25.8 percent of the entire
population.

I’d never forget about the rest of you guys. Come on!

The first commandment of streakdom is that all streaks are created equal.

Just, ya know, some are more equal than others.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Placido Polanco: .800 AVG (8-for-10) since ’05 vs. Giants starter Barry Zito

? Miguel Cabrera: .636 AVG (7-for-11) lifetime vs. Yankees starter CC Sabathia

? Michael Cuddyer: .488 AVG (20-for-41) lifetime vs. White Sox starter John Danks

? Ichiro Suzuki: .405 AVG (30-for-74) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Kevin Millwood

? Asdrubal Cabrera: .458 AVG (11-for-24) lifetime vs. Royals starter Zack Greinke

? Hanley Ramirez: .500 AVG (6-for-12) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Zach Duke

? Derek Jeter: .389 AVG (7-for-18) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Gerald Laird: .467 AVG (7-for-15) lifetime vs. Yankees starter CC Sabathia

You’ll thank me later …

? Mark Teixeira: .071 AVG (1-for-14) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

? Torii Hunter: .111 AVG (1-for-9) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz

? Evan Longoria: .111 AVG (1-for-9) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Tommy Hunter

? Josh Hamilton: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza

Leaderboard time!

“Jeabullseye” now stands alone in second place after successfully riding Miguel Cabrera to a 26-game streak.

“Jeabullseye” is only 31 games away from taking home the $3,000,000.

Wait, what’s that?

Oh, sorry, let me try that again.

“Jeabullseye” is only 31 games away and needs Croke to spontaneously combust in order to take home the $3,000,000.

Much better.

Top MLB streakers

? Alexei Ramirez: 10 games

? Bobby Abreu: 8 games

? Jose Lopez: 8 games

? Logan Morrison: 8 games

? Ian Stewart: 8 games

? Dan Uggla: 8 games 

53 Comments

What’s up everybody. Been a crazy couple of days but I still feel the leader is going to fall. You can’t get by on 1 hit for too many days. As for today I have Pujols in BTS and HR BTS. I was watching MLB Network and they said he gets better as the year goes on so I figured why not. Lost my Survivor streak but still have time and chose the Cards.

BTS and HR BTS- Pujols
Survivor-Cards
Good luck to all today.

Minimum current streak required, entering today, to have a chance at the prizes (assuming season ends Oct 3rd)
Abbreviations: DL=Deadline, CS=Current Streak needed, TS=Target Streak
(*) Playing for a tie? add 1 to DL and minus 1 from CS & TS
BTS Countdown
Top Prize ($3M): CS:9, TS:57, DL:Aug 8th
*Consolation ($10K): CS:0, TS:44, DL:Aug 21st (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/bts/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes
Survivor Countdown {tickets are for 2011 All-Star Game & Homerun Derby}
Top Prize (2 tickets+travel+hotel+$10K): CS:0, TS:37, DL:Aug 28th
*Consolation (2 tickets only): CS:0, TS:30, DL:Sept 4th (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/survivor/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes

Chicago Report:
Derrek Lee of Cubs took Monday night off and had “treatment” for a bulging disc – Stay away – one wrong twist and he is on the DL and your streak is at zero.
ChiSox and Twins = too close to call, I’m staying away.
BTS – Ichiro
HR BTS – Sir Albert v. Brewers
Survivor – Cards at home v. Brew Crew
Future tip: Watch for Troy Tulo in next Rockies day game.

I really hope all you guys picking the Cardinals are right. In fact, a sweep sounds pretty good to me after losing a disappointing series to the Cubbies. Oh and Vinny? You’re right about Albert. August has historically been his hottest month and this August has been no different. He’s really getting hot at the plate.

- Tiffany
http://redbirdfever.mlblogs.com/

I was in the Ichiro party last nite and don’t want to be “caught” with the leader again. I was in the “take one for the team” with Joe Mauer earlier in the year when someone fell and I got reset and don’t want to be in that spot again.
Top 5 Most likely players that I think could be picked by the leader “gfc2112″.
1.Albert Pujols
2.Joe Mauer
3.Miguel Cabrera
4.Ichiro Suzuki
5.Placido Polanco

I’m going to stay away from that stack and take Omar Infante for BTS, Paul Konerko for HR BTS and the Braves for survivor.

Here is hoping the leader and everyone else who got by on Ichiro yesterday go for it again today. Millwood burned Ichiro once this year. I was a victim of that. I can’t reacall if it happened again later. But Ichiro has not been hitting Millwood that well even last year when he was lot hotter. His #s against Millwood used to be hight .400s I recall.

@yanksgiantsdevils33: Don’t play that game, you could be sorry. I’ve played it and was. I would intentionally not pick someone because the leader or everyone else probably would pick him and went with another. What happens at times? The leader moves on & you get reset. You just have to pick who you feel has a good chance of hitting. If it’s the same as the leader, then so be it.
Your pick has no bearing on the leader obviously. In Mauer’s case, it was just that dreaded 20% BTS failure rate catching up with you; that’s all. If you do play that game, ensure your pick is as good as the one you are avoiding, don’t settle for someone much weaker.
Yesterday, I played that game avoiding Ichiro/Cabrera and picked Wright (3-4 last nite). I felt he was a great pick against a so-so lefty & was rewarded. But Ichiro/Cabrera also got hits. There’s no such think as a jinx!

Check the numbers; Dan Uggla looks like a lock tonight. I wish I could say the same for the Reds. They apparently struggle against teams which also wear red uniforms, like the St. Louis Little *******.
?Professor Pete

Sip y’all.
BTS: Jon Jay
HR: A-roid
Surv: StL.
GL to all. Hopefully top2500 will be posted shorty after lock, as long as MLB.com isn’t messed up again.
M

Well, the leader took a big, risky gamble today taking Hanley. He hasn’t hit in 2 games and is absolutely horrible against lefties this year. Though he has hit PIT Duke well in the past. So will his lefty-slump continue tonight? Leader hopes not, the rest of us hope so.

A couple big-name players back in the lineups: Prado, Utley, Pedroia
I like these 1 AB hits, where were they before I was mathematically eliminated for a chance at $3M? Ugh! Oh well, Posey moves me along today.

BTS: Joe Mauer (0)
HR BTS: Carlos Pena (2)
Survivor: Indians (1)

Hanley Ramirez: 0 for 2!

So much for Hanley having an 0-fer tonight. Single to centerfield in his 3rd AB.

Ichiro 0-3, Hanley just singled.
LaV’s List
Tuesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 129 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki 553 22.34(3RD & 5TH)
Miguel Cabrera 269 10.87
Hanley Ramirez 216 8.73(1RST,2ND & 4TH)(GOOD)
Joe Mauer 166 6.71
Albert Pujols 160 6.46
Matt Holliday 152 6.14
Dan Uggla 132 5.33(GOOD)
Omar Infante 84 3.39(4TH)(GOOD)
Placido Polanco 50 2.02(GOOD)

Derek Jeter 45 1.82
Michael Cuddyer 39 1.58
Andre Ethier 39 1.58
No Selection 35 1.41
Joey Votto 29 1.17

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was ??% with R. Cano killing(5.4%) the most hopes and dreams.
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 7 with a streak of 15 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

forcook, 16, pg 4, 84, I. Suzuki
jpaul74(bullfrogs), 14, pg 9, 189, M. Stanton(2X in TOP2500)
baseballgirlie13, 12, pg 22, 530, I. Suzuki
gamara21, 9, pg, 73, 1275, A. Pujols

GL to all
M

Mini-drama ends again on 3rd AB. Dick George will be pretty anxious to see if leader ties him tomorrow — and so will we.

The leader is a solid picker. This guy is going to go far……

Wow. He moves on!

Professor Pete – A big tip of my Cub hat to you for the info on Uggla today. I switched to him from Ichiro. Your “lock” picks are always well thought out and accurate!
Lets go Cardinals in Survivor.

Omar Infante is 2 for 3, Paul Konerko has homered and the Braves are up 4-2.

Highest No selection on survivor levs1989 on page 1 with a winning streak of 10 now reset to 0.

STL lovers in Survivor are not surviving. 3 straight losses by STL is clearing the leaderboard; that & the NYY loss last night. Pretty soon, and at this rate, single digit streaks are going to be atop the 1st page in Survivor.

Highest no selections;
Home Run Beat the Streak: willis0022 on page 3 with a HR streak of 3.
Beat the Streak:arnon420 on page 7 with a hit streak of 15.
No selections are now back to 0.

My bong just took me to 10. Thank you Suzuki for another multiple hit game. Seven out 10 games are multiple hits games. I am justing waiting for the leader to fall off the top. No way he is gonna get to 57 with his one hit per day approach. He croaks before the weekend. That is what my bong hit says.

Dave at a meeting or did he perhaps he got bit by a tsetse fly when he took that weekend safari trip to Africa and now has sleeping sickness?
Speaking of sleeping sickness – the Cub bats – except for my favorite Cub – Starlin Castro!
Wed
BTS- Starlin Castro
Ozzie Guillen – please stop batting Alexi Ramirez 8th
HR – Sir Albert the Great
Survivor – Cards with Wainwright on the hill in a home game.
Lost my 8 game survivor streak on Cards yesterday so today go go Cards!

Anybody know where today’s blog is? I keep refreshing but nothing is up yet.

Not posted yet. Dave must be in meetings again.

As long as you’re blogging on this one, let me ask you a question. You’ve been playing this for 10 years now.
Let’s say Leader ends BTS with streak of 48. One doesn’t want to necessarily stop playing if they can get close to 48 just in case the leader is disqualified for having multiple accounts or another reason. Has any leader ever been disqualified that you know of? If so, how did they inform the BTS world?

Well Pony, no leader has ever been disqualified yet but they didn’t come back the next year either. It has happened every year for ten years so far that I remember. The leader the previous year didn’t play the next year. I don’t know why that happened but it’s interesting.

How do you know the leader from one year didn’t play the next?

“… The leader the previous year didn’t play the next year. I don’t know why that happened but it’s interesting.”
Would be nice if this year’s leader posted back and told everyone whether he was allowed to play again or not. Maybe something to do with accepting the prize? Don’t know. Maybe Dave Feldman (blog writer) can answer the question?

Oh, and if you forfeit ability to play again by accepting the prize, makes the decision of accepting the consolation prize difficult IMO. If that was the agreement, then accept $10k (minus taxes) and not play again? Or tell them to keep it so you can take your chances for the millions next year.

Hey all, Ive got the top2500 all done and ready to post but i think that i will wait till Dave posts todays blog.
M

Starlin Castro bounces a “seeing eye grounder” up the middle for a single in the 8th inning at Wrigley Field.
yanksgiantsdevils33 – Don’t give up on the group. We all have rough stretches. You joined later in the year and missed my MVP post. Never take Mauer, Pujols or Votto (MVP) in BTS. OK to take them in HR only. I have the Cards today too— remember: Sh– happens!

I am getting out of the bloggers group! That group has been nothing but a curse to me.
Before joining the group I had 3 double digit streaks with the longest being 17. I started typing on the blogs before the 17 streak so I know it’s not the blog that’s bad it’s the “blog group curse.”
Since joining the best streak I’ve had is 7 in that group and twice within the last 2 weeks i may end up getting reset @5 as Pujols is 0 for 3 with 1AB left and might get walked.

I also had him in Home run and the Cardinals in survivor so I maybe reset in all three games with St. Louis losing 3-0.

yanksgiantsdevils33: superstitious? When you pick the best players on the team, you have to expect limited amount of quality pitches to get hits with. If he comes up to bat with bases empty or bases loaded, then your pick has best chance of being pitched to. This is probably more true during 2nd half of the season. And regarding Survivor, just bad luck.
Anyway Pujols just doubled in last AB, so your BTS streak is safe for one more day. But keep picking from the A-list and you’ll get burned eventually, as we all do.

Me and my bong are flying high on Byrd this afternoon to 11. My bong said Scott Rolen is broken today. I hope he is correct.

Bong-free. TB & Longoria move me along in Survivor/BTS.

Guess it’s safe to say no new blog page today.
So… Leader is forcing us & Dick George to wait deep into the night to see if the streak continues. No matter to the rest of us really. If it continues tomorrow, that effects all of us as it drops the deadline for $10K prize. The deadline is the date you can no longer get reset. Each day the leader’s streak continues, starting tomorrow, the deadline moves back a day. Currently it’s this Saturday!

@yanksgiantsdevils33. Here’s a tip for Survivor. I’ve been doing this for 2 weeks now & it really works well. Don’t rely on a team just because their Ace is pitching. Ace’s have bad days too.
1) Look at the BTS page to get an idea of a starting lineup’s average against opposing pitcher. If majority of team hits very well against him, probably a good pick.
2) Go to Rotoworld.com every day and make notes of who they say is not in the lineup. Adjust your picks based on that information

For example. After gathering data, yesterday I changed my pick to ATL because Prado was added to a good lineup. Tipped the scales for me. Today I changed my pick to TB because I saw Adrus, Young, Cruz (DL) wasn’t in the TEX lineup. Also tipped the scales for me

Using this “strategy”, I’d be in double digits today if I didn’t get reset with KC 2-hitting NYY Sunday. So…
3) Don’t pick against a pitcher the team hasn’t seen before.

“Soft line drive to center field” and Rolen creates a tie between the leader with Dick George. Now 57 games and $3M are just 14 days away; though that is still significant. The question o’day is, “What will the streak end at?” Guess we’ll just have to wait & see.

Another “soft” hit for the leader. This nonse has to stop soon. How many more days will he go on 1 hit per day? Those 1 hits are barely hits to begin with. If someone is gonna win this, I want someone who does it with more conviction that Rolens barely getting a bat on the ball or Ichiro beating out a cheap grounder to second base. Everyday is like this with this guy. At least, when Dick got lucky, he got a solid hits on the last ABs.

This nonse stops tomorrow!

I know everyone wants the leader to fall because they want to win the money themselves. But either way, a hit is a hit and it doesn’t matter if it barely gets out of the infield or Ichiro beats out a grounder. Ichiro does that a lot so it’s normal for him anyway. I wouldn’t care if my guy got one hit everyday and I broke the streak by getting 57 hits in 57 days. Luck is part of this game, which is why nobody has won it yet. If you want to root against the guy, do it because you want to win, not because you think it’s nonsense or ridiculous that he gets one hit a couple days in a row. I for one want him to win because I want someone to prove it can happen. Sure I wish it was me but if I can’t win it then someone else might. Anyway, I moved to 14 with Pujols today (last at bat hit) and hope to tie my best tomorrow at 15. GL everyone.

“Luck is part of this game, which is why nobody has won it yet. If you want to root against the guy, do it because you want to win, not because you think it’s nonsense or ridiculous that he gets one hit a couple days in a row.”

Yeah but not if it happens almost everyday. His one hit game has been going on for awhile already. And many of them are barely hits to begin with. This is not just last 2 days. There were countless others. Actually, its a rare exception when that does not happen like Tulo 3 days ago. How would like to have the kind of Pujols luck you had today happen to you 2 out of every 3 days?

1 hit a day is no problem as long as you get through, and goodluck to my fellow townsman geoff croke althought I want to win haha

I wouldn’t mind at all if I had that luck every day . A hit is a hit and it doesn’t matter how it happens. I didn’t mean to start an argument, I was just saying that as long as I get a hit that is all that matters. Nobody in their right mind would say that they would rather go hitless than get one hit everyday. All it takes is one and right now he is getting it. GL Geoff!!

Hey everybody. I wasn’t around earlier as I was working but I chose Asdrubal Cabrera today. He hits lefties well and Chen struggles against righties and Cabrera is on a hitting streak so the pick looked good and he went 3 for 5. I really think leader is going down by Friday as you can’t squeeze by on one hit a day. I want somebody to win it myself to prove it’s possible and it will happen but not this year I don’t think. Also I know that the leader the year before never played the next year as I remember the name they used and I doubt they would change it the next year in order to play that year and never saw that name ever on the leader boards so I think they don’t want you playing every year if you win something which would bite.

Hmmm…. No post from Dave or Ian today, hope all is good. I’m going to bed but will post today’s top2500 tomorrow along with tomorrows numbers. Congrats to mr. Croke and I as well would like to see someone win this just for the sake of someone winning. I’d rather see one of us bloggers win( but I myself am eliminated ), we have 3 bloggers left with a chance at the big bucks. GL to my fellow bloggers and talk at y’all in the morning.
M

What number do you need to be at as of today(august 18th) to be eligible for the 3m grand prize? I realize Croke controls his own destiny, but by the odd chance he falters within the next two weeks, what number is needed as of today?

@bretzky26: I post the current streak needed on every blog. The one for Wed is at the top. Just add 1 more for Thurs.
@btsplayer & all: Regarding a hit is a hit argument. A hit, is after all, a hit. Whether a cheap swinging bunt or bloop single to a line drive to the wall or over the wall, a hit is still a hit.
I like many others, don’t want anyone to win except of course, me. I gripe and silently curse the cheap hits of our leaders’ picks too. And if I’m honest with myself, I’m griping cause either I made a bad pick or I perceive the luck to be unfair.
Come President Obama, if we’re headed towards a socialized society, force Dick George, Geoff Croke and all other super-lucky players to spread the luck-wealth to us less fortunate! I want others to pay for my misfortunes.

“@bretzky26: I post the current streak needed on every blog. The one for Wed is at the top. Just add 1 more for Thurs.”
Misspoke: Tues streak requirement is posted at top & add 1 for Wed. Thursday (today) should have a new blog page & I’ll post the updates there.

Here’s yesterdays list since Dave didnt post a blog. Will post todays list on todays blog.
LaV’s List
Wednesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 155 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Albert Pujols 284 11.36(4TH)
Vladimir Guerrero 273 10.92(6TH)
Joey Votto 202 8.08(3RD & 4TH)
Ichiro Suzuki 189 7.56
Joe Mauer 108 4.32
Dustin Pedroia 87 3.48
Miguel Cabrera 86 3.44
Adrian Gonzalez 80 3.2
Robinson Cano 77 3.08
Victor Martinez 73 2.92(2ND)
Josh Hamilton 71 2.84
Martin Prado 62 2.48
No Selection 48 1.92
Scott Rolen 21 0.84(1RST)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 23% with killing the most hopes and dreams. And 4.5% paused.
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 6 with a streak of 16 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

forcook, 17, pg 4, 68, V. Guerrero
baseballgirlie13, 13, pg 17, 392, A. Pujols
gamara21, 10, pg, 65, 972, M. Prado
jpaul74(bullfrogs), 14 RESET BY M. Stanton

GL to all
M

If new blog not posted before games lock, you can get that info from the main MLB fantasy page (linked below). I add a comment there asking him to remember to update this blog too.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100819&content_id=13645178&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

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