Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, August 19

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Since I’m not eligible to win the $3 million Beat the Streak grand prize, I might as well try to help you out. Every weekday, make sure to check out the Beat the Streak Report to improve your odds with all the stats goodness you could ever dream of. You know, assuming you could use an extra three mill.

August 19

Geoff Croke just keeps Rolen along.

Our leader, a.k.a. “gfc2112,” is sitting pretty at 43 games after a 1-for-5 performance by the Reds third baseman last night at Arizona.

Was the .285 career hitter a slightly risky pick? Sure — he wasn’t among Wednesday’s 15 most popular selections.

But he came into the game with seven hits in his last 11 at-bats, and I can’t ever fault a streaker for picking against Rodrigo Lopez and a D-backs relief corps that close couldn’t the bullpen door, let alone a game.

Anyway, the popular picks also panned out yesterday, with 12 of the 13 most-used players advancing gamers — if you count Joey Votto and Alex Rodriguez receiving the ol’ did-not-play pass.

Vlad Guerrero and Albert Pujols led the way, each going 1-for-4 to help a combined 16.6 percent of players.

Time for Thursday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

James Loney: .533 AVG (8-for-15) lifetime vs. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa

Denard Span: .429 AVG (12-for-28) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle

Ryan Ludwick: .500 AVG (7-for-14) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano

Miguel Cabrera: .444 AVG (4-for-9) lifetime vs. Yankees starter Phil Hughes

Feeling kinda spicy?

Howard Kendrick: .409 AVG (9-for-22) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Josh Beckett

You’ll thank me later …

Adrian Beltre: .186 AVG (8-for-43) lifetime vs. Angels starter Ervin Santana

Alexei Ramirez: .125 AVG (2-for-16) lifetime vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

Jimmy Rollins: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez

Andre Ethier: .091 AVG (1-for-11) lifetime vs. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa

Leaderboard time!

Croke has pulled away from the pack Secretariat style, but “Jeabullseye” keeps chugging along in second place at 28 games.

“rtaylor2001″ and “warriorcub” remain tied for third two games back.

They’ll to need to kick their picking skills into high gear to make up that 15-game gap. I recommend searching the internet for BTS cheat codes. The one that starts with A, B, left trigger usually works.

Or not.

Top MLB streakers

Alexei Ramirez: 12 games 

Bobby Abreu: 10 games 

Jose Lopez: 10 games 

Dan Uggla: 10 games 

Carl Crawford: 9 games 

David Ortiz: 9 games 

B.J. Upton: 9 games 

32 Comments

Entering today: 46 game days remaining. Minimum current streak required to have a chance at the prizes (assuming season ends Oct 3rd).
Abbreviations: DL=Streak Start Deadline, CS=Current Streak Needed, TS=Target
(*) Playing for a tie? add 1 to DL and minus 1 from CS & TS
BTS Countdown
Top Prize ($3M): CS:11, TS:57, DL:Aug 8th
*Consolation ($10K): CS:0, TS:44, DL:Aug 21st (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/bts/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes
NOTE: Deadline moves backwards each day high streak continues
Survivor Countdown {tickets are for 2011 All-Star Game & Homerun Derby}
Top Prize (2 tickets+travel+hotel+$10K): CS:0, TS:37, DL:Aug 28th
*Consolation (2 tickets only): CS:0, TS:30, DL:Sept 4th (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/survivor/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes

Well we get two blogs instead of one today but we know things happen. I can’t wait until 1 to see who the leader picked but I’m still going as well and here are my picks and I would like to say I should be at 4 in HR BTS but on Monday I changed from Miggy to Stanton and that was a mistake but oh well.
BTS- Hanley, he hits Maholm well and is hitting .393 in Pitt in his career even after the 0 fer yesterday but I like the odds that he hits Maholm against so that is my pick.
HR BTS- Hamilton, he hasn’t hit a homer in a few days so he’s due and wind is blowing out to right in Balt.
Survivor-Tampa Bay, I had the Twins but Chisox are playing for the division title and they don’t want to fall further back so I switched to Tampa. Sonnanstine has been making spot starts for injured players and has been pitching awesome in those spots and Tampa is tied for first so they have a lot to play for so that is my pick.
Good luck to rest of my fellow bloggers today. Moment of truth is in 5 mins.

I like ATL for Survivor. NATs missing Dunn/I-Rod in lineup while AT playing near full strength. Hoping Prado gets a hit or two.

Regarding leader’s pick… Gotta wait and see.
Loney hasn’t faced De La Rosa this year, he’s batting 4th @ home (probably) and is only batting 220 since All-Star break but improving a bit @ 262 for August. Guess we hope for a low scoring game and a lefty reliever facing him in 8th/9th if hes 0-fer at that point. Let MLB deal with tie breaker rules for Geoff & Dick.

LaV’s List
Thursday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 142 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Delmon Young 232 9.28(2ND & 3RD)
Victor Martinez 186 7.44
Hanley Ramirez 183 7.32
Miguel Cabrera 172 6.88(GOOD)(3RD)
Josh Hamilton 154 6.16
Robinson Cano 136 5.44(GOOD)
Vladimir Guerrero 127 5.08
Omar Infante 85 3.4(GOOD)(5TH)
Michael Young 76 3.04
Joe Mauer 64 2.56
Placido Polanco 52 2.08
Derek Jeter 50 2(GOOD)
Nick Swisher 49 1.96(GOOD)

Adrian Gonzalez 48 1.92(currently 0-3)
No Selection 37 1.48
James Loney 32 1.28(1RST)
Alex Gonzalez 13 0.52(GOOD)(5TH)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 15% with J. Hamilton killing the most hopes and dreams. And 5.9% paused.
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 1 with a streak of 21 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

forcook, 18, pg 3, 55, M. Cabrera(GOOD)
baseballgirlie13, 14, pg 15, 295, M. Cabrera(GOOD)
gamara21, 11, pg, 50, 779, M. Prado(GOOD)

potdude48, 11, pg 59, 779, E. Andrus

GL to all
M

@vinny1979: Your streak stays steady today, unless pinching. Hanley out of lineup (day of rest) per rotoworld.com
@any one else: Pedroia (foot) out of lineup today

WRIGLEY FIELD
Friday 8-20
Wind blowing out toward left field
HR BTS tip:
Dempster gives up alot of HR’s
Jurgin’s of Braves is HR hittable (Soriano?)
BTS – ChiSox v. KC – Pierre, Alexi Ramirez, Konerko are hot.
19 hits so far v. Twins tonight

@dragbunt: You picked just about the only Twins to get a hit. Bottom 8th; doubtful Mauer/Span come up again. Delmon Young just pulled; all 0-fer. Add to those 0-fers Polanco, Hamilton, V.Martinez & a few other notables, it’s going to be a rough BTS day. Here’s hoping Loney joins that group tonight — his game just underway.

I know very little about COL pitchers except of course Jimenez. Didn’t even know De La Rosa was a southpaw. Loney is hitting just 221 this year against lefties. Leader doesn’t check the splits obviously. But then again, he picked Hanley, who has very similar numbers against lefties, & we all know Hanley moved the leader along a couple days ago against a lefty. Loney is another pick against the odds, will leader’s luck hold out yet another day? Currently in 4th, 0 for 2, due up again in 6th/7th.

I guess high batting avg. against the pitcher don’t mean Jack when you’re not hitting. Then again, the leader should have learned that lesson when he got away with the same MO for how many times? The line between a hit and 0-fer is very thin. You can only skate on that for so long.

Thank you COL manager for not being a lazy bum and bringing in the LHP. That is why COL had so many come from behind wins. They don’t give up.

I am quite sure the tiebreaker goes to Dick. He had far less one hit games. According to one of the posts here, he had many multiple hit games up to low 30s. His string of one hit games only started a week before his fall.

Don’t rule out Dick yet. He has been furiously regathering himself ever since the new leader started to pack some hit. Dick is back up to 14 now.

Well Loney is 0-3 and is not scheduled to bat again in the game if the Dodgers hold the lead. If they do not get two more baserunners than he is done for the night and he leader will go down tied with Dick George. Wow, that would be crazy to have a tie breaker to decide the winner. If this guy doesn’t win I’m not sure anyone will this year.

Is the blog that dead? No one else wants to relieve a little anxiety by pounding on the keyboard?
Loney 0 for 3 after 6 innings, LAD leading @ home. However, only needs 1 more baserunner for a 4th AB in the 8th, barring being pinched hit.

Great run. I wish I could get a run even into the 20′s. I’ve only done that 1 time and it was like four years ago. I’m at 15 now which ties my season high. I had M.Cab today and I am going with him again tomorrow. Here’s hoping to getting past my season high. GL to everyone else who still has a chance.

LAD: 7th innning, 2 on, no outs. Loney’s spot will bat next inning, if not this inning. Is the “Fat Lady” practicing her scales?

Loney 3rd up in the bottom of the 8th. I wonder what Croaky is doing right now…

Gotta admit. Win or lose, at least this is a bit exciting. Moreso than when kbarr9 game within 2 of Dick George.

Mad props to ya if Loney doesn’t come through for ya tonight. It’s not easy picking 43 consecutive players to get hits. Believe me, I’d know, considering that this season, I have yet to get beyond 7.

1 out bottom of the 8th, nobody on.. Loney is on deck.

runner on 1st, Loney at the plate

Left-hander coming in to face Loney– Matt Reynolds.

Ball 1

2-0

Loney flied out to right field. Good effort.

He flied out! Now Croake will hope for Colorado to tie it up in the 9th..

“Regarding leader’s pick… Guess we hope for a low scoring game and a lefty reliever facing him in 8th/9th if he’s 0-fer at that point”
Man, did I nail it!!!!! No extra innings please.

It’d still take quite awhile for it to get back around to Loney’s position in the lineup.

True, but it’s all he can hope for now. I wonder who wins the tiebreaker between those two with 43.

btsplayer wrote: “Don’t rule out Dick yet. He has been furiously regathering himself ever since the new leader started to pack some hit. Dick is back up to 14 now.”
I’ve been keeping an eye on him since he was at 11. Seems to be still using his pattern and getting some last AB hits. 14 is 30 away from his high. I’m more interested in trying to not get mathematically eliminated by avoiding the reset starting Saturday-on.

Tie breaker rules for BTS leaders are on rules site. Would be better to split the $10K. The feat is amazing and deserves a nice reward.
Friday Aug 20
Cubs trade Derrek Lee to Braves 2 days ago. Braves are now in Chgo to play the Cubs. Derrek Lee starting at 1b for Braves today. But—I can not take him in HR game as his name is not listed with Brave players. He could go yard off his old teammate Dempster who give up alot of HR and wind in blowing out toward left field today.

@dragbunt104: If you really want Lee for HR BTS, try refreshing the picks page about 10 mins before game locks. BTS may be updated by then showing Lee as a Brave.
Side note. After being traded Wednesday, Lee didn’t show up in Braves lineup yesterday. Wonder if he told the team: “Bring my uniform with you guys Friday and I’ll just wait here for you.”

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