Beat the Streak Report: Monday, August 23

MigCabrera480BTS.jpg

We start this week with “warriorclub” atop the leaderboard with a
30-game streak. 30-game streaks are always attention worthy. There’s
some attention.

But this edition of the Beat the Streak Report is dedicated to our
season leader, Dick George. Oh, Dick George, how angelic of a human you
are.

Forget for a second that Mr. George is currently riding a 17-game streak
merely weeks after watching his 43-gamer evaporate — come on, we know
with Dick that it’s not and it never was about the money.

No, what makes Dick George a first-ballot Beat the Streak Hall of Famer
can be reflected in the e-mail he sent me over the weekend paying homage
and respect to Geoff Croke and his 43-gamer. I sic’d the daylights out
of this out of respect to my favorite hit oracle:

Naturally I have been following your recent streak closely along with
about 20-30 friends. I felt sure you would take the lead Thursday
night and I was ready to be 100% behind you as you went for the $3M. I
just want to congratulate you for your accomplishment. I know how hard
it is to get to 43 and I know it gets a little more nerve racking each
day when you get that high. My daughter lives in Brooklyn, I would love
to catch a Mets game with you sometime. Maybe when they play the
Giants, my favorite team.

Finished crying yet?

Good, now let’s try to make this little rendezvous a reality.

Time for Monday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Miguel Cabrera: .625 AVG (5-for-8) lifetime vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen

? Ichiro Suzuki: .321 AVG (18-for-56) since ’05 vs. Red Sox starter John Lackey

? Johnny Damon: .529 AVG (10-for-19) career vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen

? Howard Kendrick: .583 AVG (7-for-12) lifetime vs. Rays starter James Shields

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Yuniesky Betancourt: .476 AVG (10-for-21) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman

You’ll thank me later …

? Alberto Callaspo: .100 AVG (1-for-10) lifetime vs. Rays starter James Shields

? Joe Mauer: .182 AVG (2-for-11) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Rich Harden

? Albert Pujols: .167 AVG (1-for-6) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Ross Ohlendorf

Leaderboard time!

As mentioned earlier, “warriorclub” is riding high with a 30-game streak. Not far behind is “sunhudson” with a 29-gamer.

In Home Run Beat the Streak news, “kendo1961″ is setting the pace with
an eight-game streak. Eight is currently the season high, so if
“kendo1961″ can press his luck for another day, a sole leader atop the
… leaderboard will emerge.

And on that note, my ill-advised HR BTS pick of the day is: Jose Bautista vs. Ivan Nova and the Yankees!

Do with that as you may.

Or not, your choice.

Top MLB streakers

? Elvis Andrus: 12 games

? Omar Infante: 11 games

? Austin Kearns: 11 games

? Juan Pierre: 11 games

? Vladimir Guerrero: 10 games 

34 Comments

Entering today: 42 game days remaining. Minimum current streak required to win the prizes outright (assuming season ends Oct 3rd)…
(*) Playing for a tie? add 1 to DL and minus 1 from CS & TS
Abbreviations: DL=Active Streak Deadline, CS=Current Streak Needed, TS=Target
BTS Countdown Resets now eliminate you from cash prizes
Top Prize ($3M): CS:15, TS:57, DL:Aug 8th
*Consolation ($10K): CS:2, TS:44, DL:Aug 21st (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/bts/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes
Survivor Countdown {tickets are for 2011 All-Star Game & Homerun Derby}
Top Prize (2 tickets+travel+hotel+$10K): CS:0, TS:37, DL:Aug 28th
*Consolation (2 tickets only): CS:0, TS:30, DL:Sept 4th (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/survivor/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes

“Resets now eliminate you from cash prizes
Expanding on that comment. After tonite’s games, only 41 game days remaining. Need 43 to tie the high mark this year. Well even if an Oct 4th game were played, that would be 42 games left after today, instead of 41. But you need 43 minimum. I can not foresee any chance of an Oct 5th game.

^^ And 1 more final comment. I guess one could argue, “what if both leaders were disqualified, then…” I guess there is always hope no matter how unlikely.

Looks like Dave is saying the leader, George, has more tie breaker hits than GCroke.
Monday
BTS – Starlin Castro (Was 4 for 5 yesterday v. Braves)
HR – Hamilton v. Harden who was with Cubs a few years ago and can be great or terrible. Gives up the long ball alot.
Game in TX and Hamilton is hot – like my chances here.
Survivor – RSox
Wednesday Aug 25 – Rockies in a day game and Tulowitzki has hit in all the day games he has played in this year.

Mig is a solid choice but I’m sticking with Hamilton. He’s 7-for-14 over the last three days and Blackburn is a nightmare. Good luck to all!!

“Looks like Dave is saying the leader, George, has more tie breaker hits than GCroke.”
Don’t know, depends on how you read between the lines. One may read it as: “Though Dick lost the tiebreaker, this is what a good sport the guy is…” Though I doubt Dave was hinting one way or the other & may be prevented from telling us which won the tiebreaker.

Flip flopping between Miguel and Josh. Miguel on the road would get possibly extra bat and hits chen well, or Josh who is hotttt and kills at home. I don’t know. Good luck to all tonight. I think they both get hits.

I’m still going to blog. I was thinking about it and I figured why the hell not and I just read the comments from last night and I still stand by what I said. I want to know how you can even get to 15 yet alone 30 or 40. Anybody care to help me out? 10 long years and not even a 15 game streak and the worst part is half of the ones who blog this year will not be back next year. It always happens like I said. My picks for tonight.
BTS-Ortiz, he has hits in 12 of his last 13 games and they are facing the Mariners at home so it looks like a good pick.
HR BTS-Cabrera
Survivor-Giants, Cain is pitching and look at his numbers at home and you will see why I chose them to win.

From the rules page, I was under the impression that it was whoever gets there first, which would make Dick George the winner. It sounded like the tiebreaker was only if both of the highest streaks ended on the same day. But I could be way off….

– Tiffany
http://redbirdfever.mlblogs.com/

@bronxbmbr: Miguel on the road? As in M.Cabrerra? Not on the road, it’s a home game for them.
@Tiffany: The “first come, first served” rule is for the 57 game top prize, not the consolation prize.

@bronxbmbr both players (Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton) are at home and I’m deciding between them too.
HR: Miguel Cabrera
Survivor: Rangers (I’ve been struggling in survivor lately alternating wins and losses. I’m at 1 and hope to break that pattern tonight.)
BTW it’s 108 in Arlington tonight is that good or bad if I take Josh Hamilton?

Joe Mauer is a pick of the day who’s 2 for 11 against Rich Harden. lol

Actually considerd Damon. But he’s been claimed off waivers by Boston & doesn’t seem to like it. Will his mind be on the game? An average hitter, too risky for me today with that on his mind. Looking for Bobby Abreu (hopefully not a DNP) to move me along tonight.

Then again, not Abreu. Waffling like this makes me nuts!!!
Good luck to the rest of you.

Overthinking this game can kill you. Damon gets 1 AB hit ;)
Lots of 1 AB hits: Cano, Pujols, Holliday, Cabrerra, Butler, Zimmerman, Beltre…. Shaping up to be a great BTS day unless Ichiro/Hamilton go 0-fer

Thanks guys I don’t know why I thought he was on the road anyways he got his hit and I’m now waiting to see if Josh(my pick) comes throught for me or not to get me to a season high of 7. Good luck to the rest of ya still waiting.

Hey guys I’m back and ready to rock, Miggy already moved me along for tonight. Yahhh up to 3.
LaV’s List
Monday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 112 Batters picked overall. 10 games tonight.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Miguel Cabrera 538 21.52(3RD, 3RD & 5TH)(GOOD)
Josh Hamilton 373 14.92(1RST)
Ichiro Suzuki 289 11.56(2ND, 5TH & 5TH)
Albert Pujols 166 6.64(GOOD)
Carl Crawford 109 4.36
Joe Mauer 101 4.04
Martin Prado 76 3.04
Ryan Zimmerman 65 2.6(GOOD)
Robinson Cano 61 2.44(GOOD)

Evan Longoria 61 2.44
No Selection 41 1.64
Johnny Damon 40 1.6(GOOD)
Adrian Beltre 37 1.48(GOOD)

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 6 with a streak of 16 back to zero.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

forcook, 22, pg 1, 15, I. Suzuki
baseballgirlie13, 18, 75, pg 4, J. Hamilton

GL to all
M

Wel Dave, your HR pick o the day just launched a 2-run shot.

and Kendo went with Jose as well to move into 1rst place all by his lonesome @ 9 straight days with a HR. but hot on his heels Eric also had Jose to go to 7 and keep the pressure on. ( not that there’s not enough pressure as is)

Congratulations to Kendo1961 for getting to 9.
I don’t want to be selfish but I need to bend the don’t pick against my team rule…. at least for home runs. I was ready to pick Batista if anyone besides my Yankees were the opponent. Pujols homered but I did not take him. I took Miguel Cabrera and KC has intentionally walked him twice with the 2nd coming after an error on a Damon single. However I also have Miguel on the more important game and he singled in his first AB so I’m at 9.

Wow. Kendo1961 moves on to 9 HR hits!

A tip of my Cub hat to Kendo1961 – 9 HR’s. In my best month this year I had 10 HR’s.
Starlin Castro (no relation to Fidel) singles. I like this kid more and more each day. He has alot of poise for a 20 year old and is super fast too.

What a BTS day. Couple of later games with Mauer, Crawford & Longoria among most picked yet to get a hit, else a vast majority of BTS players move on today with very little resets it appears.
Tough luck for those that picked Jeter with an 0-fer pinch & Pence going 0-3. For me, my game hasn’t started yet.
On the lighter side: Cubs Win, Cubs Win under new manager

Highest No selection on survivor on page 1 with a streak of 9. Back to 0.

NO HITTER ALERT. Could it be, another one, in this, the year of the pitcher? TEX no-hitting MIN, 6 outs to go… check that D.Young grounds out, 5 outs to go.

No-hitter update… 3 outs to go, 3 pitchers used so far.

No-hit broken up on an 0-2 pitch to Mauer, one of Dave’s “you’ll thank me later” selections ;)

Based on what I said above anyone who took Mauer (mainly long streaks) must me having the celebration of a decade. Breaks up the Texas no hitter with 1 out in the 9th. The Rangers 1 hit the Twins. I had the Rangers on survivor.

If the no-hitter took place that would’ve been one each month this season. Wonder if that ever happened before. Still have some time, but August is running out of days.

@vinny1979: “I want to know how you can even get to 15 yet alone 30 or 40. Anybody care to help me out?”
My 2nd year playing. 1st year got a streak of 17. This year high is 20. Next year?
1st year: I simply did what most do. Looked at worse pitchers for the day & opposing hitters. Picked who I felt was best suited to get a hit. Hardly any research.
2nd year: Lots of research. Tried many strategies. End result wasn’t much better than 1st year.
I do think favoring good/great batters with high averages against a poor pitcher is sound. There’s probably 3-5 such matchups a day. Honestly, trick is to not pick the one(s) that fail; that’s where the luck factor comes in. Not much help I know.

I didn’t pick on the top 15, but Omar Infante went 2 for 5 to bring my streak to 7 games!

I didn’t pick from the top 15 either. However, H.Kendrick fit the profile I was trying to describe above: batting well over 400 against Shields at 9 ABs, he went 2 for 3 last night (now over 500 with 12 ABs). But I’d prefer to have higher ABs. For example picking Pujols or Theriot Tuesday with 34 & 27 ABs respectively, each batting over 400 against opposing pitchers.
When I said 3-5 such matchups in my last post, I was focusing on “great” matchups with double-digit ABs. Some research needed. Example. Geoff (last leader) made 2 bad picks IMO within a couple days apart, Hanley & Loney, both with great numbers against the lefty pitchers haven’t seen yet this year. But both were hitting lefties horrible this year. Leader skirted by with Hanley but not with Loney. A little research would have shown that.
What I don’t get are those that pick hitters against pitchers never seen before. That is just blind faith; there’s always better picks. Then again, this game has a high luck factor.

^^^ Some stat error corrections, just for completeness:
Hendrick was 583 with 12 ABs when picked, now 733 at 15 ABs vs Shields. Tuesday: Pujols has 27 ABs vs pitcher & Theriot has 34

“What I don’t get are those that pick hitters against pitchers never seen before. That is just blind faith; there’s always better picks. Then again, this game has a high luck factor.”

I have not found that stat to correlate all that strongly with getting a hit.

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