Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, August 24

480x270_Bautista.jpg

Three incredible things manifested yesterday all at the same time. Let’s
rate them on a scale of 1-100 rated by degree of ohmygoodness.

? Jose Bautista hit his 39th and 40th home runs of the season last night. His previous high for homers was 16.

Ohmygoodness scale: 95

Rationale: While obviously incredibly impressive, there seems to
be at least one guy every year who sidesteps into the bigs from Parts
Unknown and goes gangbusters at the plate.

? Home Run Beat the Streak leader, “kendo1961″, actually picked Bautista
yesterday and now has a nine-game home run streak — one away from tying the
longest streak in HR BTS history.

Ohmygoodness scale: 100

Rationale: Ohmygoodness, this is positively insane. I’m
absolutely baffled trying to come up with a corollary for predicting who
will hit a home run for nine days in a row. This is like George
Costanza playing “Frogger” crossed with Michael Jordan dropping 63
points at the old Boston Garden crossed with Ken Jennings going
gangbusters on “Jeopardy!” crossed with my performance when I ate 67
mini eggrolls for dinner in the summer of 1997 at my summer camp.

Something like that.

? I made Jose Bautista my Pick of the Day for Monday.

Ohmygoodness scale: 85

Rationale: I have never seen Larry David’s box-office blunder,
“Sour Grapes”, but I’m pretty sure the plot goes something like: Cousin A
gives Cousin B some petty cash at a casino. Cousin B uses said petty
cash and wins a mega-bucks jackpot. Cousin A thinks he deserves a cut of
mega-bucks jackpot. Cousin B disagrees.

Now, I’m not saying I deserve a huge cut of “kendo1961″‘s $10,000 if the
streak gets to 11, but, for what it’s worth, my e-mail address is
david.feldman@mlb.com.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Albert Pujols: .593 AVG (16-for-27) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm

? Ryan Theriot: .412 AVG (14-for-34) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Dave Bush

? Andrew McCutchen: .455 AVG (5-for-11) career vs. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright

? Shin-Soo Choo: .364 AVG (4-for-11) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Gio Gonzalez

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Adam Kennedy: .385 AVG (5-for-13) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano

You’ll thank me later …

? Matt Holliday: .071 AVG (1-for-14) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm

? David Wright: .174 AVG (4-for-23) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Josh Johnson

? Paul Konerko: .190 AVG (4-for-21) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie

? Ichiro Suzuki: .190 AVG (4-for-21) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Josh Beckett

? Ryan Zimmerman: .176 AVG (3-for-17) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano

Leaderboard time!

BTS leader “warriorclub” rode Josh Hamilton to a 31-game streak. Yada,
yada, yada. Let’s get to my ill-advised HR BTS Pick of the Day:

Robinson Cano vs. Mark Rzepczynski.

Cano has 13 homers in just 156 at-bats vs. southpaws this year,
Rzepczynski has served up 37 homers over 84 big league innings, and Cano
has gone yard of Rzepczynski before.

Top MLB streakers

? Elvis Andrus: 13 games

? Omar Infante: 12 games

? Vladimir Guerrero: 11 games

? Austin Kearns: 11 games

? Juan Pierre: 11 games 

52 Comments

@Ponyforkeana nice catch. all set/fixed. thanks

@Dave. Geoff not on the all-time leaderboard. FYI

Entering today: 41 game days remaining. Minimum current streak required to win the prizes outright (assuming season ends Oct 3rd)…
(*) Playing for a tie? add 1 to DL and minus 1 from CS & TS
Abbreviations: DL=Active Streak Deadline, CS=Current Streak Needed, TS=Target
BTS Countdown {Resets now eliminate you from cash prizes}
Top Prize ($3M): CS:16, TS:57, DL:Aug 8th
*Consolation ($10K): CS:3, TS:44, DL:Aug 21st (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/bts/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes
Survivor Countdown {tickets are for 2011 All-Star Game & Homerun Derby}
Top Prize (2 tickets+travel+hotel+$10K): CS:0, TS:37, DL:Aug 28th
*Consolation (2 tickets only): CS:0, TS:30, DL:Sept 4th (pending)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/survivor/y2010/index.jsp?content=prizes

Logic would dictate a pick of: Pujols, Theriot, Infante, Mauer, Votto tonight. Logic has gotten me to 12 this season. The MVP guys are hot, hot hot.

Going with:
BTS – Starlin Castro v. Lannan of Nats
HR – Pujols
Survivor – Cardinals

No-brainer today: Pujols most picked undoubtedly
He’s batting 294 vs lefties, 425 this month, 382 last 30 days, 385 last 10 days, & 1-2 against Maholm this year.
What about Maholm? 311 vs righties, horrible ERAs well above 5 at home, this month, last 30 & 10 days.
If any day is crying out, “Pick Pujols”, today is the day. Do you go with him or against & hope for a reset? Question is, will he be pitched around? If he goes down today, I suspect he’ll eliminate a huge percentage of BTS players.

“Logic would dictate a pick of: Pujols, Theriot, Infante, Mauer, Votto tonight. Logic has gotten me to 12 this season.”
Mauer? He’s only faced Lewis twice, once this year @ 0-1. Lewis is a good pitcher.
Votto? Lousy avg against Sanchez, but 1-3 this year. Lefty-Lefty matchups scare me especially vs good pitchers.
I’ll pass on those 2. My fears are probably why I haven’t gotten very far this season ;)

Hey guys and girls. Pony, I appreciate it man. I appreciate the strats that you use and maybe I will get my all time high. Email me also if you want to me so we can discuss this in private as well. Vinny1979@msn.com.

BTS-Hamilton, he is absolutely roping against righties this year at a .406 clip and Pavano was absolutely his last two outings so hoping that continues.

HR BTS-Dunn, He has 6 homers vs Zambrano in his career and I look for that to continue tonight.

Survivor-Dodgers, Lilly has won 4 of his first 5 decisions with the Dodgers and he is facing the Brewers so look for that to continue tonight.

Moment of reflection as the season’s end is nearing & still 3+ hours until 1st pitch.
Only 4 ppl made it to the All-Time Leaderboard this year so far, 2 with 40+ gamers.
Last year 16 made it, 9 with 40+ gamers.
Year of the pitcher? Over-thinking, over-analyzing this year? Is lack of steroid use a player? 3+ hours ’til 1st pitch.

Sticking with my jumpstart pick in Podsednik. Thought about the-riot as well. Looking to extend to 8. Good luck all.

1 hour to 1st pitch. Waffling btwn Albert & Theriot. Here’s how over-thinking damages the brain… Thinking PIT mgmt knows Albert owns Maholm but Holliday is .071, Wainwright pitching means few scoring opportunities. If PIT wants to win, limit Albert’s ABs via pitch selection which translates to walks & stuff down/out off the plate. Lord knows you can’t go inside with an ineffective pitcher. So Albert’s best ABs will be with no outs or no baserunners. Leaning towards Theriot, though batting 34 pts lower than Albert. Still time to decide or go elsewhere…

I just noticed that Dick George’s current streak is 18, and can’t remember; did the blogger critics label him a lucky idiot, as they have everyone else who’s gotten much past 35 or so?
?Professor Pete

Beat the Streak: Albert Pujols (2 for 2) up to 10.
Home Run: Albert Pujols
Survivor: Cardinals

Highest no selection in;
Beat the Streak: No No selections in Top2500. That’s a miracle! Any prizes? lol
Home run: Page 4 with a streak of 3 back to 0.
Survivor: 6 on pages 4-7 with a streak of 7 back to 0.

@bronxbmbr: The only concern I have about Pods is that I never know in advance if he’s playing or Manny is. I’m right on the cusp and a “do not play” is same as BTS elimination for me. Nervous even picking Theriot w/o seeing lineup, but with his high numbers, I can’t imagine LAD not playing him.

pony – Correct on your assessment of Mauer and Votto for Tuesday – They are not logical picks.
Top of the first in DC – Starlin Castro doubles to right field.
This kid is the real deal. Needs a nickname!
I’m looking at the Troy “The Sun God” Tulowtizki for the Rocks day game on Wed.
Good luck to all

Over-analyzing cost me a 1 AB hit — go Theriot (it rymes!). But our HR leader picked Pujols & not sure a good pick given the so-far-way-off-base analysis I posted earlier. And for Holliday being .071 vs Maholm, not any more.

Well Theriot is leading off for the Dodgers and Manny is batting 3rd so Pods is on the bench to start the game.

Ichiro’s game rained out. Look out for doubleheader tomorrow!

“I just noticed that Dick George’s current streak is 18…”
Add another 18 to that and I’d be really impressed!

Hey Cub fans does the drama of Steven Stasburg’s arm woes remind you of a certain ex-Cub whose initials are MP?

@dragbunt: Gotta wait til next year & all get hyped about the possibilities only to have him go on the DL during spring training or a couple starts into the season. Do this for a couple years and, yeah, it’ll remind me.
Oh, regarding Castro’s nickname, hopefully they don’t do what Nomar did (Ramon spelled backwards). Bummer to have a nickname like Nilrats

“Sticking with my jumpstart pick in Podsednik. Thought about the-riot as well. Looking to extend to 8. Good luck all. ”

The jumpstart pick does not enter itself if your streak is over 3.

You need to insert that manually.

@champion88, I know and have him in. Thankx.
Hopefully nanny pulls something early and pods comes in with lots of bats.

There we go Theriot. Last time I picked him vs Bush, Theriot went 5-6 on Apr 25th.

Jeter pickers better hope for a quick hit before he gets pulled for Pena: NYY 9 TOR 1

What timing. Jeter homers, 1st-3rd Leaders move on as do Dick & Geoff.

On the lighter side: Cubs Win, Cubs Win. Is Quade a genius, is it the Nats, or are they just playing loose?

LaV’s List
Tuesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 135 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Albert Pujols 895 35.8(GOOD)(1RST & 5TH)
Miguel Cabrera 270 10.8(GOOD)
Derek Jeter 164 6.56(2ND & 3RD)(GOOD)

Ichiro Suzuki 127 5.08(PPD)
Josh Hamilton 103 4.12(GOOD)(5TH)
Robinson Cano 93 3.72
Omar Infante 65 2.6(GOOD)
Joe Mauer 52 2.08(GOOD)(3RD)

Adrian Gonzalez 47 1.88(5TH)
Placido Polanco 46 1.84(GOOD)
Nick Swisher 35 1.4(GOOD)

Carl Crawford 31 1.24
Ryan Theriot 27 1.08(GOOD)
Andre Ethier 21 0.84(GOOD)
Billy Butler 20 0.8(GOOD)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 14.3% with C. Crawford killing the most hopes and dreams. And 2.5% paused.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

forcook, 23, pg 1, 15, A. Pujols
baseballgirlie13, 19, 72, pg 3, J. Hamilton
wurster7, 10, 1346, pg 65, O. Infante
Jagx, 8 , 1935, pg 81, B. Butler
dalywalker322, 8, 1935, pg 84, I. Suzuki(PPD)
peterkevinperkins, 8, 1935, pg 89, E. Andrus(PICKED 5X IN TOP 2500)
nardberg, 8, 1935, pg89, O. Infante

GL to all
M

Man. Tomorrow is a tough day. If a couple of weak pitchers pitch well or the hitters don’t him them, it will be a bloodbath tomorrow. My guess is everyone will be hitting Pujols tomorrow against Karstens. Karstens has problem with lefty bats but Pujols hits RHP well this month. This is gonna be a tough one.

Robbie Cano just got pulled taking out 93 ppl out of top2500 and out of running for any money.

by bronxbmr: “Hopefully nanny pulls something early and pods comes in with lots of bats.”
Be careful what you wish for. Pods is in the game and will bat, but only 1 AB barring a tie game. Can you survive the nite wth just 1 AB?

@baseballgirlie: Who are you looking @ for tomorrow? We both had the same picks for the last 2 days. It was a close one today though. If it wasn’t for that fastball right down the middle by Pavano, we both could have been reset tonight. Obviously, Majer is out. Maybe righty bats from TX. I figure they’re due to explore soon playing in their park. Dunesing is hittable from right side. Just not from the left side so Hamilton is out.

by btsplayer: “Man. Tomorrow is a tough day…”
Agreed. I’m leaning towards Butler. Will look closer tomorrow after reviewing rotoworld.com; can’t afford picking a player being rested or a rainout. That leaves me just 1 game tomorrow where I’ll see the lineup before 1st pitch – else take my chances.

“Agreed. I’m leaning towards Butler.” I don’t know about him because Mr. Almost Perfect pitched very well in the last game. And Butler has hit like several days in a row without really being smoking hot. Very tough tomorrow. Also looking @ Gonzalez to go against Jurrens. Only problem is I have the feeling only either Gonz or Tulo will get a hit and I will choose the wrong one.

Tulo is/was another consideration of mine too. Rotoworld should post those being rested for the few earlier games before game lockout. Wait & see.

Looks like I’m switching from Pujols for tomorrow. Karstens is scratched tomorrow and rotoworld was just updated with the info.

McCutchen replacing Karstens. Pujols his 2-3 vs him this year. Pujols should be playing since he had day off last Thursday.

I don’t think Karstens’ replacement cannot be that much better. Who do they have left? I am gonna still keep my options open on Pujols but maybe not.

It is about time Pujols give us an end of the season BTS Blowout 0-fer with 3 walks, 1 HBP, and a sac fly. Offically going 0-for-0 in 4 ABs but because sac fly counts as AB in BTS, its a fat zero day. I mean, Pujols have been way too good for BTS this month. It’s scary.

Maybe B. Phillips too or even Rolen? I will have to see how they finish the game. Bumgarner is definitely hittable by righty bats but I am not sure if there is a reliable bat in CIN.

@btsplayers- I am going to go with Starlin Castro tomorrow most likely. He is a 20 year old phenom and he is facing Jason Marquis. Here are his numbers so far. 0-6 with an 11.39 ERA. He hasn’t pitched more then five innings in any game so far this year and he has only gone five one time. Castro hits righties at a .315 clip and he hits .313 during the day. In August he is hitting .344. The only bad numbers he has are that he only hits .286 on the road but he is on a mini four game streak with the last two games also being road games. Anyway, that is most likely my pick. We’ll see come tomorrow if I change my mind. GL to you and everyone else as well. What are you at right now streakwise and who do you have so far for tomorrow?

Oh I forgot to add some more numbers, haha. Marquis is allowing righties to hit .341 against him and he is down right terrible at home. Look at his splits. Anyway, you could probably pick any Cub tomorrow and they will most likely get a hit, haha!!!

@baseballgirlie13: Just FYI. Marquis has moments of great effectiveness. Last Friday he held Phillies to just 4 hits I recall as Polanco went 0-fer, my pick that day. I thought the same as you — come on, it’s just Marquis. But any pitcher on any given day can throw a gem or near-gem. Everyday is a risk regardless who is on the mound or who your batter o’day is.

@@baseballgirlie: I am really not sure @ this point. I have my default pick (Suzuki) in there now but obviously have to be changed. I am thinking of the following and actually might draw one out of a hat:

B. Phillips, C. Gonzalez, S. Castro, Guerrero, Jeter, F. Sanchez, Infante, etc.

I am thinking Phillips but I might bite the bullet on Infante. Everything seems to be on his corner. Day game and RHP who has problem with righty bat but he sure is loooooong due for an 0-fer.

@baseballgirlie:I forgot. I am right at the cusp of no day to spare so I also have to make sure my pick plays today. I am kind of excited but at the same time I am not even 1/3 of the way there. Realistically, I mean if I am barely getting by as it is now, there is no way I am gonna go that much longer.

Now, I am thinking about Jeter. He is due for 5 Abs for sure. Only thing is he might bat 2nd and not lead off which I don’t like but I can’t know before the 1pm.

@pony- it’s true that Marquis could have a good day, but any pitcher could throw a gem on a certain day. Murrow of the Blue Jays isn’t what you would call a stellar pitcher and he threw a one hitter against the Rays and Dallas Braden threw a perfect game and he is also far from an ace pitcher. I’ve seen Marquis throw well this year too but for the most part he has been one of the worst. Thanks for the advice though, I really appreciate it. I also just think Castro is a great player and will come away with at least one hit today and he may get five at bats too.
@btsplayer- that is a long list of people to pick from so I hope you pick the right one. Jeter would be good for the 5 at-bat reason but he just hasn’t been great this year and I never really feel comfortable picking him. Just a thought though. GL today!!

have you not seen Brendan Morrow pitch? The guy is electric.. 12 K’s 9 K’s 17 K’s last 3 starts.. no offence baseballgirlie.. but before you say something about my blue jays get your facts straight!

I agree with both wrightzone and baseballgirlie. I think Morrow has definitely shown that he can be great, especially after his last three starts. But at the same time, when I pick players, he doesn’t scare me nearly as much as someone like Halladay, Oswalt, Sabathia, Jimenez, etc. I wouldn’t have thought he’d throw a one hitter either. I think you both have valid points.

@wrightzone- I’m not saying he isn’t good. I’m saying that anyone not a blue jays fan, would not consider him an ace pitcher. He may come to that but he isn’t even one of the top 20-25 pitchers in baseball I don’t think. Again, I’m not saying he isn’t good, and he has showed moments of brilliance, so that is great for the blue jays and their franchise. He just isn’t someone I would think could one hit the Rays. Although I didn’t think Braden would throw a perfect game against them either.

Today is a day to pick from the B or C list. Pujols is a hexed pick until his next 0-fer has occurred based on what btsplayer said several posts up. Miguel Cabrera along many other players are seeing unfamiliar pitchers. Josh Hamilton is 0 fer 5 against Brian Duensing. And Ichiro is playing in a double header. I’m thinking of Andre Either, Prince Fielder or Alex Rios.

Pujols will be favored today among the BTS world. Will is effort at getting home run #400 have any effect on performance? M.Cabrerra is being walked more & more lately.

Forget Eithier he has no history against Randy Wolf.
Beat the Streak: Prince Fielder
Home run: Albert Pujols
Survivor: Athletics
I’m nervous about beat the streak.

“Highest no selection in;
Beat the Streak: No No selections in Top2500. That’s a miracle! Any prizes? lol”

WOW! That is INCREDIBLE!!!

Especially considering there are normally at least 40+ resets per day on average.

I know Brendan isnt in the top 25 in the league, but when i guy strikes out 35 guys in 3 starts… thats something worth avoiding lol.. and hes been decent all year coming on these past couple months.. its too bad the Blue Jays are in the best division in baseball.. they are HUGELY underrated. Top 4 of 9 teams in the MLB are in the east.. what does everyone think?
1. NYY – if they played in any other division they’d win 120 a year
2. TB – great team.. but if they dont win soon.. they never will
3. Min – not the best team on paper, but play like a great team
4. SD – great starting pitching, not a great closer, no hitting
5. Phil – best team in the NL.. just not showing it
6. Bos – try to beat Boston down in the late innings – best bullpen in the MLB
7. Stl – Pujols Holliday, Carpenter, Wainright, this team should win alot more games
8. Cin – where did this team come from
9. Tor – great pitching, great HR power, need to improve batting averages and their bullpen
10. Tex – great hitting, no pitching.. will get demolished in the first round of the playoffs

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