Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, August 31

480x270_Mauer.gif 

The pause button was pressed on “jpells10″‘s 30-game streak, as his selection, Troy Tulowitzki, was a late scratch.

Yes, Tulo was one of my Picks of the Day. Glad I could help.

Anyway, the BTS countdown is now officially at 34, meaning all those
with 23-game streaks or better are still alive in this crazy little game
called love.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Joe Mauer: .450 AVG (9-for-20) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Armando Galarraga

? Luke Scott: .444 AVG (8-for-18) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Josh Beckett

? Shin-Soo Choo: .438 AVG (7-for-16) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Edwin Jackson

? Brandon Phillips: .412 AVG (7-for-17) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo

? Scott Rolen: .750 AVG (6-for-8) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo

? Andre Ethier: .500 AVG (5-for-10) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Adam Lind: .412 AVG (7-for-17) lifetime vs. Rays starter Jeff Niemann

You’ll thank me later …

? Demon Young: .105 AVG (2-for-19) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Armando Galarraga

? Hunter Pence: .133 AVG (2-for-15) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter

? Carl Crawford: .182 AVG (2-for-11) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero

Leaderboard time!

“bretzky26″ is pulling a New Kids on the Block and hanging tough with a 29-game streak after Marlon Byrd hit safely.

Yeah, we’ve reached the point in the season where I’m going NKOTB on you. That’s just the way it works sometimes.

Top MLB streakers

? Miguel Cabrera: 12 games

? Paul Konerko: 11 games

? Ryan Theriot: 11 games

? Ryan Raburn: 10 games

? Troy Tulowitzki: 10 games 

42 Comments

Tuesday
BTS – Starlin Castro
HR – Wind blowing toward LF at Wrigley and Karens on the mound for Bucs = Aramis Ramirez (Soriano looks good too)
Survivor – Cubs over Bucs – Dempster has been hot.
Dave picks today – Be careful – Phillips is hurt, Gallardo of Brewers is capable of dominating. Also, Jackson of ChiSox has been hot lately v. Shin Soo Choo, not so sure here.

hey baseballgirlie, a nice run you had. I finished off @ 22 with Ichiro finishing me off. I hope you stay around for the Sept. contest if there is one. Your picks definitely helped me get few more days out of my streak.

Had it with HR BTS?
Nice south wind blowing at Wrigley Field. Pick you favorite right hand hitter of Cubs or Bucs and see what happens.

CHC for Survivor? I like that. Add to that, the wind blowing out, a slight edge to CHC vs PIT I’m thinking. Also, Evan Meek not in the game, no flame thrower to worry about
CIN Phillips out of lineup, pinch hitting possibility. Bruce late scratch. MIL over CIN may be a good pick today ’cause about 1/2 their power is out of the lineup.

Some others out of lineups today: Tulo, J.Upton, Y.Escobar, Overbay, Pagan (day-to-day), Manny, Uggla
Tomorrow: Josh Hamilton – knee injection later tonite

I have nothing to lose so I’m going with three Cub picks:
Beat my streak 17: Aramis Ramirez
Home run:Alfonso Soriano
Survivor: Cubs

Snafu, brain farts, whoops. Two 23-gamers, right on edge of $3M run, pick Phillips/Bruce (1 each). If they don’t come into pinch hit & hit, those 2 are mathematically eliminated barring a Oct 4th game.

lavolpe – Who do you like in Survivor for Wed?
How about TX?
Remember game closes early on Wed.
Manny not in lineup for ChiSox on Wed.
Pierre leads off the game with his patented line single to LF and I took Starlin Castro.

5 Game streak gets you into top2500.
LaV’s List
Tuesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 176 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Josh Hamilton 240 9.6
Joe Mauer 222 8.88(1rst & 3rd)
Adrian Beltre 113 4.52(5th)
Miguel Cabrera 108 4.32
Hanley Ramirez 95 3.8
Robinson Cano 85 3.4
Shin-Soo Choo 72 2.88
Ichiro Suzuki 71 2.84(4th & 5th)
Joey Votto 71 2.84
Juan Pierre 66 2.64
Albert Pujols 64 2.56
Carlos Gonzalez 52 2.08
No Selection 48 1.92
Ryan Braun 31 1.24(2nd)
Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 3 with a streak of 19 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 17.4% with Prince Albert killing the most hopes and dreams. And 6.2% paused.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

goober85, 14, pg 9, 192, J. Hamilton
whbirdman9, 13, pg 14, 252, J. Mauer
00LIber, 10, pg 30, 695, J. Hamilton
bravesfanforlife88, 9, pg 48, 1020, S. Castro(picked 19X in top2500)
kevmaan, 7, pg 74, 1738, V. Martinez(picked 23X in top2500)
backrubs, 5, 2480, M. Young(picked 30X in top2500)

GL to all
M

@dragbunt. Maybe want to ask some else, I chose MIL tonite :). Anyway, I’m favoring the Twins at the moment. TEX is out of question for me, no Hamilton, odds drop dramatically IMO. Bullington shut down NYY couple weeks ago. Hunter’s ERA is not overly impressive both teams have no real history vs opp’s pitchers.

“Look at Infante, 341 BA but only 360 PA. With 32 games remaining, he’d need 4.4 PA per game or (4 PA per game & 14 of those games 5 PA, playing all remaining games). Unlikely.”

I would say it is actually pretty LIKELY.

I mean, as a leadoff hitter, he is pretty much GUARANTEED to pick up at least 4 PA per game.

First off he has 365 PA’s already, not 360.

Secondly, if you look back at his last 31 games played, he picked up 143 PA’s.

If you add that to the 365 PA’s he already has, you get a total of 508 PA’s.

So you have room for 1 day off and 6 extra PA’s worth of error.

Champ88: He had 360 before last nite when I posted & got 5 last nite. Will he play every remaining game, if not add 1 more 5 PA game for each one he misses. His 5 PA will probably come at away games unless ATL crushes @ some home games. We’ll see. If he keeps up his AVG & gets the 502 PAs, batting title is his most likely.

Oops, add 5 more 5 PA games for each game he misses. Need to make up that “guaranteed” 4 PA.

HOT!
Starlin Castro drops a single into CF in the bottom of the 1st.

@champ88: My math is still off isn’t it? Miss 1 4-PA game, need 4 xtra 5-PA games to make it up. Anyway, as you can see, just missing 1 game moves the ratio closer to 50% 5-PAs & 4-PAs. 5-PAs @ home is tough w/1 less inning to play if winning. Miss 2 or more games and its all but over without a few xtra inning games. Injury?, goodbye.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Well, the way to look at is this:

If he is hitting well, there is no way the Braves sit him, being this close in a divisional race.

Even if the Braves clinch the division a week early, if he is still within a close chance of the batting title, there is no way Cox would sit him.

If he is hitting poorly, his average will fall enough that he may not be the leader anymore anyway, and so they can afford to rest him more then.

@dragbunt: How about the Cubbies? Ugh. What changed my mind to go with another team is Cubs history this year when scoring a ton of runs the night before — little to no runs the next day.

“8-3 Nats My sorry survivor pattern over the last 8 days.
WLWLWLWL. Can anyone win even 4 straight these days? That game is impossible and getting to 10 seems very hard. 37? Are you kidding me no one is getting close!”

That happened during a very favorable 6-8 week environment a couple years ago.

You think 36 is impressive?

Try 28+ on the entire 1st page!

The guy that made it to 36 was different from the others though, so I am glad he won.

EVERY freaking team this guy picked was winning 6-0 in the 3rd inning.

It was insane how much run support he got.

I piled together a 17-game winning streak in that environment.

The leader and I were both eliminated when Joe Nathan blew a save in the 9th inning, but wholly because of a fielding error to start the inning.

The Twins lost in extra innings to the Mariners.

Cubs losing 5-0 to the Pirates and Karstens. What isn’t Dempster supposed to be good? This score is the opposite that I expected to see.

@yanksgiantsdevils33: Remember when past leader went down with Teixeira 0-1? Well happened again, sort of, with a $3M potential. TB is being hammered & also 2-hitter, manager pulls out starting lineup in 6th, Longoria 0-1 & 1 BB. jcee5 out of the race.

@champion_88 That happened during a very favorable 6-8 week environment a couple years ago.

You think 36 is impressive?
Try 28+ on the entire 1st page!
The guy that made it to 36 was different from the others though, so I am glad he won.
EVERY freaking team this guy picked was winning 6-0 in the 3rd inning.
It was insane how much run support he got.
I piled together a 17-game winning streak in that environment.

I sure wish there was such a period this year. I got to 6, lost 1 and then got 9 straight.
Now look at the preview below and then the actual unfolding of that game.

From the Pirates Cubs preview:
In what appears to be a decided pitching mismatch, red-hot Chicago Cubs starter Ryan Dempster will try to earn a career-high fifth straight victory and complete a near-perfect August while the Pirates’ Jeff Karstens will try to avoid matching the longest skid in the majors this season.
—————————-
Every sign pointed to the Cubs and and the results are completely inverse. I hate baseball in terms of results of these 3 games this season!
BTW this too many posts is bull too. I submit 2 different posts and the 2nd says too many comments submitted.

“No offense to any of my bloggers, cause I really could care less about the NL,(Rangers and Yanks for me) but StL will smarten up shortly and make a run. And correct me if I’m wrong but don’t StL and Fla have a game to make up? I’m pretty sure I read somewhere StL has no more days off so would that not mean an oct 4th game?”

Which would increase odds of having an October 5th game!

@dragbunt: Regarding who I like tomorrow for Survivor? If CIN wins today, I’m done playing Survivor this year. Not totally disappointed, I never got a streak greater than 6 in that game and had weeks of no picks. Just never gave it much effort. Where’s 2012 All Star game? Somewhere near water? If so, maybe I’ll try harder next year :)

My only “fun” from here until the end of season consists of 2 things:
1) Watching Cardinals choke their way out of playoff contention
2) Watching the last $3M potentials drop from the leaderboard. Cruel, but true.

“I have nothing to lose so I’m going with three Cub picks:
Beat my streak 17: Aramis Ramirez
Home run:Alfonso Soriano
Survivor: Cubs”

A 17-game hitting streak is hardly nothing to lose!

“Snafu, brain farts, whoops. Two 23-gamers, right on edge of $3M run, pick Phillips/Bruce (1 each). If they don’t come into pinch hit & hit, those 2 are mathematically eliminated barring a Oct 4th game.”

Wasn’t Bruce a late scratch?

So that is hardly a snafu on that user’s part!

@lavolpe I don’t wish anyone ill but with the disaster that I’ve been having it’s hard not to root for failure. I’m downgraded to playing for mostly pride but tonight’s 0 fer from Armas Ramirez officially eliminates me from the 35 streak prize.

@champ88. It was accoding to rotoworld. But when I pulled up GameDay 20mins before start, he wasn’t on the lineup. Tell you, if were on the edge of $3M, I’d be checking the lineup as soon as it is posted, no matter where I was. I consider the Phillips & Bruce picks to be a “get what you deserve” result. Different if it was a later game & no chance to see a lineup and unaware of resources like rotoworld.
@yanks: 35 streak prize? It’s $10K or better for me :) else I just don’t care. I root for failure every day and they are always at the top of the leaderboard.

@champion_88 My 17 game hitting streak is not active, it’s my longest of the season but my current streak is 2 and practily 0 with another 0 fer looming.

Armas Ramirez is out of the game. I’m starting September with 3 0s. # the Cubs! NEVER AGAIN!

Well it has been a pleasant night afterall: Survivor streak ends for good this year; not so pleasant. But at least 4 and maybe more $3M potentials fall out of the race and most importantly, the Cards choke yet again. 7 Games out of division, and if Philly wins, 4 out of wildcard. Even if Philly doesn’t win and COL does, 3 teams ahead of Cards in Wild Card chase. This bitter old Cubs fan still gets a little enjoyment — misery loves company you know!

“@dragbunt: Regarding who I like tomorrow for Survivor? If CIN wins today, I’m done playing Survivor this year. Not totally disappointed, I never got a streak greater than 6 in that game and had weeks of no picks. Just never gave it much effort. Where’s 2012 All Star game? Somewhere near water? If so, maybe I’ll try harder next year :)”

There’s still the prize to put together the longest streak of the year in Survivor, which is 29 right now.

You can still play for that.

The 2012 All-Star game is VERY FAR from any bodies of water, since it is in Kansas City!

“@lavolpe I don’t wish anyone ill but with the disaster that I’ve been having it’s hard not to root for failure. I’m downgraded to playing for mostly pride but tonight’s 0 fer from Armas Ramirez officially eliminates me from the 35 streak prize.”

There’s still the 30-game prize to go after!

Now the loser Cubs start hitting after those BUMS took my beat the streak pick out, the only non-pitcher removed from the Cubs in the game. My HR pick of course has 2 singles.

“@champ88. It was accoding to rotoworld. But when I pulled up GameDay 20mins before start, he wasn’t on the lineup. Tell you, if were on the edge of $3M, I’d be checking the lineup as soon as it is posted, no matter where I was. I consider the Phillips & Bruce picks to be a “get what you deserve” result. Different if it was a later game & no chance to see a lineup and unaware of resources like rotoworld.”

Yeah, I agree about them deserving it, but I had never heard of rotoworld until reading this blog, so that is possible.

“Now the loser Cubs start hitting after those BUMS took my beat the streak pick out, the only non-pitcher removed from the Cubs in the game. My HR pick of course has 2 singles.”

If the Cubs’ bullpen didn’t give up in the middle of the game, it would only be 8-7 now and Ramirez definitely wouldn’t have been pinch-hit before.

Who was your HR pick?

He might get up again.

@champ88: Regarding the consolation prize in Survivor. If I read it correctly, you get a pair of tickets to ASG & HR derby. I’d imagine you’d have to pay a gift tax of some sort since they’re valued at $3K. Then you also gotta pay out of your own pocket, getting to Arizona & back, and a hotel for a couple nights. Now depending where you live, transportation may not be cheap. Hotels will probably be very expensive even if reserved tomorrow. So bottom line, you gotta really want to go to fork out that kinda cash to see an exhibition game or live nearby. Oh, I doubt MLB will mail you the tickets, you probably need to pick them up at the ballpark. So selling them on EBay is out of the question. I’ll pass on that prize, thank you.

2012 ASG in KC? That’s only a few hours drive for me. I’d play for that prize.

@dragbunt: For Survivor tomorrow, consider ATL. Look at opposing batting AVG against each pitcher. ATL looks very good on paper.

^^^^^^^^^^^
I mean look at the BA for each ATL player

@btsplayer- I will definitely stay around for the remainder of the season, but with my streak only at 3 I can only hope for the 30-game streak in September. Seeing as how my longest in four years is 23 I do not think it will happen but I will try until I lose. I’ll be back next year for sure. GL to you in September.

If you’re thinking about a white sock toady here’s a little scouting on carasco per Ohio.com:
“Carrasco posted a 10-6 record and 3.65 ERA in Triple-A. In 1501/3 innings, he has given up 139 hits, 45 walks and struck out 133, last September in 5 starts he posted am 0-4 record with an 8.85Era.”

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