Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, September 2

Roberts480BTS.jpg

Does anyone actually want to win this thing?

One day after flirting with him and putting on the Feldman full-court
press, “jpells10″ rewards me by selecting Albert Pujols who proceeds to
0-fer and zaps a 31-game streak.

The conch now belongs to “bretzky26″. Do with it as you may.

Time for Thursday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Brian Roberts: .467 AVG (7-for-15)lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka

? Matt Diaz: .533 AVG (16-for-30) lifetime vs. Mets starter Johan Santana

? Joe Mauer: .357 AVG (15-for-42) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Jason Kubel: .387 AVG (12-for-31) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

You’ll thank me later …

? Nick Markakis: .133 AVG (2-for-15) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka

? Martin Prado: .167 AVG (3-for-18) lifetime vs. Mets starter Johan Santana

? David Wright: .204 AVG (10-for-49) lifetime vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson

Leaderboard time!

I don’t even know what to do here anymore.

Top MLB streakers

? Paul Konerko: 13 games

? Michael Bourn: 11 games

? Nick Markakis: 10 games

? A.J. Pierzynski: 10 games

Six players tied with nine-game streaks.                              

33 Comments

Hey all.
Looking at jeter this morning and hoping he hits Braden before a right handed reliever comes in. Nice numbers vs Lhp but cr@p vs Rhp. GL all. Top2500 post will be up about 2est when I take lunch.
M

Braden has been pitching brillantly this month while Jeter has been the complete opposite. It could be the reversal of the fortune today though. You can’t expect both trend to continue.

Jeter singled in first atbat so I’m happy. Still alive and Onto tommorow.

Well anyone who took Swisher that is at 12+ just got ripped. Swisher is out of the game after grounding out. Highest no selection is a streak of 22 on the bottom of page 1.
Of the 7 who are at 25+, 2 took Joe Mauer and 1 have each of the following; Jhonny Peralta (leader at 31) ,Ichiro Suzuki, Marco Scutaro, Omar Infante and Miguel Cabrera.
4 others are at 24 and need a game on Oct 4th (2 more with Mauer another with Cabrera and 1 has Carlos Gonzalez.

LaV’s List
Thursday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 93 Batters picked overall. Only 6 games today.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Carlos Gonzalez 380 15.2
Miguel Cabrera 277 11.08(4TH)
Adrian Beltre 262 10.48
Ichiro Suzuki 241 9.64(4TH)
Joe Mauer 226 9.04(2ND & 3RD)
Robinson Cano 103 4.12
No Selection 99 3.96
Derek Jeter 99 3.96
Marco Scutaro 77 3.08(4TH)
J.D. Drew 66 2.64
Denard Span 54 2.16
Mark Teixeira 53 2.12
Omar Infante 47 1.88(4TH)
Victor Martinez 45 1.8
Jhonny Peralta 6 0.24(1RST)

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 1 with a streak of 22 back to zero. Again WTF??
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 40.5% with Joey votto killing the most hopes and dreams. And 20.7% paused with J Hamilton not playing last night.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

00LIber, 12, pg 13, 301, D. Jeter(GOOD)
bravesfanforlife88, 11, pg 23, 462, A. Beltre
kevmaan, 9, pg 31, 746, M. Cabrera
backrubs, 6, pg 78, 1494, J. Mauer
tomfootball17, 5, pg 93, 2201, M. Scutaro
whbirdman9, 14, RESET BY M. Cabrera
GL to all
M

@00Liber. Good job. Glad you didn’t go with Cano/Swisher/Gardner, huh?

Well, the leader is going outside the box a bit. Peralta hasn’t seen S.Baker this year & last year w/CLE, Peralta was hitting 267 vs Baker. Baker is hitting around 260 in all significant stats this year & past 30 days. His last two games, however, were very good. Scott Baker on the other hand has given up 5-8 hits in each of his last 4 games, about 1 per innning pitched overall. I think this is more of a gut pick than anything else. The leader is too far back for any of us to sweat about it, at the moment.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^6
Meant: Peralta is hitting around 260 in all significant stats this year & past 30 days. Leader only needs 1-4 though.

LaV, Thank You. I briefly thought about Cano, but the 1-8 (career numbers vs Braden) immediately made me look past him. The only other Yank that I thought about was Tex, and he was good today too. So now im onto tommorrow.
@ALL, After tommorrow’s post, I will NOT be posting top2500 untill Monday the 13th, as I am going to be on holidays. (lookout Orlando, here I come) I will still be playing and reading posts.

If LaV wants he could take the posting back over for the next week.??

@00Liber. Don’t count on me to post the Top2500 for 2 reasons: 1) not into that much now that my season is over & 2) the only people I care about are on the 1st page. When the last $3M runner trips, I’m done blogging too. Sorry.
Oh, your other pick consideration got a hit too: Tulo. You’re on a roll, keep it going and try to avoid those last AB chances.

Another awful loss on survivor. This time I thought I had picked the Yankees and instead I had the Braves who lost to the Mets with Hudson on the mound. I’ve had it with SURVIVOR! I’m never going to win 2 in a row anymore let alone 10 or 20. That game is CURSED!
To make thing even worse Miguel Cabrera is 0 fer for the 2nd straight day. Survivor is plagued by upsets and beat the streak is getting many unpredictable 0 fers.

“Anxious time for the leader…”
You should know :)

Anxious time for the leader…

Peralta currently 0-2

What the heck? Miguel Cabrera gone from the game? as an O fer. This is twice in 3 days I’ve been somewhat screwed with my player getting taken out early. I could not predict he’d be 0 for 3 two straight days and this time he doesn’t stay in the whole time. Well 3 chances beat 1 but it’s still my first 0 fer Miguel Cabrera pick of the season and it comes 5 days after my first 0 fer Ichiro Suzuki pick. The longest streak I can reach is nowow 31.

If I was upset imaging what zero4three (@25) and patq77(@24, needed Oct 4 game) are, now that they’re eliminated with this stunt.

@yanks: Cabrerra injured. Was he playing thru the injury? How many front-runners will pick him tomorrow, unaware?

@lav

I was being sarcastic lol. I’ve had a good run, I can’t complain. The only part that I’m kicking myself about is the fact that I was going back and forth between Scutaro and Peralta all of last night. O well…

It is what it is….

@bretzky26. I know. You still have 1 more AB. I’m sure you had a few of those that came thru during this streak

@@bretzky26: I just texted Peralta. He said he will get a hit just for you. He didn’t know your streak was riding on him. He feels honored but he said don’t bother picking him next time. So here is 32 for you tomorrow.

@bretzky26: You owe me a drink. I had to pull strings for you.

O my lol…talk about fortune

$3M runners for today are done. One more dropped from the race
@bretzky26: Last AB homer, off the reliever, no less. Luck carries you one more day.

“@ALL, After tommorrow’s post, I will NOT be posting top2500 untill Monday the 13th, as I am going to be on holidays. (lookout Orlando, here I come) I will still be playing and reading posts.

If LaV wants he could take the posting back over for the next week.??”

Most hotels have a high-speed wireless connection nowadays.

Couldn’t you post it from the room when you get back from the afternoon’s activities to get ready for dinner?

If not, wasn’t there supposed to be 2 people taking over for Lav?

The other could take over for the next 10 days?

“@00Liber. Don’t count on me to post the Top2500 for 2 reasons: 1) not into that much now that my season is over & 2) the only people I care about are on the 1st page. When the last $3M runner trips, I’m done blogging too. Sorry.
Oh, your other pick consideration got a hit too: Tulo. You’re on a roll, keep it going and try to avoid those last AB chances.”

I thought you would care about the $10 K prize, since everyone seemed to hate when george took the lead earlier in the year and we still do not know which of the 2 leaders is actually winning right now???

“$3M runners for today are done. One more dropped from the race

@bretzky26: Last AB homer, off the reliever, no less. Luck carries you one more day.”

Not entirely lucky.

He just got another hit in the 11th inning, so 2 for 5 is not really a fluke.

damn, the people who had Miguel Cabrera must be fuming now, as the game has gone into the 12th inning now!

Also, as an off-topic question for Dave, why did MLB get rid of the “stadium feature” from 2008-2009???

I LOVED the ability to “sit” in a simulated ballpark and chat in real-time with other fans watching the game!

That is how I watched that 22-inning game between the Rockies and Padres!

@champ88. Replies to some of your posts
1) “I thought you would care about the $10 K prize, since everyone seemed to hate when george took the lead earlier in the year”
^^ 10K is nearly guaranteed; will be won every year. I’d like it to be me, but otherwise I don’t care who wins it. The $3M is another story; it is not guaranteed & if I don’t win it I’d like to see no one win it — contrary to others that blog
2) Regarding Peralta’s hits… “Not entirely lucky.”
Yes, lucky. Picked Peralta against Baker not the pen. Baker removed after 2 or 3 innings. Peralta didn’t get a hit until 8th off of 3rd reliever. If relying on a hit in extras, then that is luck. But I’ve stated from day one, this game is one of luck and not skill and still stand by that statement.
3) 00Liber could run the Top2500 program if he brought a laptop with him. Probably not on his list of priorities; not would it be on mine while on vacation.

2) Well there are other reasons to pick hitters than just the starting pitcher.

Especially since Baker had been pitching well of late before that start.

3) If it really does only take 15 minutes to do, I cannot see why he could not do it while the others are getting dressed for dinner.

You always have that 30 minute dead time around 600 PM.

We might not get the day games, but at least it would be most of them.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Also, to add to my above statement about it not being a game of luck, notice how you put together a nice long streak, once you began researching your picks more thoroughly.

Yes. It improved my chances, but it was all luck anyway. I had about 50/50 1-hit/multi-hit games, a couple last ABs, and 2 games that pitchers were switched on me. If a streak relies on one lucky day to continue, then the entire streak is based on luck. Again, my opinion.

^^^^^^^^^

If it improves your chances, then that proves that skill is one component of the game.

You don’t need 2 hits for the pick to be a good one.

So if a 57-game streak had 56 skill picks and 1 luck pick, then that proves that the streak was 100% luck???

“So if a 57-game streak had 56 skill picks and 1 luck pick, then that proves that the streak was 100% luck???”
Of course, without that lucky day/pick, what would your streak be at? Not 57. BTW, I consider a skill pick where a hit came off starter, anything else is luck, period. Picking hitters against batters they’ve never seen is faith not skill. Picking a 250ish batter that gets hit of relief pitcher, luck not skill. Picking a hitter just because he is hot, faith not skill.
Note, I did not say pickers couldn’t be skillful. I am saying luck rules this game, not skill. Skill may get you $10K but luck will get you $3M.

Let’s rephrase that last statement. Re-read my definition of a skill pick above if needed…
Luck will get you $10k. Luck will get you $3M.
Skill will help improve your chances.
Without luck, you won’t win any money.
Without skill? I’d say one can still win $10K. If I were to take the time and go back to all of Dave’s top picks, I’d probably find less than 10 days where all the picks on a given day went 0-fer. Someone using just that info and get’s lucky enough to avoid 0-fers between those 10 days, could get a very large streak and maybe enough to win $10K? So, I think I made my point. Whether you and anyone else buys it or not, is up to you.

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