Beat the Streak Report: Labor Day Weekend

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It looks like “breztky26″ wants to dance.

Our fearless leader upped his streak to a stellar 32 games with a bold
Jhonny Peralta selection, and heads into the holiday weekend ready to
make some noise.

And here’s the obligatory holiday weekend reminder:

It’s a holiday weekend! Make sure to have all your picks through Monday selected ahead of time so you don’t forget.

Glad I’m here.

Oh, hello there …

Friday

? Matt Kemp: .425 AVG (17-for-40) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito

? Jorge Posada: .462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow

? Paul Konerko: 13-game hitting streak.

Saturday

? Carlos Gonzalez: .615 AVG (8-for-13) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland

? Andre Ethier: .514 AVG (18-for-35) lifetime vs. Giants starter Matt Cain

? Johnny Damon: .500 AVG (11-for-22) lifetime vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen

Sunday

? Joey Votto: .412 AVG (7-for-17) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter

? Albert Pujols: .364 AVG (4-for-11) lifetime vs. Reds starter Homer Bailey

? David Ortiz: .354 AVG (17-for-48) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle

Monday

? Hanley Ramirez: .400 AVG (10-for-25) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Oswalt

? Chase Utley: .391 AVG (9-for-23) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez

? Ichiro Suzuki: .368 AVG (7-for-19) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Brett Anderson

Feeling kinda spicy?

Friday

? Yuniesky Betancourt: .458 AVG (11-for-24) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman

Saturday

? Luke Scott: .379 AVG (11-for-29) lifetime vs. Rays starter James Shields

Sunday

? Jhonny Peralta: .571 AVG (8-for-14) lifetime vs. Royals starter Kyle Davies

Monday

? Jeff Keppinger: .462 AVG (12-for-26) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster

You’ll thank me later …

Friday

? Nick Markakis: .129 AVG (4-for-31) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza

? Victor Martinez: .188 AVG (3-for-16) lifetime vs. White Sox starter John Danks

Saturday

? Martin Prado: .190 AVG (4-for-21) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Josh Johnson

? Evan Longoria: .176 AVG (3-for-17) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie

Sunday

? Joe Mauer: .059 AVG (1-for-17) lifetime vs. Rangers starter C.J. Wilson

? Jayson Werth: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Randy Wolf

Monday

? Billy Butler: .000 AVG (0-for-7) lifetime vs. Twins starter Brian Duensing

? Adrian Beltre: .231 AVG (3-for-13) lifetime vs. Rays starter Jeff Niemann

Leaderboard time!

“pops50″, welcome to the BTS Report. Our second-place streaker is
rocking a 30-gamer after Joe Mauer’s fruitful night at the yard.

Top MLB streakers

? Paul Konerko: 13 games

? Michael Bourn: 11 games

? Nick Markakis: 11 games

? Carlos Gonzalez: 10 games

? Jhonny Peralta: 10 games

? A.J. Pierzynski: 10 games

? Will Rhymes: 10 games 

88 Comments

Possible did-not-play (DNP) per rotoworld, for Friday
Jeter, Swisher, Mi.Cabrerra, Ad.Jones, Kubel, C.Patterson, O.Hudson
So how many of the 6 leaders still tracking $3M do you think will be left after Monday night? My guess is half, others?

“So how many of the 6 leaders still tracking $3M do you think will be left after Monday night? My guess is half, others?”

4 game days, I would be surprised if any of them make it.

Me I’m going with Cano. I know Morrows pitched pretty lights out the last month or so but look at his numbers at Yankee stadium.

“4 game days, I would be surprised if any of them make it.”
Wow, I thought I was the pessimist! Gotta think that most are 1st timers this high & fear will lead them towards the most “reliable” hitters in their minds (Ichiro, Cano, etc). Unless this weekend ends up like last weekend, I think we’ll still have a few.

I always seem to find out stuff late it seems. Just got home about 40 minutes ago from a pre employment screening for a new job and just saw about Miggy. Was too late to switch as I just read the blog. Oh well.
BTS-Miggy
HR BTS-Bautista, has hit a lot of homers against the Yanks this year and the Stadium is a boom box during the day.
Survivor-Tampa, My Survivor streak is still going so taking it one day at a time. Like Tampa today and it may be a good pick against Millwood.
Good luck to all today.

BTS – Mr.Japan – Ichiro
HR – Ryan Howad – Went deep last night and ESPN guy this AM said he is usually hot in Sept, Phils at home(no rain from hurricane please) and Capuano is on hill for Brew Crew.
Survivor – NYY
Way out question of the day: If you had to pick a team to field with players that all had the same last name, what last name would you use (current players only).

Here’s my quick assessment of the leaders’ picks. Granted my opinion is mine alone & not all will agree.
Eckstien vs. Cook (high risk? 0-3 this year, Ecks struggling since coming off DL)
Mi.Cabrerra — probably not playing
C.Gonzalez vs Luebke (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
R.Cano vs Morrow (lower risk, Cano is .300 this year vs Morrow, though 0-5 one game)
R.Zimmerman vs Duke (very low risk, Zimm is .455 with 11 ABs this year)

J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move. Josh injured, may DH or not play)

LaV’s List
Friday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 188 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Josh Hamilton 305 12.2(4TH)
Evan Longoria 153 6.12
Ichiro Suzuki 132 5.28
Carlos Gonzalez 111 4.44(3RD)
Adrian Gonzalez 105 4.2
Robinson Cano 104 4.16(4TH)
No Selection 98 3.92
Ryan Zimmerman 89 3.56(4TH)
Joe Mauer 73 2.92
Hanley Ramirez 73 2.92
Albert Pujols 64 2.56
Carl Crawford 56 2.24
Miguel Cabrera 55 2.2(2ND)
David Eckstein 4 0.16(1RST)

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 5 with a streak of 16 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 27% with Miggy killing the most hopes and dreams. And 1.7% paused.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick

00LIber, 13, pg 11, 214, R. Cano
bravesfanforlife88, 12, pg 17, 330, E. Longoria
backrubs, 7, pg 55, 1087, H. Ramirez
darwi, 5, pg 100+, 2426, A. Pujols
champion_88, 5, pg 100+, 2426, F. Sanchez(PICKED 4X IN TOP2500)
dragbunt104, 5, pg 100+, 2426, I. Suzuki
JagX, 5, pg 100+, 2426, J. Hamilton
kevmaan, 9 RESET BY M. Cabrera
GL to all
M

Revised. Where did I get that Zimmerman/Duke info from?
Eckstien vs. Cook (high risk? 0-3 this year, Ecks struggling since coming off DL)
Mi.Cabrerra — probably not playing
C.Gonzalez vs Luebke (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move. Josh injured, may DH or not play)
R.Cano vs Morrow (lower risk, Cano is .300 this year vs Morrow, though 0-5 one game)
R.Zimmerman vs Duke (average risk, Zimm is .333 this year vs Duke)

“BTS – Mr.Japan – Ichiro
HR – Ryan Howad – Went deep last night and ESPN guy this AM said he is usually hot in Sept, Phils at home(no rain from hurricane please) and Capuano is on hill for Brew Crew.
Survivor – NYY
Way out question of the day: If you had to pick a team to field with players that all had the same last name, what last name would you use (current players only).”

Philly isn’t getting anything from the dying Earl.

As for your question, I do not think any name would have enough players to field a team.

I don’t think there’s enough players with same last name either. But if none of your team could have a player w/o another player having a same last name, then I’d go with Cabrerra (Miguel, Asdrubal), Suzuki (both of ‘em), Gonzalez (Adrian, Carlos), Ramirez (Alexi, Aramis, Hanley). No pitchers in that list. For backups, Melky C., Alex G., Manny R. and if pitchers required: Santana (both of them) & add Cubs Santana as another to the players list.

LOL, Cubs’ Santana…. Senior moment, excuse me.

Well my run could be over. Cano due up 4th in bottom of 8 with yanks up 4. If so, tWas a decent run, gotta go finish packing then we outta here.
Like I said the other day I’m still gonna play and read post but I’m not taking the laptop with me. If I have time around the daily lock I’ll use a comp at the hotel but no promises. The wife and boy probably wouldn’t be too happy with me if I was sitting on computer while on holidays. I do that enough at home.

Good luck to all still playing (for money or for pride) and we’ll talk at y’all later. I might make the odd post here and there.

M

Beat the Streak: Carl Crawford
Home run fail: Nick Swisher another mental mistake even though it’s only Home run Beat the streak.
Survivor: Rays
I’m getting fed up in both games (beat the streak and survivor) at the rapid reset rate. If I had not put in picks for the next 9 days I’d quit on the next reset that occurs.

Cano: 0 for 4

@00Liber. Man, yesterday I told you to avoid those last AB chances. Seriously, tough luck today, 10 pitch AB too. You’re the last blogger group member that had a shot at Dick/Geoff.
Can Earl cause Oct 4th games? We’ll see. BOS/CWS ppd & most likely doubleheader tomorrow or Sunday.

Stand corrected. 1 more has a shot at a tie if Longoria hits tonight.

Surprised to see one of the remaining contenders went with Cano. Given how Morrow has been pitching, there were far better choices today. This is why batter v. pitcher stats. are pretty much useless. I am sure that .300 avg. trapped a lot of people into picking him today. One thing for sure is if a key situation pops up, you can bet high avg. against a pitcher will make the pitcher very cautious.

Another lesson of this year is don’t ever go against a good pitcher. You can get by one or two days but they will 0-fer you very soon. Another trend I’ve seen is when the good pitcher has a bad day, its the Ramiro Penas of the teams that hit him.

Speaking of strategies here are 2 basic ones I’ve used to get good streaks going. If they were perfect, I’d be a millioinaire, so each has holes. No matter what strategy employed, luck is a big factor. You can’t foresee injuries. Nor a great defensive play turning a 1-4 into an 0-4. Nor situational plays where a 1-4 turns into 0-1 with 2 sac flies and a walk. Nor blowouts pulling starters early with just 2 ABs
Generic filters/rules of thumb: Avoid good pitchers always. Avoid hitters gone 0-fer with multiple strikeouts the game prior — may be starting a slump. Avoid 6-9 hitters especially @ home, less AB opportunities. IMO avoid lefty-lefty matchups. Batters see far more righties than lefties. Do consider picking from team where majority of starters hit pitcher well — means more ABs likely
Stragegy 1: Play who’s hot against poor pitchers. Bonus if batter has good AVG against. Backfires mid-late season when manager strategies change
Strategy 2: Pick from a team that you are pretty sure will score several runs (i.e., many ABs). If team does this, your hitter could be part of the reason & more ABs likely. Note that an Ace on the mound does not equate to high runs, though it may favor the team winning.
Strategy 3: Not my choice, not one I use. Pick from Dave’s picks everyday. Odds are that all go 0-fer are rare but will happen sometimes. Odds are than at least 1-2 will get a hit & at least 1 going 0-fer often times. But if you pick the wrong ones, you get reset
Next year, I plan on using these again

I think next year, I will have a much better run unless the state of pitching is just as good as this year. I have made many tweaks to the system and my last run carried me to 22. In the end, it was Ichiro that burned me this year. It took me a long time realize he is just a mere good hitter year. Not the invincible Ichiro of last year. But in the end, you will need a lot of luck to go your way or at the least don’t stand on your way. That Cabrera fiasco yesterday could not have been avoided. Same with Teix injury taking down the leader.

We have 5 left now and I have faith in the current leader. He is at least working on a different system. Maybe he sees guys who are swinging well last couple of days. I hope he gets there.

@btsplayer: No more texting tonight, ok? Let this one play out.

There have been many blog comments about how tough the HR Game is. Add this to the toughness. Not one of the top 15 picks last night hit a HR.
Saturday?
Tulo in a day game v. Garland of SD (?)
Hamilton left game last night with bad back.
Carlos Gonzalez in a zone v. Garland
Starlin Castro v. Mejia of NYM
Stats from Chgo SunTimes – Castro hitting .385 in last 12 games and hitting .358 at Wrigley Field (74 for 204) this season.
Ichrio v. a sad Talbot of Tribe
HR – Wind at 18 mph blowing toward the RF corner at Wrigley Field = DeWitt of Cubs
Survivor – Phils will make Brew Crew and Wolf howl for mercy.
Good Luck to all today
Kudos to the leader with that Eckstein pick last night as he was 1-3.

Well from here on out if I get reset in beat the streak again there will be nothing worth playing for. There are 30 days left including today and all that’s left is the 30 game prize. The same can be said about survivor all that’s left is the possible consolation prize which would require a 30 game streak and I can’t even win 2 in a row. For beat the streak I need to pick someone that will have at least 1 hit after 3 ABs. My last 2 O-fers have been 0 for 3s who were removed after 6 innings and then their teams had at least 1 big inning and their turn would have come up. This also means I need a hit off the starter most likely.
Beat the Streak-Robinson Cano- Why? he’s o for his last 12…. make that 13 (1/3 of the way to being 0 for 3) and he’s 7 for 51 .137 coming into the game against the Blue Jays with 8 0 fers and only 1 multi hit game in 13 games. I like Cano but what a TERRIBLE pick by me.
Survivor-Phillies- Roy Halladay is on the mound but can anyone get me out of this survivor funk?
Home run: Ryan Howard-This game is nothing but pride all season long.

Hey guys and girls. Good luck to you all today on this Saturday. Hope you all are doing well.
BTS-Starlin, look at Dragbunt’s comments for my thoughts.
HR BTS-Bautista, wind blowing out towards left field at 20 MPH and it’s a day game in the Stadium and ball flies out during the day so I expect him to hit at least 1.
Survivor-Florida, Johnson is pitching and Marlins are starting to come around and are pretty good at home and hitting is coming around so hoping he gives up at least 1 run and can you believe the Survivor leader picked San Diego and they are in the middle of an 8 game losing streak. Guess they didn’t do their homework.

@yanksgiantsdevils33: Nothing worth playing for when no longer able to get prize-length streaks going? There’s always the idea to play using a new strategy or an existing modified strategy of yours, preparing for next year. You can play to test that strategy & fine tune it or to beat your best streak (if possible). Though, I can still win a 30-gamer prize but that is not my goal. I’m streaking to test strategies & possibly beat my 2-year high of 20 games. Currently a 6-gamer looking for Polanco to move me to 7.
I’ve mentioned before that Survivor’s consolation is not desirable for me. HR BTS is the hardest game of the 3 to win. I’ve made less than 50 picks all year & my highest was 3, ever.

Saturday’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 13 or greater, totalling 338 players.
Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 338
Miguel Cabrera, 38, 11.24%
Ichiro Suzuki, 32, 9.47 (Leader & 4th)
Robinson Cano, 25, 7.4
Ryan Zimmerman, 19, 5.62 (4th)
Carlos Gonzalez, 18, 5.33 (2nd)
Josh Hamilton, 17, 5.03
Johnny Damon, 13, 3.85
Joe Mauer, 13, 3.85
Andre Ethier, 10, 2.96 (3rd)
Carl Crawford, 10, 2.96
Nick Swisher, 10, 2.96
Derek Jeter, 9, 2.66
Mark Teixeira, 8, 2.37
Placido Polanco, 7, 2.07
No Selection, 7, 2.07
Brett Hayes, 7, 2.07
Highest No Selection on page 2 with a streak of 20, now eliminated.

CALIENTE!
As I’ve mentioned before, some days you look like a king and other days like the village idiot in BTS. Well, for today, pass me the king’s crown. Starlin “The Kid” Castro strokes a line single to CF – Cha Ching!
Going forward – Watch for Carlos Zambrano’s next start and think about taking the Cubs in Survivor on Wed 9/8. He is pitching lights out today at Wrigley Field and has a single to boot. The Big Z loves to hit. Unfortunately, Dave could not get the web guys to add pitchers to HR BTS – CZ would have been a good pick today. He has 21 career HR’s and one in 2010.

@bravesfanforlife88. Didn’t include the Bloggers Group section of the Top2500. If I post Top2500 tomorrow, I’ll try to remember. You can find yourself on page 13, streak of 13.

Cubs 4 NYM 1
Carlos Marmol strikes out the side for the save.
Starlin Castro – Single, double and a nice sac bunt on a 2 strike count. He is right up there with the NL batting leaders: Votto, Sir Albert and Carlos G!
Not to shabby for a 20 year old.

Correction: Cubs 5 MYM 3

Correction: Cubs 5 MYM 3

Cano goes 2 for 4, Phillies win, Howard Homers. Streaks extend for one more day.

“Saturday’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 13 or greater, totalling 338 players.
Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes”

You probably should include the people who were at 12 as well, going into today.

There is likely to be a playoff/makeup game of some sort and even if there is not, those are definite threats to the leader.

@champ88. If we get an Oct 4th game & I’m still posting the Top2500, I’ll adjust the cutoff. But til then….
To all, first time this week the $3M runners all made it through a gameday without one of them dropping. Let’s hope that doesn’t continue ;)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Well by that time, there is likely to be no more than 1 person left then, if any at all.

If it takes 3-4 weeks for something to occur to force an Oct 4th game, the Top2500 will be sort of dead anyway ’cause anyone can track those still alive by navigating the 1st 2 pages of the leaderboard, if not just the 1st page. If Oct 4th is scheduled before then, I’ll adjust the cutoff.

@lavolpe- thanks for posting, and it is totally alright that you don’t include the bloggers group anymore. Like you said, pretty soon we will be able to follow the people with cash prize chances just by looking at the first two pages. I will continue to play obviously, but it will take a hit everyday until the season ends just to tie the leaders for me. Unless there is a playoff (which there just might be) then I can only hope that I will win a tie-breaker. Anyway, I am at my three year season high so I’m not holding my breath just yet, haha. Hopefully I can continue tomorrow but I’m not sure who to pick yet. GL to all who still have a chance.

FYI: Anyone looking for Top2500 it will be delayed. BTS website a bit messed up; can’t navigate to other than 1st page when sorted by current streaks. When it gets fixed, Top2500 will be posted.

Beat the Streak: Johnny Damon He’s facing Kyle Davies who’s 2-7 with a 6.09 era against the Tigers in 10 starts. Damon is 5 for 12 off him but he also has been 0 fer in 3 of his last 5 games. It looks like another “awful” pick by me.

Survivor: Yankees I haven’t won 3 straight since August 11-13. Can the Yankees sweep the Blue Jays for a change?

Home run: Prince Fielder He homered yesterday hat are the chances he’ll homer for a 2nd straight game?

HR BTS: Yankee announcer just mentioned that of the 20 HR that Hughes has allowed this season, 17 of them have been at home.

Would have been nice to know that coming into the season.

I am beginning to think that it is only possible to do one of these contests well over the long haul, because you need to spend an hour or two, considering all possible matchups to find the best possible pick.

And it is not practical to spend 6 hours of analysis alone every day for 180 days straight.

I will probably stick with BTS for 2011 with token HR and team picks.

Is everyone doing Postseason BTS or Postseason Survivor?

coming into today***

Are we going to discuss picks more next season?

I notice that lately there is very little discussion of picks anymore.

@champ88: Postseason BTS/Survivor is new to me, have no idea what you’re talking about. Regarding picks, it makes sense. Less ppl blogging, been eliminated and aren’t playing any more or maybe just trying new strategies for next year. Next season, give it a week or two, I’m sure the blog will be filling up with picks & stuff.
I agree with you regarding HR BTS. Survivor, though, I’ll try next year. The 2012 ASG is in KC & that’s only about 3 hours drive for me and consolation prize is attractive at that price.

Oh and regarding stats like HR’s at home/away. Wins at home/away, etc. Now that you have a good idea of what stats you’d like to be able to track, maybe consider setting up a spreadsheet and track that stuff from day 1 next season. It would require 6 hours of research, but would require about an hour or so of tallying info after every game day. Just an idea.

oops ^^ it wouldn’t require 6 hours…

Posts about who is hot and inside info is the way to go. I agree !00% on this.
My recent advice is taking Cubs Starlin Castro. Did anyone beside me take him today? He had 2 hits on Sat. and looked good at the plate as I watched the game.
Best post of the season goes to blogger who told us that Troy Tulo has a hit in every day game he has played in this season. Streak is still intact!
Also, the post today about Hughes and giving up 17 of his 20 HR’s at Yankee Stadium is great info – Jays have 2 HR’s against him today. How can we get that info before game time?
If you read the daily paper, here it on the radio, see it on TV etc. please post these “factiods”asap each AM.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I think the previews from MLB and ESPN that are written for each game contain some of that info, but the problem is how you can find the time to read 30 previews that are 2-3 pages long each day?

One idea I am toying with is going to each of the team’s individual forums and trying to recruit a few core fans of each team into playing Beat the Streak.

The only problem there could be that the blog gets too flooded with posts.

If we had 2 people per team posting each day, that would be 60+ posts, in addition to the 30-50 posts we had during the year.

That might make it difficult to keep up a conversation.

My other plan would be to open a daily thread on each individual team’s forum and then put each team’s consensus pick into the blog here, but that would take quite a lot of work to organize each day.

But that would allow the angle of “who is swinging best per team” to be added to the blog each day from someone who watches most of his team’s games.

What do you think?

“Best post of the season goes to blogger who told us that Troy Tulo has a hit in every day game he has played in this season. Streak is still intact!”

Does anyone know if these stats tend to carry over from 1 year to the next?

Like were Alex Rios and Troy Tulowitzki always great day hitters?

Or are we going to have to go back to the drawing board next year, with regards to the various split specialists???

Sunday’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 14 or greater, totalling 263 players. Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 263
Josh Hamilton, 35, 13.31%
Miguel Cabrera, 30, 11.41
Carl Crawford, 19, 7.22 (2nd)
Joey Votto, 14, 5.32 (3rd)
Ichiro Suzuki, 11, 4.18
Albert Pujols, 10, 3.8
Omar Infante, 10, 3.8 (4th)
Ryan Braun, 10, 3.8
Troy Tulowitzki, 9, 3.42 (4th)
Adam Dunn, 7, 2.66
Evan Longoria, 7, 2.66
Jhonny Peralta, 6, 2.28
Derek Jeter, 5, 1.9
Ian Kinsler, 5, 1.9
Robinson Cano, 5, 1.9
Carlos Lee, 1, 0.38 (Leader)
No Selection, 0, 0.00
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
bravesfanforlife88, 14, 10, Carl Crawford

@dragbunt104, champion_88
Another Yankee loss against the Blue Jays when I picked the Yankees on survivor. My 9 game streak ended with an 8-2 loss in early August. I must avoid Phil Hughes at home with his HR problems. All I’m playing for in survivor now is pride to see if I can get to 10+ or not.

@yanksgiantsdevils33. Don’t take this the wrong way. If you continue to only select Survivor teams with their #1/#2 pitchers on the mound, you will not get very far. MLB hasn’t seen a 30 game winner in a pitcher in quite awhile. I still think one of the keys to selected a successful Survivor pick is to look at starters’ AVG vs opposing pitcher. The more starters hitting the pitcher well can equate to a win, assumming the opposing team isn’t killing your pitcher too.

@lavolpe I’ve got to check previews carefully to see how a team is doing against a specidic pitcher. Yankees vs. Os the next 3 days look tempting but the Twins tomorrow maybe a good try instead.

Leaderboard: 5 are at 28+
@34 bretzky26 Carlos Lee
@31 pops50 Carl Crawford (safe)
@29 gp83773149 Joey Votto
@28 astoclubgoer Troy Tulowitzki, tietyeg Omar Infante (safe)
———————-
@27 bhovekamp Josh Hamilton (did not play) eliminated from grand prize, can still play for consolation.
197 are alive for the consolation prize at 15+

Cutoff for consolation, as of this morning, is 14 not 15. Remember, one can tie and compete with Dick/Geoff for the tiebreaker. I don’t know if your 197 already subtracted those that failed today/DNP? But 263 had a streak of 14+ entering today’s games.

Well of the 5 that still are in the running for $3M, three moved on already, one dropped today with Votto. The leader picked a 247 hitter today. Too risky? We’ll find out. He is 0-2 so far.
@yanks: Don’t count Hamilton out yet, sill pinch hit prospect

At top of this blog I guessed only 3 would remain after this holiday weekend. So, with 4 of 5 moving on today, one of those remaining 4 needs to drop from the race. Volunteers? ;). Good nite bloggers.

Beat the Streak: Johnny Damon 0 for 4 officially eliminates me from the 30 game prize which was the last remaining. Kyle Davies and the bullpen combined on a 3 hitter. If September 2011 comes along and the 1st 5 months next season turn out like this year, (with lots off good pitching eras and bad pitchers getting a bunch of gems) there is going to be no hope. Getting 30+ is a miracle let alone 57. Certain days it seems that good pitchers give up the hits and bad pitchers throw 3 hitters.
Survivor:
Yankees lost to the Blue Jays 7-3 eliminating me from the consolation prize on the same day that I was eliminated from 30 on beat the streak. In addition to trying out lavolpe’s survivor strategy, it’s going to depend on the combination off hot hitters + hot pitchers (hot teams before their streaks end) to get a long streak in that game.
As of tomorrow I’m going into each remaining gameday officially playing for pride in both beat the streak and survivor. If those strategy’s don’t work out next season, there maybe no point in playing in 2012.
Home run: Prince Fielder homered in the 1st inning to get me back to 2! I may strongly consider taking Robinson Cano tomorrow.

Monday Labor Day
BTS – Troy “The Sun God” Tulo – Why fight success?
HR – Another day – Pujols – He will break out eventually.
Survivor – Twins look good
Playing for the heck of it now: Trying for 100 wins in Survivor, 200 hits in BTS and 30+ HR’s and bettering my miserable 12 game BTS longest streak.
Tough Tough Season for 2010

“@yanksgiantsdevils33. Don’t take this the wrong way. If you continue to only select Survivor teams with their #1/#2 pitchers on the mound, you will not get very far. MLB hasn’t seen a 30 game winner in a pitcher in quite awhile. I still think one of the keys to selected a successful Survivor pick is to look at starters’ AVG vs opposing pitcher. The more starters hitting the pitcher well can equate to a win, assumming the opposing team isn’t killing your pitcher too.”

I used to play the Survivor contest quite intensely, back when the BTS prize was not much higher, and I noticed that looking at EVERYTHING really did increase your win %.

There is a direct correlation there between more research and more winning.

I was thinking of taking Ryan Howard in HR beat the streak but the Phillis are playing a double header. And I’m having a hard time deciding between Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Marcus Thames. So I’m going to use Josh Hamilton to pause my HR beat the streak.
Beat the Streak: Martin Prado
Survivor: Twins

Monday’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 14 or greater, totalling 172 players. Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 172
Joe Mauer, 24, 13.95% (3rd)
Carlos Gonzalez, 22, 12.79
Robinson Cano, 20, 11.63
Ichiro Suzuki, 13, 7.56 (2nd)
Derek Jeter, 9, 5.23
Albert Pujols, 7, 4.07
Martin Prado, 6, 3.49
Omar Infante, 6, 3.49 (4th)
Jason Heyward, 5, 2.91
Mark Teixeira, 5, 2.91
Miguel Cabrera, 5, 2.91
Brian McCann, 4, 2.33
Ian Kinsler, 4, 2.33
Josh Hamilton, 4, 2.33 (dnp likely)
No Selection, 4, 2.33
Ryan Zimmerman, 1, 0.58 (Leader)
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 17, now eliminated
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
bravesfanforlife88, 15, 6, Derek Jeter

^^ forgot to change that part. Includes steaks of 15 or better!

Jeff Baker of Cubs hitting over .340 v. lefties and Cubs face Wandy Rodriguez today – let’s see if he plays and how he does. He was 3-3 yesterday v. Mets lefty Niece.
Tulo 0 – 6 v. Reds Harang but it is a day game so I went with him in BTS.
Wind blowing about 15-20mph toward LF at Wrigley could be a wild one. Went with Geovany Soto who hits Rodriguez well.

I usually don’t root against the people winning, but if the leader gets to 44 then I am all but eliminated from cash prizes. So, it would be nice if he fell today but at the same time, I feel like bad karma will come to me if I root against him, haha. At least Jeter got a first inning double to move me along to 16. Not sure who to pick for tomorrow.

“But Survivor would be tough for any algorithm, too many moving parts to reliably predict.”

This is impossible. I am sure the sports bookies have hired countless brainiacs trying to figure out the winning system. And they concluded they know just enough to spread the bets and give points so they can make the money from the spread. If you could conquer this, I am sure the hedge funds will be lining up to hire you and pay you gazillions of dollars. I think consistenly predicting baseball games is much harder than predicting where the stocks would go.

You know one thing is for sure. You have to give huge weight to the starting pitcher in the model. The bookies have a rule if the starting pitcher don’t start, all bets are cancelled.

@champ88. Recall much earlier in the year we were talking about creating software to make picks? Well, I’m playing with something I call a BTS Survivor Calculator. I’ve got about 3 weeks of games to fine tune it to see how well it does. It is interesting so far, the calculator predicts NYY/BAL to be a close game with BAL winning (so far so good). Other games it’s predicting: WAS over NYM, ATL over PIT, STL over MIL, KC over MIN, CWS over DET. I don’t expect it to be 99% accurate, but with some tweaks may I can use it next year to help in Survivor and also help focus on teams to pick BTS from. For today, it strongly predicts SEA hitting OAK well & Ichiro maybe a good pick today. But yesterday, it favored DET over KC & the end result IMO was unexpected with KC throwing a 3 hitter. Anyway, just stuff to keep my mind busy while I await the final $3M runners falling from the leaderboard.

Zimmerman comes through! I think the leader is got something going on here. Totally working on a different system. Only 21 games to go!

LOL. They brought in Oliver Perez!

“No Selection, 4, 2.33″

Well, I guess the 2-day streak of everyone making picks is over!

“Jeff Baker of Cubs hitting over .340 v. lefties and Cubs face Wandy Rodriguez today – let’s see if he plays and how he does. He was 3-3 yesterday v. Mets lefty Niece.
Tulo 0 – 6 v. Reds Harang but it is a day game so I went with him in BTS.
Wind blowing about 15-20mph toward LF at Wrigley could be a wild one. Went with Geovany Soto who hits Rodriguez well.”

Wandy Rodriguez has a sub 2.00 ERA in his last 13 starts, so it might not be a good idea to pick against him.

Why did Starlin Castro sit though?

“@champ88. Recall much earlier in the year we were talking about creating software to make picks? Well, I’m playing with something I call a BTS Survivor Calculator. I’ve got about 3 weeks of games to fine tune it to see how well it does.”

What stuff do you have in each model?

And how long have the models been in development?

3 of the last 4 $3M contenders are in troube:

Zimmerman: 0 for 3, 1 walk, 1 more AB
Mauer: 0 for 2, 2 more AB
Infante: 0 for 3, 1 more AB
Ichiro: 405 start

@champ88. Algorithm is in infancy. Only a week old right now. The logic is attempting to use as little data as possible, but does include OBA, starter’s AVG, team win/loss percentage, among other stuff for different algos. Still needs work and trying to figure out a good weighting system to offset 1000 AVG with 1-2 ABs, for example. But Survivor would be tough for any algorithm, too many moving parts to reliably predict. Just 1 bad inning, 1 error, 1 key injury, etc, can throw the entire game off in one direction or the other. Still playing with the idea nonetheless

@champ88: “You know one thing is for sure. You have to give huge weight to the starting pitcher in the model. The bookies have a rule if the starting pitcher don’t start, all bets are cancelled.”
Agreed. And this is where luck comes in during BTS too. If your pick’s hit is off the pen, how can anyone argue the streak continuing is other than luck? Same goes for picking against pitchers never seen before. And that last scenario is where the “Calculator” is flawed. But out of the 6-15 games played daily (usually), I’m seeing if the “Calculator” can pick from 2-4 very likely outcomes. The scoring system also indicates close game potential. BAL/NYY, CIN/COL & KC/MINN were scored as close. If picking, then I’d avoid those that might be close and go elsewhere as I did with picking WAS today.

Infante and Zimmerman will get 1 more AB.

Mauer just blooped a single in, so astro moves up to 30.

Zimmerman singled in his last AB, which moves him to 36.

The single came on a jammed shot on an 0-2 pitch.

Final in Atlanta.

Infante: 0 for 4, 1 walk, knocks out 6, including the 4th place player

Prado: 0 for 5, knocks out 6 more

Tulowitzki: just tripled in the 4th, which pushes me to 2; if it would have just rode him against Garland on Saturday, I would be at 8!

This is the 2nd time I’ve taken Prado against the Pirates and he goes 0 for 5. The “SWITCH” bites again! I had Mark Teixeira who went 1 for 4. As for Prado how do you get 5 chances against the Pirates and FAIL? And this has happened twice. 2 o fers in a row, 3 out of 5, 4 out of 7 and 7 out of my last 12 picks.
In survivor I also switched, switching from the Yankees to the Twins but the Yankees lost. The Twins lead 5-4 in the top of the 7th can they hold on?
Josh Hamilton did not pinch hit so I’m still at 2 in home run.

Starli Castro sits for an off day – He has been playing every day and the 0-fer on Sunday probably made the decision.
He also lost track of how many outs there were in one situation on Sunday.
Jeff Baker hits the lefties as he singled in the bottom of the first inning and a double so he was 2 – 4.
My feeling, as it has been for some time now, is that the person to crack the 50 game in a row plateau will be someone who uses these “factoids” to make a run at 57.
Ichiro just got a hit – M’s now have two hits.
Survior is tough – You have to use facts and all the “wits” and inside info you can get your hands on.
e.g. like Sunday when someone posted that Hughes of NYY gave up 17 of his 20 HR’s at Yankee Stadium – We know what happened Jays beat Yanks at the stadium.
My longest run has been 11 games in Survivor for a rank of 1429 – that shows how tough the game is.

@champ88: The Calculator did well today & still needs some work. I modified a couple weighting factors & will check it out tomorrow. Best case scenario, maybe, just maybe if it tends to predict with good accuracy, next year, I can provide my “LaVolpe Picks” for Survivor similar to Dave’s picks for BTS…. hmmmm.
Results of today’s calculations:
Correct: in order of best probability: WAS, STL, BAL, CWS, CHC, COL
Wrong: in same order: SEA, ATL, KC, TEX
Of games still in progress or to be played, to win: SF, TB (close scoring?), CLE, SD
Some weaknesses include guessing starting lineup, high averages for 1-2 lifetime ABs, and a few other scenarios. Starting lineup is key though; averages of bench players affect outcome far less often.

Tomorrow’s picks via Calculator: CHC, TOR, MIN, DET, LAA, PHI, OAK, LAD, BAL, STL, TB, SF, COL, NYM
That BAL prediction must be wrong as it’s vs Sabathia @ home :) Anyway, the top 4 are of primary interest for me & CHC prediction is iffy since most starters only have 1 game vs pitcher.

Well, I’ve tweaked the weighting functions quite a bit and the new prediction for tomorrow follows. BAL still favored over NYY by the algorithm. Besides probability rankings changing, so did the following matchups: MIL over STL, WSH over NYM, PIT over ATL. We shalls see
An asterisk indicates close game prediction:
MIN, TOR, LAA, DET, CHC, LAD, MIL, *PHI, OAK, TB, *BAL, *SF, *COL, *PIT, *WSH

^^^ SD pitching change tomorrow, just posted. SD now favored over LAD.

Survivor – How to Guide:
1. Check the Schedule on MLB.com and see what the game line says about the pitchers.
2. Check newspaper that give game odds & that shows what the pitchers have done the past 3 games – ERA, W – L.
3. Check out your factiods:
Sabathia is huge at home.
Carpenter is huge at home and dominates Central Div Team rivals.
4. Pirates are a terrible road team.
5. O’s are no longer a Double AA team.
6. Make your best pick = Tuesday Twins and Liriano over Royals.

@dragbunt: regarding your comments
1 & 2. agree
3, 4 & 5. Year to year and can change
6. agreed
I think adding rotoworld to your daily checks too. Newspapers & MLB may not have late scratch info or scheduled rest days for key players. rotoworld can provide that info many times, well before games lock. And yes it can matter, especially if 1 or more key players are not in the lineup as expected.

The model I use for Survivor outputs the following values:

1) Braves: 7.00 points
2) Yankees: 5.50 points
3) Twins: 3.50 points (wins tiebreaker over Astros)
4) Astros: 3.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Twins)
5) Athletics: 3.00 points (wins tiebreaker over Brewers)
6) Brewers: 3.00 points (loses tiebreaker to Athletics)
7) Blue Jays: 2.50 points
8) White Sox: 2.25 points
9) Rockies: 1.50 points (wins tiebreakers over Giants and Rays)
10) Giants: 1.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Rockies, but wins tiebreaker over Rays)
11) Rays: 1.50 points (loses tiebreakers to Rockies and Giants)
12) Indians: 0.50 points (wins tiebreakers over Phillies and Nationals)
13) Phillies: 0.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Indians, but wins tiebreaker over Nationals)
14) Nationals: 0.50 points (loses tiebreakers to Indians and Phillies)
15) Dodgers / Padres: 0.00 points

Of course, the model above only analyzes the starting pitchers.

@champ88. What? No criteria if a full moon or played in months with 31 days? Otherwise, it just might be perfect :)

lol, well now we head to Stage 2 for the model.

First off, it eliminates any teams who do not have at least 2.00 points from consideration.

There are some exceptions to this model, such as when Ubaldo Jimenez was starting in the midst of his 13-1 start to the year.

But as a general rule, that is where the model is right now.

So that reduces the conversation to 8 teams.

Next, it looks at the quality of the teams involved in a game, how they are doing recently, and their home/road splits.

And then it eliminates any teams that do not have at least 4.00 points by the end of that stage.

So here are the values so far:

1) Braves: 10.25 points
2) Yankees: 9.50 points
3) Twins: 6.50 points
4) Athletics: 6.50 points
5) White Sox: 4.25 points

6) Astros: 3.75 points
7) Blue Jays: 3.25 points
8) Brewers: 2.25 points

So now for Stage 3, you only have 5 teams in play.

Looking at this setup, I would get rid of the White Sox right now as well, since they are barely in contention and are on a long winning streak right now facing a team that has their ace on the mound.

And so now you have the 4 teams that can match up against the 4 teams that you care about: Braves, Yankees, Twins, Athletics.

In order to drill down to 1 team, you then use your “factoids” or trends that you have noticed over the years.

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