Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, September 8

WrightBTS480.jpg

Well, isn’t “bretzky26″ making things interesting?

Our fearless leader upped his/her streak to a robust 37 games after successfully choosing Mark Teixeira for Tuesday’s slate.

“bretzky26″ is now just a 20-game streak away from taking home the big bucks.

Let’s see how this one all shakes out.

Time for Wednesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Stephen Drew: .345 AVG (10-for-29) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito

? Evan Longoria: .545 AVG (6-for-11) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield

? David Wright: .375 AVG (12-for-32) lifetime vs. Nationals starter Livan Hernandez

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Jason Kubel: .304 AVG (7-for-23) lifetime vs. Royals starter Zack Greinke

You’ll thank me later…

? Billy Butler: .000 AVG (0-for-7) lifetime vs. Twins starter Brian Duensing

? Mark Teixeira: .000 AVG (0-for-4) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Brad Bergesen

? Nyjer Morgan: .000 AVG (0-for-7) lifetime vs. Mets starter R.A. Dickey

Leaderboard time!

Unfortunately, “pops50″ saw his/her streak go down in flames after Hanley Ramirer went hitless. We’ll miss you, pops.

That means that “astoclubgoer” is in second place in the standings with a 31-gamer.

On that note, he is also the only streaker outside of “bretzky26″ who
still has enough time on the calendar to put together a 57-game streak.

Top MLB streakers

? Carlos Gonzalez: 15 games

? A.J. Pierzynski: 14 games

? Neil Walker: 14 games

? Michael Cuddyer: 12 games

? Adrian Gonzalez: 10 games 

53 Comments

Thanks for providing that valuable information that I had so much time to consider before I had to put my pick in.

Top2500 will be posted about 6PM EST & may not include the 2 early games nor No Selections.
For grins, will post the Survivor picks when Top2500 posted. Got 11 of 15 correct yesterday, how many today? Hmmm.
Thoughts on leader’s pick today? Orlando has bad numbers vs righties/away games. Subpar numbers all the way around, except for the past 30 days where he’s been hot @ 417 but dropping n last 10 days to 317. Here’s another positive: 2-4 vs Cook this year, over 500 lifetime.

^^^^^^^^^

lol, it is Wednesday today!

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 15 or greater, totalling 187 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 53 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 187
Robinson Cano, 26, 13.90% (5th)
Joey Votto, 25, 13.37% (5th, 5th, 5th)
Martin Prado, 20, 10.70% (2nd, 5th)
Carlos Gonzalez, 20, 10.70% (48.67% of picks are in the top 4)
Ichiro Suzuki, 9, 4.81% (3rd)
Jason Heyward, 6, 3.21%
Hunter Pence, 5, 2.67%
Josh Hamilton, 4, 2.14%
Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 2.14%
Orlando Cabrera, 3, 1.60% (Leader)
Alex Rodriguez, 3, 1.60%
Brett Hayes, 3, 1.60%
Curtis Granderson, 3, 1.60%
Albert Pujols, 3, 1.60% (3rd)
No Selection, 3, 1.60% (one 18-game hit streak who had a 29-game hit streak earlier in the season + two 15-game hit streaks)
Paul Konerko, 3, 1.60%
Nick Markakis, 3, 1.60%
Michael Young, 2, 1.07%
Joe Mauer, 2, 1.07%
Derek Jeter, 2, 1.07%
Shane Victorino, 2, 1.07%
Neil Walker, 2, 1.07%
Omar Infante, 2, 1.07%
Ian Kinsler, 2, 1.07%
Evan Longoria, 2, 1.07%
Albert Pujols, 1, 0.53%
Rafael Furcal, 1, 0.53% (5th)
Evan Longoria, 1, 0.53%
Mark Teahen, 1, 0.53%
Jose Reyes, 1, 0.53%
Will Rhymes, 1, 0.53%
Lorenzo Cain, 1, 0.53%
Vladimir Guerrero, 1, 0.53%
Brian Roberts, 1, 0.53%
Mark Teixeira, 1, 0.53%
Angel Pagan, 1, 0.53%
Vernon Wells, 1, 0.53%
Ryan Howard, 1, 0.53%
Placido Polanco, 1, 0.53%
Brian McCann, 1, 0.53%
Melky Cabrera, 1, 0.53%
Brandon Phillips, 1, 0.53%
Ryan Theriot, 1, 0.53%
Yuniesky Betancourt, 1, 0.53%
Nelson Cruz, 1, 0.53%
Marlon Byrd, 1, 0.53%
Aaron Miles, 1, 0.53%
Derrek Lee, 1, 0.53%
Matt Holliday, 1, 0.53%
Carl Crawford, 1, 0.53%
Brett Gardner, 1, 0.53%
Delmon Young, 1, 0.53%
Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.53%
Highest No Selection on page 3 with streak of 18, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I tried to keep your style as exact as I could, so people will not be thrown off.

I expanded the list of players included to 15 though so we can ensure that when this list is fully eliminated, the contest is really over.

I seriously doubt that there will be 3 days of tiebreakers or even 1 rainout and 2 days of tiebreakers.

How does it look?

Day games on Tuesday?
Late But:
Hunter Pence playing hard as I watched Cub v. Stros last night. Thinking there is a hit in his bat tonight v. Wells ov Cubs who is hittable. Could be in 1st inning as Wells has a first inning phobia.

Small listing, just did it by hand. So here it is:
Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 17 or greater, totaling 114 players. Anyone with shorter streaks mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 114
Joey Votto, 17, 14.91%
Robinson Cano, 17, 14.91
Martin Prado, 15, 13.16 (2nd)
Carlos Gonzalez, 14, 12.28
Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.51
Josh Hamilton, 4, 3.51
Brett Hayes, 3, 2.63
Hunter Pence, 3, 2.63
Paul Konerko, 3, 2.63
Albert Pujols, 2, 1.75
Curtis Granderson, 2, 1.75
Derek Jeter, 2, 1.75
Jason Heyward, 2, 1.75
Joe Mauer, 2, 1.75
Michael Young, 2, 1.75
Shane Victorino, 2, 1.75
Troy Tulowitzki, 2, 1.75
No Selection, 1, 0.88
Orlando Cabrera, 1, 0.88 (Leader)
Only No Selection on page 3 with streak of 18, now eliminated
Bloggers Group Top2500
bravesfanforlife88, @ 16, reset yesterday with Mi.Cabrera

Hey champ88, are you going to continue posting Top2500ish for rest of the month? If so, I won’t. This way we don’t post over each other like today.
How does it look? Maybe in future posts, just comma delimit the picks @ 1? Or maybe similar to the way the $3M runners were being tracked a week ago….
@17: list of picks
@15: list of picks
@4: list of picks
etc
Just a suggestion

@champ88: “I tried to keep your style as exact as I could, so people will not be thrown off.”
Blog clock must off again, sprinkling posts around in non-sequential order. Anyway, I think that was a reply to my question above. Anyway, you going to do it from now on?

well I did not want us to lose data and I knew that there was no way a 100 PM start would still be going at 630 PM.

but for the days in which you can use the program, it will be easier to do it that way, since it is cumbersome to do it by hand.

it took me about an hour, but the house was quiet today.

which days in the next week can you use the program?

damn

Cano singles in possibly his last AB off a 3-2 meatball.

Not sure what the point of that was.

He could have tried to make a good pitch and maybe get him out or end up with the same result as what he got.

@champ88: “which days in the next week can you use the program?”
Any day where 1st game is on/after 3PM Eastern & on all weekends. But on weekdays, the listing won’t be posted earlier than 5PM Eastern. After this week is over, the listing may be pretty small & compact enough to easily include all still in the running & also to do by hand if needed w/o a program

the Yankees just pinch-hit for Granderson.

0 for 1 with a walk

2 more are eliminated.

@champ88. Careful, doing the Top2500 hooks you, making you want to watch ABs for all/most of the hitters on the list. You may be up very late tonight. I think 00Liber would agree too?

Afternoon results:

Successes:

Robinson Cano (26, 5th)
Alex Rodriguez (3)
Nick Markakis (3)
Jose Reyes (1) (15-day DL, but user was at 20, so he has some rest days left)
Brian Roberts (1)
Angel Pagan (1)
Brett Gardner (1)

Failures:

Curtis Granderson (3)
No Selection (3)
Derek Jeter (2)
Mark Teixeira (1)

What happened to this blog? There used to be good information about the BTS picks. Now its infested with useless ramblings and jealousy posts. I hope the guy in the lead does win just to shut them up. Now we have 2 lists so they can have their multiple orgasms everytime someone loses his streak. Why do they care so much about other’s picks?

Why do they care so much about other’s picks?
So, you’ve never looked at the leaderboard? I like orgasms.

@gyroman92. When was last time you came to the blog? That Top2500 listing has been running since mid-April I think. And until recently, when most people have been eliminated, the blog continually has had some nice info about picks. Maybe you should consider contributing?

gyroman – Please post who you liked today (Wed) and share your reasoning and please do the same for Thursday.
I posted that I liked Hunter Pence today.
This info is helpful to all.
Inside info on your team is appreciated too.
Thanks………………

Survivor Calculator picks by level of confidence:
Good: CIN, ATL, CWS, CHC
So-So: *MIN, STL, OAK, BOS
Iffy: *NYY, *TOR, *CLE, PHI, NYM, AZ, *SD,
* indicates matchups where a team vs pitcher little to no history
If this proves to be a good return like yesterday, I’ll post tomorrow’s picks later tonite. My idea is that picking a good batter from one of the teams that appear is going to win, may have a higher pct of getting a hit. Corrupted logic? Maybe.

Hi everyone I was at the Yankee game today so I was unable to post earlier. Yesterday’s results: Albert Pujols was a half success, succeeding in beat the streak and failing in home run. In survivor the Blue Jays beat the Rangers.
Today’s picks;
Beat the Streak: Robinson Cano (Safe)
Survivor: Yankees (Win)- Swisher is the hero saving the day and my streak.
Home run: Jose Batista

I went with Neil Walker today, since he is a great home/night hitter and Lowe is hittable.

The one thing that made me nervous is that Walker was riding a 14-game hit streak and I like to avoid people whose streaks are lengthening.

But usually it is good for there to be SOMETHING that worries me about a pick, because the perfect picks do not come through that often.

@champ88. Same here, kinda. Picked Infante 187 vs Duke because I believed ATL would win & hit well, giving a great batter an extra AB. That worked out too, in fact he may get 7 ABs if not pulled.
Leader’s pick benched. So streak remains steady unless Orlando comes in for pinch hitting (possible).

Maybe 7 ABs is pushing it. But 6 ABs will help his chances at getting to 502 and challenge the batting title this year.

wow, cannot believe they pulled Infante with a guaranteed 6th AB coming.

I wonder if Cox realizes Infante is trying to qualify for the batting title?

Votto and Prado both have hits from the top 4.

Gonzalez is 0 for 1 so far.

Tomorrow: CWS in Survivor with Konerko in BTS. Using the new formula I have for that game, averaging +7.66 run differential in last 3 picks.
Predicting CIN over COL tomorrow…

@champ88: “What is 187″?
It was his average vs pitcher last 5 years

Leader has resigned to the fact that Cabrera is most likely going to get in the game at some point in time and pinch hit, and is in big trouble.

Leader also questions manager Dusty Baker for not playing Cabrera today, considering his outstanding numbers against Cook.

Infante now has 407 PA.

He needs 95 more PA to qualify with 22 games left in the season.

Now needs 5 PA in 7/22 remaining games with 4 in each of the others.

But Carlos Gonzalez is also challenging him now for the average and he has already qualified.

“Leader has resigned to the fact that Cabrera is most likely going to get in the game at some point in time and pinch hit, and is in big trouble.”

The Reds are already losing 5-1.

If the Rockies get another run or so, they are not going to bring in Cabrera to pinch-hit, if they wanted to give him a day off.

Factoid from Cub game announcers:
“Barry Zito has not won a road game since May 5th.”

Thursday
Day game for the Rockies
My pick is Tulo who has 2HR’s Wed night
HR – Pence (You gotta like a guy who bats 3rd and chokes up 2 inches on his bat.)
Survivor – WOW? Rockies look promising(?)

wow, I cannot believe they pinch-hit for Holliday!

Shows how risky it is to pick any Cardinal really.

“Picked Infante 187″

What is 187?

I’m changing my pick for tomorrow from Matt Holliday to Troy Tulowitzki.

So is tomorrow gonna be the day Tulo screws us? He looks ripe for picking but I am afraid of the CIN’s pitcher. Either he is going back to pitching well or the league has figured him out. I still want to try to beat my personal best for the season. I still have a chance @ 30+ in my last drive.

ATL have to face Wainwright. He has been iffy but he turned in a couple of complete masterpices last month amongst mediocres. If Wainwright is on, Infante or Prado will 0-fer. And Wainwright pitches well against righties anyway.

I am glad my streak don’t count for peanuts because I would be going nuts trying to find a pick for tomorrow.

I switched back to Matt Holliday. Travis Wood has a .212 average against far UNDER my don’t pick below .240 average against rule. It could be the 1st day game that Tulowitzki goes 0 fer and I don’t want to be in that party.

wow, some people got royally unlucky today in the Indians/Angels game!

Erick Aybar went 0 for 6.

Reggie Willits went 0 for 4 in 6 PA.

Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo went 0 for 6 in EIGHT plate appearances!!!

If anyone can use this info, here it is. I’ve been 18 of 28 in picks of all games over last 2 days. Still 2 games to go tonite & picked SD & OAK to win; both winning at the moment — so, maybe 20 of 30 overall.
FYI only, you should do your own research.
To win tomorrow: CWS, *LAD, *CIN, STL, SF, *TOR
(*) indicates matchups where “team vs pitcher” has little to no history/data for 1 of the teams

“Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo went 0 for 6 in EIGHT plate appearances!!!”

I’ve been there w/ my picks many before. Some days, its not meant to be. I bet I could pitch to them and the result would be the same.

“I am glad my streak don’t count for peanuts because I would be going nuts trying to find a pick for tomorrow.”

I think tomorrow will really separate out the contenders from the pretenders.

If you can afford an off-day, I would suggest looking for a safe do not play pick, if it exists, because I doubt the landscape will be this poor for the rest of the season again.

Those right on the edge have a very difficult decision to make tomorrow.

I found a couple of daring picks. Definitely left of field picks but I just saw the leader’s posts and I don’t want him to blame me if I influnced him in any nagative way. Keep searching. There are a couple of them out there. I guess I can afford to pick them since my streak don’t count but I am still trying to pretend that I am making the pick under “real” situation.

There is another bad day coming up on the 16th. Don’t know the pitchers yet but from the teams match-up, don’t look that promising.

Honestly, my biggest pet peeve about this game is the deadline for making picks. I absolutely have no problem them making the deadline 5 minutes before the game starts. What I would suggest(and it would of certainly influenced/changed my pick today) is, for example, make a 5:00 cutoff for games at 5:05, and then for people that are eyeing games that start at 7:05, make it a 7:00. This prevents people from picking people who will not be in the lineup for that given game, because the worst way to lose would be way of the pinch hitter. I don’t see any clear cut advantage with the system I just proposed.

The 16th? No offense to bretzky26 or astoclubgoer, but I think the only people still trying for cash at that point will be those chasing Dick/Geoff not the $3M. We shall see

@bretzky26. Would be nice if that could be done, but should a game start early (rare) due to potential rain, even 30 minutes early, MLB would have to scramble to update systems to update locks. Oh, and for those that think they can cheat with multiple accounts & get away with it…. pick a game at 5 & if lose, pick another at 7 with another account. Then there’s the issue of the leaderboard. If I’m competing with you for a run at the money and I see you picked and lost, that might influence my pick to include an injured one that won’t play. The above scenarios are all possible and maybe can be prevented but I dont’ see the game changing. I’d also like to wait if possible. Even for Survivor… knowing who is in the lineup can help determine a team to pick. Not knowing until 6 hours later sucks.

I think the leader will at least take the Dick’s prize. He is only 6 games away. He has a good momentum and luck going his way. Strange things happen that inexplicably go his way. And he is using a method that has not been seen before. I didn’t even know until now Cabrera didn’t start today. I had him confused with Phillips for some reason.

@btsplayer. Use rotoworld to help with lineup changes. Maybe the leader will get 44 or better. Then again, I thought Geoff would beat it a by a couple games & when Dick was alone at the top, I wasn’t sure he’d stop at 43 either. Luck has a way of turning on a dime.

Acutally, I just spent the last 1/2 hr looking though and tomorrow is not that bad. There are some good picks, albeit iffy, if you look outside the box just a bit. But this year has been iffy picks almost everyday. And most of the so-called solid picks have been the biggest streak killers after everyone piles in on it. If you’re just looking for name brand players, you not going to find a good one tomorrow.

@champ88. Post the Top2500 tomorrow if you would.
@bretzky26: Good luck chasing 44. But once you hit that, I & many more will be digging thru our jinx boxes until we find something that works, be warned

To win tomorrow: CWS, *LAD, *CIN, STL, SF, *TOR
rotoworld: Kemp/Furcal being rested. LAD prediction based on flawed info. Can’t update my program before games lock. I’ll consider the LAD/HOU game as a no-pick.

^^ Cabrera(DET) DNP today. Prediction of CWS winning looks better now.

“@bretzky26. Would be nice if that could be done, but should a game start early (rare) due to potential rain, even 30 minutes early, MLB would have to scramble to update systems to update locks. ”

That has almost never happened and the one time it did, it was announced the night before.

I mean they have the same “problem,” when a game rains ouit and they make it up the next day during the afternoon on a day with a 700 lock.

So they are definitely capable of making the change and it very likely is just changing the time in the code.

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