Beat the Streak Report: Monday, September 13

LongoriaBTS480.jpg


Oh, hello there …

? Shane Victorino: .500 AVG (10-for-20) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Andrew Miller

? Evan Longoria: .357 AVG (5-for-14)lifetime vs. Yankees starter CC Sabathia

? Nyjer Morgan: .545 AVG (12-for-22) lifetime vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Ben Zobrist: .350 AVG (7-for-20) lifetime vs. Yankees starter CC Sabathia

You’ll thank me later…

? Jayson Werth: .000 AVG (0-for-9) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Andrew Miller

? Mark Teixeira: .154 AVG (2-for-13) lifetime vs. Rays starter David Price

? Ryan Braun: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Astros starter Brett Myers

Top MLB streakers

? Neil Walker: 18 games 

? Michael Brantley: 13 games

? Ichiro Suzuki: 13 games

Mark Ellis: 13 games

20 Comments

Beat the Streak: Shane Victorino
Home run: Ryan Howard
Survivor: Braves

I guess the blogger is just as disgusted with the performance of the streakers as we’re. He basically says a lot by not saying anything.

I have been making small notes on the side of which picks are ripe for a wipeout. I am just assuming there is some sort of pattern here but it could be completely random and I am just seeing something that is not there. I just don’t feel confidant about Victoriano today. I know everything looks dandy but something just doesn’t click. I am thinking if it had to be a Philly, Utley looks more promising.

Anyway, I went with Pujols.

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 19 or greater, totalling 64 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 24 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 64
Albert Pujols, 12, 18.75%
Shane Victorino, 11, 17.19% (1st, 4th)
Adrian Beltre, 7, 10.94% (5th) (46.88% of picks are in the top 3; only -0.05% change from yesterday in the top 3)
Omar Infante, 3, 4.69%
Vernon Wells, 3, 4.69%
Billy Butler, 3, 4.69%
Placido Polanco, 3, 4.69%
Matt Holliday, 2, 3.13%
Ichiro Suzuki, 2, 3.13%
No Selection, 2, 3.13% (20-game hit streak and 18-game hit streak)
Jayson Werth, 2, 3.13%
Kelly Johnson, 1, 1.56% (1st)
Albert Pujols, 1, 1.56% (1st)
Robinson Cano, 1, 1.56%
Jose Bautista, 1, 1.56%
Angel Pagan, 1, 1.56%
Martin Prado, 1, 1.56%
Miguel Tejada, 1, 1.56%
Chase Utley, 1, 1.56%
Rickie Weeks, 1, 1.56%
Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 1.56%
Ryan Howard, 1, 1.56%
Mark Teixeira, 1, 1.56%
Jason Heyward, 1, 1.56%
Ryan Braun, 1, 1.56%
Highest No Selection on page 2 with streak of 20, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

Nyjer Morgan – What happened to his “suspension” I know he “met” with Bob Watson. Are they waiting for him to hit Bud Selig in the face with a whipped cream pie before his suspension takes effect? I’t would be ashamed if his suspension carried over into 2011 as it could hurt the Pirates chances of contending for the Central Division title. LOL……….:)
Monday Sept 13
BTS – Jeff Baker of Cubs who hits lefties big time and should lead off tonight for Cubs.
HR – Pujols looked good last night v. Hudson – I’m afraid of what he could do to Jeff Samarija of Cubs tonight. I’m suggesting Samarija wear a batting helmet on the mound tonight or have that batting practice screen in front of him. He could get hurt.
Survivor – Cards – See above
Looks like Dave took the day off(?).

TMZ News Flash via MLB
—–Bob Watson suspended for 2 weeks as Nyger Morgan was videoed detailing Watson’s Lexus in the MLB underground parking garage. The drealocks may have covered for him but he was wearing his Pirate cap.
—–Comish Bud Selig ruled that Albert Pujols will not have to bat from the left side of the plate tonight when he faces Jeff Samarija of Cubs.
—–The Las Vegas over – under on the distance of Pujols first homerun tonight v. Samarija is 450 feet. Warning signs have been posted in the LF upper deck to beware of baseballs traveling near the speed of light when Pujols bats tonight.
Get more details at tmz.com

correction: Morgan was wearing his Nats hat.

Dave – Any chance you would take on “guest columnists” for the last few weeks of the season for your daily commentary? At this point a little comedy could only help!

@dragbunt. Glad you cleared that up. I was about to run to the Pirates personnel pages to see if Morgan was traded last night.
@btsplayer. My new system picked Victorino based on four things 1) Phillies score 4+ runs, 2) He’s hot this past week, 3) hits pitcher very well & 4) will get max ABs. I went with him
Some levity… I was listening to sound bites, on the radio, from the STL/ATL game last night. To me, Joe Morgan (play-by-play announcer) sounds a lot like the Family Guy tv-show character Cleveland Brown.

Hey, I made the Top2500 again this year, page 62. If this were several weeks/months ago, I’d be happy. But almost a sick joke this late into the season with a streak of 7. Oh well, still testing new theories/strategies.

@dragbunt. Late reply — got the “submission error: too many in too short of time, please try later” message. Hate that one!
Quite often. I feel that Orel thinks Joe thinks pitchers are about as talented atheletes as 3rd string coach-pitch kids. Seems there’s always a discussion about which takes more talent: pitching or hitting. Kind of like comparing Billiards to Bowling IMO?

Hey, Dragbunt, I have delayed too long offering you thanks for something you recommended two or three months ago. For anyone who doesn’t know about it, here’s what you do: Click on Schedule at the top mlb.com’s home page (don’t worry about the options it offers, just click on it). You then will see the current day’s and next two day’s games with the probable starting pitchers. Put your curser on the pitcher’s name, and an approximately 50-word overview of the pitcher’s season and recent performances pops up (almost infinite details are of course available at the team’s websites, under stats). I, as a Reds fan in a for-me rare playoff chase, use it almost every day just to get a quick report on the pitcher the Reds are about to face.

And, for the heck of it, without going into almost infinite details (see above), I have dubbed Nelson Cruz a Silver Bullet Lock of Multiple Lifetimes for tomorrow (Tuesday). Pick him.

?Professor Pete

lav – Do you sense a tension in the booth on Sunday night between HOF Joe Morgan and CY Young Winner Orel Herhesier? I do.

lav – Do you sense a tension in the booth on Sunday night between HOF Joe Morgan and CY Young Winner Orel Herhesier? I do.

Professor Pete – Good to see your post.
I’ve been experimenting, with some success, when picking Cubs or White Sox players. But, when you post your Lock of a Lifetime Pick, I take note as the chance of that player getting a hit is about the same a Tulo getting a hit in a day game. My BTS pick tomorrow is Neslon Cruz.

Professor Pete — My analysis/system says to pick STL Pujols or Rasmus. However, since it is forecasted rain (I live in the area), I will take the 2nd pick which concurs with yours: Cruz or Vlad. If you reply, I know avg-vs-pitcher is bad for Pujols/Vlad, but analysis indicates not a player in those games. I’ll be watching to see if my little app is wrong.

However, if no rain, Pujols will be my pick tomorrow.

Hmmm, both Pujols/Rasmus 0-fers tonight bumped them down on depth chart…. Now Holliday/Pujols is looking like the STL pick for tomorrow. Will Pujols play? Sore ankle, HBP tonight? Check rotoworld tomorrow for those that care.

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 19 or greater, totalling 64 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 23 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 64
XXXAlbert Pujols, 13, 20.31% (1st)
***Shane Victorino, 11, 17.19% (1st, 4th)
***Adrian Beltre, 7, 10.94% (5th) (46.88% of picks are in the top 3; only -0.05% change from yesterday in the top 3)
***Omar Infante, 3, 4.69%
Vernon Wells, 3, 4.69%
Billy Butler, 3, 4.69%
Placido Polanco, 3, 4.69%
***Matt Holliday, 2, 3.13%
XXXIchiro Suzuki, 2, 3.13%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 3.13% (20-game hit streak and 18-game hit streak)
***Jayson Werth, 2, 3.13%
XXXKelly Johnson, 1, 1.56% (1st)
***Robinson Cano, 1, 1.56%
XXXJose Bautista, 1, 1.56%
XXXAngel Pagan, 1, 1.56%
XXXMartin Prado, 1, 1.56%
***Miguel Tejada, 1, 1.56%
XXXChase Utley, 1, 1.56%
XXXRickie Weeks, 1, 1.56%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 1.56%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 1.56%
XXXMark Teixeira, 1, 1.56%
XXXJason Heyward, 1, 1.56%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 1.56%
Highest No Selection on page 2 with streak of 20, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 19 or greater, totalling 64 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 23 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 64
XXXAlbert Pujols, 13, 20.31% (1st)
***Shane Victorino, 11, 17.19% (1st, 4th)
***Adrian Beltre, 7, 10.94% (5th) (46.88% of picks are in the top 3; only -0.05% change from yesterday in the top 3)
***Omar Infante, 3, 4.69%
***Vernon Wells, 3, 4.69%
XXXBilly Butler, 3, 4.69%
***Placido Polanco, 3, 4.69%
***Matt Holliday, 2, 3.13%
XXXIchiro Suzuki, 2, 3.13%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 3.13% (20-game hit streak and 18-game hit streak)
***Jayson Werth, 2, 3.13%
XXXKelly Johnson, 1, 1.56% (1st)
***Robinson Cano, 1, 1.56%
XXXJose Bautista, 1, 1.56%
XXXAngel Pagan, 1, 1.56%
XXXMartin Prado, 1, 1.56%
***Miguel Tejada, 1, 1.56%
XXXChase Utley, 1, 1.56%
XXXRickie Weeks, 1, 1.56%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 1.56%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 1.56%
XXXMark Teixeira, 1, 1.56%
XXXJason Heyward, 1, 1.56%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 1.56%
Highest No Selection on page 2 with streak of 20, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

So with the last game going final, we have just 36 people left in contention for $10,000.

The reset rate today was a shockingly high 43.75%, despite 5 of the top 7 picks coming through.

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