Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, September 16

480x270_Konerko.jpg

Oh, hey there.

Yeah, it’s me — Dave.

Sorry, I know it’s been awkward lately, posting without analysis, reading your comments with no comments back.

I’ve been selfish, I know. But we can move past this. We are stronger than this.

This is what Beat the Streak is all about.

Because if you thought it was still impossible for someone to take home
the $3,000,000 grand prize, you’ve been sorely mistaken (sort of).

You see, our leader, “mattgolbeck”, currently has a 36-game streak after Joe Mauer’s fun night at the park.

As things currently stand, the regular season would end on October 3,
which means Golbeck would end the season with (at best) a 54-game
streak.

However, given the state of the NL West, NL East and Wild Card, where
the Padres, Giants, Rockies, Phillies and Braves are all within 2.5
games of each other, there’s a chance of an end-of-season tiebreaker
game.

Like, three of them.

So with that in mind, we’ll be pumping out the blog as per norm until Golbeck is officially eliminated. Or not.

And as if that wasn’t enough of an incentive, “stealth47″ is rocking a seven-game homer streak in Home Run Beat the Streak.

We’re back, baby!

Time for Thursday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Matt Kemp: .391 AVG (9-for-23) lifetime vs. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez

? Paul Konerko: .370 AVG (10-for-27) lifetime vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

? Juan Pierre: .455 AVG (5-for-14) lifetime vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Adam LaRoche: .500 AVG (4-for-8) lifetime vs. Reds starter Edinson Volquez

You’ll thank me later…

? Andre Ethier: .167 AVG (4-for-24) lifetime vs. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez

? Rafael Furcal: .176 AVG (3-for-17) lifetime vs. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez

Top MLB streakers

? Michael Brantley: 15 games

? David Murphy: 13 games

? Nick Markakis: 11 games

? Vladimir Guerrero: 10 games

? Ryan Spilborghs: 10 games 

23 Comments

@champ88: “Who would you recommend picking to not play?
SF Jose Guillen. Will not be playing for next few days per rotoworld. Pinch hit possibility as close to nil as you can get without being on the DL.
… Jose Guillen was given a pain-killing injection in his neck Wednesday. Guillen also underwent an MRI and is not in the Giants’ lineup against the Dodgers. He could be sidelined for the next several games.

60-gameday season? I’m a non-believer. If 3 playoffs needed (doubtful), maybe all be played same day or over two days, but not 3. The playoffs scheduled to start Oct 6th & MLB will do everything in their power to prevent it from being pushed back while giving teams at least 1 day off to deal with logistics

60-gameday season? Ummm, meant 3 extra game days.

Oh, welcome back Dave. Missed your wit & humor.

Anybody have any ideas about who to pick in HR BTS? I haven’t had a Homer in 28 days and counting and I’m hoping to end it today or something. Thanks.

Yesterday, I suggested Konerko for BTS today “for sooo many reasons”. Here are those reasons. Only a cruel BTS god can prevent the inevitable.
1) 8 for 11 vs Pavano, this year
2) 10 for 22 last 6 games
3) 300+ avgs vs righties, home & night games
4) 6-game hit streak, 323 season avg
5) Twins 8 games up in division, don’t need to pitch around him

@vinny1979 – And I thought a 17 game homer-less run was bad (not counting my did not pick period in home run BTS which would make it much longer)
I think Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are the 2 best choices for that game today as there are only 6 games today. David Wright and Hideki Matsui are my next 2 best guesses. Hopefully you picked one of them as the lock time is past. With that being said, I have no idea who’ll come through today and who won’t.

I went with Votto which is the most popular pick but we will see.

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 22 or greater, totalling 24 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 11 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 24
Joey Votto, 8, 33.33% (2nd, 3rd)
Paul Konerko, 6, 25.00% (Leader, 5th)
Joe Mauer, 2, 8.33%
Miguel Tejada, 1, 4.17% (4th)
Jay Bruce, 1, 4.17%
Adrian Gonzalez, 1, 4.17%
Jose Reyes, 1, 4.17%
Hideki Matsui, 1, 4.17%
Albert Pujols, 1, 4.17%
Stephen Drew, 1, 4.17%
Scott Rolen, 1, 4.17%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 3 with streak of 17, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 22 or greater, totalling 24 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 11 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 24
Joey Votto, 8, 33.33% (2nd, 3rd)
Paul Konerko, 6, 25.00% (Leader, 5th) (57.33% of picks are in the top 2)
Joe Mauer, 2, 8.33%
Miguel Tejada, 1, 4.17% (4th)
Jay Bruce, 1, 4.17%
Adrian Gonzalez, 1, 4.17%
Jose Reyes, 1, 4.17%
Hideki Matsui, 1, 4.17%
Albert Pujols, 1, 4.17%
Stephen Drew, 1, 4.17%
Scott Rolen, 1, 4.17%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 3 with streak of 17, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

I guess the majority of the current leaders are not blog readers.

The do-not-pick MVP trio has 15 of the 24 picks, for a share of 62.50%!

I guess the majority of the current leaders are not blog readers.

The do-not-pick MVP trio has 15 of the 24 picks, for a share of 62.50%!

Well, Votto and Bruce just both got hits, so 9 of the 24 people have alredy moved on to tomorrow.

Strike that.

10 have moved on with Drew’s infield single.

And I hope everyone stocked up on their Nyjer Morgan picks for the next 9 days, as it has just been announced that he is going to serve his suspension Friday.

Survivor: 1 of the remaining 3 fell today, picking CIN. The other two MIN & LAA picks are no guaranteed wins at all.
If no extra gamedays this year, that competition may be over after this weekend, needing 29+ wins to tie/beat the season leader.

BTS – Juan Pierre – The guy has a knack of getting a hit one way or another
HR – Votto (Failed)
Survivor – Mets over Bucs – Morton is having a terrible season
Welcome back Dave!

Wow. Paul Konerko gets hit in face 1 AB, stays in game, then comes up and homers next AB.

Here are some stats on Cano:
1) 10 for 21 past 5 years vs Millwood
2) 5 for 7, this year vs Millwood
3) 11 for last 27 ABs
4) Hit in 9 of last 10 games with 372 avg
5) 342 avg vs righties, 335 away games, 346 night games
So who do you think is my pick for BTS tomorrow? Duh!

Beat the Streak: Joey Votto (success)
Home run: Paul Konerko (success)
Survivor: Mets (success)

@champ88. Regarding who not to play to day (1st post at top). I mentioned rotoworld said Jose Guillen (SF) wouldn’t & would be sidelined for several days…. Guess who’s in the lineup today? Yep, Guillen. But he did single in the 4th; at least rotoworld’s bad info didn’t screw anyone that picked him as a “safe pick”.

My earlier post for home run BTS:
I think Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are the 2 best choices for that game today as there are only 6 games today. David Wright and Hideki Matsui are my next 2 best guesses. Hopefully you picked one of them as the lock time is past. With that being said, I have no idea who’ll come through today and who won’t.
Home run BTS:
Bold=success
Italic=fail

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 22 or greater, totalling 24 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 11 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 24
***Joey Votto, 8, 33.33% (2nd, 3rd)
***Paul Konerko, 6, 25.00% (Leader, 5th) (57.33% of picks are in the top 2)
***Joe Mauer, 2, 8.33%
XXXMiguel Tejada, 1, 4.17% (4th)
***Jay Bruce, 1, 4.17%
XXXAdrian Gonzalez, 1, 4.17%
XXXJose Reyes, 1, 4.17%
***Hideki Matsui, 1, 4.17%
***Albert Pujols, 1, 4.17%
***Stephen Drew, 1, 4.17%
—Scott Rolen, 1, 4.17%
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 3 with streak of 17, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

*** = Player successful
XXX = Player failed
— = Player did not play

So with the last game going final, we have just 21 people left in contention for $10,000.

The reset rate today was a miniscule 12.50%, when taking into account how few games there were to pick from.

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