Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, Sept. 17-19

480x270_Tulo.gif

Get out that limbo stick because it looks like “mattgoldbeck” wants to dance.

Our streak leader and only remaining hope is now rocking a 37-game streak after Paul Konerko’s big night at the yard.

All Goldbeck needs to do is string together a 20 game streak and pray
for a three-way tie atop the NL West and $3,000,000 will be his.

That doesn’t sound too improbable or anything.

Speaking of Paul Konerko, Pauly Walnuts’ golden bat went yard Thursday
night to extend our Home Run Beat the Streak Leader, “stealth47″, to an
eight-game streak.

If “stealth47″ can successfully predict a homer for tonight, we’ll have a two-way tie atop the overall HR BTS leaderboard.

Yes, things are getting saucy here in Streakland.

Time for the weekend’s picks

Friday

? Chase Utley: .480 AVG (12-for-25) lifetime vs. Nationals starter Jason Marquis

? Robinson Cano: .440 AVG (11-for-25) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Kevin Millwood

? Adrian Gonzalez: .389 AVG (7-for-18) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse

Saturday

? Ryan Zimmerman: .500 AVG (8-for-16) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick

? Joe Mauer: .462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Dallas Braden

? Carlos Beltran: .373 AVG (25-for-67) lifetime vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson

Sunday

? Shin-Soo Choo: .545 AVG (6-for-11) lifetime vs. Royals starter Luke Hochevar

? Ichiro Suzuki: .400 AVG (8-for-20) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Tommy Hunter

? Adrian Beltre: .391 AVG (9-for-23) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum

Feeling kinda spicy?

Friday

? Jack Cust: .533 AVG (8-for-15) lifetime vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

Saturday

? Jose Lopez: .360 AVG (9-for-25) lifetime vs. Rangers starter Cliff Lee

Sunday

? Mark Reynolds: .615 AVG (8-for-13) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Zach Duke


You’ll thank me later …

Friday

? David Wright: .100 AVG (1-for-10) lifetime vs. Braves starter Tommy Hanson

? Omar Infante: .154 AVG (2-for-13) lifetime vs. Mets starter Jon Niese

Saturday

? Paul Konerko: .118 AVG (4-for-34) since lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

? Billy Butler: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Indians starter Justin Masterson

Sunday

? Brandon Phillips: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Astros starter Brett Myers

? Troy Tulowitzki: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw

Top MLB streakers

? Michael Brantley: 16 games

? David Murphy: 13 games

? Nick Markakis: 11 games

? Vladimir Guerrero: 10 games

? Ryan Spilborghs: 10 games 

47 Comments

BTS – Cano – lav he looks good!
HR – Cano
Survivor – Phils

Will Konerko play? He HR’s last night in his 2nd at bat but in his first AB he was hit in the lip (glancing blow) by a Pavano inside and up pitch. They wanted to take him out of the game but he was adament and stayed in. Lip was swelling.

Survivor. Only 1 player left that can tie/beat the leader’s 29-gamer, with 17 gamedays remaining, unless extra games are appended to the regular season. Will redenbacher1990 make it thru the weekend?

Hey everybody. Cano is my pick in BTS but Yanksgiants who do you like in HR BTS. I have Tex but not too sure.

Possible DNPs for Friday & pinch hitter potential:
FLA H.Ramirez, NYY N.Swisher(maybe), CLE J.Donald, MIN J.Kubel, LAD J.Carroll, LAA E.Aybar, WSH N.Morgan (7-8 days)
Those are all the early announcements. Check again before games lock
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.aspx?sport=MLB&filter_major_minor=MAJ

@vinny. Considerations may be TB Pena, NYY A-Rod/Posada. All 3 hit pitchers well, HR-wise. TB more homer-friendly. Also, CWS/HOU parks are very homer-friendly. But I don’t play that game, so don’t follow its stats with any enthusiasm.

30 mins before locks. More potential DNPs for Friday:
CWS P.Konerko, NYY N.Swisher(confirmed), MIN D.Span

@vinny1979 I have Cano tonight for BTS but I’m trying to decide between picking Cano for HR BTS or putting it on pause with Nyjer Morgan. Cano has only 1 HR in 25 ABs off Kevin Millwood but he is capable of hitting one tonight. The qustion is will he? 12 minutes to decide…

@vinny 1979 I’m going with Cano in both games.
Beat the Streak: Robinson Cano
Home run: Robinson Cano
Survivor: Phillies

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 23 or greater, totalling 20 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 8 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 20
Robinson Cano, 10, 50.00% (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th)
Chase Utley, 3 , 15.00% (5th)
Adrian Gonzalez, 2, 10.00%
Ichiro Suzuki, 1 , 5.00% (5th)
Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 5.00%
Nick Swisher, 1, 5.00%
Adrian Beltre, 1, 5.00%
Placido Polanco, 1, 5.00%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

Beat the Streak: Robinson Cano (success)
Home run: Robinson Cano (fail)
Survivor: Phillies (success)

Congratulations to those who took A-Rod, Jose Batista or Matt Holliday in Home run. My highest home run streak remains at 2.

Well I’m up to 30 straight days without a homer. Any ideas or thoughts for Sat. Lav you were correct with A-Rod.

Saturday’s BTS pick: Vlad Guerrero
1) *Awesome last 9 games batting 400+
2) **Batting 352 for September
3) Hits lefties very well at 350
4) Hits Vargas well, 2 for 3 ABs this year
*=8th inning to start in SEA & TEX is getting no-hit. So not so awesome that game
**=Adjusted Sept avg for an 0-3 night vs SEA Friday

Oops, jinxed SEA. Top of 8th & Nelson Cruz breaks up no-hitter with a lead-off homer.

Adrian Gonzalez looks good vs. Suppan tomorrow, but LaRusa has the taste of blood now & will want to go for the kill. Not comfortable with his knack for walking/pitching around the best hitters. If he doesn’t get a hit in 1st 2 ABs, may not see another pitch to hit. Yeah, no guts no glory, I know.

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 23 or greater, totalling 20 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 8 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 20
***Robinson Cano, 10, 50.00% (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th)
XXXChase Utley, 3 , 15.00% (5th)
***Adrian Gonzalez, 2, 10.00%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 1 , 5.00% (5th)
***Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 5.00%
XXXNick Swisher, 1, 5.00%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 5.00%
***Placido Polanco, 1, 5.00%
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

BTS – Guerrero looks good BUT Tulo is playing a day game!
HR – Why not – Tulo
Survivor – Rays

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 24 or greater, totalling 16 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 10 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 16
Ryan Zimmerman, 4, 25.00% (Leader)
Robinson Cano, 2, 12.50% (2nd)
Carlos Gonzalez, 2, 12.50% (3rd and 4th)
Adrian Gonzalez, 2, 12.50%
Miguel Cabrera, 1, 6.25% (5th)
Ichiro Suzuki, 1, 6.25%
Adrian Beltre, 1, 6.25%
Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 6.25%
Carl Crawford, 1, 6.25%
Hanley Ramirez, 1, 6.25%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 8 with streak of 14, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

@dragbunt: “BTS – Guerrero looks good BUT Tulo is playing a day game!”
Good point. I’m using a modified system I used to get me to a 20-gamer. So far, 12 for 12. I want to follow it religiously for rest of season so I can tweak as needed. It suggested Vlad/Cruz today & I took Vlad ’cause of his lefty-killing abilities. Though Tulo hasn’t failed daygame picks all year, yet!

Another good pick seems to have been Danny Valencia on the Twins.

Hits a litttle low in the order, but he is hitting .461 at home this year and .421 against lefties.

Mad that I overlooked that.

lav and champion – You guys are on a roll!
Valencia goes deep!
Please post Sunday when you look it over.
Tulo in a day game but v. a tough LA pitcher!

Geez, no respect with the “d” in the name…..

How could he be any hotter?
Tulo adds a double in the 3rd inning to his blast in the first.
What the heck!
I’m going with him again on Sunday.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This post confuses me.

What I did notice today though is there are a lot of overall mediocre pitchers going who either pitch really good or really bad.

That holds for the 2 opponents we are facing and also for Justin Masterson.

Hey Matt, our current leader. If you get to 43 or better and win, come back next year and let us know how MLB contacted you, when they paid you, and most importantly, whether you are allowed to play again next year. A weird thing is that I never see a previous winner in the BTS standings the following year…. especially since the grand prize seems to get much larger the following year.
Adding a “d” in your name is a typo on Dave’s part I’m sure. If you respond to his “bio” request, make sure you tease him about that

SURVIVOR MAY BE DONE!!!
redenbacher1990 with a 14-gamer & 16 games left failed to make a selection. The next highest needs extra gamedays. That means, barring extra days, brentandcam with a 29-gamer has won that contest.

Tulo homers yet again. What’s he trying to do, catch Sir Albert? Someone could probably ride Tulo to the end of the season & end up with a nice streak!

Another HR for Tulo.

3 for 3.

“Hey Matt, our current leader. If you get to 43 or better and win, come back next year and let us know how MLB contacted you, when they paid you, and most importantly, whether you are allowed to play again next year. A weird thing is that I never see a previous winner in the BTS standings the following year…. especially since the grand prize seems to get much larger the following year.”

isn’t karatzia the one who got to 48 one year?

he’s still alive for this year right now.

and Matt: could you tell us how many hits you have total so far in your streak, so we can see if these people playing for ties are still in contention?

Evening Update:

Robinson Cano: 2 move on: 1 for 1 so far
Carlos Gonzalez: 2 move on: 1 for 3
Adrian Gonzalez: 2 move on: 1 for 3
Troy Tulowitzki: 1 moves on: 3 for 5

Miguel Cabrera: 1 eliminated: 0 for 5

Ryan Zimmerman: hit by pitch so far
Ichiro Suzuki: 9 PM start
Adrian Beltre: did not hit yet
Carl Crawford: 0 for 1 so far
Hanley Ramirez: out of starting lineup: needs a pinch-hit to stay in contention

Beltre doubled in his 1st at-bat.

Carl Crawford singles in his 2nd at-bat.

Another 2 moves on.

So just Ichiro, Zimmerman, and Hanley left to watch for tonight.

Beat the Streak: Ryan Zimmerman (success)
Home run: Nick Swisher (fail)
Survivor: Yankees (Success)

Sunday’s BTS pick. C.Figgins. Without including tonite’s stats (game in play):
Has overall horrible numbers this year, but ….
1) Over 500 avg for past 6 games
2) 4 for 8 over past 5 years vs pitcher, 4 for 5 this year
3) Hitting 370+ avg during September
4) 9 game hitting streak

Day of rest for several players Sunday:
NYY A-Rod/Teixeira, PIT Jones, MIN Span/Kubel, WSH Maxwell, SF Renderia
Likely out for season: LAA Ayabar, CHC Soto, OAK Crisp, PIT Milledge
Changed BTS pick from Figgins to Zimmerman. Don’t trust streaky sub-par players, especially ones that walk often. Give me a consistent 260-280 player & a different story. Zimmerman consistently 300 in all offensive categories.

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 24 or greater, totalling 16 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 10 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 16
***Ryan Zimmerman, 4, 25.00% (Leader)
***Robinson Cano, 2, 12.50% (2nd)
***Carlos Gonzalez, 2, 12.50% (3rd and 4th)
***Adrian Gonzalez, 2, 12.50%
XXXMiguel Cabrera, 1, 6.25% (5th)
***Ichiro Suzuki, 1, 6.25%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 6.25%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 6.25%
***Carl Crawford, 1, 6.25%
—Hanley Ramirez, 1, 6.25%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 8 with streak of 14, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

*** = Player successful
XXX = Player failed
— = Player did not play

Beat the Streak: Ichiro Suzuki
Home run: Albert Pujols
Survivor: Rangers

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 25 or greater, totalling 14 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 7 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 14
Robinson Cano, 5, 35.71% (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 28.57% (Leader, 5th)
Ryan Braun, 1, 7.14% (5th)
Omar Infante, 1, 7.14%
Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 7.14%
Stephen Drew, 1, 7.14%
Josh Hamilton, 1, 7.14%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 25 or greater, totalling 14 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 7 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 14
Robinson Cano, 5, 35.71% (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 28.57% (Leader, 5th)
Ryan Braun, 1, 7.14% (5th)
Omar Infante, 1, 7.14%
Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 7.14%
Stephen Drew, 1, 7.14%
Josh Hamilton, 1, 7.14%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

Well, Zimmerman reset me & no longer can surpass my season high. I’m off to enjoy football & tidy up my BTS system for next year & analyze its suggestions.
The positive side of today’s failure is that the system selected a good game for my pick to get a hit: 6 runs scored & 11 hits. The downside is my pick went 0-5 (only starter without a hit) & I attribute that to either his plunking yesterday or just late in the season (pitching carefully, tired, division run, whatever).
Next year I’ll begin with the same theory: choose a game where you believe the team will score 4+ runs and/or get 8+ hits, pick the best/hottest player on that team, and high odds that your pick will have one of those hits if team performs as expected. Until then, c-ya.
Good luck to those in the hunt for the $10K.

Oh, p.s., I also need to learn to trust my system. Originally, I chickened out when Chone Figgins was suggested. So what does he do…. gets a hit on his 3rd AB. That’s going to be the toughest part: not over-thinking! And whatever system anyone applies to BTS, over-thinking will probably be the number one reason you go 0-fer during a good run.

And all streaks must come to an end I see. Ichiro terminates a few, but look at Tulo’s day-time streak… With game starting at 1:10 (local) and no hits, afraid that season long streak is over too. Then again, maybe he’ll get a 5th AB and continue it…

Triple “F” (as in fail) day
Beat the Streak: Ichiro Suzuki=F
Home run: Albert Pujols=F
Survivor: Rangers=F

With Ichiro’s 0-fer my beat the streak regular season is done I can no longer tie or beat my longest streak (17). This broke my 5th double digit streak of the year (11) and I was hoping for 20 which will have to wait until next season. This means the Oriole trick back in June when Jake Arrieta made is mlb debut in place of Jeremy Guthrie (and got Nick Swisher to go 0 fer) is officially the “CULPRIT” of the beat the streak season. I had already picked Robinson Cano for tomorrow, so tomorrow will be my last beat the streak pick of the 2010 regular season. Tomorrow I will list my final beat the streak results. If that wasn’t disappointing enough the Rangers still found a way to lose to the Mariners despite Ichiro’s 0 for making it a double whammy. That broke my 6 game survivor streak. However there are at least 14 game days left so I’m going to pick until I can no longer beat my highest survivor streak of the season (9). The least of the worries was Albert failing to homer.

My 2010 Beat the streak history up to this point:
successful picks – did not play picks – fail picks (O fers)
119 10 * ** 37
Of my 119 successful picks:
64 1 hit picks
38 2 hit picks
16 3 hit picks
3 4 hit picks
1 5 hit pick
—————-
*On April 21st I picked Ivan Rodriguez, and he went 0 for 0 but because he pinch hit and hit a sac fly he counts as a fail pick and my streak reset to 0 that night as a result.
**On August 3rd I picked Johnny Damon without knowing that the Tigers had a double header. He went 3 for 9 combined but all 3 hits were in game 2 so I stayed at 0.

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 25 or greater, totalling 14 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 7 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 14
***Robinson Cano, 5, 35.71% (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
XXXIchiro Suzuki, 4, 28.57% (Leader, 5th)
***Ryan Braun, 1, 7.14% (5th)
***Omar Infante, 1, 7.14%
***Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 7.14%
XXXStephen Drew, 1, 7.14%
—Josh Hamilton, 1, 7.14%
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

*** = Player successful
XXX = Player failed
—- = Player did not play

FINAL RESULTS:

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 25 or greater, totalling 14 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 7 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 14
***Robinson Cano, 5, 35.71% (2nd, 3rd, 4th)
XXXIchiro Suzuki, 4, 28.57% (Leader, 5th)
***Ryan Braun, 1, 7.14% (5th)
***Omar Infante, 1, 7.14%
***Carlos Gonzalez, 1, 7.14%
XXXStephen Drew, 1, 7.14%
—Josh Hamilton, 1, 7.14%
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 6 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

*** = Player successful
XXX = Player failed
—- = Player did not play

So with just 2 weeks left in the regular season, just 8 players remain in contention.

Good morning, everyone.
So talk about a tease yesterday.
I had a 3 game streak going in HR beat the Streak.
I picked Konerko for yesterday. Boy did I get teased. That was a dramatic game and Konerko almost got a HR before it diverted into foul territory.
He almost had the radio guys fooled too.
Now I’m back to zero.

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