Beat the Streak Report: Thursday, September 23
Oh, hello there …
? Pablo Sandoval: .500 AVG (11-for-22) lifetime vs. Nationals starter Jason Marquis
? Ian Kinsler: .414 AVG (12-for-29) lifetime vs. Angels starter Dan Haren
? Aaron Hill: .455 AVG (5-for-11) lifetime vs. Rays starter Wade Davis
Feeling kinda spicy?
? Chris Snyder: .529 AVG (9-for-17) lifetime vs. Royals starter Kyle Davies
You’ll thank me later…
? Andre Ethier: .150 AVG (3-for-20) lifetime vs. Reds starter Johnny Cueto
? Dan Uggla: .125 AVG (2-for-13) lifetime vs. Padres starter Tim Stauffer
Top MLB streakers
? Matt Holliday: 14 games
? Derek Jeter: 11 games
? Joey Votto: 10 games
? Carlos Gonzalez: 9 games
Beat the Streak Report 
Beat the Streak is over for me in the regular season due to not being able to reach a longer streak and 3 of my last 4 picks O fer.
My OFFICIAL FINAL 2010 Beat the streak history for the regular season is on yesterday’s blog. My reasons for stopping are listed there as well.
Home run: Carlos Gonzalez
Survivor: Mariners – I’m back at 0 thanks to the late collapse by the A’s making today the last day to start a survivor streak and reach my goal of 12.
Dave – Is there going to be a post season game? If yes, when will details be posted?
Congrats to hammann on his 21 game streak! He leads the
BTS Analysts Group by a mile with vinny, dragbunt and champion_88 each only able to muster 12 game streaks this season.
For what it’s worth (not alot) I made 200 hits, 100 wins in Survivor but HR game only 30+ HRs
“My picks have gone 206 for 654 for a .315 average. (not counting sac flys) My picks over the last 4 days are 1 for 17 .059 dropping my average from .322 to .315.
NO more beat the streak picks in the regular season for me, the blogs are dead, my average goes down and i can’t get a bigger streak anyway.”
You could try to set a new career high for hits.
It is important to play out all the games, so you can get a true sense of where the record stands.
So in the future, you do not have to arbitrarily choose between 206 and 220 hits as the record (Your hit total assuming a .315 average with 4 AB each day for the rest of the season, excluding potential tiebreakers.)
What you are doing is akin to a batter leading in a batting title race and then just sitting the last weekend of the season or a team out of contention not even giving any effort, because their games are now “meaningless.”
In other words, it is very unprofessional.
Besides, do you want to have your 1 for 17 slump now or in the playoffs, where you could win something and set a new career high for yourself?
The slump should be able to run its course before the playoffs start.
Felix Hernandez pitches a 2 hit gem and still loses. Stupid lowly Mariners can’t score a single run off a pitcher that had not pitched much this year and had not won since early last season.
BUMS
@champion_88 I’m not a pro and there is no reward for most hits. I think the 1 for 17 slump is telling me to quit picking so I’ve stopped. As for the postseason are there going to be postseason beat the streak and survivor games or is this a NO waiting to shock us all. There is nothing saying that a postseason beat the streak game or a postseason survivor game is coming soon like there was last year. That would be even more depressing practicing for a game not even taking place.
Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 29 or greater, totalling 2 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 2 different players picked.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 2
Shin-Soo Choo, 1, 50.00% (Leader)
Ichiro Suzuki, 1, 50.00% (2nd)
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 15, now eliminated
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated
“@champion_88 I’m not a pro and there is no reward for most hits. I think the 1 for 17 slump is telling me to quit picking so I’ve stopped. As for the postseason are there going to be postseason beat the streak and survivor games or is this a NO waiting to shock us all. There is nothing saying that a postseason beat the streak game or a postseason survivor game is coming soon like there was last year. That would be even more depressing practicing for a game not even taking place.”
Well I meant pro as in dedicated BTS players over casual players.
They usually put up the contest 1 week before it is planned to start, so you should expect to see the contest be opened next Wednesday.
Last year was the first year they did a Postseason BTS, but Postseason Survivor has occurred annually since 2002, so I would assume they would do it again this year.
Post Season Games:
You have got to gets hits/Survivor wins from day 1 or 2 and begin a steak to have any chance of winning. If you have an 0-fer on day 3 or 4 – you are “toasted.”
Prizes last year? Were they “mininal”?
HR totals for 2009 vs. 2010
Does anyone have access to data? How many total MLB HR’s hit in 2009 vs. total HR’s to date in 2010.
My actual pick data line for BTS is: 209/641, .326 batting average, 121 successful days, 40 fail days, 6 days in which my pick did not play, and 2 days where I did not put a pick in for some reason.
I hit .350 from June 1st on, when I began using a new formula, as opposed to just .277 from May 31st back.
My potential line is the line I should have if I did not make any stupid picks and if I knew all my picks would be starting all year.
It will take quite a bit more work to know where my potential line stands, as it involves digging into my daily analyses and looking at where I noted that I made a dumb pick for the day.
“Post Season Games:
You have got to gets hits/Survivor wins from day 1 or 2 and begin a steak to have any chance of winning. If you have an 0-fer on day 3 or 4 – you are “toasted.”
Prizes last year? Were they “mininal”?
HR totals for 2009 vs. 2010
Does anyone have access to data? How many total MLB HR’s hit in 2009 vs. total HR’s to date in 2010.”
That is not necessarily true.
Last year was the first for Postseason BTS, so there is not much history to refer to, but the 1 game that Jeter went 0 for, nearly half the leaderboard fell.
And people might keep picking him on his postseason performance last year, so that might help thin the board out more.
For Postseason Survivor, there seemed to be a lot of “obvious” picks in the World Series last year, so the guy just racked up like 5 favorites in a row.
2008 was a much weaker year. A lot of people kept going to the Rays every game in the World Series. I think the winner had only 13 games.
Which would have been only 12 games, if not for Torre’s absolutely asinine decision to bring in the long reliever in a 1-run game and promptly blow the lead.
The big key for Postseason Survivor unfortunately is out of your control: get long series.
According to last season’s playoff schedule, you could have as few anywhere from 14-25 picking days, depending on if the series were all sweeps, went maximum distance, or something in between.
If you have an 0 for on day 4 with 14 picking days, 10 wins or a 10-game hitting streak is probably not going to stack up with the leader, but with 25 picking days, you could still have a 21-game winning streak or a 21-game hitting streak, which would break the current records for both postseason contests.
My actual pick line for Survivor is 58-42 with 1 rainout on September 3rd.
I picked in a split doubleheader on September 6th, so my actual decisions line is 57-42 for a .576 winning percentage.
For some reason, I didn’t start putting picks in for Survivor this year until June 14th and 2 days in May.
Originally, I wanted to focus on 1 contest this year, but after seeing everyone else post about it, I could not resist anymore and dove back in.
But my record took a big drop as a result.
Just collected my 210th hit and 122nd successful day with Mike Aviles’ HR in the 1st!
My current survivor record is 103-66, 1PPD
FINAL RESULTS:
Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 29 or greater, totalling 2 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 2 different players picked.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 2
XXXShin-Soo Choo, 1, 50.00% (Leader)
***Ichiro Suzuki, 1, 50.00% (2nd)
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 15, now eliminated
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated
*** = Player succeeds
XXX = Player fails
— = Player does not play
Does anyone know in which direction does the wind blow in Wrigley Field to be blowing out?
I noticed this quote in the weather forecast for Chicago for tomorrow afternoon:
“Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.”
Just not sure if that means blowing out or in?
champion_88:
Put this on your list of notes:
Wrigley Field – West wind blows out toward RF, today it is a nice wind that will make fly balls to RF carry well.
Wind blowing SW at Wrigley Field means the wind is blowing toward CF – directly from home plate toward CF.
Wind blowing South means balls to LF will carry well.
Winds N or E or NE means wind is blowing in toward home plate and HR should be few in any.
I’ve got Pujos, first time picking him this year, in BTS and Holliday in HR BTS.
This is my source for ballpark weather conditions:
http://www.weather.com/activities/events/mlb/mlb_team_schedules_seo.html
Home run: Albert Pujols – Today is the last day to start a HR streak and still be able to reach 11.
Survivor Yankees
Yesterday’s picks
Home run: Carlos Gonzalez (success)
Survivor: Mariners (fail)
With the year being over for me, I went against my MVP never pick Mauer, Votto or Pujols (MVP) and took Sir Albert today. As mentioned by yanksgiantsdevils he is 0-1 on a check swing 3rd strike with three walks and two runs scored. His last chance of the day will be AB #5 in the top of the 9th. Maybe I should take Votto on Sat and if he is playing Mauer on Sunday. At least I have the Cards in BTS today and they are beating the Cubs into submission 7-1.
Pujols gets walked 3 times, then strikes out. I should have kept Nick Swisher. It looks like I’m back to 0 in home run.
Do you get the Steve Moore “In the Bleachers” Cartoon in your home town paper? The one today was great. It is a baseball scoreboard with this on it:
Teams Innings 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Final Score
PESSIMISTS 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
OPTIMISTS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9
This guy is killer funny on a daily basis!
Sir Albert puts his first ball of the day in play and hits a sharp single to left in the top of the 9th. My little streak advances.
Where the hell is the new blog entry?
Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 30 or greater, totalling 1 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 1 different players picked.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 1
Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 100.00% (Leader)
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
I am sorry that I pulled this data so late that I was unable to get the top no selection for the day. I even felt so bad that I checked the top 50 pages manually frantically looking for a no selection, but it appears they already removed all of them.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated
Of course Nick Swisher homers. Why did I switch to Pujols who gets walked not once, not twice but 3 TIMES! Another awful switch.
Coward Cubs walking Pujols THREE TIMES! And Swisher homers. I hate these games.
FINAL RESULTS:
Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 30 or greater, totalling 1 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 1 different players picked.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 1
Troy Tulowitzki, 1, 100.00% (Leader)
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
I am sorry that I pulled this data so late that I was unable to get the top no selection for the day. I even felt so bad that I checked the top 50 pages manually frantically looking for a no selection, but it appears they already removed all of them.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated
dragbunt104 standing in for Dave – Saturday Sept 25th
OH HELLO THERE:
Konerko 11-23 v. lefty Kazmir – PK had a HR Friday night
Pence 4-11 v. Duke of Bucs
Thome 8-23 v. Tigers Bonderman
ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY?
Aramis Ramirez 14-23 v. Cards Carpenter – AR had a HR vs. Adam Wainwright on Friday
STAY AWAY – STAY FAR AWAY
Sin Soo Choo v. KC’s Grienke
Good luck to all today!
CORRECTION:
Aramis Ramirez is 14 for 43 vs. Cards Carpenter
So glad I switched to Konerko from Pujols yesterday!
My system did not come up with Pujols. I just thought those winds were REALLY high, so I considered him.
So my streak is now up to 2.
With 9 pick days left, I can still win the $10,000 outright.
Who did you pick today dragbunt?
Is Nick Swisher fully healthy now?
Thankfully, I switched to Konerko so he came through anyway, but I had considered Swisher at home originally.
You can still tie the leader though and potentially pass him with a tiebreaker game.
Home run: Jose Batista – I’m eliminated from HR after making the worst switch of all time. All the major HR picks came through except for 3 walk Pujols. I should have kept Nick Swisher.
Survivor: Phillies
BTS – Ichiro
HR – Konerko
Survivor – Cards who lost!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
ohhh, GREAT!
I guess I am going to be eliminated tonight then…….
I have noticed that your picks lose quite frequently and I bring a 2-game HR streak into Konerko tonight.
My Picks in HR – BTS are hunches and random at best.
PK has a chance don’t give up until the last man is out in the 9th. My longest streak of the year in HR BTS is 2.
champion – I put some names in my baseball cap and pulled out Pujols for HR BTS on Sunday – Beware!
It’s about time my HR BTS streak ended. I went 37 straight days without a homer and made a pick every single day. Tulo finally ended that tonight thanks to him going deep. I have Votto tomorrow and hopefully he is back full strength. I have Tulo in BTS. Just playing for fun to see how far I can get.
@dragbunt: I thought you had gone like 31 straight days without winning in the HR contest? That is why I said my pick was doomed.
With that said, there was clearly still analysis for your pick, since that would influence what names went into the baseball cap?
Or did you have all 254 starting hitters in that cap?
Home run: Mark Teixeira
Survivor: Twins (fail) I picked the Twins for the anti sweep and they get swept with Duensing losing to Porcello. Survivor is over as my winning % keeps going down. No matter who I pick I always lose. Last night the Phillies 11 game winning and the Mets 6 game losing streaks both ended. I can’t get a pick right no matter what and this is my worst ever losing streak with 5 consecutive losses.
Can we please stop hitting Jose Bautista???
Hit twice already!
yanks, who do you have in Survivor today?
champion – It was Vinny that went over 30 days in a row with no HR pick.
Pujols on Sunday – I saw that Samarijia was pitching for the Cubs and he is a fast ball pitcher who is eratic so I thought Pujols would be a good pick.
I had Phils in Survivor on Sunday. I’ve got 19 wins in Sept and I’m trying to hit 20.