Beat the Streak Report: April 11

Remember back in middle school gym when that one bully would always pants you in front of the whole class?

You’d come out of the locker room and start getting warmed up for Pickleball, and this guy would sneak up behind you and pull down your meshies so everyone could see your smiley-face Joe Boxers. This happened a solid three times per week for the duration of seventh grade.

The first couple days, he was just being mean. But after that, it was partially your own fault for not convincing your mom to buy you some gym shorts with a drawstring. And also your mom’s fault for not letting you go to the mall without her. Everyone else was allowed to … so unfair! I’m going to live with Joey’s parents! Wait, what?

Sorry to dredge up those deeply repressed memories – which definitely did not come from personal experience (always the pantser, never the pantsee!) — but the pantsing incident is pretty much exactly like picking Albert Pujols in BTS right now.

The first few times you got burned by the best player in the game, it was on him. But for the love of Allen Craig, Prince Albert has now taken 0-fers in five of his first nine games this season, including both Saturday and Sunday. He’s 5-for-35 (.143) overall with just one multi-hit effort to his name

Picking him is like walking into gym class with your shorts already around your knees: Maybe they won’t get pulled all the way down, but it’s quite the unnecessary risk.

The fellows below aren’t belt-and-suspenders safe — it is Monday after all — but, like a trusty pair of compression shorts, they should provide both comfort and support.

Monday’s picks

(Make a BTS pick)

 

Oh, hello there …

Todd Helton: .600 AVG (6-for-10) since ’06 vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey

• Kurt Suzuki: .389 AVG (7-for-18) since ’06 vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle

• Michael Bourn: .364 AVG (8-for-22) since ’06  vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster

Carlos Lee: .344 AVG (11-for-32) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster

Todd Helton and Carlos Lee — we’re taking the “back when you were in middle school …” theme all the way!

 

Feeling kinda spicy?

• Seth Smith: .444 AVG (4-for-9) since ’06  vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey

 

You’ll thank me later …

B.J. Upton: .133 AVG (2-for-15) since ’06 vs. Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka

Ian Kinsler: .143 AVG (2-for-14) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

Alex Rios: .188 AVG (3-for-16) since ’06 vs. A’s starter Dallas Braden

David DeJesus: .192 AVG (10-for-52) since ’06 vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle

 

Leaderboard time!

Sixty-eight of you remain a perfect 11-for-11. We’ll be a lot more impressed if 11 of you go 68-for-68.

 

Top MLB streakers

Jose Tabata: 10 games

Paul Konerko: 9 games

Six players: 8 games

(Make a BTS pick)

44 Comments

Damn Dave, you’re getting earlier everyday with your posts. Nice.
Ü
Like I said in other post, I’ll hopefully run top2500 around noonish to include Tex/det game. Post up later this afternoon/ early evening(east coasters)

Josh Hamilton for me today to go to 2.
M

I’m walking into that gym with pants completely up and daring anyone to pull them down. My sleeper pick for today: Sir Albert. Why? I think he’ll start on the road back to royalty, tonite. In past 15 PAs, he has 2 BB and 2 SO. All others were hit, just to somebody. He has Holliday for protection again & hitting in a hitter-friendly park against competition that is not the world champs. Albert’s BA invites pitching, By the time, ARI realizes they should have pitched him more carefully, Albert & I will have our hit(s).

@00Liber. Curious to find out what percentage of perfect streakers pick the early game today. My guess is that they are getting jittery and can’t wait 6 more hours for the later games. Guessing 20-30%. Haste makes waste.
Looking ahead… I wouldn’t be surprised to see high number of ‘no selections’ for the next Monday. It has a really early lockout. Bloggers remember to pick night before at latest.

^^^ kinda like the girl last year who had like a 25 with Pujols on a Sunday night game that went extras and he got a hit. Next day was real early lock so she NS. OOPS.
M

I’d like to welcome my brother-law to the bloggers group with a whopping 1gm streak courtesy AJ Pis yesterday.
M

I had one of the two hits that my team put up yesterday with Cano. I’m going with Kosuke Fukudome for 2.

@yanks. Kosuke got pulled yesterday after 2AB. Dont know his status for today.

I’m one of those perfect streakers, but I’m going with Miguel Montero late for a 12-streak. In the past I used game times as a tiebreaker (favoring early games), but I’m trying to be more serious about my picking these days.

Running top2500 as I type, hopefully post results in an hour or so when I take lunch.

@lav- there were a couple times last year when I couldn’t wait for the later games so I picked from the early one as well. Fortunately for me I only did that when I was below 5 or 6. Hopefully these people that are at double digits will agree with you that waiting for someone to play in the last game could be a wise idea if they are the best choice for the day. Anyway, I went with Marlon Byrd today as I think the Cubbies will hit well in all three games against the Astros and I think I am picking a Cub all three times. GL everyone!

Appears we have a better group of streakers. Only a small handful picked the early games. Though not all may be ‘good pickers’. A few picked Helton who may be a pinch hitter today. Ichiro highest picked, & none picked Albert ;)

Stats for the 68 “perfect” pickers:

*Only six picked the early game.

*Suzuki: 17
*Kemp: 8 (my very close second choice)
*Castro: 4
*Fukudome: 4 (got hurt awkwardly catching a ball yesterday)
*C. Gonzalez: 3
*Hamilton: 3
*Helton: 3 (hasn’t started since Thursday)
*Mi. Cabrera: 2
*Tulowitzki: 2
*Phillips: 2
*Reyes: 2
*Pedroia: 2
*Various single picks: 16

For the first time, I’m all alone with my pick: Montero. The guy is leading the league in hitting, will almost certainly play (he sat on Saturday), can’t get rained out (retractable roof), and is 2-4 lifetime against the mediocre opposing starter.

Yes, he could have an 0-fer, but I’m surprised I’m the only one with this pick. I also thought Kemp was a can’t-miss pick, but I basically flipped a coin (figuratively).

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see high number of ‘no selections’ for the next Monday. It has a really early lockout. Bloggers remember to pick night before at latest.”

Only for those who started this year.

The 1100 AM start time is because of the Boston Marathon that they want to finish before the race starts, so it is an annual event at the same time every year.

@GPearson17: I looked at Montero, but got scared off due to how strong a spring he got and the fact that Montero has been hot for awhile now and might regress soon.

I went with Joey Votto, whose hot streak is a little newer and Latos should be a little rusty from the injury.

Five of the early pickers have been rewarded already, as Hamilton and Cabrera each have at least one hit. But somebody also picked Mike Napoli of Texas, who has apparently started only five games this year and did not start today’s game!

LaV’s List
Monday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
156 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Pick Times Picked Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki 364 14.71
Carlos Gonzalez 130 5.25
Todd Helton 124 5.01
Kosuke Fukudome 117 4.73
Albert Pujols 106 4.28
No Selection 105 4.24
Matt Kemp 86 3.47
Joey Votto 84 3.39
Josh Ham 81 3.27 GOOD (my pick)
Jose Reyes 76 3.07
Dustin Pedroia 71 2.87
Troy Tulowitzki 64 2.59
Miguel Cab 55 2.22 GOOD
Starlin Castro 55 2.22

Perfect streak playing the early game 6
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was 36.9 with S. Ichiro reseting the most.
Highest “No Selection” :Pg# 3,3,4 and 5 with streaks of 10 back to zero.

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Rank, Page#, Pick
Gpearson17, 11, pg 2, 1, M. Montero – picked 13X
LaVolpe, 6, pg 49, 1743, A. Pujols – picked 106X
Nyy4life42, 6, pg 50, 1173, Ichiro – picked 364X
Gurpsing, 6, pg 66, 1173, Ichiro – picked 364X
Blanco21, 5, pg 100+, 2332, J. Reyes – picked 76X

GL to all
M

I dont know why there is the smiley face in there. I still need to work on the formatting abit ( haven’t done this since Aug)

Thought maybe the smiley face was poking fun at the streakers’ inability to pick a player

The razzing smiley automatically replaces a colon followed by a “p.” So you’ll just need to put a space between “Highest No Selection:” and “pg#”

Well I have a sleeper for today. I know it’s late but I wasn’t home the whole weekend and this is my first time to post since than. Coco Crisp. He ropes against Buehrle and I expect that to continue. 15 hits in 41 ABs against Buehrle so far and that should continue. Also to pearson, I wouldn’t go to Montero too much as he is hot right now but they are playing the Cards and that has to be a fluke he’s hitting so well and he will cool off eventually.

It’s only my second pick of Montero. I saw a lot of him this weekend as a Reds fan. One thing I look for is whether he gets his hits in bunches (feast or famine), or consistently over many games — and he’s been the latter so far. I really don’t know how to predict a cool-down, but I also try not to go to the same well too many times.

@vinny-glad to see you back, did you have a good weekend in PA? Went with Byrd today and hoping the Cubbies will hit well in Houston. Funny, I actually thought of going with Crisp today, GL!
@00liber-I like the smiley face too, haha.

@baseballgirlie, I am glad to be back and I had a great time. I didn’t choose Crisp as I saw it late. I have Kendrick tonight.

Are you doing a blog post today Vinny?

Kosuke pickers. Out of lineup and no chance of pinch hitting – hamstring.
Helton pickers. Out of lineup, chance of pinch hitting – back spasms
Source: rotoworld.com

@champion, not doing one today but thanks for reading. Doing one tomorrow morning early. I will be updating and doing some research tonight.

HAHAHA Way to show up again Boston. currently 7-0 TB and 0 out in top of 2.

Ok now I’m not watching the game BUT how does Pappi leg out a triple?

I’m 0-2 through four. Need some good mojo!

Montero just walk in his 3 appearance.

1 more AB for sure.

And my coin-flip alternative just got a hit — as have almost everyone else with an 11-streak. Dang.

Montero will lead off the eighth, but the D-Backs will need ten more ABs through nine for a fifth Montero appearance.

Oh, dang. I’m screwed.

And I stand facing the BTS world with my pants still up!!! Pujols singles on his 5th and last AB.
gpearson17. Still slight chance to tie it in the 9th. GL

Oh crud, you’re screwed. B2B homers just added another 3 runs.

My only potential saving grace is that the SL bullpen sucks…

@gpearson-good run. The fact that you got to 11 to start the season makes me feel you will be back in no time. You are obvioulsy making some good picks. GL tomorrow!

Thanks, but I expect I won’t see a five-streak for a while. I guess I shouldn’t feel too bad, unless I somehow put together a 45-streak starting tomorrow…

I do say you are a bit fearless. You and others have no qualms picking players towards bottom of lineup. In NL, I won’t even consider players 6th-8th at home. Pitchers eat up too many outs and if team is winning in low scoring game, getting 4 ABs could be a challenge especially considering double switches. It’s just a risk I’m not comfortable with and do realize it does remove a large number of players to pick from.

I should clarify that I was scared off by picking Montero due to how strong a spring McClellan had, not Montero’s spring.

Is there going to be a HR contest this year?

I just noticed the banner has been taken down from the fantasy page.

Just wondering if anyone knows the answer here.

If the Blue Jays hadn’t blown a 7-0 lead in the 7th inning, every single road team would have won today.

When was the last time that every road team won a game played on a particular day with at least 10 games played?

@champ-I am from Seattle so I am a Mariners fan and I have to say that was the sweetest thing ever. Down 7-0 going into t he bottom of the seventh and coming back to win, INCREDIBLE!! I don’t know the answer to your question but that is interesting. I didn’t even realize that until you said something. Good job Mariners, now build on this and don’t go lose your next 7 in a row again, haha!

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