Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, May 18


Yesterday was a wet and wild one in Streakland. With monsoon season in full effect and four of 15 contests canceled, galoshes and an umbrella were practically requirements for making a pick.

Streakers came through impressively, however, with popularity kings Robinson Cano, Ichiro Suzuki and Joey Votto boarding the ark and sailing a combined 21.7 of all selectors to safety.

Today should bring more of the same, as Al Roker peered into his crystal ball this morning and foresaw continued downpours across the Eastern seaboard. Hatches are being battened down and essential provisions hoarded. In times like these, though, there’s only one place to turn for inspiration: “The Perfect Storm.” Take us away, Marky Mark:

“I loved you the moment I saw you. I love you now, and I’ll love you forever. No goodbye. There’s only love.”

Come on, Mark — not that one. Clooney, save us here?

“The fog’s just lifting. Throw off your bow line; throw off your stern. You head out to South channel, past Rocky Neck and Ten Pound Island. The guys are busy — you’re in charge. You know what? You’re a swordboat captain! Is there any thing better in the world?”

We didn’t see the end of that movie, but we assume everyone made it back safe and sound with plenty of fish and then the Red Sox won the World Series, right?

Wednesday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)


Oh, hello there … 

Andre Ethier.500 (22-for-44) since ’06 vs. Giants starer Matt Cain

David DeJesus: .400 (10-for-25) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

Shane Victorino: .444 (4-for-9) since ’06 vs. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa

Placido Polanco: .400 (4-for-10) since ’06 vs. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa


Feeling kinda spicy?

Luke Scott: .545 (6-for-11) since ’06 vs. Yankees starter Bartolo Colon

Austin Kearns: .429 (6-for-14) since ’06 vs. White Sox starter Jake Peavy


You’ll thank me later …

Michael Bourn: .148 (4-for-27) since ’06 vs. Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse

Howard Kendrick: .158 (3-for-19) since ’06 vs. Mariners starter Jason Vargas

Jose Reyes: .133 (2-for-15) since ’06 vs. Nationals starter Tom Gorzelanny

Miguel Cabrera: .100 (1-for-10) since ’06 vs. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz


Leaderboard time!

Current leader buddycrise reached 28 games with Martin Prado yesterday and now sits just two games back of the season lead. Oh, and another 28 games back from a little thing we like to call 5.6 million buckaroos.

Top MLB streakers 

Ramon Hernandez:  11 games

Jhonny Peralta: 11 games

Jason Bartlett: 9 games

Austin Jackson:  9 games

Martin Prado: 9 games

(Make a BTS pick)

45 Comments

@Ian. Not so sure about that Ethier recommendation: 0 for last 4 games, 2 for last 21? Stats are one thing, slumps are another. Cain is no slouch
@Champ88. Look at yesterday’s blog. Left a tip for you

Note to self. Bud Norris pitching today. No Stl for me. That being said Puj, Holli and Berk probly go off. I’m again sticking with my hot hand in Marty Prado. Darwin Barney (who has been hitting the crap out of everything lately) also got some consideration as well as Mike Young.

Specifically, I see NYY/BAL, DET/BOS, COL/PHI, and WAS/NYM as games to completely avoid due to weather. It’s a little more iffy for PIT/CIN and CLE/CWS, but they should be able to play. Personally, I’m picking Brandon Phillips for the first time this season. There simply aren’t a lot of good choices yet again today.

Hochevar not starting for KC. Could change things for Michael Young. Danny Duffy making his major league debut.

I looked at the probables for the first time this morning and Danny Duffy was already posted.

So Hochevar was only up there if you were looking long-term.

Did Hochevar get hurt or simply get demoted?

Picking a familiar person every day isn’t going to cut it. That person will more than likely be the one who gets shut down where somebody like Jack Cust will get a hit that particular day. It’s going to take time and out of the way picks to win this thing.

Depends on how many familiars one has :). The idea that one has to go out on a limb to win this thing is an idea I don’t agree with. But sticking to a select few will burn you sooner or later; that I do agree on.
For example, I use btwn 25-35 in a pool and whittle them down to a final 4. That pool of hitters don’t have an average less than 295. I then scrutinize the final 4 and make my primary/secondary picks. The secondary is in case primary is benched or rain likely. My final four today, for example, are Lowrie, Votto, Polanco, Joyce.

How do you decide who gets entry into that pool?

Does that mean that Carl Crawford has to hit .600 in June to get in?

Not something willing to share right now. It’s a new program I wrote last weekend and am using it to help make picks. So far, I am quite pleased. Not only am I on a 10-gamer, I have 18 hits in those 10 games (maybe another one b4 today ends). All my 1st hits are off the starters too. Quite pleased, but it isn’t fine tuned yet.

^^ edited: Wrote 2 weekends ago (after that last massacre when STL & my pick was 1-hit by Gallardo). Made me so mad I decided to try some new automation.

Keith, can you run 2500 tonight? I can but it wouldn’t b untill about 830-9 eastern.

Sure, just post a reply to it that updates us on the PH & reset rates. Let me know if you’ll need the data I pull.

Today’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 148 batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Placido Polanco, 253, 10.12
Paul Konerko, 215, 8.6
Joey Votto, 165, 6.6
Shane Victorino, 146, 5.84
Erick Aybar, 141, 5.64
Martin Prado, 107, 4.28 (Leader)
Andre Ethier, 99, 3.96
Michael Young, 96, 3.84
Jose Bautista, 91, 3.64
Brandon Phillips, 78, 3.12
Adrian Gonzalez, 69, 2.76
Dustin Pedroia, 66, 2.64
Starlin Castro, 57, 2.28
Asdrubal Cabrera, 52, 2.08
Matt Holliday, 46, 1.84
No Selection, 36, 1.44
Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 5 with streak of 15 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 reset rate appended by 00Liber later
—————————————-
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders Top2500 saved or reset by pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or more
appended by 00Liber later
—————————————-
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
LaVolpe, 9, 77, 1690, J.Votto
ihavebestdogever, 9, 71, 1690, M.Prado
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
none

That has to be the 1st day in quite awhile that Ichiro is not in the top picks for the day on a day where the Mariners play.

Had that happened at all during this season?

Don’t know the answer, but he was only picked 22 times, less than 1% of the Top2500. Hitting against Dan Haren probably was the main reason.

Actually yes please if you don’t mind sending them. I’ll update the rest in about an hour or so.

Will do

5 of my last 7 picks are O fer and 1 of the other 2 is a Did Not Play.
Let’s go Cano!

:) currently 0-2

1 for 3! :)

Saw that. Congrats on getting back on the board.

@LaVolpe: I actually went to bed early last night, so I did not see your tip until now.

As of now, Lee has already been taken off the pick list.

Thankfully, I had stocked up on David Wright picks yesterday when I noticed that it was confirmed that he had a stress fracture.

Unfortunately, the Mets do not play on May 23rd, but the Cubs do not either, so that would not have helped me anyway.

Looks like Lee might not be going on DL now. However izturis probably is. Stock him if need be.

ha, that is strange that they yanked him from the pick list then!

You mean Maicer Izturis or Cesar Izturis?

A couple times a week I bring up rotoworld 1st thing in the AM and look for potential DL/roster moves. If I find one, I load up on him. We have lots of rain outs (double headers) to be made up and potentially unfavorable interleague picks coming up. Those safe picks may come in handy should I want them.

Cubs? Lee is now an Oriole

And he’s still not a DL move. I’ll have to go back and look at rotoworld to see if it changed or is still expected.

FYI. Just posted by rotoworld: “Orioles manager Buck Showalter isn’t too impressed, as he said he expected Lee to feel a lot better. But, the O’s will for now hold off placing Lee on the DL…”

Hmmmm for some reason it won’t post the couple links I tried to share. (awaiting moderation)
Baltimore Izturis.
atmlb.com/lN4fZ3
Lee maybe not going to DL.
atmlb.com/jwrMIq

Victorino pickers happy. Comes in to PH and bunt sacrifice: 0-0

But Polanco pickers not happy. Victorino’s bunt helped score a run. Polanco left on deck in 8th, leading by 1, going to the 9th

Keith, so what’s the ruling there Victo just pauses everyone that picked him?

Yes, a bunt sac does not count as an official AB for streaks. However, a fly sac to the outfield does for streaks only, not for their official stats.

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 16.69% with BILLY BUTLER reseting the most.
There was also 36.52% PPD due to players not playing OR RAIN. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.

——————————————–
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
T Helton 7 DEF SWITCH (no effect) highest was 16 gamer

@Champ88. Your game just entered rain delay. Score is 0-0. Worse case scenario is it will be resumed tomorrow AM.

Michael Young pickers starting to bite their finger nails. Three times up, 3 walks. Spot in lineup guaranteed at least one more time, maybe twice.

Bad luck. TEX takes lead by 1 in top of 9th. Bottom of 9th Young pulled for defensive reasons. 1st pitch to Hosmer and HR, game tied. Young is done for the night eve if game goes into extras.

Could we have both top picks in the Top2500 drop today? Konerko 0-3 with 1 more AB guaranteed. But game is only in 7th and tied right now. Too early to call.

Oops check that. Not tied. ChiSox winning at home by one. Konerko may not come up again since he is due up in the 9th

Pauly falls too. Gonna be a big reset day.

Anon know why Berkie and Holiday got pulled?

Both a little hurt: Berkman – wrist, Holliday – quad

I know it took 15 innings but I have my first 2 hit pick of May on the 18th try. :) :) (2 for 6)

Looks to be another leader board cleansing event. Tomorrow you should see 18-gamers on the front page of the standings. Ethier & Polanco did the most damage to the 20+ club

Congrats on the No. 4 spot in the Latest Leaders rankings at MLB.com Blogs! Good jump in the standings. Hope you and your readers are enjoying our brand-new blogging platform with WordPress.com … everyone start an MLBlog and see if you can make our Latest Leaders fan category.

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