Beat the Streak Report: Memorial Day Weekend

Like Diddy in the Hamptons, you Streakers rolled into MDW in style. Yesterday’s top nine picks each carried the mail, propelling a whopping 59.1 percent of all selectors one day closer to throwing White Parties of their own.

Adrian Gonzalez led the way at 16.8 percent, but the heroes came in all shapes and sizes: Young (Starlin Castro) and old (Todd Helton), speedy (Jose Reyes) and powerful (Jose Bautista), consistent (Adam Jones) and streaky (Troy Tulowitzki) … No matter your preferred pick method, Thursday’s selection more than likely brought home the turkey bacon.

Looking forward, this holiday weekend marks the season’s unofficial one-third pole — a time of barbecues, ballgames and convincing yourself that seersucker is a good idea. The novelty of warm weather hasn’t worn off yet and just about every team has something to play for. Our season leader sits at 30 games, but there will be plenty of hot streaks to ride as we waltz into the dog days.

Get out there and throw something on a grill — but don’t forget to lock in those picks first.

_____________

Friday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Ichiro Suzuki: .444 AVG (8-for-18) since ’06 vs. Yankees starter A.J. Burnett

Aubrey Huff: .455 AVG (5-for-11) since ’06 vs. Brewers starter Shaun Marcum

• Erick Aybar: .444 AVG (4-for-9) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Scott Baker

Feeling kinda spicy?

Miguel Tejada: .476 AVG (10-for-21) since ’06 vs. Brewers starter Shaun Marcum

You’ll thank me later …

Gaby Sanchez: .091 AVG (1-for-11) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Jon Garland

Jimmy Rollins: .111 AVG (1-for-9) since ’06 vs. Mets starter Chris Capuano

Home Run BTS pick:

Carlos Quentin: (12 HR this season) vs. Blue Jays starter Kyle Drabek


Saturday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Andrew McCutchen: .545 AVG (6-for-11) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Randy Wells

• Billy Butler.625 AVG (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Rangers starter Matt Harrison

• Chipper Jones: .438 AVG (7-for-16) since ’06 vs. Reds starter Bronson Arroyo

Feeling kinda spicy?

• Reed Johnson: .636 AVG (7-for-11) since ’06 vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm

You’ll thank me later …

Miguel Cabrera: .154 AVG (2-for-13) since ’06 vs. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz

• Placido Polanco: .188 AVG (3-for-16) since ’06 vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey

Home Run BTS pick:

Ryan Howard: (11 HR this season) vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey


Sunday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Alberto Callaspo: .462 AVG (12-for-26) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

• Todd Helton: .500 AVG (7-for-14) since ’06 vs. Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse

Alfonso Soriano: .500 AVG (7-for-14) since ’06 vs. Pirates starter Jeff Karstens

Feeling kinda spicy?

• Ryan Roberts: .500 AVG (4-for-8) since ’06 vs. Astros starter Bud Norris

You’ll thank me later …

Ryan Theriot: .143 AVG (2-for-14) since ’06 vs. Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin

Jacoby Ellsbury: .182 AVG (2-for-11) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

Home Run BTS pick:

Nelson Cruz: (8 HR this season) vs. Royals starter Danny Duffy


Monday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

• Miguel Cabrera: .458 AVG (11-for-24) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

Evan Longoria: .556 AVG (5-for-9) since ’06 vs. Rangers starter Derek Holland

Joey Votto: .556 AVG (5-for-9) since ’06 vs. Brewers starter Chris Narveson

Feeling kinda spicy?

Alfredo Amezaga: .500 AVG (6-for-12) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley

You’ll thank me later …

• Jhonny Peralta: .150 AVG (3-for-20) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn

Wilson Betemit: .188 AVG (3-for-16) since ’06 vs. Angels starter Ervin Santana

Home Run BTS pick:

• Chris Young: (9 HR this season) vs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad


Leaderboard time

With the Sarge going down yesterday, our current leaders, Dcough4z and whall31, sit at 24 games. That’s a nice little run, folks. Make it through the weekend and we can talk turkey.


Top MLB streakers 

Buster Posey: 13 games

Vladimir Guerrero:  11 games

Nick Markakis:  11 games

Juan Pierre11 games

As per the LoMo rule from earlier this season, Buster gets one more weekend atop this list. See ya in a few months, buddy.


(Make a BTS pick)

63 Comments

I have Pence to get to 12. As has happened often lately, my guy isn’t even in the top 15. And nobody else has picked him until page 6.

He was only picked 7 times in TOP2500

Despite the rainy conditions, a lot of picks from the early game. Guaranteed lineup + sub-par hurlers

LaV’s List
Friday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
161 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Placido Polanco 307 12.28
Andrew McCutch 193 7.72 (1RST)(3RD)
Ichiro Suzuki 136 5.44 (3RD)
Jacoby Ellsbury 133 5.32
Adrian Gonzalez 126 5.04 (3RD)
Andre Ethier 90 3.6
Martin Prado 85 3.4
Michael Young 78 3.12
Kevin Youkilis 76 3.04
Matt Kemp 69 2.76
Starlin Castro 56 2.24 (1RST)
No Selection 41 1.64
——————————————-
Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 7 with streak of 16 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 9.46% with NO SELECTION reseting the most.
There was also 9.89% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
M Weiters BAL, RESET 3, 10,9,9 GAMERS

——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
gpearson17, 11, pg 30, 626, HUNTER PENCE (PICKED 7X)
bjm5355, 9, pg 60, 1314, JACOBY ELLSBURY (PICKED 133X)
kenfucious, 8, pg 100+, 1951, KOSUKE FUKUDOME (PICKED 24X)
——————————————-
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
ttrebnivel, 10,RESET BY SETH SMITH
GL to all
M

——————————————-

wooooo! Already onto tomorrow.

1st inning hit by McCutchen gets me to 7! :)

I went with a sleeper pick today.

Scott Rolen against Tommy Hanson

1st AB single by Rolen moves me onto 3!

I am never going to get to double digits this year. I am going with people who are hot and they don’t do a damn thing but the rest of the team does. My worst year ever so far and I hope it gets better. Haven’t been past 2 in like 3 weeks.

I almost forgot about my Pence pick, until just now. He’s 1-3, and I’m at 12.

I went with another sleeper pick today:

Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers

LaV’s List
Saturday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
151 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Michael Young 300 12.0 (3RD)
Ryan Howard 174 6.96
Adrian Gonzalez 142 5.68
Josh Hamilton 140 5.60
Starlin Castro 125 5.00 (1RST)
Prince Fielder 88 3.52
Ichiro Suzuki 83 3.32
Matt Joyce 81 3.24 (1RST)
Brian McCann 68 2.72
Placido Polanco 60 2.40
No Selection 39 1.56
Joey Votto 35 1.40 (3RD)
Curt Granderson 31 1.24 (3RD)
——————————————-
Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 14 with streak of 14 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 16.28% with ROBO-KEMP reseting the most.
There was also 5.24% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
J Baker CHC, RESET 2, 13 & 9 GAMERS
B DeWitt CHC, RESET 2, 14 & 8 GAMERS
B Boesch DET, RESET 1, 8 GAMER
C Ross SF, RESET 1, DEF SWICTH, 17 GAMER
M Holliday STL, 28 IBB (NO EFFECT) HIGHEST WAS 18 GAMER
D Fowler COL, RESET 6 , 12,11,10,3@9 GAMERS
W Bloomquist ARI, SAVED 1 , 8 GAMER
——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
gpearson17, 12, pg 26, 533, DAVID DEJESUS (PICKED 10X)
bjm5355, 10, pg 50, 1123, STARLIN (PICKED 125X)
LeeRoy77, 8, pg 98, 2432, DARWIN BARNEY (PICKED 13X)
——————————————-
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
kenfucious, 8, RESET BY KOSUKE FUKUDOME
GL to all
M

——————————————-

I went out on a limb yet again today with DeJesus to get to 13. Can’t say I’m that confident about the pick, but I really don’t like skipping days intentionally.

Weekends generally good for big resets. One leader down with S.Castro, one to go

Another sleeper pick comes through!

line drive single by Nelson Cruz moves me to 4!

Just saw Bautista homered today too!

PERFECT day!

Keith, b/c I reset yesterday, thought you’d care to know. I’m going Polanco (who also 0-fered)

Yeah, I’m with you in that 0-fer club. I got suckered into a sting operation :). Picked 1 of 2 hot hitters against a pitcher with a lifetime 300+ opposing batting average who throws a 1-hitter — the 7th place hitter. Pen came in & shut us down for the remainder of the game, including extras.
Kinda odd thing in one sense. Since I’ve been playing the HRBTS, the guy I chose may not have gotten a that day, but he did get a hit. Hmmm, different strategy? Nah, just luck/coincidence.

Keith, can you pull stats pls. Just got called out for work. I’ll update all the resets and PH when I’m done. (I already have the template ready.)

Sure.

I just noticed the Red Sox and Tigers are playing a double header. I’m taking Robinson Cano but just warning everyone.

The Red Sox and Tigers never got underway last night, so they are making up that game.

I am going with another sleeper pick today:

Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds

Sunday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 151 batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Alberto Callaspo 330 13.33 (Leader)
Placido Polanco 218 8.81 (runner up)
Jose Bautista 195 7.88
Troy Tulowitzki 162 6.55
Robinson Cano 159 6.42
Michael Young 143 5.78
Alfonso Soriano 68 2.75
No Selection 53 2.14
Andrew McCutchen 51 2.06
Josh Hamilton 51 2.06
Todd Helton 48 1.94
Starlin Castro 42 1.7
Adrian Gonzalez 41 1.66
Curtis Granderson 38 1.54
Matt Joyce 36 1.45
Carl Crawford 20 0.81 (runner up)
Highest “No Selection” :) pg# 17 with streak of 5 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 reset rate was an impressive 31.48% with M.Young resetting the most
—————————————-
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders. Top2500 saved or reset by pinch hitters and/or defensive switch, 1 AB or more
M.Holliday PH RESET 30, highest was 20-gamer
E.Encarnacion PH RESET 7 highest was 14-gamer
J.Baker PH RESET 4 highest was 11-gamer
J.Carroll DEF RESET 4 highest was 15-gamer
K.Fukudome PH RESET 3 highest was 15-gamer
A.Torres PH walk SAVED 3 that stay idle, highest was 13-gamer
F.Lewis PH RESET 1 highest was 16-gamer
C.Denorfia PH RESET 1 highest was 11-gamer
J.Herrera DEF RESET 1 highest was 11-gamer
C.Quentin PH 2ABs RESET 1 highest was 9-gamer
J.Thome PH RESET 1 highest was 9-gamer
—————————————-
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
LeeRoy77, 9, 60, 1483, B.Abreu
YanksGiantsDevils33, 8, 97, 2382, R.Cano
_Em_, 8, 100+, 2382, A.Huff
Top2500 Bloggers Reset Yesterday
gpearson17 @ 12 reset by D.DeJesus
bjm5355 @ 10 reset by S.Castro

Dyslexia alert: Highest reset should have read:
Highest “No Selection” :) pg# 5 with streak of 17 back to zero
– And for you Top2500 ppl, here’s the number of times your pick was picked:
B.Abreu 13x, R.Cano 159x, A.Huff 2x

One of the two tied in 2nd place either doesn’t know the rules or doesn’t keep up with schedule changes. C.Crawford if playing in both games of doubleheader will need hit in each for ryanboland708 to move on today.

Hey, dont worry about emailing the files. I just got back to work and am still able to pull with N.S. still included. Thx for posting.

With a first inning single by Escobar, I move onto tomorrow.

Polanco gets me back in play as well.

Yesterday I mentioned how weekends generally mean big resets. So far that is true. Leader dropped yesterday along with 31% of the Top2500. Today, another leader will drop assuming LAA doesn’t bat around or extras. Unless Cano & Tulo go 0-fer, may have an overall lower reset rate than yesterday.

With COL/STL game now done, we’re sitting at about 29% reset with 19% still yet to be determined.

Hamilton’s 0-fer just pushed it over 30%

1st AB home run by Bruce moves me onto 5!

FYI: Of the Top2500, 138 picked players in the BOS/DET doubleheader (DH). That’s only about 5.5%, indicating most of us playing this game probably are aware not to pick in DHs or to change our picks when a rain-out is scheduled next day forcing a DH. So what was the result of those 138?
– 36 were lucky enough to move on
– 102 were reset due to picks not getting a hit in one of the games they played in. That’s 4 pages of the standings, including a 25, 20, & 19-gamer among them.

And what about HRBTS? kody.holyoak with a streak of 2 picked Ortiz. PH in 1st game going yard; 0-4 in 2nd game. Oops, that’ll read a streak of zero tomorrow.

The low DH picks might be because none of the pitchers in that doubleheader were good ones to go against.

Verlander, Beckett, and Buchholz are all tough pitchers and Oliver was making his 1st start of the season.

Well, we can always smile in disbelief whenever anyone on 1st pages of the standings pick in a DH and go 0-fer, as was the case yesterday. This was me smiling in disbelief: :P

Back in 2008 or 2009, when Chipper made his run at .400 early in the season, nearly 1/2 the 1st page still went with Chipper.

It worked out too!

If there was ever a day that only doubleheaders played and you didn’t have DL player, what would be the theoretical strategy? For NL, I guess you’d look at the 1st games and pick the best catcher vs pitcher you can find since NL catchers rarely play both games. The AL is not so easy, cause a good hitting catcher can be designated hitter next game. Of course one could just pick a good singles hitter near top of lineup or best player in lineup & hope for the best Fun to think about, but what are the odds of such a day happening?

The most games I have ever seen in 1 day is 19 games.

But if a day like that happened, I would just go about my analysis per normal.

I would not trust the catcher to not come in as a pinch-hitter in the other game.

Is your top 2500 going up soon?

Maybe 00Liber slept in a bit today? If he doesn’t post it by top of the hour, I’ll do it for him. He usually chimes in soon after games lock.

I’m here. running it now. post will be up in about 10

I went with a more normal pick today:

Asdrubal Cabrera of the Cleveland Indians

LaV’s List
Monday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
156 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Joey Votto 337 13.48 (1RST)(3RD)
Miguel Cabrera 226 9.04 (2ND)
Asdrubl Cabrera 158 6.32
Ryan Braun 137 5.48
Ichiro Suzuki 86 3.44
Evan Longoria 84 3.36
Adrian Gonzalez 77 3.08 (3RD)
Carl Crawford 74 2.96 (3RD)
Brndon Phillips 72 2.88
Jose Bautista 64 2.56
No Selection 59 2.36

——————————————-
Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 11 with streak of 14 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 38.88% with ALBERTO CALLASPO reseting the most.
There was also 6.36% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
D Ortiz BOS, SAVED 10 IN 1RST GAME OF DH, HIGEST WAS 19 GAMER (but it don’t matter as he 0-fered 2nd game)
E Andrus TEX, SAVED 4,DEF SWICTH, 14,12,12,9 GAMERS
N Reimold BAL, RESET 2, DEF SWICTH, 9,9 GAMERS

——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
Leeroy77, 10, pg 38, 924, B PHILLIPS (PICKED 72X)
Yanksgiantsdevils33, 9, pg 58, 1422, MIGGY (PICKED 226X)
_em_, 9, pg 67, 1422, ICHIRO (PICKED 86X)
Tolvar, 8, pg 97, 2368, JASON BARTLETT (PICKED 1X)
——————————————-
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
none
GL to all
M

Andrus saved 4. Another point of view. He helped reset 51 Hamilton pickers. His game ending single in 9th, with 2 outs & tied game, guaranteed Josh didn’t see another AB, due up 2nd in the 10th.

I picked Jon Jay, and he’s not in the starting lineup. :-(

Likely to PH for pitcher or maybe even for Holliday/Berkman, in late innings, depending on score & a righty pitcher.

I can only hope he doesn’t PH or if he does, he gets a hit.

Didn’t expect him PH vs. a lefty, but LaRussa did it anyway

Figures. Will he stay in the game?

Doesn’t matter anyway as he wouldn’t get another AB. Just my luck. And again I get reset just one game away from my season high.

I feel like I need a new strategy because everything I’ve tried so far hasn’t gotten me very far.

What is your strategy right now?

Also, keep in mind Jay is the 4th outfielder on the Cardinals.

He was only starting recently because Berkman, Holliday, and Rasmus all spent time out of the lineup with various injuries, but everyone was healthy today.

So you should not have expected him in the lineup,

That was not bad luck.

It was a bad pick.

Brutal honesty ;)

Just for that, I hope Cabrera goes 0-fer. :p

Keeps hitting into double plays, he’s contributing to limiting his ABs to a max of 4. 0-fer is not out of the question

In terms of feeling better, I would rather know I made a bad pick, because then it means that my strategy is still solid and I just need to be more careful and more disciplined.

However, I am mad at myself for getting scared away from Jay Bruce because I thought the Brewers would pitch around him.

He is already 2 for 2 with a triple and a home run.

Thankfully, I went with Bruce in HR BTS, so I move to 1 there!

WHAT THE F*****!!!!!

WHY THE HELL DID THEY PINCH HIT FOR CABRERA???

At least pinch-hit for a crappy hitter like Austin Kearns or Jack Hannahan.

I think Adam Everett is always going to be a horrible hitter.

No reason to get him any AB’s.

To make matters worse, nearly every other hitter I considered today has a hit.

I have to pray that tomorrow’s pick goes 0 for now to ease the pain of losing my 6-game hit streak.

But I hate having to root against myself.

This royally sucks.

I usually make good picks and get unlucky. Today I simply made a bad pick. My other choices all got hits.

So you never answered me before.

What is your current strategy?

And what is your season high and career high?

It’s probably the worst strategy possible, but I look for a pitcher that has a ton more hits than innings pitched and then go for a player that is historically good against him. Also I look at R/L averages and home and away averages. Also how many hits so far for the season. My season high is 6 and my career high is 12.

No strategy is ideal else we’d have some BTS millionaires.
I think one flaw in that strategy is this: season numbers don’t tell the best story I think. I think it may be better to look at a pitcher’s last 3 starts (two weeks) to get a feel for a trend. Similar for batters, maybe look at past week or so for a trend.
Though that’s not always ideal either. Look at those that picked Votto: owns Narveson (500+ avg) & Votto hitting 300+ for past 7 days. Narveson’s last 2 outings were horrible & 2 before that were good, but holding lefties under 250 for the year. Votto seemed a good pick; trend-wise. But that logic reset a ton of streakers today. It all comes down to luck… Pick a hitter you think has a very good chance, statistically, of getting a hit. It’s up to the hitter to put the ball in play. Obviously easier said than done

Tough few days for BTS leaders. A quick summary…
Thursday: Leader falls with G.Sanchez
Friday: Both new co-leaders moved on but…
Saturday: One leader falls with S.Castro
Sunday: Remaining leader falls with A.Callaspo
Today: New leader falls with J.Votto
Leaders have to feel lately they are targeted by quality snipers!

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