Beat the Streak Report: Wednesday, June 15

After two intense days of picking and Tweeting, the Beat the Streak Colbert Challenge reached its conclusion last night.

Albert Pujols — Stephen Colbert’s pick for Tuesday — homered in his first at-bat against Yuniesky Maya to give the Comedy Central host a two-game streak.

@MLB’s selection — Kevin Youkilis — went 0-for-4 against James Shields and the Rays.

The result: a Colbert victory with a high streak of two games. Mr. Colbert will gain full access to @MLB for a 24-hour period  in the near future. Expect plenty of witty political banter, anti-bear propoganda and stern finger-pointing.

________________

Wednesday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)


Oh, hello there … 

Paul Konerko: .478 (11-for-23) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

Vladimir Guerrero: .529 (9-for-17)  since ’06 vs. Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero

Angel Pagan: .500 (8-for-16) since ’06 vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson

Mark Teixeira: .500 (6-for-12) since ’06 vs. Rangers starter Derek Holland

Prince Fielder: .349 (15-for-43) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano

Joey Votto: .368 (7-for-19) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley


Feeling kinda spicy?

Matt Diaz.583 (7-for-12) since ’06 vs. Astros starter J.A. Happ

Jonny Gomes: .625 (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley


You’ll thank me later …

Rickie Weeks: .195 (8-for-41) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano

Troy Tulowitzki: .000 (0-for-8) since ’06 vs. Padres starter Mat Latos

Brandon Phillips: .182 (4-for-22) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley

Bobby Abreu: .190 (4-for-21) since ’06 vs. Mariners starter Erik Bedard

Hunter Pence: .167 (2-for-12) since ’06 vs. Pirates starter Charlie Morton

Aramis Ramirez: .182 (2-for-11) since ’06 vs. Brewers starter Chris Narveson


Leaderboard time!

Current co-leaders jdc5850 and sebringt both advanced their streaks to 29 games yesterday. A shot to tie the season lead at 31 could come tomorrow. No pressure, guys, but tomorrow is only one day after today.


Top MLB streakers 

Paul Konerko: 13 games

Andrew McCutchen: 13 games

Jacoby Ellsbury: 11 games


Home Run Beat the Streak pick:

Nelson Cruz: (15HR this season) vs. Yankees starter Ivan Nova

27 Comments

Interleague starting Friday & lasting til July 4th… Anyone like to throw out a strategy or two? Keep in mind that for the most part, pitcher vs. batter stats are skimpy and generally well over a year old. If you want to throw a strategy out there, please avoid debating it. No strategy is perfect and all will have holes, we know that. Let’s make it more for “food for thought”.
– One possible strategy: Avoid picking 6-8 batters of AL teams in NL parks. AL pitcher a sure out most of the time; 6-8 batters may get 1 less AB vs. hitting in their own park.
– May need to avoid many AL power hitters in NL parks. These guys may be the DH or 1B. And usually, just 1 plays and 1 may PH.
– How about a simple strategy: Pick whatever AL team that plays against HOU, PIT, NYM
– No research strategy, no change for many: Pick O’day, best average vs. worse pitcher O’day, etc

I’d say we can consider picks that Ian provides every day, but he can’t even beat Colbert, so maybe not the best strategy for Interleague ;)

lol, Ian’s picks are HORRIBLE!

When I used to read Vinny’s blog daily, I noticed that the Beat the Streak Report’s picks normally hit .200 or less.

Even I have done way better than that and I have a horrible start.

Lav, there is no set strategy because nothing is set in stone but there is always a way and with interleague play upon us I think the Picks Of The Day could be good or even picking somebody who is playing the Twins, Astros, Pirates or Nats.

Of course there are strategies. Strategies are just not always effective; as we all know
Strategy = A method or plan of accomplishing a goal.
Goal = 57-gamer. Or in most of our cases: Goal = 30-gamer plus

@Vinny. Ignore last post. I misread your reply.
Agreed, nothing is ever set in stone when the human factor is involved. But some strategies are better than others as proven by the 40+ gamers this game turns out each year.

It’s ok man. This game is so unpredictable and this year nobody is at 40 yet and it’s half way through the season.

Speaking of success in this game. If Kemp gets a hit today, may want to keep an eye on HomeRun4 (currently a 23-gamer on page 2). This is his/her 2nd 20+game streak so far. Don’t know how long of a gap between the streaks, but 1st streak was a 21-gamer.

LaV’s List
Wenesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
132 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Matt Kemp 257 10.28 (3RD)(4TH)
Miguel Cabrera 244 9.76
Joey Votto 158 6.32 (1RST)
Lance Berkman 149 5.96
Andre Ethier 137 5.48
Mark Teixeira 135 5.4
Adrian Gonzalez 127 5.08
Albert Pujols 120 4.8
Paul Konerko 112 4.48 (4TH)
Jose Reyes 77 3.08
Prince Fielder 64 2.56
No Selection 38 1.52
Ichiro Suzuki 49 1.96 (1RST)

——————————————-
Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 5 with streak of 19 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 26.64% with PRINCE FIELDER reseting the most.
There was also 22.96>% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
B McCann ATL, RESET 8, Highest was 14 gamer
J Jay STL, RESET 3, 12,10,9 gamers
B Bixler WASH, RESET 2, 14,13 gamers
D Worth DET, RESET 1, 11 gamer
——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
smoron015, 11, pg 66, 1318, AUSTIN JACKSON (PICKED 26X)

——————————————-
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
dragbunt104, 10, RESET by HUNTER PENCE
crazyforsports_8, 9, RESET by PRINCE FIELDER
GL to all
M

——————————————-

Some more stats for today. There are 116 streakers at 19+ streaks today. Many are gambling their streaks on just a few batters. Here’s a quick breakdown of the most picked by those 116, about 65% overall.
M.Kemp x19
J.Votto x12
Ad.Gonzalez & Mi.Cabrera x11 each
A.Pujols & L.Berkman x6 each
A.Ethier & P.Konerko x5 each

Those that picked Kemp have a reason for concern. Intentionally walked in 1st inning with 2 outs and just 2nd base occupied. Tells you what CIN game plan is: Don’t let Kemp beat you. Backfired on them with pitcher not able to find the strike zone. So, we’ll see.

And with a CIN 5-run lead in the 3rd, that should ease tensions & give Kemp real ABs for now

And there’s the hit for Kemp.

Just an update with those 116 mentioned above: Only 61 made it thru tonite

Just to be complete. Now 73 made it past tonite. Either a homefield advantage scoring change occurred in DET or gameday reported bad info, but Mi.Cabrera ended up 1-4 not 0-4.

A blowout in WSH and LaRussa wanting to rest his marquee players, helps reset nearly 300 Top2500 streakers. Berkman & Pujols pulled from the game, each 0-3

Wipe-out Wednesday? At least 40% of the Top2500 streakers fall tonight, including our only Bloggers Group Top2500 member.

Was just gonna say the same thing. Pretty healthy wipe tonight.

Actually the leaderboard cleansing may be so deep, we might have 3 new Top2500 members tomorrow from our Bloggers Group. May take just an 8-gamer to get on the list.

Maybe I did something wrong, but I am only showing 23.36% reset from the stats from Lav’s list?

Where are the other 20% resets coming from?

Yep, your adding skills leave something to be desired :)
Cabrera, Berkman, Gonzalez, Pujols, Konerko, Ellsbury & No Selection from list sum to 31.6%. What you don’t see are the resets from the other 100+ picked batters, but the most notable are:
Jacoby Ellsbury 54 2.16
Alex Rodriguez 32 1.28
Austin Jackson 26 1.04
Jose Bautista 23 0.92

And Starlin & Fielder, each with 1 more AB left & 0-fer, can add another 3.6% to the slaughter totals.

Miguel Cabrera was 1 for 4 today. That puts 9.76% back into the win column.

So it appears. Was that a scoring change late in the game? I swear he was 0-4 and I doubt both 00Liber and I both missed that one.

Yep, that’s exactly what happened. A little homefield scoring advantage. There are going to be a lot of happy Miggy-pickers that went to bed disappointed tonight. Here’s the transcript from a Cleveland reporter which clearly shows the hit, in the 1st inning, was originally scored an error:
“Detroit’s Brennan Boesch hit a solo home run to give the Tigers a 1-0 lead. That was followed by Miguel Cabrera reaching on an error by third baseman Jack Hannahan, Victor Martinez hitting a double, Magglio Ordonez walking and Alex Avila driving in two runs with a single as the Tigers took a 3-0 lead.”

Good to know I’m not the only one.
I looked at yahoo boxscore and the play by play reads that he reached on error but the linescore shows no error and that Miggy was 1-4.
Still a healthy wipe even without Mig.

Well, lookie at that: Cubs now have Chris Carpenter pitching. Next year we’ll have Pujols too ;)

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