Beat the Streak Report: Monday, June 27

So, the weekend brought good news and bad news for the folks atop the season leaderboard. Which do you want first? Bad news? You got it!

Season leader Sebringt‘s inspired run petered out of gas at 37 games, meaning that we’re still looking for our first 40-game streak of the 2011 campaign.

The good news: sebringt converted with Adrian Gonzalez yesterday, meaning they’re now just 36 days from matching their season-high streak.

Hang on, that was just the appetizer to our three-course good news meal. The entree: jonroy73 made it through the weekend unscathed and is now chillin’ at 36 games. A correct pick on Monday would give him his own share of the season lead. Three more weeks of correct picks would mean a $5.7 million all-you-can-eat buffet.

And for dessert: bclark2779 is just a few games behind Mr. Roy, currently holding down second place with a 32-gamer.

________________

Monday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)


Oh, hello there … 

Yunel Escobar.500 (10-for-20) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Max Scherzer

Jose Bautista.625 (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Max Scherzer

Todd Helton: .500 (4-for-8) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Matt Garza

Aramis Ramirez: .500 (3-for-6) since ’06 vs. Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin


Feeling kinda spicy?

Juan Uribe.364 (4-for-11) since ’06 vs. Twins starter Nick Blackburn


You’ll thank me later …

Starlin Castro: .000 (0-for-7) since ’06 vs. Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin

Carlos Gonzalez: .125 (1-for-8) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Matt Garza

Troy Tulowitzki: .125 (1-for-8) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Matt Garza


Top MLB streakers 

Ryan Braun: 17 games

Nick Markakis: 16 games

Alex Gordon13 games

Michael Young12 games

Dustin Pedroia: 11 games

Starlin Castro: 10 games


Home Run Beat the Streak pick:

Chris Young: (15 HR this season) vs. Indians starter Mitch Talbot

60 Comments

Small edit to the “Oh, hello there” picks: Yunel Escobar is facing Tigers starter Max Scherzer, not Brewers starter Shaun Marcum. The numbers are correct, though.

Anyways, I’ve only posted here once this year after doing it consistently from July-August of last year. Now that I have a respectable streak of 11 and my name will appear under LaV’s List, I’ll at least show myself and prove that I exist. My strategy this year has been not over-thinking my picks or checking splits. Just finding a player with decent stats all around that isn’t always a big name player. Nothing new to most pickers, but not personally putting more than 3-5 minutes into my pick has been very beneficial.

Today I’ll be going with Miguel Cabrera whom I’m 2/2 with this season. Good luck, everybody!

Gotta say that I hope Cabrera goes 0-2 with 2 walks today. Leader has him.
If Helton gets a hit today, the wife may be in the Top2500 tomorrow. Since she started this game this month; a significant accomplishment for her.

Switched out Bautista for Helton at the last second – hoping it doesn’t come back to haunt me!

Well, regarding Cabrera. Nearly 1 in 4 in the Top2500 picked him

I find it difficult to be happy too. Though, at the same time, whatever she is doing is working for her. I won’t try to interject or sway her either for other reasons (i.e., if she does win anything, no collusion between her & I can take place else we both break the BTS rules). Additionally, her luck at getting a good streak together with nearly no knowledge whatsoever about the sport kind of rejuvenates my resolve. Gotta remember, I’m married to the woman after all and am hoping this game might bring baseball, my favorite sport, into her life a bit.

Oops, must have hit the wrong reply link. Above meant for Champion_88.

@LaVolpe: Regarding the “collusion” worry, don’t worry.

You ARE allowed to share strategies with each other.

The guy who got to 45 a few years ago mentioned in his interview with MLB.com that he played with 2 or 3 other brothers and they would talk every day about who they were going to pick.

The funny part is that he always mentioned how if his brother was content with a player, he usually used that as a clue to stay away!

Maybe, maybe not. Taking no chances. We don’t share pick info until after games lock. She uses only her computer to make picks, I use only mine. We don’t look over each others’ shoulders. Bottom line, we play the game as if we were 2 people living in different countries — no collusion whatsoever. For tomorrow, I have no clue who she picked other than it will be 1 of 4 picks o’day and probably one of the top picks of the day.

lol, if sharing ideas were not allowed in the contest, then how are people allowed to share ideas on here?

Collusion: “A secret agreement between two or more parties for a fraudulent, illegal, or deceitful purpose.”
If my wife’s account was just a dummy account for me, by me influencing her picks (i.e., pick this person for me) would be collusion. Granted since she is making her own picks, me discussing potential future picks couldn’t be considered collusion based on that definition. Like I said, taking no chances, & she’s having a bit of fun as it is. Not going to influence her one way or the other.

If feel your pain but if Helton (currently 0 for 2) goes O fer while the 3 “Thank me later” picks have hit safely that is a true Beat the Streak crime! I would have to believe that 4 for 8 coming in is > 1 for 8. In addition the game total is 11 or 11½, the Rockies are slight -109 favorites and their Team total is 5 or 5½. If that is the case they are supposed to get 10+ hits. They only have 2 after 4 innings and we well know who those 2 are from. Let’s go Rockies, crank up the offense!

Todd Helton just got a hit! Helton pickers are safe, I’m at 16! :)

And my wife probably makes the Top2500 with a streak of 9 tomorrow. Don’t know whether I’m happy about that or not — I’m too much of a competitor.

High five for Helton – and right on your tail YGD!

@LaVolpe: I certainly would not be happy about that.

I hate when people spend no time and no info making picks and succeeding.

If anyone ever wins this thing, I want it to be a guy who spends 2+ hours a day making picks.

LaV’s List
Monday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
101 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Miguel Cabrera 584 23.36 (1RST)(2ND)
Jose Bautista 333 13.32
Victor Martinez 207 8.28 (4TH)
Todd Helton 198 7.92
Justin Upton 118 4.72
Matt Kemp 114 4.56
Shin-Soo Choo 79 3.16 DL
Joey Votto 68 2.72 (3RD)
Ichiro Suzuki 56 2.24
Andre Ethier 54 2.16
No Selection 50 2.00
Carlos Gonzalez 49 1.96 (4TH) GOOD

——————————————-

Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 14 with streak of 14 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 9.81% with VOTTO-BOT reseting the most.
There was also 8.04% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1/2 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 2 AB or Less)
——————————————–
J Mauer MIN, SAVED 11 (2AB) HIGHEST WAS 18 GAMER
M Joyce TB, SAVED 6 WERE 13,10,10,9,8,8 GAMERS
A Ramirez CWS, RESET 5 WERE 14,13,9,8,8 GAMERS
S Fuld TB, RESET 1 WAS 8 GAMER
Alb Gonzalez SD, RESET 1 WAS 8 GAMER
B Abreu LAA, RESET 1 WAS 8 GAMER
M Tejeda SF, RESET 1 WAS 9 GAMER
——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
YanksGiantsDevils33, 15, pg 10 , 233, TODD HELTON (PICKED 198X)
heyya, 14, pg 14, 296, CARGO (PICKED 49X) GOOD
Kenfucious, 14, pg 15, 296, TODD HELTON (PICKED 198X)
dave55, 11, pg 36, 816, MIGGY (PICKED 584X)
ChiSox07, 11, pg 36, 816, MIGGY (PICKED 584X)
tomfootball17, 10, pg 62, 1165, MIGGY (PICKED 584X)
00LIber, 9, pg 75, 1569, CarGo (PICKED 49X) GOOD
——————————————-

Bloggers Reset Yesterday
NONE
GL to all

Only reason I picked CarGo today (had Choo as place keeper) was the wind blowing at 18mph out towards left. (thx Keith or Drag, whoever posted the dailybaseball link)
Good luck to all our bloggers today.

Actually it’s dailybaseballdata.com. Congrats on getting to double digits. Keep it up for awhile.

Thx, I already Have it bookmarked from last time you posted it for quick reference.

lol, from your post last night, you made it seem like wind speed was unimportant, and then the next morning, you base your pick fully on that perspective!

Do you seriously look at biorhythmns in making your picks too?

How does that help?

When did I ever say anything about wind not being important?

I think he you got you confused with Kenfucious’ post over the weekend, regarding strategy.

Oops, that was kenfucious.

Sorry.

What sites besides http://www.dailybaseballdata.com do you guys use to help supplement your decision-making for your picks?

I don’t know what it is about June, but every year, my June is abysmal, and then turns around sharply in July-September, so I am hesitant on changing anything.

But I might as well try some other things out for the last 3 days of June anyway.

That comment was mine – and the biorhythm note was entirely in jest. In fact, my argument was completely against over-analysis.

Well Ian, all 3 of your “you’ll thank me later” picks are safe for today.

Let me just say the leader has a big one going with Miggy today who has never faced Stewart before so this is going to be very interesting today since most of the time pitcher dominates and shuts the team down.

The reason was quite simple Holmes. Pitcher’s opposing batters average was somewhere near 330, though less than 20 innings pitches. Cabrera is a quality hitter. Favorable overall numbers is the reason; though those numbers have nothing to do with pitcher vs. batter history. We’ve seen this time & time again in BTS. It’s a faith pick. As I mentioned earlier, I’d like to see him go down today and if he does, it might be a combination of walks (a bit wild maybe), timing being off for Cabrera, and just bad luck for those that picked him. The cards have been dealt, now we just wait and see.

Miggy due up top of 2nd. So far pitcher has shown just an average fastball and a slider with little speed differential. If he doesn’t get a some good calls on the black or shows Miggy a different pitch for the out, I’d say Miggy pickers should start feeling a bit confident.

And I reset my case!

And I reset my case :)

Well game o the night underway and Max comes out firing bullets, sticking out the side. Including Tista.

Cabrera: 1-1

Well there’s still hope that Tista goes o-fer

Scherzer is one of those pitchers that scare me. He’s reset me more than once. Catch him a his good day and good nite

Everything happens for a reason. Miggy is a good hitter but most of the people who play BTS go by averages and that isn’t what it should be about. If I see a pitcher facing a team for the first time I stay away.

Different topic: ESPN’s Streak for the Stash. I’ve seen you guys post stuff about that in the recent past. Some questions if you don’t mind:
1. If I understand it correctly, the jackpot for next month may be at $350K?
2. Highest streak at end of month, at or greater than 27 wins?
3. You don’t have to have an active streak at end of month to win?
4.The rules are similar to Survivor, but you don’t have to pick everyday and can pick more than once a day?

Correct on all accounts. Normal monthly prize is 50k with the stash carried over from month to month if 27 is not hit.
If you’re interested we have a group, bts bloggers group.

I’ll play this for a couple days to get my feet wet. Will join the group first of month & give the game a shot. Any strategies you want to share, especially with non-MLB picks?

Any of your group members in the hunt for this month? If so, who?

Nah. There’s only 9 or10 of us and Gamara had the best streak of the month at W10.
As for a strategy if I have no streak going or a losing streak I’ll pick anything and everything, but once I get streak going I stay away from soccer golf and tennis. Throughout spring and summer I mostly pick baseball. Winter time they have NFL, NBA, NHL, college basketball and football. A little bit of everything. There was a prop on whether Punk Phil would see his shadow or not. There’s been NFL draft, NBA draft cricket.

Wow, Phil seeing his shadow is the easiest gimme ever, since all you have to do is check the sky 15 minutes before it locks!

Oh and if you are picking random stuff don’t always base your choice off the percentages. I think they just make up numbers to mess with ppl.

Really? Interesting. I can see a strategy similar to what you said, regarding getting a streak going. For me, it will be a bit more difficult. I can’t play while at work — any fantasy/game URLs are filtered (government facility). So, best case is get up early enough to make an early pick and continue a later pick when I get home. Therefore, trying to compete for the other game (most in a month) is pointless for me — just can’t get to the site enough during daytime hours; besides that game is just not that important to me. P.S. Tried it today — 2 for 3 picks & a 4th pick (the Nats) later tonight for the fun of it.

Do you own a smartphone?

I got both soccer picks right this morning but messed up with the first baseball prop. Got the 7th or 8th inning prop right and am going with Braves tonight. And if you have a smartphone, theres an app for that.

If you have a smarthphone you can download the app for the game. Also, I must agree with Liber, I pick randomly sort of at the beginning to try and get something going. Once I reach 7 or 8 then I try to put some thought into it. Unfortunately I’ve only reached 8 twice. It’s fun and I feel like I have a much better chance of winning that then BTS. I like both though and will continue to play both. Good luck and we look forward to having you in the group!

No, just dumb phones :). But I’ll be playing for the $50K or $350K next month just the same; so quality is more important than quantity.

Will it be 50K or 350K? Looks to be a couple have an outside chance for the big pot; but will have to be lucky enough with multi-picks over the next 3 days.
Back to BTS: This could be the lowest reset-rate this season, especially if Ichiro gets a hit later. If it winds up being that, then those that fell gotta be kicking themselves.

I don’t think anyone will get there this month. Leader had a shot but “only” got to 25.

Reset was only 9% yesterday. Not too much better than that. I don’t know what today’s rate is at but it can’t be that much better.

With the finished games, reset rate is 3.8% and not many batters left with 10 or more picks that haven’t gotten a hit yet as of right now: Ichiro (4 ABs left?), Kendrick (4 ABs left?), Cuddyer (2 ABs left?) & A.Gordon (4 ABs left?)

Cuddyer is out of the game lifted for a pinch hitter.

If Ichiro can get a hit, the entire Top 15 can sweep safely. :)

Yep, that’s why I think today will be the lowest reset rate this season, if he does get a hit. Basically, today appears to be a freebie from the BTS gods.

I feel so horrible for missing such a golden opportunity today.

The strangest part is that the 2nd hitter I was considering: Michael Cuddyer got yanked from the game early.

So I guess I should not feel too bad.

My picks tend to be the polar opposite of how the rest of the field is doing.

There was a weekend with 3 30%+ resets in a row and I survived all 3 of those and then I cannot get a hit on a day with a 95% success rate.

Think we all know how you feel. I’ve been reset on nites where the reset-rate was in single digits. Though I don’t recall a reset rate as low as what today may be; could be less than 7%

Anyone watching the CWS on ESPN? Great defense in that game. What got my interest was that the SFTS current active leader at 19 picked that game. Score is 1-1 in the 11th.

And just as I post that: SC stealing 2nd base, catcher throws in center field, center fielder throws to 3rd base and it bounces in the stands: runner scores! The SFTS leader has to be cursing

And there is a hit by Ichiro! :)
Today is the 1st Ultimate Success Game Day (USGD) of the season! 10 Thumbs Up (and yes I know no person has more than 2)
After 89 Game days
USGDs 1
SUSGDs 5
SSGDs 33

With that being said if today is a low reset day could tomorrow be a massacre?

If not tomorrow, could be one or two this week. Gotta put the BTS universe back in balance ;)

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