Beat the Streak: Weekend, June 26-28
Today’s recommended picks
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays
26-for-60 (.433 AVG) during 14-G hit streak; 22-for-61 (.361 AVG) vs. left-handed pitchers in ’09
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
.355 AVG since June 1; A’s starter Brett Anderson: .304 AVG against in ’09
Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
9-for-25 (.360 AVG) over past 7 G; .344 AVG lifetime vs. left-handers
Saturday’s recommended picks
Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs
.358 AVG during June; 5-for-11 (.455 AVG) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
7-for-10 (.700 AVG) lifetime vs. Braves starter Javier Vazquez
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
.395 AVG in ’09; Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer: .315 AVG against in ’09
Sunday’s recommended picks
Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
9-for-25 (.360 AVG) over past 7 G
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers
22-for-52 (.423 AVG) vs. left-handers in ’09
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
11-for-15 (.733 AVG) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Joel Pineiro; .395 AVG in ’09
BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56
BTS leader FROD was among the 17.5 percent of fans who went with Seattle speedster Ichiro Suzuki, which turned out to be a fine pick. Ichiro racked up an impressive four hits for the day, boosting FROD’s streak to 39 games.
gozags2008 held steady in second place, at 34 games, as his seclection, Evan Longoria, did not play in the Rays’ win over the Phillies. berret (Ichiro), eltarrant (Joe Mauer) and rzeiter (Ichiro) all extended their streaks to 31 games to hold onto a share of third place.
Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players
1. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): 17.5%, 4-for-5
2. Joe Mauer (MIN): 7.8%, 2-for-5
3. Derrek Lee (CHC): 5.9%, 0-for-4
4. Chase Utley (PHI): 4.4%, 1-for-4
5. Kevin Youkilis (BOS): 3.1%, 0-for-1
I think I figured out why no one has won so far. It is similar to a quote I have read about weather forecasting: “You could have a perfect forecast for every town in the United States, but the model would not finish running until two days after it happens.”
I think the same thing applies here. There are literally hundreds of variables that you could analyze and dozens of possible players to pick. In order to find TRULY the best pick for each day, you would theoretically need to watch every game for each of these players and maybe any game even played, to have a true handle on where each player is in his boom and bust cycle.
For example, a 3 for 5 for Ichiro often consists of a bunt single, an infield single, and a chopper up the middle. But we know Ichiro does this consistently, so it is not an outlier, but for a .280 hitter who was hot, this could be his final gasp. However, the box score will not show that.
Every player has a different boom and bust length. Some players are red-hot for one week normally and then ice off just as fast. Some players stay warm for 6 weeks and then cool for 6 weeks. Some players bunch all their hits into 2 and 3-hit games and bunch all their hits into 0 for 5’s.
Some players have strong home/road or day/night contrasts. Others are more consistent. Some dominate opposing teams over the years, even if the players are completely different.
It would take hours to pore over all these various combinations and the end result might not be a whole lot higher than your current winning percentage: 95% VS 75%. However, if you are going to rack up enormous streaks, you need that 95%.
However, there is only so much time you can spend analyzing. For any given day, the MOST time you can have is 34 hours and that is taking into account the 1105 AM start before the Boston Marathon and the 935 PM start one night about 5 or 6 years ago that was the first game of the night, being back to back, which they were obviously not.
And that is not taking into account that you would need to watch all the games, crunch all the numbers, come up with a pick, enter it, sleep sometime?, and then repeat the process all over again.
Even in the postseason when I work a lot harder, I feel myself ready to collapse, especially at the end of the divisional series. It is probably humanly impossible to do that for 181 out of 184 days. And I probably only put in about 20-25% of the time that you would need to spend to figure out every possible combination.
You have to cut corners somewhere and you do that, by picking 2 or 3 angles that you consistently use. I definitely think that that is a better strategy than picking just hitters over .300 for example, but this strategy is flawed also, because these things need to be taken into account also.
The less factors you use, the more prone your streak is to get snapped by the missing factors. Eventually, error creeps into every system, but those errors are controlled much more easily, if you take everything into account, but if you only consider a few factors, then error can accumulate much more rapidly.
I had been slumping a little lately, so my analysis came up with Alberto Callaspo, and he doubled in the 2nd inning, so I like that I got underway with a niche pick there!
I’ll tell you what this game will take without all the analysis stuff…it’s gonna take somebody to go out of the box at some points during their streak to 57. No one will ever get to 57 taking the obvious pick every single day or somebody would have won by now. One of today’s obvious picks? Figgins. Against the pitcher who I think had the highest ERA in today’s games. But unless he gets a hit in the bottom of the 8th/top of the 9th the leader will fall. Champion_88, if you take guys like Callaspo one too many times I don’t think you’ll last long in this game. I personally think people can’t be afriad to take some of the best hitters even when they’re facing one of the best pitchers.
Isn’t that a contradiction though? Or did figgins have great numbers against that pitcher? I would of picked Hunter or Abreu if i had to pick an angel. Figgins seems to be an out of the box pick that failed.
Nobody had good numbers but it was the obvious pick because he’s been the hottest Angel hitter (so Hunter & Abreu probably got overlooked) and was facing the pitcher with the highest ERA. Take those two things into consideration and I’m not surprised Figgins was the 2nd most popular pick.
Well I like to try to use the more obscure guys, when my streak is only at like 2, because there is very little bust potential.
Plus, since you say that no one will get to 57, using all the obvious picks, sometimes I want to try building up a 5-10 game streak with odd guys, in order to save the top guys for when my streak is stronger.
But it really depends on how my analysis of the day goes. If I come up with a top hitter on a small streak, I will still use him, as I would on a big streak. But if I come up with a more obscure hitter on a top streak, I am more likely to try and reject him, in favor of a more established hitter, even if he is less favorable for this matchup overall.
I am unsure if this strategy is correct though.
Today, I went with Andrew McCutchen, which seems to be an obscure pick, but that is what my analysis came up with.
I think I see what you’re doing, good luck. I’m starting my streak over today with a new approach that I hope I stick with. I tend to have an idea of what I wanna do and then I’ll get sucked into taking another guy and lose my streak.
I was amazed today of how many people picked Mauer. 2nd at 7.8% some of the leaders too.
You can see lately that he is regressing, he has been catching everyday and is bound for a day off especially after a night game last night. There is no DH were he played today and by picking him you are in danger that he pinch hits. Guess what? 0 for 1.
Sometimes I really dont understand how these people reach 30+ streaks….
Gamara, that is an excellent point. It pisses me off to say people who just signed up this year for it get to 45 and over 30 when I have been playing since it first started and I can’t get to 20. My all time high is 13 and that’s a shame but I’m hoping for better luck this time.
Vinny I wish you all the luck. I am at 17 right now. My alltime high is 20. Actually I have had a good run with 37/38 as these two runs are back to back. My miss was Ordonez vs Buehrle. If I remember correctly 10 for 20 lifetime 0 for 3 that day. It was a out of the box pick as swagger says. For me opposing pitcher has to be the first consideration…..
I agree with you vinny, I been playin since this first came out and my longest streak is only 14. I try to stay away from guys like Pujols simply because he walks too many times. Try to go with high average leadoff hitters like Juan Pierre or Freddy Sanchez.
I am not picking Pujols anymore unless I’m absolutely certain he will get a hit that day. It has to be in interleague or against somebody who he owns he will pitch to him. Been burned by him too many times so far this year and won’t be picking him for a while. I tend to stay away from Pierre because he’s very inconsistent. I look at avgs against and also how they are doing recently to get some sort of idea but I always seem to go 0-4 to end all my streaks and that is horrible. Gamara I wish you all the luck in the world and I would love to get to at least 20 and it may happen and who do you have today if you don’t mind my asking? If you want to email it to me you can at Vinny1979 at msn.
Holy crap Vinny! I am going with Pujols today! I really like Braun and Fielder but after seeing their splits day/night and home/away I passed. Teixeira looks ok Livan is pretty bad. Wright also looks good but Wang is overdue for a good game. Suzuki? You know he is going to break and take alot of players with him. I have only picked him once during my streak. Mauer? Pineiro was lights out his last start. Hanley? He might go 0 for two days in a row.
Pujols also does walk a lot and Liriano seems to have gotten it together. I had a hard time today coming with a clearcut pick (if there ever is one…) so I am going with the best hitter there is.
Vinny one more thing. There is so much luck involved in this game and your post proves it! Pujols is my favorite and he has never let me down this year. I picked him 3 times during my 20 game streak and 5 times already during this 17 game streak. He has always come thru (I hope I dont jinx him for today).
Some posters overanalyze too much (champ for example). No offense champ…..
The problem is I tend to go more and more in-depth as my streak gets longer, because if I eventually go 0 for X, I do not want it to be because I shortcutted.
Today, I went with Pablo Sandoval. 1 for 3, with 1 double, before getting taken out, since the Giants were way ahead.
The streak is back underway!
What I really hate seeing is the guys who say that they just fill out the card at once (all 10 days,) then come back and fill it out again, and get to 30+ games.
That REALLY pisses me off.
I do not mind as much, if the guy is in his first year, but still puts a lot of time into it.
Lots of good baseball being played ,last couple weeks