Beat the Streak Report: Monday, April 19

Jackson480BTS.jpg

 

Monday’s recommended picks

Conor Jackson, OF/1B, Diamondbacks
.474 AVG (9-for-19) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Brad Penny

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers
.400 AVG (4-for-10) since ’05 vs. Angels starter Joel Pineiro

David DeJesus, OF, Royals
.429 AVG (3-for-7) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow

BTS all-time leader: Michael Karatzia, 49
MLB all-time leader: Joe DiMaggio, 56

Yesterday’s results

We had a big-time streak breaker yesterday with Albert Pujols’ hitless game against the Mets. A hefty 19 percent of BTS users went with Prince Albert, only to find themselves back at square one following his not-so-regal 0-for-5 performance.

With so many fans forced to start from scratch over the weekend, we’re down to 178 fans tied for the top spot, at 15 games. That’s still a pretty hearty number, but we’re sure to see more seemingly safe picks come up empty in the coming days.

Congrats to those who’ve made it this far without getting nailed by the 0-for whammy.

Yesterday’s Top 5 most selected players

1. Albert Pujols (STL): 19.0%, 0-for-5
2. Ryan Braun (MIL): 7.6%, 1-for-5
3. Matt Holliday (STL): 5.7%, 3-for-3
4. Derek Jeter (NYY): 5.6%, 0-for-0
5. Derrek Lee (CHC): 4.0%, 0-for-5

46 Comments

I won’t be researching picks for awhile since I’m at 0. I have Pedroia for today. Ichiro won’t get a hit.

Why quitting the research?

Pujols was not a safe pick yesterday.

I have no idea what 19% of users were thinking.

Mourning guys.

I’m going with Ichiro tonight and its more based on numbers and the pitcher than it is the batter.
That being said Ichi numbers are nothing to scoff at…
Batting .365 career vs Bal, batting .329 vs Righties,
Batting .334 at home and .331 in night games. and he’s 4-11 vs Berg

Bergeson has given up 15 hits in 7.2 innings of work this season. ( 1.9 hits/ inning)

Taking my chances with perfect on line, I’m confident with my pick.

M

Guys, you have to stay away from the big guns like Pujols. They are way too streaky and go for games on end without even a legit at-bat.

I’m currently at 13 games and here’s my strategy:

I look for when really good teams play really bad ones and pick from that group. Once in a while i’ll use my rotation of Utley, Mauer, Ichiro, Ethier, Kemp and Jeter.

Seems to work for me

Well thanks for nothing Dustin. :)

Did I miss the memo on picking Ichiro for today?? If he doesn’t hit A LOT of players are in for a world of hurt, especially the leaders.

Good luck all!!

two people, at 15, are showing to not make pics.
Seems the majority of people today did in fact pick Ichiro

43% of the 178 leaders have picked Suzuki compared to 17% of the whole. Interesting……

DLee lets me down yesterday (as do the Cubs as an organization…..lol). Streak halted at 8, back to square 1.

Pedroia has already broken some leaders’ hearts this morning.

Everyone who rolled with Podsednik is SOL for the day. He’s tending to a family emergency and won’t make it back to Toronto until tomorrow. Look at the bright side, though. You could’ve taken Pedroia.

skater242@gmail.com- Congrats on your streak. :-)

I picked Pena and thank god he got a hit. His hit starts my streak again. Utley took me out yesterday.

The Rays are hitting very well lately.

I started out the season 5-0. I am not finding that it’s been tough to restart my streak over.

Good luck to everyone who are waiting for the night games.

Whoops, I meant that it’s been tough to restart my streak.

I hope the rising sun shines on “The Man From Japan” Ichirio today.
Tip of the Day – If you aren’t doing this start to do it for good information.
On the red bar that runs across the top of the home page, click in the word Schedule. When you get to the next screen you will see the games for today and pitcher names in Blue. Put your cursor over the name of the pitcher you want to view and a bubble appears with information about how that pitcher has done recently. The info is very good to read unlike “The Pick of the Day.”
I try not to pick players who had an 0-fer the day before. Figuring that that game may have been the beginning of a slump.
Today Pedrioa had an 0-fer today that followed his O-fer on Sunday. Many people today took Pedroia and Ordonez who both had 0-fers on Sunday.
I’m a Cub fan and would encourage you to stay away from them for now. Their hitting is inconsistent.

I’m atop the leaderboard and I have a strategy that’s seems to be a good one. I don’t look at the picks of the day, or any other suggested players, I do my own research. Ichiro is money in the bank tonight. Normally I don’t like taking home teams, for the fact that they may only get 8 innings to hit, but I couldn’t pass on him. I guarentee a hit tonight and tomorrow, after that it’s time to dig deep.

Drag
Agreed, Let the Sun shine.
Thats a neat little bit of info, way more informative than just looking at the pick o the day info. Thank you, one more page to do research with.

M

I thought I’d try to post, daily, the top 12 pick percentages for the Top 2500 (100 pages of BTS leaders). Though I missed the first game this AM, the following are the 12 most picked for the remainder of the day. Sometimes interesting when compared to what the BTS Results page shows; though that page is for the entire BTS, not just the Top 2500. Only counts the current streak holders.
Player, Times Picked, Percentage of 2500
Ichiro Suzuki, 860, 34.4%
Frankliin Gutierrez, 221, 8.84%
Albert Pujols, 214, 8.56%
David DeJesus, 121, 4.84%
Magglio Ordonez, 97, 3.88%
Scott Podsednik, 96, 3.84%
Carlos Gonzalez, 65, 2.6%
Matt Holliday, 50, 2.0%
Todd Helton, 45, 1.8%
Pablo Sandoval, 36, 1.44%
Miguel Cabrera, 35, 1.4%
Jacoby Ellsbury, 34, 1.36%

^^ Hmmm, the preview of what I typed didn’t look like that. Will do it a bit different tomorrow.

Oops & yes, Boston (Ellsbury) already played, here’s the 12th most picked:
Connor Jackson, 31, 1.24%

Got some time, so trying to do this again for formatting. Trying copy & pasting now; and I see I skipped Torri in first attempt:

Player, Times Picked, Percentage of Top 2500
Ichiro Suzuki 860 34.4%
Franklin Gutierrez 221 8.84%
Albert Pujols 214 8.56%
David DeJesus 121 4.84%
Magglio Ordonez 97 3.88%
Scott Podsednik 96 3.84%
Carlos Gonzalez 65 2.6%
Matt Holliday 50 2.0%
Todd Helton 45 1.8%
Torii Hunter 41 1.64%
Pablo Sandoval 36 1.44%
Miguel Cabrera 35 1.4%

I can’t believe 4 of the top 5 picked Crawford against Lackey today…. That in my opinion took guts… but again I’m not at the top of the leader board….. I’m a bit scared about Ichiro tonight… going with Gutierrez… LOL everyone

“Once in a while i’ll use my rotation of Utley, Mauer, Ichiro, Ethier, Kemp and Jeter.

Seems to work for me”

The only problem with Ethier is he does not seem to start all the time.

Every time I look at him for a lefty hitter on the Dodgers, I see him having significantly fewer AB’s than Furcal and Kemp.

“I try not to pick players who had an 0-fer the day before. Figuring that that game may have been the beginning of a slump.
Today Pedrioa had an 0-fer today that followed his O-fer on Sunday. Many people today took Pedroia and Ordonez who both had 0-fers on Sunday.”

That is funny because I tend to favor those hitters if they were hot right before hand.

I just view the 0 for as a “correction factor” against an insanely high batting average.

Cue Edgar Renteria last weekend hitting .68X going into the game and then going 0 for 5, despite the Giants scoring 8 runs.

Back-to-back 0 for’s normally signal a slump, unless you are Ichiro or if the team is facing some really good pitching.

That is why I would not necessarily dismiss Pedroia yet, since the Red Sox pretty much were totally shut down this weekend by the Rays.

If he goes 0 for against the new team though, I would take him out of the hot category though.

I do think Magglio Ordonez is cooling off though.

If I did my calculations correctly, 171 players dropped from the top 2500 either due to unlucky picks or “no selection”. Don’t know which because I failed to pull down the current selections before the 1st game was updated in BTS. Couple more days like yesterday and a streak of 5 or 6 will get you on the final few pages!

“I’m atop the leaderboard and I have a strategy that’s seems to be a good one. I don’t look at the picks of the day, or any other suggested players, I do my own research. Ichiro is money in the bank tonight. Normally I don’t like taking home teams, for the fact that they may only get 8 innings to hit, but I couldn’t pass on him. I guarentee a hit tonight and tomorrow, after that it’s time to dig deep.”

One thing to try and do there is to just take 3 hitters lower in the order for road teams to compensate.

So a guy hitting 5th on the road has nearly as many opportunities as a guy hitting 2nd at home.

“Jacoby Ellsbury, 34, 1.36%”

He is back in the lineup?

I thought he was still out with the groin injury?

“^^ Hmmm, the preview of what I typed didn’t look like that. Will do it a bit different tomorrow.”

Yeah, MLB has some asinine formatting for the posts. Apparently, 2 empty lines only equals 1 empty line in the post.

And then on the MLB articles, all spacing is ignored, making the comments very difficult to read and follow.

Their technology there is from like 1995.

“If I did my calculations correctly, 171 players dropped from the top 2500 either due to unlucky picks or “no selection”. Don’t know which because I failed to pull down the current selections before the 1st game was updated in BTS. Couple more days like yesterday and a streak of 5 or 6 will get you on the final few pages!”

Na, that will not happen until it is impossible to get to 57.

There is a steady stream of new players to fill in those snapped streaks every day.

Regading Ellsbury; not officially on DL yet so ppl can still pick him and obviously some did. That brings up a thought….

Some unlucky ways to have your streak end.
1. Rain shortened game, 2 at bats only
2. Strikeout, argue with ump, get thrown out in 1st inning.
3. Four at-bats, 3 walks and then strikeout or sac fly
4. Pinch hit in 9th against a great closer
5. Groundout in 1st, come up lame trying to leg it out

lavilperb – Answers to your questions:
1. Check out the weather report before making your selection each day.
2. This happened last year to Joey Votto and someone lost a 30+ streak.
3. How do you spell P U J O L S
4. Day game after a night game = Todd Helton
5. Manny Ramirez, Alphonso Soriano or as if anyone would be crazy enough to take him, Milton Bradley.
As you play longer you have a vast knowledge of “factiods” saved up in your brain – very scary!
Tuesday – Take a look ar Rafael Furcal of LAD, 4-7 lifetime v. Reds Homer Baily, bats leadoff, LAD have a big lineup which could mean 5 at bats, switch hitter, batting .327, free swinger.

hey for those of you who arent in the group and are posting here, come join us. under groups. look for “the bloggers” and if that doesnt come up, look up “bloggers” and join the rest of us who post and blog here

domo arigato – Ichirio
Vinny – Furcal, Jeter?(is he over his cold?), Ichirio, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Franklin Gutierrez – I’m going to sleep on this one. My head is spinning here.
Joe Mauer looks good on paper but he is on my do not pick list as are Pujols and Votto.
btle – Who do you like?

Well Carlos Gonzalez ended 65 streaks tonight already. 0-4 day.

Lind, Hawpe, D.Lee Francoeur & Theriot totals another 104 that end today. Ichiro, F.Guitierrez and Sir Albert will be the biggies today; one way or the other.

Regarding Votto’s ejection last year, I too remember that and thought to myself — that bites, glad I didn’t pick him.

Well, now its up to Sir Albert & Guitierrez. Glad I picked Ichiro today; ******** streak of 5 — gotta start somehow.

Well Ichiro already got a double so you are all safe that picked Ichiro.

I’m going to start listening now. I have Mauer tomorrow and like my odds but what does Dragbunt think?

options for tomorrow include. hanley ramirez 10-for-28 .357 against brett myers. dan uggla 14-for-37 .378 avg also against myers. matt holliday 5-for-11 .455 against Haren. votto is the same 5-for-11 .455 against billingsley. garrett atkins is 5-for-7 .714 against jason vargas. chipper 6-for-13 .462 against Kendrick, but batting only .233 for the year.

there are some ideas. and as always there is Ichiro

Tuesday’s games dont lock till 7PM Eastern. so that gives ya alot of time to second guess your picks.

Backrubs – Second guessing is a dangerous thing to do.
Word to the wise: I will usually put in a name the night before as a place holder until the next day. But today(Monday) I picked last night because of the 11am game. You never know what could happen to your computer or the MLB site. Remember tests in school Choose: A, B, C or D? In school your first choice was usually your best choice, same in BTS too.
Hasta Manana to all

I got my streak back up to 1 thanks to Cabrera and I agree with you about your first choice. It’s always right no matter how bad you feel about it Dragbunt. Have a good night Drag and see you tomorrow.

Well, after yesterday’s 1133 of the Top 2500 that were reset, today was relatively quiet. Just 432 were reset, with one extra inning game left to play tonight. In that game 42 Top 2500 positions remain in jeopardy:
Adrian Gonzalez 29 picks
Bengie Molina 10 picks
Chase Headley 2 picks
Eugenio Velez 1 pick

Hey backrubs,

Thanks for the invitation. I joined the group. How come I am at zero although my streak is at 6?

gamara when you join a group your current/longest streaks start at zero. Sucks but that’s how mlb does it.

Dragbunt, I just saw your post about Jeter and Jeter is playing tonight. He is feeling better and he had a head cold. I’m sticking with Mauer but why he is on your do not pick list Drag? That is interesting.

“domo arigato – Ichirio
Vinny – Furcal, Jeter?(is he over his cold?), Ichirio, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Franklin Gutierrez – I’m going to sleep on this one. My head is spinning here.
Joe Mauer looks good on paper but he is on my do not pick list as are Pujols and Votto.
btle – Who do you like?”

I think he means that list contained his possible picks for the day.

Just an observation, as of this morning, 5 May 2010, the most regular season games played by any team is 28…how is it possible that two individuals have a streak of 31 and one person has a streak of 30? Did “Beat The Streak” include spring training games? just curious…

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