Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, July 20

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It was Gravy Train Monday in Streakland, as the day’s top four picks
— Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford and Ichiro Suzuki — each
hit safely to up the streaks of 42.9 percent of all streakers nationwide
combined.

Ryan Braun was the night’s biggest Negative Nelly, as his 0-for-4 vs.
Jeff Karstens and the Pirates bullpen erased 6.5 percent of all streaks
— including our leader, “ftwaynealbert”, and his 34-gamer.

With a full slate of games scheduled for Tuesday, all the top dogs are
ripe for the taking. But as things peculiarly stand, there aren’t as
many top tasty options as one would imagine.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Adam Jones:
.333 AVG (6-for-18) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza

? Jason
Giambi
:.533 AVG (8-for-15) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Nate
Robertson

? Jose Lopez:
.421 AVG (8-for-19) lifetime vs. White Sox starter John Danks

? Jack Cust:
.455 AVG (10-for-22) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield

? Corey
Patterson
: .625 AVG (5-for-8) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt
Garza

? Michael
Cuddyer
: .385 AVG (5-for-13) lifetime vs. Indians starter Justin
Masterson

Feeling kinda spicy?

? Marco
Scutaro
: .545 AVG (6-for-11) lifetime vs. Athletics starter
Dallas Braden

? Jeff
Keppinger
: .458 AVG (11-for-24) lifetime vs. Ryan Dempster

You’ll thank me later …

? Nick
Markakis
: .143 AVG (4-for-28) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt
Garza

? Lance
Berkman
: .167 AVG (5-for-30) since ’05 vs. Cubs starter Ryan
Dempster

? James
Loney
: .200 AVG (4-for-20) lifetime vs. Giants starter Tim
Lincecum

? Carlos
Gonzalez
: .111 AVG (1-for-9) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Nate
Robertson

Leaderboard time!

With “ftwaynealbert” fallen on the sword, or new leader is “cwlarson”,
who is riding a 31-game streak after Miguel Cabrera’s fruitful night.

“cwlarson” is officially 54.4 percent on the way to the big bucks and
living a life of bathtubs overflowing with Whole Foods guacamole.

Top MLB streakers

? Buster
Posey
: 13 games

? Ian
Kinsler
: 12 games

? Adam Lind:
12 games

? Placido
Polanco
: 11 games

? Johnny
Damon
: 10 games 

68 Comments

Well guys, my streak went on thanks to Wright’s 2 for 3 night and today I have chosen Crawford. Never faced Arrieta but he is hitting the O’s at a .360 clip with 9 hits. Righthanders at a .357 clip with 82 hits and on the road at a .328 clip with 12 hits so that is my pick. Good luck to all today. I also have Yanks in Survivor and Votto in HR BTS.

Vinny – Good luck today!
I like Crawford – thanks for the tip
HR – Pujols v. Moyer the MLB leader in HR’s surrenedered.
Survivor – NYY, Cards, Reds, Braves, ChiSox are white hot too – WOW?
Calling for Bad weather in Chgo later today so I’m stayong away from the Cub game.
White Sox hitters v. M’s look promising but do not go against Danks. He has been super lately. Lefty Danks v. Ichrio – be careful.

see i like crawford but i dnt like picking the same guy 2 nights in a row so im liking crawford 2morrow but as for tonight i like Rickie Weeks against the weak pirates in Pitt cuz earlier in the year when he faced brad lincoln he went 2-2 before lincoln was pulled nd the pirates pen dont scare me either so i mean i think ima go with rickie weeks to get me to 13 tonight!!

I like the Twins vs. Masterson matchup tonight. Taking a look at Span, Hudson, and Mauer. Leaning towards Hudson as he’s been hot lately. Any thoughts?

Well finally after 3 straight picks with O’fers Mauer finally got me going again. My last 4 picks are 1 for 18 with 2 walks :(

BTS: Nick Swisher because he’s on a tear lately
HR: Pujols
Surv: Giants

I wouldn’t choose any Yankees as they are facing a guy making his first ever start and we know what happens when guys make their first start. They shut the team down.

I changed back to my original pick in Survivor which are the Rangers. Hunter is way too hot right now.

I changed back to my original pick in Survivor which are the Rangers. Hunter is way too hot right now.

Yeah I’m taking chances with the Swisher pick. But he’s been excellent so I’ve got a lot of faith in him

Good afternoon everyone!!! I hope everyone has settled on their picks, although there is still five hours until picks are locked. I have finally decided on mine and I am going with Marco Scutaro tonight to get me to 15. He is hitting Dallas Braden at a .545 clip (6-11) and he bats lead-off with the game on the road tonight. I know Braden threw a perfect game earlier but he hasn’t been stellar otherwise. GL to everyone else tonight and hopefully we’ll all be successful.

@sjfinfan

I agree, I was thinking along the same lines. I’m going to go with Span, given that he’s the healthiest of the three Twins you mentioned.

Guerrero & Phillips OOL today

“switched from Mark Teixeira to Miguel Cabrera” Hunter owns the RHBs. He is owned by LHBs but neither Damon nor Boesch look appetizing.

If there is a pitcher that can stop MCab it is Hunter.

@respy
Actually leaning away from Swan. Hudson is .390 in his last 10 and Mauer is hitting decently lately. Just not sure. Maybe Hudson?

I was thinking Scutaro too, but I don’t know, Boston hitters are notorious for crushing my streaks.

Went with Scutaro anyway on account of my streak is only 2.

i think ima go josh hamilton to get me to 9 games!! but scutaro sounds like a risky pick to me…i feel braden id due but wat do i know..lol

I agree with vinny. I avoid new pitchers too so I’m not taking any Yankees (switched from Mark Teixeira to Miguel Cabrera). The one exception is when I picked Swisher in June due to his numbers off Guthrie. The Orioles did a DIRTY trick and switched to Arrieta who then made his debut, 0 fered Swisher, and broke my 17 game hit streak. The entire Yankees got 4 hits that game and the change caused my Yankees survivor pick that day to lose also. Speaking of Arrieta who I avoid now like any other new pitcher he is pitching tonight so I’d skip the Rays as well.
I’m taking either the Cardinals or Reds in survivor. As for the Home run game I switched yesterday’s pick from Albert Pujols to Ryan Howard based on Howard being hot and Pujols not having homered since the break. Guess who homered and who didn’t and guess who has 11 straight 0 homer picks i that miserable game. How does anyone (3 people) get 8 in a row? I can’t reach 2 in that game!

I didn’t find the top2500 really that helpful. It was basically rehashing of what the MLB gives you with the exception of higher concentration of “hot bats”. It really is immaterial what picks people with 9,10,11… streaks are making. They’re just as clueless as most of us. Everyday, about 20% of the streakers will be lose streak and more move in. Its a revolving door with different streakers but same streaks.

I am more interested in hearing what system lavolpe was working on. The one with using 7 days of data.

@yanksgiantsdevils
I am going with Longo vs Arrietta tonight. I’ve gone 3-3 or 4-4 vs him this year. I also picked in that Yankee ge but had cano or jeter ( who was good ) Baltimore is just an all around weak team and I continue what I said yesterday picking against them all this week. Add in the fact that it’s so nice and toasty warm in MD (90+), any hit balls into outfield have the chance to carry yard. I’m also going tb in survivor. Switched from the Bronx bombers as well.
As fir HR, I’ve given up, but congrats to “abby4″ on getting to 8.

@champ88 u asked yesterday how we would keep track of highest blogger. Right now it’s still Blanco with 23.

As you read yesterday LaVolpe will be relaxing and takin family time fir the remainder of the season. That being said I will be continueing on with the top2500 and top bloggers posts in his absence. Therefore untill fri or sat when LaV sends me the program I’ll just do some quick posts about leaders and bloggers picks.

GL to all tonight.

@All. Yepper, I’m gone. No, really, this is just a faint whisper of what was :)
@00Liber/Vinny1979. Check your emails. Ok, now I’m gone.

I knew I should have switched to Elvis Andrus, had a strong feeling he would get a hit in his first at bat.

@btsPlayer. Not defending the Top2500. It was originally designed so I can download the entire BTS season’s picks and analyze for potential strategies (later realized kind of a wasted idea). It also was something more of curiosity for most — “how many picked the same player as me?” “If a player didn’t hit, how many died with him?” Stuff like that. The Blogger Group Top2500 was a bit of a courtesy since I was part of that group.
Regarding my strategy… if I ever win, I’ll release it to the world. But until then it needs some refinement and is customized to my personal biases/fears. Again, good luck all. Will be trying it again tomorrow & testing it against my 20-gamer & hopefully higher. I only happened to pull this page up so I can let 00Liber/Vinny know the program is in their emails and saw your post; so I thought I’d reply. Well, GL to all but the leaders & I’m anxiously awaiting my re-entrance into the Top2500 if I’m so lucky.

Highest no selection is tomcat826 (on page 3) with a streak of 21 is going back to 0.
There a smaller/bigger surprise depending on the way you look at it. In survivor the leader “cheryltorres2001″ at 16 has no selection, he/she is heading straight to 0.

Ya baby Rickie Weeks got an rbi single in the 2nd but hes gna need alot more with them down 10-3!! lol im at 13 now tho

Swisher just homered his first at bat. I’m good for today. Up to 2 for BTS

Crawford exits after taking ball to groin in first.
Carl Crawford left after taking a pickoff attempt to the groin in the first inning.
Vinny – Crawford is out of the game.

“today I have chosen Crawford. Never faced Arrieta”

I try to stay away from Arrieta since he held the Yanks to 5 hits over 7-8 IP? earlier in the year and had another great outing as well, so I have not gotten a feel for him yet.

I wonder if he will turn into another Aaron Laffey?

“I like the Twins vs. Masterson matchup tonight. Taking a look at Span, Hudson, and Mauer. Leaning towards Hudson as he’s been hot lately. Any thoughts?”

I looked at Hudson, but I found a really good angle with Byrd, so I went with him.

i wont leave the group but i guess i havent been blogging that long so it dont matter anyways..lol..but i have only a 2 now 3 on there but rly i have a 13 now!! i play till seasons end

“I was thinking Scutaro too, but I don’t know, Boston hitters are notorious for crushing my streaks.”

Yeah, Scutaro snapped a 9-gamer of mine earlier in the season and then I promptly went on another 8-game hitting streak.

“The entire Yankees got 4 hits that game ”

That is precisely why I avoid facing Arrieta now, since the only other time this year I can remember the Yankees collecting less than 6 hits in a game is against Felix Hernandez.

“How does anyone (3 people) get 8 in a row? I can’t reach 2 in that game!”

That game rewards a lot of intense research, but the problem is that there are certain days where the system comes up with nothing, so you need to be really good about anticipating players getting sent down and picking those in advance or finding those reserve players that you know are not going to play.

i cant believe what just happened…….. Crawford gone after 1 at bat…….. This is BS…… I am starting to hate this game

Every single person I thought about picking has gotten a hit so far, Scutaro better come through because this is agonizing.

@gamara21

what was your streak at?

Miguel Cabrera got a double for me.
For those that took Crawford, I took Manny Ramirez when I was on a 9 game streak because he was 15 for 30 off Jon Garland he didn’t start, pinch hit in the 5th inning, struck out and was removed from the game. Make that 15 for 31 and I fell right back to 0 because of that stint.

“I didn’t find the top2500 really that helpful. It was basically rehashing of what the MLB gives you with the exception of higher concentration of “hot bats”. It really is immaterial what picks people with 9,10,11… streaks are making. They’re just as clueless as most of us.”

I found it helpful to remind you about who is hitting well and see how the better players are getting it done.

Also, it helps filter out the “I am only at 2 so I will use this player, even though I know it is a bad pick, since I can watch this game today, I need something to do tonight, etc.”

This game sure is tough.

“@champ88 u asked yesterday how we would keep track of highest blogger. Right now it’s still Blanco with 23. ”

yeah, I know he is still leading, but it makes me sad to see someone who was with us for over 1/2 the year, be permanently removed from the records.

I know that during the winter, there will be days where I want to go back and look through the blogger groups through all the names and I hope it does not become a precedent that more and more people will start leaving the group as it becomes later and later into the season.

“As you read yesterday LaVolpe will be relaxing and takin family time fir the remainder of the season. That being said I will be continueing on with the top2500 and top bloggers posts in his absence. Therefore untill fri or sat when LaV sends me the program I’ll just do some quick posts about leaders and bloggers picks.

GL to all tonight.”

Not sure why Lav could not have posted the top 2500 through then, since he claimed it would only took 10 minutes a day?

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the leaders and bloggers’ picks for today?

“@btsPlayer. Not defending the Top2500. It was originally designed so I can download the entire BTS season’s picks and analyze for potential strategies (later realized kind of a wasted idea).”

Why is it a wasted idea?

Can somebody tell me what happened with Crawford as I see he is already gone. He was such a great pick too.

“Can somebody tell me what happened with Crawford as I see he is already gone. He was such a great pick too.”

The Gameday claimed he has an injured groin.

Carl Crawford just took down a whole bunch of streaks. :-(

@whbird
was at 9…..not anymore

The video of Crawford’s “injury” is on MLB.com. Don’t look if you are squeemish. OUCH! I got hit like that with a 16 inch softball on a line drive while playing first base when I was a kid. There was a man on first and he screened me from the line drive off the bat of a lefty who was at the plate. As you can see I am having a hard time remembering exactly what happened! :) Talk about seeing STARS!

FYI – I took Brewers in Survivor – Don’t count them out by any means. The game was stopped in the middle of the 5th inning for a 12 minute half-time show. The Brew Crew received the 2nd half kick off and are only down one field goal. :)

@all. Hey sorry bout not having top 2500 up today. I got the program from LaV but am having some issues with it. Hopefully I can put some numbers up tommorow for you all.

@jimdaven. The program were using is just to know most picked players. The rules are refering to any created programs that would allow someone to create numerous accounts and use the pick to pick players.

I mightvw just caught a lucky break in bts bal just tied it in bottom of ninth so longo might come around again.
However I also have rays in survivor.

“Not sure why Lav could not have posted the top 2500 through then, since he claimed it would only took 10 minutes a day?

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the leaders and bloggers’ picks for today?”

I remember reading somewhere in the BTS rule about not writing programs/scripts or something. I skimmed through it quickly so I could be wrong. I sure don’t want to lose out the grand prize because I violated their policy.

This game is really tough. I almost chose Crawford tonight.

Bta player I will say this again. My highest ever streak in 10 years is 13. I will get their again in two weeks. My second choice Hererra got a hit.

@00liber – You should check with MLB or at the guy who writes this blog. I can’t imagine MLB being very keen on you using a program to comb through their copyrighted stuff.

I just went to re-read the rules and the paragraph below can be interpreted in all kinds of ways:

“CAUTION: ANY ATTEMPT BY A PARTICIPANT TO DELIBERATELY DAMAGE ANY WEB SITE OR UNDERMINE THE CONTENT OR LEGITIMATE OPERATION OF THE CONTEST IS A VIOLATION OF CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LAWS AND SHOULD SUCH AN ATTEMPT BE MADE, MLBAM WILL DISQUALIFY ANY SUCH PARTICIPANT AND…”

@jimdaven33. Your post was brought to my attention.
I wrote the app & I can assure you and anyone else it doesn’t damage any website, does not even mess with the content of the site or any web page, and definitely does not interfere with the operation of the contest. It simply downloads the 100 pages and parses the information from them. Same as if you manually navigated to each of the 100 pages and saved it to disk; only it does it via software vs manual actions. End of story.

@lavolpe or 00liber – Check with MLB or ask the guy who writes this blog. See what they say. I thought I was talking to 00liber before. I bet you will get a different answer. I know because I work in a law firm and the content providers are very protective of anything that has to do with their websites. Something like this I imagine MLB’s legal dept. getting upset with.

So my streak just ended with Cano today. What a surprise. Today was a tough picking. My highest streak this year is 9. I almost got their today but I am not upset. It was just one of those day. I should gone with JHamil. I thoght he be tired from last night’s long game. LOL. not at all. Not too tired to hit more HRs. I am gonna start a new strategy. Pick only the absolutely nobodies. No more hot hitters or nothing. They carry me but they kill me.

All my major kills this year: Cano, Tejeda, Suzuki, Suzuki, Mauer, etc. None of my non-popular picks killed me this year. So popular pick approach is not working. I was gonna really stick with Feix Pie today. I had a gut feeling he was gonna come through after almost screwing me yesterday. I went with the safe pick of Cano. Thought him hitting well @ home against the right @ night would equal at least a hit. No. I should have listened to dragbunt’s warning about a new pitcher. Blow.

All my major kills this year: Cano, Tejeda, Suzuki, Suzuki, Mauer, etc. None of my non-popular picks killed me this year. So popular pick approach is not working. I was gonna really stick with Feix Pie today. I had a gut feeling he was gonna come through after almost screwing me yesterday. I went with the safe pick of Cano. Thought him hitting well @ home against the right @ night would equal at least a hit. No. I should have listened to dragbunt’s warning about a new pitcher. Blow.

Wow. Crawford out after 1 AB??? He got hit by a ball in the ball area. This is too funny. Poor vinny1979. He did something like this last year too. Does anybody remember. It was little further into the season and I remember exited after 1AB. I think he was sliding into a base or diving for the ball. He was out like 2 to 3 days after that.

This guy is Votto #2. Votto does it with his mouth and Crawford with his body.

Wow. some resolve on the part of Orioles today. They’re finally showing some “balls” after hitting Crawford in that area.

Another wow. Another almost no hitter by Danks. What is up with WSox pitchers.

This game is a joke. I give up! OK. Danks throws 1 hitter though 7 2/3 innings. Then Ichiro gets a hit off him. Danks OWNS Ichiro. I think he is the only pitcher to own him. So Ichiro blows for me in all other times but he comes through @ the most improbable time for him. This is insane!

THIS IS A REAL EMERGNECY NOT A WARNING.
As I mentioned a few days ago. Do not play in any game, BTS, HR or Survivor against the ChiSox who are white hot.
I live in Chgo and I am a Cub fan but I see the paper every day and keep up with the WSox. They are “en fuego.”
Play the ChiSox hitters though: Rios is hot for BTS or HR and they are a nice pick for Survivor too. Can they sweep the M’s and Hernandez(?).

@dragbunt: I should have listened to you yesterday about the new pitcher theory. You almost swayed me from my bad pick. Darn it.

Joe Mauer OOL

JHamil & HRam may get rest today but not certain.

What happened to Crawford last night has to be the weirdest way and the freakiest way to lose a streak. It’s heartbreaking but that is how the cookie crumbles sometimes but I assure you I will be back up there again by the end of the month. BTS player I was the one who mentioned the new pitcher theory that every time somebody is making their debut they shut the other team out or keep the hit count low. Tex, Cano and Jeter all went 0 fer yesterday just like I thought would happen.

“The game was stopped in the middle of the 5th inning for a 12 minute half-time show.”

What was the real reason for the delay?

“I remember reading somewhere in the BTS rule about not writing programs/scripts or something. I skimmed through it quickly so I could be wrong. I sure don’t want to lose out the grand prize because I violated their policy.”

Even if that were true, you always could just have a friend who does not play the contest at all, post all the information every day.

“This game is a joke. I give up! OK. Danks throws 1 hitter though 7 2/3 innings. Then Ichiro gets a hit off him. Danks OWNS Ichiro. I think he is the only pitcher to own him. So Ichiro blows for me in all other times but he comes through @ the most improbable time for him. This is insane!”

For whatever reason, Ichiro seems to always come through when the team gets 3 or 4 hits total, but when he is in a great matchup, he goes 0 for 4.

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