Beat the Streak Report: Tuesday, July 27

480x270_Ortiz.gif

Let’s just pretend Monday never happened, k?

Here’s the plan:

Create a diversion with our MLB.com fantasy tech team (Hey, guys! Target is having a sale on all Texas Instrument calculators!!),
while I MacGruber around with their computers and flip yesterday’s
results from the system database with the NBA Jam cheatcode for big
head. Sound good?

Hey, desperate times call for desperate measures, and after Monday’s
three most popular selections (Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Joey
Votto) each went hitless to zap the streak of an astounding 36.4 percent
of all of Streakland, it’s officially Desperation Tuesday.

Time for Tuesday’s picks

Oh, hello there …

? Derrek Lee: .500 AVG (17-for-34) lifetime vs. Astros starter Brett Myers

? Ichiro Suzuki: .409 AVG (9-for-22) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Gavin Floyd

? Billy Butler: .400 AVG (12-for-30) lifetime vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano

? Brian Roberts: .500 AVG (5-for-10) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero

? Ryan Braun: .500 AVG (5-for-10) lifetime vs. Reds starter Edinson Volquez

? Hanley Ramirez: .400 AVG (6-for-15) lifetime vs. Giants starter Matt Cain

? David Ortiz: .350 AVG (7-for-20) lifetime vs. Angels starter Jered Weaver

Feeling kinda spicy?

? John Buck: .381 AVG (8-for-21) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Kevin Millwood

You’ll thank me later ...

? Ben Zobrist: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

? Torii Hunter: .136 AVG (3-for-22) lifetime vs. Red Sox starter John Lackey

? Hunter Pence: .192 AVG (5-for-26) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Ted Lilly

Leaderboard time!

“richard.jucksch” escaped the Cano/Jeter/Votto deathtrap by picking Joe
Mauer, who went 5-for-5 last night with a homer and seven RBIs. Way to
get the fans on your side and show off, Jucksch. What next, you gonna
add another consonant to the end of your last name?

Anyway, with Mauer’s hit fiesta, Jucksch is now cruising with a 36-game streak. You’ll be hearing from me today, Richard.

MLB.com’s Ian Kay wrote a great piece
this morning on Florida’s top prospect Logan Morrison, who just got
called up to take Chris Coghlan’s starting spot after a shaving cream
incident gone horribly wrong.

I hate when that happens.

Oh, Kay also rode Derrek Lee to up his streak to 29 games. Rumor has it
that if Kay reaches 30, he’ll be guest blogging tomorrow. And by rumor, I
mean he just told me that.

Top MLB streakers

? Buster Posey: 19 games

? Nelson Cruz: 14 games

? Scott Podsednik: 13 games

? Justin Upton: 12 games

? Michael Cuddyer: 11 games

? Matt Holliday: 11 games

? Luke Scott: 11 games 

54 Comments

I still have time to get to 57 so I’m going to take my time and take it day by day. Josh Hamilton for me today. He is hitting awesome at home and he may not hit Gonzalez great but he is hitting awesome in July and at home. Ryan Howard in HR BTS and Marlins and Josh Johnson in Survivor.

I have had 17 straight homer-less picks in home run beat the streak. Has anyone had a longer streak of ineptness in that game?
After Vladimir Guerrero hit a home run against Oakland on May 12, Robinson Cano did not homer on May 13 and then I did not play from May 14 – July 6. From July 6-26 I have had 16 non homer picks and 1 did not play. My longest streak of the year should be 2 as Justin Morneau homered on May 8 and A-Rod on May 9. However I looked at the 5/8 Morneau pick and a double header trick was done to me. It’s hard enough to get a pick that homers and even worse when a DH keeps you at 0 despite getting a home run and their was no warning of that DH. Morneau homered in his first AB of the first game which would have been a good pick if that had been a single game. As a result my longest streak is in a 7 way tie at 1. As for my streak of futility, my last 17 picks that I’ve made have been homer-less counting the 5/13 Cano pick but not counting 7/21 did not play Morneau pick. Anyone thinks this will reach 30?

Streak of negative 17? I can only say I’ve beat that when I haven’t picked for more than 17 days in a row.
Tip to start HR streak: Pick game in small ballpark, now pick just 1 HR hitter (home or away) for the entire series. If you fail, try again. Unlikely to go more than 1,2,3 series without a HR unless very unlucky. For example, last CHC-STL series, I picked Pujols who homered in last game of series. Before that I focused on Howard. This system seems to work for me. But remember once you get the HR streak started, go back and pick a better option (if necessary) for the next day or two.

@vinny1979. Joined your group last night. Hoping that “competing” against a group who seems to have a large number of people in the top2500 list lately gets my logic back on track — couldn’t be worse though.

Solid strategy for HR BTS via ponyforkeana.
Be careful of Wrigley Field – Plays as a small ball park when wind blows from S – SW. Plays as a large ball park when wind blows N – NE.
Check the web site that give daily weather and wind conditions at all ballparks. This is a great source of info for HR BTS

for BTS HR, picking someone playing at Minute Maid Park is not a bad idea. The crawford boxes are only 315 feet away!

Had my best BTS day ever yesterday. Mauer went 5 for 5, had David Ortiz for 2 HR, and the Jays won. Todays picks:

BTS: Ryan Braun
HR: Kevin Youkilis
Surv: Marlins

Who to pick against Millwood? My gut tells me VW but for some inexplicable reason he has awful #s against him. My guess is the #s are from when Millwood used to be a top dog. Also, looking @ Overbay. Definitely not Hill as MLB suggests.

I still have a bad taste after yesterday, especially after Cano’s 9th inning intentional walk. Going with Mig. Don’t see him going hitless two days in a row. Good luck all!!

I didn’t even notice Youklis has been smoking everyone this month. I think it maybe too late to jump on his wagon. Darn it.

I’ve read ponyforkeana’s and dragbunt104’s posts and I’m taking Ryan Howard for Home run beat the streak and this is the forcast for Citizen’s Bank Park. http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/hourbyhour/38887:20 The wind is coming from the WSW/SW/SSW from 7-10 pm going down from 7 to 5 mph.
I’ve got Placido Polanco on beat the streak (at 0) and the Blue Jays on survivor (at 2).

http://www.weather.com/activities/events/mlb/mlb_team_schedules_seo.html
Great site for ballpark weather and wind conditions.

Tuesday
BTS-Alexi Ramirez of ChiSox – he is batting 2nd tonight and had 3 hits last night v. M’s best pitcher. Should be able to get a hit or 2 v. M’s Rowland-Smith. He is streaky but seems to be on a streak.
HR- Paul Konerko
Survivor – Phils as Hammels is super hot.
Good luck to all………………..

Professor Pete’s Silver Bullet, Lock-of-a-Lifetime, Six-Inch-Putt Special for Tuesday, July 27: Texas right fielder Nelson Cruz vs. Oakland left-hander Gio Gonzalez. …Cruz has hit .414 during his current 14-game hitting streak, with an average of 4.14 plate appearances a game. He has hit .349 this month, and is .377 against left-handers, .355 at home, and .337 at night. He has hit in every start after a day off (5 for 5). Gonzalez, in four starts this month, has given up 27 hits in 23 2/3 innings, and 22 hits in 17 innings over his last three starts. His ERA against right-handers is 4.35, 4.29 on the road, and 4.65 at night. They have not faced each other, and whereas that does offer room for debate, in my experience with BTS, that’s a push. Cruz is 0-2 in pinch-hit attempts; that’s not good, but it does mean he is rarely used as a pinch-hitter. I have entered Cruz for tonight with utmost confidence.*

*someone would have to check, but I believe I am 4-4 on these Lock-of-a-Lifetime selections

Good day all. Congrats to those that survived last night and condolences to those that didn’t.
I’m going with Miggy tonight. Top2500 will be posted at about 830-9est. GL to all.

“Solid strategy for HR BTS via ponyforkeana.
Be careful of Wrigley Field – Plays as a small ball park when wind blows from S – SW. Plays as a large ball park when wind blows N – NE.
Check the web site that give daily weather and wind conditions at all ballparks. This is a great source of info for HR BTS”

That might not be as good a strategy as you think.

First of all, how many extra feet does a 10 MPH constant wind add to a normal HR ball arc?

Secondly, how many of a player’s 2010 and career HR totals fall within this distance from the fence?

I’m going to try my luck with Ryan Howard today to reach my high mark of 10 games for the second time this season. He was hitless yesterday, but he’s been hot lately so I have as much faith in him rebounding as Miguel Cabrera. I worry about Cabrera, though, because he’s losing the protection around him with Ordonez out and Boesch in a big slump. Good hitters hit, though.

Locked in with Konerko. I wanted to go with Herrera but I wasn’t sure if he was in the lineup. I couldn’t find anyone that that I felt could beat up Millwood. I would be so upset if Herrera is in the lineup and gets a hit while Konerko goes O-fer.

What is going on with Bautista this year? This is unreal. Why wasn’t he hitting them before?

1. Professor Pete – Rocks!
2. The commentary posted about Wrigley Field and it’s “quirks”comes from very long time Cub fan who has been to many games at Wrigley Field. Please take the information as solid advice/ book it and take it to the bank as true. The winds that blow at Wrigley Field make it a crazy place to play; you can not take a laboratory physics approach to what happens there. I’ve seen lazy fly balls get caught in the wind and carry onto Waveland Ave. for HR’s when wind blows out. I’ve seen crushed balls be flatted out by the wind and become routine flyouts outs.
3.Watching ChiSox v. Mariners – “Hyphen” Rowland-Smith is being manhandled by ChiSox. Rowland-Smith is the equilavent of the guy who bring s knife to a gun battle.

Thank you Ryan Howard for bringing me to 10. Good luck to everyone else tonight!

At least leader’s pick is making tonight somewhat interesting thus far: Cano is 0-2 & possibly just 3 ABs if Tomlin remains dominant.

LaV’s List
Tuesday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 170 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Ichiro Suzuki, 222, 8.88
Miguel Cabrera, 212, 8.48(4th)(GOOD)
Robinson Cano, 144, 5.76(1rst)
Delmon Young, 138, 5.52
Alex Rios, 98, 3.92(3rd)
Ryan Howard, 98, 3.92(GOOD)
Carlos Gonzalez, 69, 2.76(5th)(MLB.com’s Ian Kay)
Josh Hamilton, 61, 2.44(GOOD)
Paul Konerko, 59, 2.36
Derrek Lee, 50, 2
Jose Bautista, 48, 1.92(GOOD)
Kevin Youkilis, 47, 1.88
Joe Mauer, 45, 1.8(GOOD)
No Selection, 45, 1.8
Placido Polanco, 44, 1.76(GOOD)
Ryan Braun 44 1.76
Ian Kinsler 43 1.72(2nd)

Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset was a brutal 54.2%

Highest “No Selection”:Pg# 9 with a streak of 14 back to zero.

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
ChiSox07, 9, pg 39, R. Howard(GOOD)
PeterKevinPerkins, 8, pg 61, N. Cruz (picked 7 times in top2500)
Champion88, 8, pg 53, A. Jackson (picked 6 times in top2500)
00LIber, 6, pg 91, M. Cabrera (GOOD)
patnick98, 6, pg 100+, J. Buck (picked 20 in top2500)
_Em_, 18, reset by R. Cano
bmoccabee, 14, reset by J. Votto
forcook, 13, reset by R. Cano

GL to all

FYI – The outfield barrier at Wrigley Field is a solid brick wall from foul pole to foul pole. It is not a fence. PLEASE – This is a fact. NO COMMENTARY IS NEEDED ON THIS POST.

They reversed the call on Ichiro’s first inning cheap grounder. Now its ruled a error on Konerko. A lot of people won’t be happy with this.

Leader moves on, 3rd place drops, Ichiro 0-fer and losing by 11 runs — will manager sit him before next at bat?

Rios taken out so #3 zwreed is out. Rios should wear sunglasses at night.

As I said the last time he pitched and I will post again.
Watch the next time Gavin Floyd pitches ( Monday 8/2).
He is painting a masterpiece tonight v. M’s and has and ERA of about 1.10 over his last 10 starts. Don’t go against him.

“He is painting a masterpiece tonight v. M’s”

But you also have to remember pitching a dandy against SEA happens almost everyday now. With slumping Ichiro, they have nobody in their lineup who is a threat.

FYI – Buehrle starts for ChiSox on Wed. He has been doing well and the game is in Chicago where he dominates.

btsplayer – You are correct – M’s are awful and it was painful to watch the game. Just ended 11-0 ChiSox. Would the M’s trade Ichiro before the deadline or does he have a no-trade contract? Gavin Floyd has a 1.04 ERA in his last 10 starts – those are Bob Gibson kind of numbers.

“Gonzalez, in four starts this month, has given up 27 hits in 23 2/3 innings, and 22 hits in 17 innings over his last three starts. His ERA against right-handers is 4.35, 4.29 on the road, and 4.65 at night.”

I wasn’t touching this lefty with a lefty bat. He always pitched well to lefty bats. Another thing that screwed me TX picks are there are too many candidates who can hit. Sometimes one guy steals all the thunder batting in front of your pick. Cruz has Vlad & JHamil ahead of him.

Sorry. I thought Cruz was a lefty. I can’t believe it. All this I thought he was a lefty bat. I think I made that mistake because I made a mental note a long time before his injury that he kills lefty pitchers.

Well Cruz singled off reliever, but Kinsler (2nd place) still 0-fer and extras likely.

“Would the M’s trade Ichiro before the deadline or does he have a no-trade contract?”

I think he gotta super cushy contract where he dictates everything. He even gets to like fly in his family like twice a year for all paid super bonanza trip. But isn’t making like $17 mil/yr enough? Last week, there was an article about him being depressed about the team. You know nobody hitting on that is not helping our BTS champ. His slump is making it really tough for all of us this year. I guess to some extent JHamil is the new Ichiro for now.

How many times does this happen? Now, almost everyone except Kinsler has a hit. This happened to me so many times I recall. And it happened to me a couple of times w/ Mauer. He came in with best #s and it was a rout. Everyone including their #9 hitter is throwing a hit-pot parade.

Man. Tough picking again tomorrow. Its like this everyday now. And everyday there is some almost no hitter going. This is ridiculous. Bring back the juice & hormones. Served them @ local Jamba juice!

I think I’ll go with Joe Mauer tomorrow. Scott Podsednik lights it up during the day, but Minnesota’s Brian Duensing shuts lefties right back down and has been doing pretty well since he has begun starting for the Twins. I just wonder if the Twins have any hits left in the tank after the past two days. With Bannister on the mound, you’d think so, but he’s pretty good during the day. 3.05 ERA opposed to 7.47 at night.

ignaciometcalf is working the leader board. He had a 30-game streak earlier his year and is now back up to 20.

A blogger group member is the current leader in Survivor, with a 19-gamer. See how far he/she can take it.

@chisox.
Be careful about Mauer tommorow. He might not play. Day game after a night game. Saving grace might be that he DH’d tuesday. Several times this year Garderhire has sat him only to use him as a pinch hitter and he has come up empty. You have been warned.

@00liber: I understand and appreciate the warning. I guess I was looking at it as that the Twins need him in the lineup everyday, even as the DH, until Morneau comes back at least. Eh, maybe you’re right. Why take the risk?

Wednesday 7/28
Going again with White Hot – White Sox Alexi Ramirez to get a hit v. Vargas of M’s who has been doing well lately. Going with Ramirez as it is a ChiSox home game and M’s have entered the neighborhood of O’s and Pirates.
Also – take a look at the Cubs new one -two batting punch
Tyler Colvin and Super Rookie Starlin Castro if M’s Vargas scares you.
HR – Granderson
Survivor – ChiSox, Phils/Halladay, TB(Tigers are in a free fall due to injuries.)

FYI – The outfield barrier at Wrigley Field is a solid brick wall from foul pole to foul pole. It is not a fence. PLEASE – This is a fact. NO COMMENTARY IS NEEDED ON THIS POST.

@dragbunt104 I’ll throw in some not so welcome commentary… This is why everyone hates Cubs fan… Go piss in a bathtub with 20 other dudes in the worlds biggest gay bar while watching a team that hasn’t been good enough to win in over 100 years.

rampantredsfan: “… watching a team that hasn’t been good enough to win in over 100 years”
Give it some more time. Your Reds may be in the same boat (or worse) meanwhile the Cubs have won a couple WS in the next several decades. At least Cubs are willing to spend some money & since spending is a novel idea for them, they haven’t quite got the hang of it yet.
P.S. Why are you pissing in your bath water? That’s just wrong.

Anyone else unable to make a pick for today? None of the games or player info loads when I click on pick player. I am logged in because I see my current streak in the standings. I don’t want to lose this ******** 10 gamer I have going!

@rampantredsfan: Oh please. Why are you attacking a baseball fan through an internet blog after never posting on here before? This is for BTS related topics only. If you want to be biased and attack other fans for specifying a detail about their parks, then go to a bar because at least there you’ll have to say it to their faces. What a coward.

“The winds that blow at Wrigley Field make it a crazy place to play; you can not take a laboratory physics approach to what happens there.”

Why not?

You could hit 100 balls into a steady 20 MPH wind blowing in and 100 balls into a steady 20 MPH wind blowing out, take the average of both tests, and then look at the difference between the 2 averages.

You could then add that difference to a player’s 2009-2010 fly-ball counts to see how much it would bump up its respective HR totals to see how important those stats are.

“The winds that blow at Wrigley Field make it a crazy place to play; you can not take a laboratory physics approach to what happens there.”

Why not?

You could hit 100 balls into a steady 20 MPH wind blowing in and 100 balls into a steady 20 MPH wind blowing out, take the average of both tests, and then look at the difference between the 2 averages.

You could then add that difference to a player’s 2009-2010 fly-ball counts to see how much it would bump up its respective HR totals to see how important those stats are.

“But you also have to remember pitching a dandy against SEA happens almost everyday now. With slumping Ichiro, they have nobody in their lineup who is a threat.”

That still wouldn’t explain the 1.20 ERA over the other 9 starts though.

“Another thing that screwed me TX picks are there are too many candidates who can hit.”

This is a good thing. Don’t overthink it.

You have a better chance of getting 5 AB’s with so many good hitters.

“Sorry. I thought Cruz was a lefty. I can’t believe it. All this I thought he was a lefty bat.”

I did the same thing with Jason Kubel.

I always thought he was a righty until about 2 months ago.

And I always thought Mark Mulder was a lefty too for some reason.

“I think I’ll go with Joe Mauer tomorrow. ”

You used a catcher in a day game after a night game?

“Anyone else unable to make a pick for today? None of the games or player info loads when I click on pick player. I am logged in because I see my current streak in the standings. I don’t want to lose this ******** 10 gamer I have going!”

That happens occasionally, but if you close your browsers completely and reopen it, that usually fixes the problem.

Once or twice in the history of the contest, they cancelled all scoring for that day’s picks, due to server problems.

“You used a catcher in a day game after a night game?”

Yes, because Mauer DH’ed the night before and has shown no pity against the Royals this series. I also really doubted that Bannister would be able to hold him hitless during his terror lately. I did, however, make sure he was in the starting lineup today before picks locked.

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