Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, September 10-12

480x270_Hanley.jpg

It’s a sad day across Streak-land, as our fearless leader, “bretzky26″, saw his/her run come to an end at 37 games after Juan Pierre’s 0-for-4 effort vs. the Tigers yesterday.

It was a formidable run for “bretzky26″, who started to make us all believe that the elusive dream could indeed become a reality.

We enjoyed the ride, “bretzky26″. There’s always next year. 

Onto the weekend picks…

Oh, hello there …

Friday

? Billy Butler: .314 AVG (14-for-41) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle

? Manny Ramirez: .417 AVG (5-for-12) lifetime vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen

? Hanley Ramirez: .462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Nationals starter John Lannan

Saturday

? Ichiro Suzuki: .356 AVG (21-for-59) lifetime vs. Angels starter Ervin Santana

? Bobby Abreu: .333 AVG (11-for-33) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Felix Hernandez

? Aaron Hill: .571 AVG (4-for-7) lifetime vs. Rays starter Wade Davis

Sunday

? Orlando Cabrera: .538 AVG (7-for-13) lifetime vs. Pirates starter Brian Burres

? Erick Aybar: .357 AVG (5-for-14) lifetime vs. Mariners starter Jason Vargas

? Albert Pujols: .421 AVG (8-for-19) lifetime vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson

Feeling kinda spicy?

Friday

? Jose Reyes: .467 AVG (7-for-15) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Halladay

Saturday

? Ryan Theriot: .370 AVG (10-for-27) lifetime vs. Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez

Sunday

? Carlos Beltran: .400 AVG (8-for-20) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Oswalt

You’ll thank me later…

Friday

? Alex Rodriguez: .000 AVG (0-for-12) lifetime vs. Rangers starter C.J. Wilson

? B.J. Upton: .133 AVG (2-for-15) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Brett Cecil

Saturday

? Nelson Cruz: .167 AVG (2-for-12) lifetime vs. Yankees starter A.J. Burnett

? Placido Polanco: .125 AVG (1-for-8) lifetime vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey

Sunday

? Shin-Soo Choo: .190 AVG (4-for-21) lifetime vs. Twins starter Kevin Slowey

? Jose Bautista: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Rays starter Jeff Niemann

Leaderboard time!

With “bretzky26″ falling from grace, our new leader is “astoclubgoer”, who parlayed Troy Tulowitzki’s hot lumber into a 33-game streak.

Both “bhovekamp”
and “shinn_8″ pushed their streaks to 31 games apiece thanks to Paul Konerko (1-for-4) and Hunter Pence (1-for-3).

Top MLB streakers

? Neil Walker: 15 games

? Michael Brantley: 10 games

? Hunter Pence: 10 games

? Ichiro Suzuki: 10 games

98 Comments

Well, just one remaining chasing the $3M prize

Friday Sept 10
BTS – Starlin Castro v. Bush of Brewers – I like the chances here.
HR – For some reason: Fukudome of Cubs hits with power at Milwaukee so why not.
Survuvor – Reds, ChiSox, Rockies look good but I’m going with LAA

Survivor in alphabetical order:
ATL, AZ, CHC, CIN, CLE, CWS, DET, FLA, HOU, LAA, OAK, PHI, SF, TEX, TOR
My choice? CHC and S.Castro: 333 last 10 games, 333 vs pitcher this year, 317 season avg. Lots of 300’s
FYI: rotoworld reports Polanco playing with elbow fracture for rest of year. Surgery offseason.

hmmm, maybe CWS & P.Konerko instead. Konerko kills lefties at home and has 300s for most offensive numbers. Decisions, decisions & plenty of time

lavople – Survivor factoids……………..
From Chgo Radio: “Buerhle is 7-1 in 13 starts v. KC at home.” Also, ChiSox are 8-7 v. KC this season.
I still like LAA for survivor
AZ over Rockies – that is a bold choice. Game at Colorado and they are “hotter than the sun at noon time in the middle of the summer!”
I’m still skeptical about Zambrano but would take him in HR BTS today if I could.

Beat the Streak: Hanley Ramirez
Survivor: Tigers
Home run: Jose Batista

Possible scratches: J.Bruce(CIN), O.Cabrera(CIN), J.Hamilton(TEX), J.Posada(NYY), J.Upton(AZ), A.Ramirez(CHC), J.Thome(MIN), R.Theriot(LAD), J.Rollins(PHI), G.Sanchez(FLA 3-gm suspension)

Another Friday scratch: B.Posey(SF)
20 mins to game time, still time to change your pick if needed

@dragbunt. My survivor picks are based primarily off of starting lineup averages. So AZ, CWS could be upsets? I did go with CWS today afterall. CHC/MIL could be a hit fest!

Yet another Friday scratch: Kung-fu Panda(SF)
No Posey/Sandoval throws my SF win prediction out the window – toss up

I went with Logan Morrison as he has hit .417 off lefties this season and Lannan allows lefties to hit .317 off him.

I was going to go with Carlos Gonzalez, since he still seems hot even though he went 0 for 4 yesterday, but Saunders has limited lefties to just a .250 average this year and is probably a better pitcher than he has shown this year anyway.

The holds lefties down angle held down Carlos Gonzalez yesterday (Wood had held lefties to an insane .111 this year!) so did not want to fall into a similar trap today.

I went with Logan Morrison as he has hit .417 off lefties this season and Lannan allows lefties to hit .317 off him.

I was going to go with Carlos Gonzalez, since he still seems hot even though he went 0 for 4 yesterday, but Saunders has limited lefties to just a .250 average this year and is probably a better pitcher than he has shown this year anyway.

The holds lefties down angle held down Carlos Gonzalez yesterday (Wood had held lefties to an insane .111 this year!) so did not want to fall into a similar trap today.

And the prize for the biggest sore BTS loser goes to lavolpe. I hope Mr. Dragbunt mails him a rotten banana. He has been finished a long time ago but he just can’t help himself posting useless updates and checking all day/night because he is so bitter that his system is such a failure. Guess what? You know what they say about karma. What an annoying *****! I guess he will back here next year doing the loser countdown.

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 17 or greater, totalling 112 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 36 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 112
Hanley Ramirez, 14, 12.50% (4th)
Joe Mauer, 13, 11.61% (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th)
Miguel Cabrera, 13, 11.61% (4th)
Brandon Phillips, 9, 8.04% (43.76% of picks are in the top 4)
Joey Votto, 4, 3.57% (2nd)
Michael Young, 4, 3.57%
Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 3.57%
Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.57%
Omar Infante, 3, 2.68%
Albert Pujols, 3, 2.68%
Carlos Gonzalez, 3, 2.68%
Ryan Zimmerman, 3, 2.68%
Josh Hamilton, 3, 2.68%
Prince Fielder, 2, 1.79% (4th)
Melvin Mora, 2, 1.79%
Johnny Damon, 2, 1.79%
Vernon Wells, 2, 1.79%
Evan Longoria, 2, 1.79%
Hunter Pence, 2, 1.79%
No Selection, 2, 1.79% (19-game hit streak and 17-game hit streak)
Logan Morrison, 2, 1.79%
Scott Rolen, 1, 0.89%
Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.89%
Paul Konerko, 1, 0.89%
Jose Bautista, 1, 0.89%
Mark Teixeira, 1, 0.89%
Martin Prado, 1, 0.89%
Kosuke Fukudome, 1, 0.89%
Placido Polanco, 1, 0.89%
Matt Holliday, 1, 0.89%
Ryan Braun, 1, 0.89%
Aaron Hill, 1, 0.89%
Carlos Lee, 1, 0.89%
Jhonny Peralta, 1, 0.89%
Ryan Howard, 1, 0.89%
Billy Butler, 1, 0.89%
Jonny Gomes, 1, 0.89%
Highest No Selection on page 3 with streak of 19, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

THE $3M PRIZE IS NOW OUT OF REACH FOR ANY REMAINING PLAYERS
astoclubgoer got clubbed to death by Cleveland, limiting Twins to just 3 hits & Mauer just 3 ABs, no hits.
For the truly optimistic I guess one can say if the season gets extended 2 to 5 days, then maybe some others may still have a chance. A snowball’s chance in you know where.

I think 2 days out is realistic, which is why I have included those players in the remaining lists.

But only 2 players were at 31, entering today, and 1 of them also had Mauer.

The other had Votto, who is 0 for 3 right now with just 1 AB left, unless the Pirates tie.

Mauer’s 0 for 3 also eliminates another 13 players, bringing us down to double digits in terms of remaining players, with just 99.

FYI: Votto has 1 more guaranteed AB unless pulled

Hmm, Votto strikes out for likely his last AB. The glass is getting less than half full I would say.

Pirates just quickly closed the gap to 3-2 with still nobody out.

Survivor- Why did I take the Tigers? My other 2 choices (Reds and Phillies) are winning and had to take a team with Phil Choke on their roster. Why can I never pick the right team? I’m getting close to being eliminated from a 12+ streak. If my longest streak is 11 or fewer it is a failure survivor season. One day I pick against them and I lose, now I pick them and lose again.

Beat the Streak: Hanley Ramirez (Successful)
Home run: Jose Batista (Successful) – 1st 2 Home run pick of the year for me.

Pirates just tied it up at 3.

Interesting how Neil Walker’s single in the 9th Inning, which upped his own streak to 16 games, is partially what is keeping our last $3M hopeful alive right now!

I have to say that even though my streak is meaningless right now, I am pretty pumped that Logan Morrison came through in the 9th Inning on his 5th and final AB against the bullpen.

I can only imagine how lopsided a feeling it must be if you had a 30 or 40 game hit streak riding on it!

I have to say that even though my streak is meaningless right now, I am pretty pumped that Logan Morrison came through in the 9th Inning on his 5th and final AB against the bullpen.

I can only imagine how lopsided a feeling it must be if you had a 30 or 40 game hit streak riding on it!

Starlin Castro singles up the middle in the 7th. He looks less than 100% via a collision at 1B the other day vs. Astros.
I would be careful picking him on Saturday. TV announcers were talking about his bruised hip.
Tip of the Cub cap to Brewers current reliever Kintzler who was pitching in the Independent League 2 seasons ago. What an accomplishment to make it to the “SHOW” from that level of ball.

Joey Votto: Hit by a pitch

@yanksgiantsdevils: Bad luck. DET had many, many chances to win that game offensively and did not; including a leadoff triple that did not score.
@champion_88. The last $3M contender already fell. The only way another can contend is if the season gets extended 2 or more days because bhovekamp, current leader, does not have streak big enough to get to 57. All are mathematically eliminated at this point. Hoping for a Santa isn’t going to change the math.
Blog ya’ll sometime in October. I’ll pop in around then to see who, if anyone, tied/beat Dick & Geoff. Been a good day so far & enjoyed past two days quite considerably — exciting.
Good luck to those still in the $10K chase. Give Dick & Geoff a reason to watch you & the leaderboard, night after night.

@lavolpe
Bad luck. DET had many, many chances to win that game offensively and did not; including a leadoff triple that did not score. 2 strikeouts and a pop out sure gave the Orioles confidence and they scored 3 runs in the next two innings and shut the Tigers down. My tragic # is 12 to not get a survivor streak of 12 this season. If I were you I’d avoid my survivor picks the rest of the season. I’m going with the Reds tomorrow.

Joey Votto due up 2nd in the bottom 12th.

2 more days is just 1 rainout and 1 tiebreaker.

How is that so unrealistic?

Especially when around this time, MLB conducts 15 tiebreaker coin tosses?

Joey Votto is hit by a pitch AGAIN!

2 more days is just 1 rainout and 1 tiebreaker.

How is that so unrealistic?

Especially when around this time, MLB conducts 15 tiebreaker coin tosses?

And they hit him AGAIN!

If I had Votto right now, I would be so freaking annoyed.

It would be better for him to have made an out there, because he would have had a chance for it to fall in and it would be less likely the Reds win the game right here.

“2 more days is just 1 rainout and 1 tiebreaker.
Moot point now, I think we can all agree. Now you’d need 3 extra days of baseball, with Votto going 0-fer & game over.

Gonzalez is 0 for 4 in the Rockies game.

If he goes 0 for 5, he is a tempting pick on the Rockies tomorrow.

Tulo still hot, so he should be an easy setup for Sunday.

Not sure who the Diamondbacks could start that would scare you away.

“Blog ya’ll sometime in October. I’ll pop in around then to see who, if anyone, tied/beat Dick & Geoff. Been a good day so far & enjoyed past two days quite considerably — exciting.
Good luck to those still in the $10K chase. Give Dick & Geoff a reason to watch you & the leaderboard, night after night.”

If you enjoyed yourself so much, why not stick around for the rest of the $10K contenders?

And does this mean you will not be posting the Top 2500 anymore for the regular season?

Are you going to play Postseason Beat the Streak?

“Blog ya’ll sometime in October. I’ll pop in around then to see who, if anyone, tied/beat Dick & Geoff. Been a good day so far & enjoyed past two days quite considerably — exciting.
Good luck to those still in the $10K chase. Give Dick & Geoff a reason to watch you & the leaderboard, night after night.”

If you enjoyed yourself so much, why not stick around for the rest of the $10K contenders?

And does this mean you will not be posting the Top 2500 anymore for the regular season?

Are you going to play Postseason Beat the Streak?

Note to mods: If posts come through twice, keep the one with the spaces, since that is how I wanted the posts.

Not all lumped together!

“”2 more days is just 1 rainout and 1 tiebreaker.
Moot point now, I think we can all agree. Now you’d need 3 extra days of baseball, with Votto going 0-fer & game over.”

Yeah.

I suppose you can root for a hurricane to hit the east coast somewhere and cancel a whole series worth of games for a contender.

Igor is the next in the series of storms and should be somewhere on the east coast in about 2 weeks, but I think the initial thought is somewhere between Georgia and Virginia and there are no teams there (Atlanta is WAY inland.)

Hunter Pence also went 0 for 5.

I know someone said that they thought he was swinging well.

Do you still think he is now?

Did he just get unlucky? Or is he done with his hot streak?

I would also like to hear your reasoning for Carlos Gonzalez.

I was watching the game yesterday and it seemed like he was just unlucky against a tough pitcher, but tonight was just Joe Saunders and the Rockies collected 15 hits without him.

champ88: “If you enjoyed yourself so much, why not stick around for the rest of the $10K contenders?”
Not my cup of tea. Someone will always win it & good luck to him/her. Not really of interest to me to see who. Besides, I’d like to work on my Survivor Calculator. Though it is still rough, it is helping me, indirectly, focus on picks for BTS & that could be a big plus for next year. Actually it is pretty good right now, but does need some tweaking. Done well today too, picking 9 of 12 correctly. Still 3 remaining all looking like extra innings. Lots of close games today
champ88: “And does this mean you will not be posting the Top 2500 anymore for the regular season?”
Correct. Probably won’t blog much from here on out either.
champ88: “Are you going to play Postseason Beat the Streak?”
Haven’t heard of it before, I’ll have to check the fantasy page last week of season.

If interested, Survivor picks for Saturday
ATL, BAL, CIN, CHC, CLE, COL, CWS, FLA, LAA, LAD, OAK, PHI, NYY, SD, TOR

RESULTS:

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 112
***Hanley Ramirez, 14, 12.50% (4th)
XXXJoe Mauer, 13, 11.61% (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th)
***Miguel Cabrera, 13, 11.61% (4th)
***Brandon Phillips, 9, 8.04% (43.76% of picks are in the top 4)
XXXJoey Votto, 4, 3.57% (2nd)
***Michael Young, 4, 3.57%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 3.57%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.57%
***Omar Infante, 3, 2.68%
XXXAlbert Pujols, 3, 2.68%
XXXCarlos Gonzalez, 3, 2.68%
***Ryan Zimmerman, 3, 2.68%
Josh Hamilton, 3, 2.68%
***Prince Fielder, 2, 1.79% (4th)
***Melvin Mora, 2, 1.79%
***Johnny Damon, 2, 1.79%
***Vernon Wells, 2, 1.79%
***Evan Longoria, 2, 1.79%
***Hunter Pence, 2, 1.79%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 1.79% (19-game hit streak and 17-game hit streak)
***Logan Morrison, 2, 1.79%
***Scott Rolen, 1, 0.89%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.89%
***Paul Konerko, 1, 0.89%
***Jose Bautista, 1, 0.89%
Mark Teixeira, 1, 0.89%
***Martin Prado, 1, 0.89%
XXXKosuke Fukudome, 1, 0.89%
XXXPlacido Polanco, 1, 0.89%
***Matt Holliday, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 0.89%
XXXAaron Hill, 1, 0.89%
***Carlos Lee, 1, 0.89%
***Jhonny Peralta, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 0.89%
XXXBilly Butler, 1, 0.89%
***Jonny Gomes, 1, 0.89%

*** = player successful
XXX = player failed
— = player did not play

Some thoughts on the results:

Why the heck would ANYONE have picked Aaron Hill today for BTS?

He is hitting .213 for the season, hits low in the lineup at home, against a great Rays team?

The Rangers game is still going in the 13th Inning, so there are also 2 unresolved hitters there: Mark Teixeira and Josh Hamilton.

I will be up as long as it takes to finish the 2 remaining games, so I will update the results then.

FINAL RESULTS:

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 112
***Hanley Ramirez, 14, 12.50% (4th)
XXXJoe Mauer, 13, 11.61% (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th)
***Miguel Cabrera, 13, 11.61% (4th)
***Brandon Phillips, 9, 8.04% (43.76% of picks are in the top 4)
XXXJoey Votto, 4, 3.57% (2nd)
***Michael Young, 4, 3.57%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 3.57%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.57%
***Omar Infante, 3, 2.68%
XXXAlbert Pujols, 3, 2.68%
XXXCarlos Gonzalez, 3, 2.68%
***Ryan Zimmerman, 3, 2.68%
—Josh Hamilton, 3, 2.68%
***Prince Fielder, 2, 1.79% (4th)
***Melvin Mora, 2, 1.79%
***Johnny Damon, 2, 1.79%
***Vernon Wells, 2, 1.79%
***Evan Longoria, 2, 1.79%
***Hunter Pence, 2, 1.79%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 1.79% (19-game hit streak and 17-game hit streak)
***Logan Morrison, 2, 1.79%
***Scott Rolen, 1, 0.89%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.89%
***Paul Konerko, 1, 0.89%
***Jose Bautista, 1, 0.89%
XXXMark Teixeira, 1, 0.89%
***Martin Prado, 1, 0.89%
XXXKosuke Fukudome, 1, 0.89%
XXXPlacido Polanco, 1, 0.89%
***Matt Holliday, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 0.89%
XXXAaron Hill, 1, 0.89%
***Carlos Lee, 1, 0.89%
***Jhonny Peralta, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 0.89%
XXXBilly Butler, 1, 0.89%
***Jonny Gomes, 1, 0.89%

*** = player successful
XXX = player failed
— = player did not play

FINAL RESULTS:

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 112
***Hanley Ramirez, 14, 12.50% (4th)
XXXJoe Mauer, 13, 11.61% (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th)
***Miguel Cabrera, 13, 11.61% (4th)
***Brandon Phillips, 9, 8.04% (43.76% of picks are in the top 4)
XXXJoey Votto, 4, 3.57% (2nd)
***Michael Young, 4, 3.57%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 3.57%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.57%
***Omar Infante, 3, 2.68%
XXXAlbert Pujols, 3, 2.68%
XXXCarlos Gonzalez, 3, 2.68%
***Ryan Zimmerman, 3, 2.68%
Josh Hamilton, 3, 2.68%
***Prince Fielder, 2, 1.79% (4th)
***Melvin Mora, 2, 1.79%
***Johnny Damon, 2, 1.79%
***Vernon Wells, 2, 1.79%
***Evan Longoria, 2, 1.79%
***Hunter Pence, 2, 1.79%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 1.79% (19-game hit streak and 17-game hit streak)
***Logan Morrison, 2, 1.79%
***Scott Rolen, 1, 0.89%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.89%
***Paul Konerko, 1, 0.89%
***Jose Bautista, 1, 0.89%
Mark Teixeira, 1, 0.89%
***Martin Prado, 1, 0.89%
XXXKosuke Fukudome, 1, 0.89%
XXXPlacido Polanco, 1, 0.89%
***Matt Holliday, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 0.89%
XXXAaron Hill, 1, 0.89%
***Carlos Lee, 1, 0.89%
***Jhonny Peralta, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 0.89%
XXXBilly Butler, 1, 0.89%
***Jonny Gomes, 1, 0.89%

*** = player successful
XXX = player failed
— = player did not play

FINAL RESULTS:

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 112
***Hanley Ramirez, 14, 12.50% (4th)
XXXJoe Mauer, 13, 11.61% (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 4th)
***Miguel Cabrera, 13, 11.61% (4th)
***Brandon Phillips, 9, 8.04% (43.76% of picks are in the top 4)
XXXJoey Votto, 4, 3.57% (2nd)
***Michael Young, 4, 3.57%
***Troy Tulowitzki, 4, 3.57%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 4, 3.57%
***Omar Infante, 3, 2.68%
XXXAlbert Pujols, 3, 2.68%
XXXCarlos Gonzalez, 3, 2.68%
***Ryan Zimmerman, 3, 2.68%
—Josh Hamilton, 3, 2.68%
***Prince Fielder, 2, 1.79% (4th)
***Melvin Mora, 2, 1.79%
***Johnny Damon, 2, 1.79%
***Vernon Wells, 2, 1.79%
***Evan Longoria, 2, 1.79%
***Hunter Pence, 2, 1.79%
XXXNo Selection, 2, 1.79% (19-game hit streak and 17-game hit streak)
***Logan Morrison, 2, 1.79%
***Scott Rolen, 1, 0.89%
***Adrian Beltre, 1, 0.89%
***Paul Konerko, 1, 0.89%
***Jose Bautista, 1, 0.89%
XXXMark Teixeira, 1, 0.89%
***Martin Prado, 1, 0.89%
XXXKosuke Fukudome, 1, 0.89%
XXXPlacido Polanco, 1, 0.89%
***Matt Holliday, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Braun, 1, 0.89%
XXXAaron Hill, 1, 0.89%
***Carlos Lee, 1, 0.89%
***Jhonny Peralta, 1, 0.89%
***Ryan Howard, 1, 0.89%
XXXBilly Butler, 1, 0.89%
***Jonny Gomes, 1, 0.89%

*** = player successful
XXX = player failed
— = player did not play

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Sorry for the 3 consecutive posts of the FINAL RESULTS.

The first time I forgot to configure the spacing correctly and the second time I forgot to add in the last 2 results.

So at the end of the day, we saw 30 more players eliminated out of the 112 that came into today still in contention.

So 82 players remain.

The 3 remaining $3M players were all eliminated, so the contest now is just about the $10,000 consolation prize.

Some might find these 0 for X’s from some of the longer games useful:

Joey Votto: 0 for 4, 2 hit by pitches, back-to-back 0 for games, after perfect 3 for 3, 1 walk game

Jeff Keppinger: 0 for 3, 2 walks

Hunter Pence: 0 for 5

Chris Johnson: 0 for 4, 1 walk

Elvis Andrus: 0 for 6

Mark Teixeira: 0 for 5, 2 walks

Derek Jeter: 1 for 7, 1 soft infield single

Ichiro Suzuki: 1 for 6, 1 soft infield single

Alberto Callaspo: 1 for 7, 1 soft fly-ball double

Torii Hunter: 0 for 6

Still trying to come up with a good algorithm to predict winners. Here are lastest 2 algos for Saturday’s games. Algo#1 did 33 wins & 18 losses over past 4 days & predicting several upsets. Algo#2 is first use.
The order given is in relation to algo’s probability of winning
Algo 1: CIN, FLA, COL, CLE, SD, PHI*, OAK*, CWS*, TOR, CHC, NYY, LAA*, LAD, ATL, BAL*
Algo 2: CIN, FLA, COL, CLE, KC*, NYY, BOS*, SD, NYM*, TOR, CHC, LAD, ATL, DET*, SEA*
*=Team changes between algorithms
FYI: If anyone else wants to experiment. The algos basically take the starting lineup’s season & “vs pitcher” averages and multiplies it by the opposing pitcher’s OPP average. I am using some weighting functions to handle 0 ABs, 0 Avg, and extremely high Avgs as those can really cause lopsided calculations. The team’s win/loss percentage is also applied to the formula, but weighted very low. Game lock times do affect the accuracy because the algos rely on starting lineup, not entire team. I have to guess the lineups well in advance for many games. In BTS, there’s an 80% success rate average game to game. I don’t have any clue what the rate is in Survivor. The algos are about 65% now & goal is to get 70-75% but adjust probability to 90% or better for 1 to 2 teams per day (only need 1 pick in Survivor).

Saturdy Sept. 11
BTS – Tulo in a “night game”
HR – See above
Survivor – Rockies
Hey Dave: Will there be a post season contest this year?

Beat the Streak-Derek Jeter- I believe he’ll have a multi hit game again someday….. will it be today?
Home run: Prince Fielder
Survivor: Reds

@dragbunt. Agreed. BTW: Tulo 3-5 this year vs Lopez

Maybe 2 other under-the-radar BTS picks to move one up
FLA Bonifacio (my pick) & CLE Brantley, both are hot now

Oh, I may give a blog entry or two: Survivor picks & under-the-radar picks, maybe not much else. Not even leaderboard watching now & didn’t know who leader picked until I saw your Top2500. As for the Calculator, I only need to see end of day scores to judge its success/failure so scoreboard watching isn’t a priority either. Day after, I can plug in actual starting lineup to better judge & see where I need to tweak if possible. Some games will be just an unfortunate pick, like TOR today where pitcher was hammered early — no predicting those.
I will follow my BTS pick & Survivor pick games and blog here/there during those games, like now.

What’s up. I know I haven’t been around but didn’t feel like posting for a few days. I can’t figure out HR BTS at all. I’m at 23 straight days without a Hr in HR BTS and I changed my picks a couple of times too but game is way too hard to predict.
BTS-David Murphy, he is hitting over .400 in the month of September so far and AJ is pitching tonight. I know he pitched well in his first game in September but I still don’t trust him to pitch like that all the time.
HR BTS-Nick Swisher, playing injured and Hunter has given up a lot of homers at home so why not. 23 straight without a HR isn’t going to make a difference.
Survivor-Rockies, Ubaldo is pitching and Rockies have a lot to play for and they on one of their famous September runs again. I think they are making the playoffs as Padres have lost their big lead they once had.
Good luck to all today.

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 18 or greater, totalling 79 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 28 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 79
Ichiro Suzuki, 14, 17.72% (1st)
Carlos Gonzalez, 12, 15.19%
Hanley Ramirez, 11, 13.92% (2nd, 5th) (46.83% of picks are in the top 3)
Joey Votto, 7, 8.86% (3rd)
Troy Tulowitzki, 5, 6.33% (62.02% of picks are in the top 5)
Omar Infante, 3, 3.80%
Scott Rolen, 3, 3.80%
Brandon Phillips, 2, 2.53%
Michael Young, 2, 2.53%
Miguel Cabrera, 2, 2.53%
Alex Rios, 1, 1.27% (4th)
Dan Uggla, 1, 1.27%
Robinson Cano, 1, 1.27%
Marlon Byrd, 1, 1.27%
David Murphy, 1, 1.27%
Jose Bautista, 1, 1.27%
Josh Hamilton, 1, 1.27%
Hunter Pence, 1, 1.27%
Joe Mauer, 1, 1.27%
Will Rhymes, 1, 1.27%
Carl Crawford, 1, 1.27%
Jose Reyes, 1, 1.27%
Juan Pierre, 1, 1.27%
Martin Prado, 1, 1.27%
Albert Pujols, 1, 1.27%
Paul Konerko, 1, 1.27%
Emilio Bonifacio, 1, 1.27%
Ryan Howard, 1, 1.27%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 17, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

“champ88: “And does this mean you will not be posting the Top 2500 anymore for the regular season?”
Correct. Probably won’t blog much from here on out either.”

Why not?

You can help work on your Survivor Calculator here?

We do not need to lose ANOTHER blogger!

11 more move on with Hanley’s single in the 6th.

1 more moves on with Emilio Bonifacio’s 2 hits.

1 more moves on with Carl Crawford’s triple.

The 1 person with Dan Uggla is in trouble, as he will not bat again most likely, unless the Nationals force extra innings.

“I have to guess the lineups well in advance for many games. In BTS, there’s an 80% success rate average game to game. I don’t have any clue what the rate is in Survivor. The algos are about 65% now & goal is to get 70-75% but adjust probability to 90% or better for 1 to 2 teams per day (only need 1 pick in Survivor).”

How on earth do you manage to guess lineups for all 30 teams every day?

No wonder you have no time for BTS anymore!

There were years where I did Survivor exclusively and I used to keep detailed statistics over how I did from day to day, within each month, and over the entire season.

The best winning percentage I ever had over a 10-week period was ~85%.

That was during the environment of the 29-game winner last year and upon further inspection, I found that I was only 2 picks away from beating him for the championship.

For the entire season, the most I have had was around 105 wins.

The formula I used tended to be very useful because it was either really great or really terrible.

Like June last year was absolutely horrendous.

Over a 2 week span, I lost 11-12 games.

But I was very excited then because I knew if I just kept at it, I would eventually explode and sure enough, that is what happened.

continued from above: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

So basically, I decided to use 2010 as an experiment year and try my hand at the much bigger jackpot of $3 million, as opposed to just $10,000 with Survivor and am pretty pleased with the transition.

My highest on the year has only been 12 games, but I have chained together a lot more consistency than I had in the first half of the year.

I have had a lot of 6 and 7-game hit streaks, snapped, and then go on another 7-game hit streak.

If I can just eliminate a few hitless days, I should be able to get into the 20s next year for sure!

@champ88: “How on earth do you manage to guess lineups for all 30 teams every day?”
Not too difficult, just time consuming at times
1) Starting lineups don’t normally change that much
2) Use rotoworld to see who may sitting & who’s replacing him
3) Look at avg vs pitcher; high avg generally indicates he’ll play
4) Catchers? Tough for some teams, easier for others
5) Some mgrs (LaRussa/Pinella) change lineups day-day. Tough
6) Platoon players? Lean towards lefty-right matchups & avg vs pitcher
7) Keep informed of nagging injuries (wrist, knee, shoulder, etc)
I’m hoping I can use this Calculator to focus my picks on just 1 or 2 teams. My theory, so far holding true, is that if I pick good/hot player on winning team, that player is part of the reason. So far, even if team looses, holding true, as long as team can get 5+ hits. I’m aiming at better than 80% success rate for BTS next year.

^^ meant to say: “focus my picks on just 1 or 2 teams each day”

And to continue my theory from above…. Picking from any predicted winning team won’t necessarily work. Don’t want to pick from a team that wins 1-0 with 2 just 2 hits. That’s why it’s important that my Calculator get good at creating probability scores so I can focus on a higher offensive day.

Though at 1st glance sounds like theory states to pick team vs bad pitcher. But that’s not true. A bad pitcher is not bad against all lineups/teams. The Calculator has already picked several upsets where opposing team got few hits. Picking CLE ov MIN yesterday is good example & Mauer only got 3 plate appearances, batting 3rd.

And picking against bad team does not guarantee high offense even if the team wins

^^ So to sum up. How often do you see a winning team get 4+ runs, 6+ hits, win and the #1 and/or #2 or the hotest player on that team went 0-fer? Not often at all. And conversely, the best/hottest player probably gets a hit 90-95% of the time in those cases. And that, my friend, is what I’m trying to tap into.

Survior Theorists:
There are 180 game days this season. A winning percentage of .600 would be 108 games won. Would you consider this a good winning percentage for a player?
I understand that consecutive games won rules the world.
A .600 winning percentage would tell you, I think, that your selection process is on the right track. A winning percentage of .800 would be incredible.
29 in a row is an amazing feate.

Starlin Castro report:
The Kid is not near 100%. Grounded into a double-play in the first inning tonight. Could not get down the line like he should. Limped a bit when he was returning to the dugout.
Stay away from him for awhile. He should not be in the line up. Cubs are going nowhere and risking injury to the brighest star on their 25 man roster is absolutely wrong.
What is Mike Quade thinking!

@champ88. Theory in action today: Early games & best/hottest player results, in order of Calculator’s probability score; win/4 runs/6 hits minimum criteria:
FLA: 4 runs, 8 hits, wins. Hanley/Bonafacio get hits
NYM: 4 runs, 11 hits, wins. Wright/Davis get hits
**TB: 13 runs, 10 hits, wins: Longoria/Crawford get hits
ATL: 4 runs, 9 hits, tbd: Prado/Heyward get hits
**STL: 4 runs, 7 hits, tbd: Pujols/Holliday get hits
I know there are a couple of 0-fers for best/hottest when team gets 10+ hits & wins, but those are rare during entire season
(**) Calculator failed to pick that team. But theory holds true
Note: ATL/STL game not final, 12th inning
Hottest hitter: MLB’s Who’s Hot Past 7 Days
Side note: Infante 6 PA today, maybe 1 more

Anyone know why Carlos Gonzalez is not in the starting lineup tonight?

A lot of big streaks are on the line with him, with a few on the margins of contention.

Survivor Calculator algo#2 doing well: 4 for 5 in games final. Not losing in any later games, yet. Still very early.

@champ88: Per rotoworld, “Gonzalez is simply getting a breather, according to the Denver Post’s Troy Renck”

Does that mean that he has the whole day off or just isn’t starting?

@champ88: Not starting, pinch hit possible if game is close & COL losing. Odds of that, we’ll see.

Since my streak is meaningless, I would rather he not come in the game at all.

I only can gain 1 game, but lose 3.

But if I had an 18-game hit streak right now, I would have to root for the pinch-hit, since a rest drops you from contention now anyway.

Beat the Streak: Derek Jeter- I was deciding between Jose Reyes, Ichiro Suzuki and Jeter. Why would I take the one who HAS NOT had a multi hit game since August 21st? And BTW the other two got hits, home runs to be exact! Now I’m praying for Jeter to STAY OUT of this game, otherwise I’ll be automatically back to zero. I’m not picking Jeter again this season, this is the worst I’ve seen him look in his career EVER!
Survivor: Reds – Flirted with disaster when the Pirates scored 4 in the 8th, but the Reds rallied with 1 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th to get me out of the survivor basement.
Home run: Prince Fielder – The Brewers did not even get a run in the game losing 1-0 to the Cubs. Back to 0 again.

@yanksgiantsdevils33: Well, they pinched hit for Pena, so Jeter will most likely take his spot on the field. If that happens, he could bat in the 9th.

Gonzalez in the game now for defense, but the Diamondbacks have runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

If they tie and force extra innings, he might bat in the 10th, but probably not until the 11th.

Beat the Streak: Derek Jeter- I was deciding between Jose Reyes, Ichiro Suzuki and Jeter. Why would I take the one who HAS NOT had a multi hit game since August 21st? And BTW the other two got hits, home runs to be exact! Now I’m praying for Jeter to STAY OUT of this game, otherwise I’ll be automatically back to zero. I’m not picking Jeter again this season, this is the worst I’ve seen him look in his career EVER!
Survivor: Reds – Flirted with disaster when the Pirates scored 4 in the 8th, but the Reds rallied with 1 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th to get me out of the survivor basement.
Home run: Prince Fielder – The Brewers did not even get a run in the game losing 1-0 to the Cubs. Back to 0 again.

@yanksgiantsdevils33: Hmmm, brought in Nunez instead of Jeter, they really want to give him a day off.

Beat the Streak: Ryan Zimmerman
Home run: Adam Dunn
Survivor: Reds or Rockies

Today’s current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 18 or greater, totalling 74 players. Anyone shorter streak is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes. 26 different players picked.

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 74
Miguel Cabrera, 14, 18.92% (1st)
Ryan Zimmerman, 10, 13.51% (1st, 4th)
Martin Prado, 6, 8.11%
Adrian Beltre, 5, 6.76% (47.30% of picks are in the top 4)
Paul Konerko, 4, 5.41%
Carlos Gonzalez, 4, 5.41%
Ichiro Suzuki, 3, 4.05%
Ryan Braun, 3, 4.05%
Orlando Cabrera, 2, 2.70% (1st)
Ian Kinsler, 2, 2.70% (5th)
Albert Pujols, 2, 2.70%
Corey Hart, 2, 2.70%
Brandon Phillips, 2, 2.70%
Austin Jackson, 2, 2.70%
Jason Heyward, 2, 2.70%
Prince Fielder, 1, 1.35%
Todd Helton, 1, 1.35%
Joe Mauer, 1, 1.35%
Joey Votto, 1, 1.35%
Omar Infante, 1, 1.35%
Robinson Cano, 1, 1.35%
Buster Posey, 1, 1.35%
Hanley Ramirez, 1, 1.35%
Torii Hunter, 1, 1.35%
David Wright, 1, 1.35%
Matt Wieters, 1, 1.35%
No Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 16, now eliminated

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
Everyone eliminated

By the way, that 18-game cutoff is NOT an error.

I decided to drop the threshold to 18 games now, to allow 1 full series of games to be made up at the end of the season, should 1 of the hurricanes impact the east coast and cancel an entire series.

Also, a few players yesterday would have fallen off the standings without actually going 0 for, so it was a big enough deal for me to make the change now.

Plus the next group almost cleanly finishes the 3rd page of the standings.

****** David Hernandez.

That guy should be freaking demoted right now for that meatball he grooved to Miguel Cabrera.

They nearly held him hitless and with the bases loaded and no outs in the 8th, he thinks that the best pitch to throw is a 94 MPH fastbal right down the middle at the belt?

Freaking moron.

wth Reds. 2 strikes 2 outs and give up a 3 run McCutchen double.
I’m suck of this ####. This Survivor game has the worse luck, losing to bad teams on the final pitch but bs like leadoff walks are the cause. Then again the Reds could only get 4 hits and 1 run off another mediocre at best pitcher and screw it for your own pitcher. Screw survivor this season sucks! My streak was tiny like always but this is one of the worst losses imaginable.
Now I wonder how anyone reached 29 in survivor, my longest streak is 9 and even that needed a proper stretch of superior pitching and hitting winning. However this cr.ap being 4 hit by awful pitchers is ABSOLUTE BULL! My longest survivor streak this season was 9 so my 12 or more goal has failed! Absolute GARBAGE!
Beat the Streak Ryan Zimmerman (success)

Survivor is much tougher in September and I have rarely seen late surges that challenge the leader, like you see in Beat the Streak.

Normally you would be in a great position as doing absolutely terrible usually turns into absolutely great.

Unfortunately, there is not enough of the season left for that to matter.

But you are in prime position for Postseason Survivor though!

Look who just lurked onto the second page but just too late to take the consolation prize. **mkaratzia** moved to 21 today with his Beltre pick. He was a pretty good picker but the game was lot easier that year. Plus, he had the benefit of doubleheader freebie rule so he got at least 2 or 3 free moves.

Even the last year’s last man standing **enronshorttrader** was up to 20 at least the last week of August. I think he poofed soon after that as I didn’t see his name again.

Karatzia can still tie the leader with just 1 tiebreaker game, so do not count him out.

Monday Sept 12
So under the radar pick it is under water:
BTS – Cubs Jeff Baker plays v. lefites only – So he should be leading off v. Garcia of Cards who is tough – But Baker is hitting about .360 v. lefties – With a one game streak going why not!
HR – Puljos could homer multiple times v. Samarijida of Cubs
Survivor: At zero again – May try this strategy: With the Pirates on the road – take whoever the home team is!

FINAL RESULTS:

Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 74
***Miguel Cabrera, 14, 18.92% (1st)
***Ryan Zimmerman, 10, 13.51% (1st, 4th)
Martin Prado, 6, 8.11%
***Adrian Beltre, 5, 6.76% (47.30% of picks are in the top 4)
***Paul Konerko, 4, 5.41%
***Carlos Gonzalez, 4, 5.41%
***Ichiro Suzuki, 3, 4.05%
***Ryan Braun, 3, 4.05%
—Orlando Cabrera, 2, 2.70% (1st)
XXXIan Kinsler, 2, 2.70% (5th)
Albert Pujols, 2, 2.70%
***Corey Hart, 2, 2.70%
XXXBrandon Phillips, 2, 2.70%
—Austin Jackson, 2, 2.70%
Jason Heyward, 2, 2.70%
XXXPrince Fielder, 1, 1.35%
XXXTodd Helton, 1, 1.35% (0 for 1, 3 walks)
***Joe Mauer, 1, 1.35%
***Joey Votto, 1, 1.35%
Omar Infante, 1, 1.35%
XXXRobinson Cano, 1, 1.35%
***Buster Posey, 1, 1.35%
***Hanley Ramirez, 1, 1.35%
XXXTorii Hunter, 1, 1.35%
XXXDavid Wright, 1, 1.35%
—Matt Wieters, 1, 1.35%
XXXNo Selection, 0, 0.00%
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 16, now eliminated

*** = Player success
XXX = Player failed
— = Player did not play
blank = Player plays tonight

To summarize what we are looking at for the evening game:

Martin Prado, 6, 8.11%
Albert Pujols, 2, 2.70%
Jason Heyward, 2, 2.70%
Omar Infante, 1, 1.35%

With Infante’s infield hit now, all 11 of the remaining players move on to tomorrow.

@btsplayer@yahoo.com Are you saying that double headers used to count as 2 games if you had a selection that got a hit in each game of a DH? And if so when did they change it to this only count as 1 game which is stupid and awful. I started playing in 2009 so I don’t know about what happened several years ago.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It used to be that if your player was in a DH, he only had to get a hit in either game to advance your streak 1 game.

Not sure if that was the case for the HR or Survivor contest though.

When Survivor was overhauled in 2008, they changed the DH rule, which is why most view the 48-game run in 2008 as being the best ever, since the 49-game run was under the old DH rule.

Of course, it is possible that the 49-game run did not contain any DH picks, but I am unsure if anyone has access to all 49 of his picks.

With the last game going final, we have just 65 people left in contention for $10,000.

For Dave: Could you tell us how many hits the 43-game leaders collected in their streaks, so we can tell if some of the fringe players will be able to win that tiebreaker?

Anyone know if Emilio Bonifacio is starting today?

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