Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, August 4-6

So ‘member a few weeks back when @MLB faced off in that BTS Battle Royale against Stephen Colbert?

He won, @MLB lost and there was much embarrassment and shame around BTS headquarters. Heads were rolled and stern lectures were given (Youkilis against Big Game James? Really???).

Well, now Mr. Colbert is cashing in on his victory. As promised, the keys to @MLB are in his hands for 24 hours beginning Friday at 12 AM.

Follow along right here — he could say literally anything.

___________________

Friday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Corey Hart: .545 AVG (6-for-11) since ’06 vs. Astros starter J.A. Happ

Melky Cabrera: .625 AVG (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Rick Porcello

Matt Holliday: .625 AVG (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez

Feeling kinda spicy?

Angel Pagan: .500 AVG (79-for-18) since ’06 vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson

You’ll thank me later …

Justin Upton: .182 AVG (6-for-33) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley

Joey Votto: .190 AVG (4-for-21) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster

Home Run BTS pick:

Prince Fielder: (24 HR this season) vs. Astros starter J.A. Happ
___________________
Saturday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Emilio Bonifacio: .714 AVG (5-for-7) since ’06 vs. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter

Todd Helton: .423 AVG (11-for-26) since ’06 vs. Nationals starter Livan Hernandez

Marlon Byrd: .625 AVG (5-for-8) since ’06 vs. Reds starter Johnny Cueto

Feeling kinda spicy?

Jorge Posada: .476 AVG (10-for-21) since ’06 vs. Red Sox starter John Lackey

You’ll thank me later …

Alex Gordon: .148 AVG (4-for-27) since ’06 vs. Tigers starter Justin Verlander

David Wright: .083 AVG (1-for-16) since ’06 vs. Braves starter Tommy Hanson

Home Run BTS pick:

Paul Konerko: (25 HR this season) vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano
___________________

Sunday’s picks:

(Make a BTS pick)

Oh, hello there …

Miguel Cabrera: .500 AVG (8-for-16) since ’06 vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen

Michael Cuddyer: .451 AVG (23-for-51) since ’06 vs. White Sox starter John Danks

David Ortiz: .417 AVG (7-for-17) since ’06 vs. Yankees starter Freddy Garcia

Feeling kinda spicy?

Mike Aviles: .636 AVG (7-for-11) since ’06 vs. Yankees starter Freddy Garcia

You’ll thank me later …

• Lance Berkman: .100 AVG (1-for-10) since ’06 vs. Marlins starter Javier Vazquez

Justin Upton: .000 AVG (0-for-13) since ’06 vs. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw

Home Run BTS pick:

Josh Hamilton: (13 HR this season) vs. Indians starter Josh Tomlin


Top MLB streakers 

Dan Uggla: 25 games

Freddie Freeman: 18 games

Adrian Gonzalez: 14 games

Ryan Zimmerman: 13 games

83 Comments

Going back to old Faithful, Adrian G. vs Colon. 30% of the way to 5.6 mil…sigh..

Another weekend upon us. If history repeats itself, as it usually does in BTS, going to be a lot of people that may give up on BTS this year after the upcoming, unexpected, resets/slaughters. Weekends are generally not very forgiving. We shall see…

C. Hart for 19.

As was the case yesterday; we’re in the same game, same team, but different players

Votto-bot for 6

Votto? What about this stat?:
• Joey Votto: .190 AVG (4-for-21) since ’06 vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster

I know.

If we all went by stats alone, and stats were always reliable, everyone would have 57-gamers in 1st 57 days. Stats are just a ‘tool’ to help make a decision. Also one must look at the time frame for these stats: 5 years. How someone batted 5 years ago is not usually indicative of how he will bat this year or even this week. For example: Votto is just 1-8 this year vs Dempster (even worse than his 5-year avg). And sometimes you need to consider their recent streakiness: on a 9-game streak batting over 400 for past 7 days. Don’t forget about the pitcher’s recent history either: Dempster averaging 7 hits per game over last 3 games. So on one hand, looks dismal, but recent history looks to be a good advantage. After doing the research, the decision is always a personal one

Totally agree, just was unsure if they had see that stat.

With above said, I wouldn’t risk my streak on Votto today. But that’s my personal choice

91-291 vs RHP this season = 313avg
70-202 on road this season= 347avg
53-150 during day =353avg.
16 hits in last 9 games.

I’m taking my chances.

when you put it that way, sounds like a solid pick, nice research

thanks, and he could go 1-9 for all i care, as long as he gets the 1.

GL Mark, maybe we’ll both get thru the weekend unscathed.
For every positive stat, one can find a negative stat & vice versa. People are willing to give some stats more importance than others; thereby making each choice personal. On the other hand, you have people like my wife, who makes picks without knowing anything about baseball and does fairly well

At least Dempster is out now..Votto’s got 1-2 more AB against the pen

Right now due up 4th in the 9th. Need one batter to hit or walk for him to get up again.

Due up 2nd in 9th.

Gonna sound really selfish: But here’s hoping Votto gets a homer. Got CIN in SFTC today

Matt Holliday to get to 4.
side note: watch Michael Young, he only needs 5 hits to reach 2000 and the rangers are at home for the next six

but Ubaldo pitching in his debut for CLE tonight.

2500 post will be a little late this afternoon, have to actually go out and do some work but i’ll run it as soon as game locks in 20.

LaV’s List
Friday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
136 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Adrian Gonzalez 359 14.51 (4TH)(4TH)
Corey Hart 218 8.81 (4TH)
Matt Holliday 195 7.88
Albert Pujols 134 5.41 (1RST)
Ryan Braun 134 5.41
Miguel Cabrera 107 4.32
Prince Fielder 104 4.2
Omar Infante 92 3.72
Melky Cabrera 90 3.64
Joey Votto 71 2.87
Jacoby Ellsbury 55 2.22 (2ND)
No Selection 40 1.62
Rickie Weeks 5 0.20 (3RD) DL
——————————————-

Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 8 with streak of 17 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 10.07% with PEDROIA reseting the most.
There was also 11.06% PPD due to players not playing, These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either,
9.45% —> 234 picks of these were intentional DL/inj picks.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1/2 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 2 AB or Less)
——————————————–
J Peralta DET, RESET 4, WERE 13,11,11,10 GAMERS
M Ordonez DET, RESET 1, WAS 12 GAMER
R Johnson CHC, SAVED 1, DEF SWITCH, WAS 13 GAMER
S Smith COL, RESET 1, WAS 12 GAMER
A Soriano CHC, RESET 1, DEF SWITCH, WAS 11 GAMER
——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
gpearson17, 18, pg 5, 94, HART (PICKED 218X)
box86rowh, 17, pg 8, 178, A-GONE (PICKED 359X)
jonhilliard, 17, pg 9, 178, PRINCE (PICKED 104X)
trixiewright, 13, pg 41, 715, MARKAKIS (PICKED 2X)
——————————————-

Bloggers Reset Yesterday
NONE
GL to all
M

——————————————-

Pick of the day may have done the leader in? Pujols & Holliday are/were picks of the day today when I looked last nite. But the stats were for a different pitcher. Pujols vs. A.Sanchez: 1-8. I think either Vazquez or Nolasco were originally scheduled for today. Change occurred couple days ago & when pitching changes occur, “picks of the day” don’t update (at least I haven’t seen them update)

When I saw both Holliday and Pujols as picks of the day I checked out the St. Louis picks and Holliday’s numbers were slightly better then what was listed but Pujols was only .125 against Sanchez. I took Holliday but he walked on his 1st PA.

Holliday Homers! :)

$@)(;&$;&@%}{^^##} cmon extras.

I went with Billy Butler tonight against Rick Porcello at home to get me to 4 games.

I wanted Melky today, but weather forecast scared me off to indoors. Appears bad weather is going to miss the game after all

New Beat the Streak contest started today:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/btsrp/y2011/splash_index.jsp

Unfortunately, I thought it was just an advertisement for the blog this morning, so I did not get a pick in this morning.

I know it is early, but it is hard to imagine someone not getting 15 saves in a row, right off the bat, so I may be out of contention already.

Getting 15 in a row may not be an issue, but how many days can pass between saves? That’s the question I think. 1) Have to figure out which team may win 2) Need to be lucky enough again to be in a save situation. I don’t know the rules, site is down right now for me

Just read over the rules. A game that doubleheaders may actually help you instead of hurting you. What are odds that a closer will come into each game in a save situation – low. Giving it a shot for tomorrow, why not?

Hart with the HR. That’s 19 for me.

About time; now all Brewers starters have hits today (pitchers excluded). Funny how sometimes your pick can’t get hit off the easy guy & manages one off the pen. Good job; get thru the weekend & we should see you on page #1

19 was my high before I came crashing down. Don’t get cocky, and GL!

Oh, I’m aware of a.) how much luck is involved and b.) how far I have to go. Cockiness is certainly not an issue for me!

I know, I’m just saying be careful. I was going so good and then it ended.

7th-inning single by Butler moves me to 4!

Five on the first page at serious risk of a Gonzalez o-fer.

the weekend shake up has begun — votto 0-for-3, JReyes 0-for-4, AGonzalez 0-for-4

well, it was fun while it lasted…knew I shoulda picked Ellsbury..lol

I have Cano going for 20. I picked him only once all year, and it was either a DNP or rainout.

3 for 3 you and me. Rhymes too. Got same game, same team, but different players yet again. Been lucky for us so far

I went with Josh Hamilton of the Rangers tonight against Fausto Carmona of the Indians.

I got burned the last time I went up against Carmona, but the overall picture looks pretty strong.

It is usually good if there is at least one flaw in the pick anyway, as “perfect” picks tend to have a pretty poor performance record.

i stayed with holliday to get to five. he has been on fire the past week

went with Yonder Alonso and he’s good. Actually comtemplated him yesterday too.

LaV’s List
Saturday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500,
139 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Prince Fielder 314 12.69
Jose Reyes 222 8.97
Josh Hamilton 189 7.64
Robinson Cano 129 5.21
Joey Votto 112 4.53
Jose Bautista 88 3.56
Ryan Braun 86 3.47 (1RST)
Omar Infante 80 3.23 DL
Matt Holliday 76 3.07
Curtis Grandrsn 74 2.99
Miguel Cabrera 70 2.83
Dustin Pedroia 37 1.49 (2ND)
No Selection 36 1.45
Yuneal Escobar 9 0.36 (3RD)
Rickie Weeks 7 0.28 (3RD) DL
——————————————-

Highest “No Selection” :P pg# 8 with streak of 17 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 29.03% with A-GONE reseting the most.
There was also 8.79% PPD due to players not playing, These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either,
7.14% —> 177 picks of these were intentional DL/inj picks.
——————————————–

Got Pinched OR 1/2 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 2 AB or Less)
——————————————–
NONE
——————————————–

Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick, (Times picked in top2500)
gpearson17, 19, pg 4, 63, CANO (PICKED 129X)
jonhilliard, 18, pg 5, 107, FIELDER (PICKED 314X)
trixiewright, 14, pg 27, 451, MORSE (PICKED 4X)
Dave55, 10, pg 79, 1923, BRAUN (PICKED 86X)
——————————————-

Bloggers Reset Yesterday
box86rowh, 17 RESET by A-GONE
GL to all
M

——————————————-

F@$& you, Joey Votto. You couldn’t have done that yesterday?

I think every BTS player here can empathize.

Getting nervous about Cano. At least one shot (maybe two) against the Red Sox bullpen.

You need 4 more baserunners without any caught stealings or double plays to get Cano his 5th PA.

And just I post that, Granderson grounds into an inning-ending double play.

Considering you have, most likely, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon for the next 2 innings, I think the chances of getting 5 total baserunners over 2 innings is unlikely.

So it comes down to 1 last shot in the 8th.

Gardner got met an infield hit. So, your hit is just 1/2 inning away… Rabbits feet, get ‘em out

Definitely get them rabbits feet out. Bard is coming into the 8th. Cano is 0-4 lifetime.
P.S. Game is aired on MLB network

Oh, crap…

Cano is due up 6th in the 9th.

I think Papelbon walking 1 and giving up 1 hit is possible, but giving up 4 baserunners is unlikely.

Hart just got a line-drive single off the 1st pitch thrown in the game too.

It must suck not having stayed with the guy who got you to 19 games.

Had you considered using him at all today?

I never pick the same guy twice in a row because I almost never get a hit. I did consider both Granderson and Jeter though.

I don’t like doing so either, but I am willing to do so if there is a big drop off between that player and the next best option.

You might wanna root for the Red Sox to score at least a run in the bottom of the 8th inning.

You might get an easier reliever in the 9th inning, if it is not a save situation.

Someone like Dan Wheeler? good start as Cervelli smacks a double.

I guess I’ll have to go for the $10,000 starting tomorrow…

lol, is MLB Network’s feed coming in faster than FOX?

The game literally just ended and your resigning post was already up there.

So similar to Mark’s (mdrossi) 19-gamer a few days ago. His hitter left on deck also

Since my streak ended, I’ve been able to get only 1 hit. Hmmm.

YES!!!

An Ian Kinsler walk and Elvis Andrus single after 2 outs to start the bottom of the 9th inning, get my pick, Josh Hamilton his 5th PA of the game and DELIVERS with an infield single!

This keeps me in contention for the $5.6 million and moves me onto 5!

I am sooo pumped right now!

OH YES!!!

A bit of luck is all any of us needs. Though an extra 7.6% reset would’ve been nice ;)

Going with Yonder Alonso again today, as long as he’s starting. Think Votto will be highly picked with Wells on the mound for Cubs.

Not gonna be able to run stats today. Forgot my memory stick at work yesterday.
Keith if you want to run them then I’ll add the reset rate and other stuff later today.

I ran it yesterday so got stats for then. Will post it today

Excellent. Ty sir.

Votto probably well picked today but I expect Miggy to be most picked. I’m going with Votto or Bruce today since I always pick against Wells.

Sunday’s Top Picks of the current Top2500, 137 batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Miguel Cabrera 345 13.94 (Leader)
Michael Cuddyer 203 8.2
Adrian Gonzalez 148 5.98
Ryan Braun 114 4.61
David Ortiz 106 4.28
Matt Holliday 106 4.28
Albert Pujols 94 3.8
Jacoby Ellsbury 79 3.19 (runner up)
Jose Reyes 74 2.99
Martin Prado 70 2.83
Joey Votto 63 2.55
Omar Infante 54 2.18 (DL)
Starlin Castro 51 2.06
Michael Young 48 1.94
Michael Morse 45 1.82
No Selection 45 1.82
Highest “No Selection”: Pg #1 with streak of 22 back to zero :P
Yesterday’s reset rate was 13.64% with R.Cano resetting the most
——————————————–
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
Top2500 saved or reset by PH or defensive switch, 2 ABs or less
R.Hanigan PH RESET 2: 12,11-gamers
J.Heyward PH RESET 1: 11-gamer
J.Jay PH SAVED 1: 13-gamer
——————————————–
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
jonhilliard, 19, pg 4, J.Ellsbury (picked 79x)
trixiewright, 15, pg 22, B.Butler (picked 5x)
Dave55, 11, pg 65, M.Cuddyer (picked 203x)
jzlevin, 10, pg 100+, J.Ellsbury (picked 79x)
Top2500 Bloggers Reset Yesterday
gpearson17 @ 19 reset by R.Cano

Reyes comes out of the game 0-1. Bad luck for those that picked him

wow three people on the first page just got screwed with him coming out

I have Miguel Cabrera to get me to six

Albert Pujols for 6 :)

BTS gods demanded sacrifice Friday, but favored streakers yesterday. Today is looking to be another day of sacrifice. Nearing a 30% reset rate and several highly picked hitters still to play tonight.

With Ellsbury 0-fer today; all four of the Bloggers Group Top2500 members are gone. High reset will probably allow 9-gamers back into the Top2500 tomorrow.

Couple notable injuries today. Beltran (was my pick for tomorrow) has sprained wrist. Reyes has tight hammy

Daniel Murphy on the METS out for season, torn ACL

Not sure how to take that inning.

The Scutaro double took the bat out of Ellsbury’s hands, but it allowed the Red Sox to tie the game and he will get up again if the Red Sox can get the game to the 11th inning and muster just 1 baserunner over those 2 innings.

And should the game go to the 13th inning or later, I can get 2+ more plate appearances.

I would love an EXPLANATION over why Mo had to come out of the game after 9 pitches with an off-day tomorrow!!!

If he stays in the game, he most likely pitches a scoreless 10th inning and then Ellsbury gets up in the 11th inning.

What a royal screw job to eliminate me from contention of $5.6 million!

Most likely, everyone will be eliminated from the big bucks before season ends; some sooner than others. Looking over past “all time streak leaders”, 2006 was last time the year ended with high streak at just 40, though getting 41+ is still possible for all for the time being. This has not been a very good year for anyone except the 40-gamer (so far).

Going with who I meant to pick yesterday (before I started overanalyzing): Marlon Byrd.

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